2018 AFL

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bailey Clark is the only Cub playing the AFL All-Star Game. It'll be on Saturday on the MLB Network.

 

Not sure what Giambrone and Hoerner did to get snubbed.

 

You can vote Nico in:

[Regular Show]

Bailey Clark is the only Cub playing the AFL All-Star Game. It'll be on Saturday on the MLB Network.

 

Not sure what Giambrone and Hoerner did to get snubbed.

 

You can vote Nico in:

 

Nico is most definitely getting into the game now. This vote shouldn't even be close.

[Regular Show]

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[CubinNY]

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?

[Regular Show]

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?

 

 

I can't tell if you're making fun of me or being earnest...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?

 

He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu.

[CubinNY]

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?

 

 

I can't tell if you're making fun of me or being earnest...

earnest. I haven't followed the minor leagues closely since 2015.

[Regular Show]

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?

 

He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu.

 

Yeah, he definitely doesn't have the upside of Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I think it comes down to how much power he'll ultimately develop. I was down on the pick on draft night because there were still some high upside pitchers available. I didn't realize Nico would be this good with the bat.

 

I don't care about lineup construction too much, but he could be our long-term solution at leadoff as a high-average/high-OBP guy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10/29:

 

DH T. Giambrone 2/2, 2 BB

SS N. Hoerner 0/4, K

C PJ Higgins 1/3, BB

LF DJ Wilson 0/4, 4 K

RP M. Rondón 0/2 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GO-FO, 31-16 pitches-strikes

 

 

 

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1054031458778656768[/tweet]

Somehow missed this one. Talks about Vlad Jr. in the beginning and how he'll have to move off 3B eventually. 1B/DH is his future. Talks about how bored he looks out there and is trying to have fun/take big swings to entertain the crowds.

 

Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele is one of the few potential starting pitching prospects in the system, and he showed a little better velocity in his outing Thursday. Steele was throwing a 91-95 mph fastball and a solid-average curveball at 79-81 that he landed for strikes while also flashing a changeup that was too firm. Steele threw 50 innings this year in his rehab and return from 2017 Tommy John surgery, so it's a positive step to see that velocity again.

 

The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.

 

These are the only Cubs prospects he talks about (no report on Giambrone). Not a glowing opinion on Hoerner from Keith Law. I think he's an average to slightly above-average runner. Looks pretty fast on film. I mean you can measure this by clocking his time to first. I'm surprised he doesn't mention the swing or hit tool. Again, maybe this report was from early in the AFL? Doesn't mention the arm or how he rates it. He mentions a bunch of other prospects in the article.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10/30:

 

C J. Pereda 1/3, R, BB, K; defense: 2/5 CS

SP J. Steele 2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1-0 GO-FO, 44-26 pitches-strikes

[Hrubes20]

The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.

 

Law is far from alone in thinking that Hoerner doesn't have much in the way of a power, arm, or defense tool. But speed? Below-average? That's just flat out wrong; to the point where I wonder if he was watching the right player.

[Cubswin11]

The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.

 

Law is far from alone in thinking that Hoerner doesn't have much in the way of a power, arm, or defense tool. But speed? Below-average? That's just flat out wrong; to the point where I wonder if he was watching the right player.

Hey, Keith Law said what he said and made a proclamation. He isn’t backing down now.

[Bull]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1054031458778656768[/tweet]

Somehow missed this one. Talks about Vlad Jr. in the beginning and how he'll have to move off 3B eventually. 1B/DH is his future. Talks about how bored he looks out there and is trying to have fun/take big swings to entertain the crowds.

 

Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele is one of the few potential starting pitching prospects in the system, and he showed a little better velocity in his outing Thursday. Steele was throwing a 91-95 mph fastball and a solid-average curveball at 79-81 that he landed for strikes while also flashing a changeup that was too firm. Steele threw 50 innings this year in his rehab and return from 2017 Tommy John surgery, so it's a positive step to see that velocity again.

 

The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.

 

These are the only Cubs prospects he talks about (no report on Giambrone). Not a glowing opinion on Hoerner from Keith Law. I think he's an average to slightly above-average runner. Looks pretty fast on film. I mean you can measure this by clocking his time to first. I'm surprised he doesn't mention the swing or hit tool. Again, maybe this report was from early in the AFL? Doesn't mention the arm or how he rates it. He mentions a bunch of other prospects in the article.

So Mike Fontenot?

[Cubswin11]

Without any times or anything to work with, maybe Hoener looks faster than he is thanks to shorter strides + some good old fashioned benefit of doubt due to TWTW/GRIT?

Fangraphs has him as a 70/70 on speed. I’d assume that’s based on some numbers they have access to or talked to guys about and this is likely Law just going all in one way on a guy that he does often.

[Hrubes20]

So Mike Fontenot?

 

I honestly get Fontenot vibes from Giambrone.

[Hrubes20]

Without any times or anything to work with, maybe Hoener looks faster than he is thanks to shorter strides + some good old fashioned benefit of doubt due to TWTW/GRIT?

 

IIRC, he was timed around 4.1 home to 1st once he started playing after the draft. That's easily solidly above average and borderline plus. Francisco Lindor is in that range. I believe major league average for a RH batter is a little over 4.3, but my memory could be wrong.

[Cubswin11]

Fangraphs has him as a 70/70 on speed. I’d assume that’s based on some numbers they have access to or talked to guys about and this is likely Law just going all in one way on a guy that he does often.

 

You guys know how I feel about rankings and those scouting grades! As far as I can tell this and Law’s claims are both heavily subjective

 

Honestly can’t say I’m impressed by the few things that have come out of the AFL on Hoerner. He’s been pushed yada yada but the tools seem second division

There's been better reports on Nico since he started, hasn't there? He got out to an awful start (which we think is when Law saw him) but there's been some better things said about him as its gone on and he's performed well. I don't think he's ever going to be a great player, but think he can be a first division starter especially on his rookie deal as like your ~5th best position player. I could see him being somewhere around what Brandon Crawford or Chris Taylor were this year with maybe a little more contact/BA and less HR's (but maybe more 2Bs to keep the SLG up), which if he can stick at SS and be a neutralist defender that's plenty valuable.

[Hrubes20]

Fangraphs has him as a 70/70 on speed. I’d assume that’s based on some numbers they have access to or talked to guys about and this is likely Law just going all in one way on a guy that he does often.

 

You guys know how I feel about rankings and those scouting grades! As far as I can tell this and Law’s claims are both heavily subjective

 

Honestly can’t say I’m impressed by the few things that have come out of the AFL on Hoerner. He’s been pushed yada yada but the tools seem second division

 

Being clocked at 4.1 isn't subjective. That's borderline plus speed from a RH hitter.

 

I am probably with you on most of Hoerner's tools being 2nd division though. The hope is that the 45 power turns into 55 down the road with launch angle stuff, and that the speed/instincts will allow the 50 arm to stay at SS. There's also the hope that the 55 bat can slightly bump up to 60. We aren't talking about a superstar even if everything aligns perfectly, but the sum of the parts is a 1st division starter with some luck and good player development.

[Regular Show]

Fangraphs has him as a 70/70 on speed. I’d assume that’s based on some numbers they have access to or talked to guys about and this is likely Law just going all in one way on a guy that he does often.

 

You guys know how I feel about rankings and those scouting grades! As far as I can tell this and Law’s claims are both heavily subjective

 

Honestly can’t say I’m impressed by the few things that have come out of the AFL on Hoerner. He’s been pushed yada yada but the tools seem second division

 

Being clocked at 4.1 isn't subjective. That's borderline plus speed from a RH hitter.

 

I am probably with you on most of Hoerner's tools being 2nd division though. The hope is that the 45 power turns into 55 down the road with launch angle stuff, and that the speed/instincts will allow the 50 arm to stay at SS. There's also the hope that the 55 bat can slightly bump up to 60. We aren't talking about a superstar even if everything aligns perfectly, but the sum of the parts is a 1st division starter with some luck and good player development.

 

Yeah, I agree with that assessment. It's just hard to know what the final product will look like or how he'll develop over the next couple years. He might get instruction/guidance on how to field better/make his arm stronger/alter his swing and use his lower-half to hit for more power. He should get a little bit stronger naturally as he matures, but he's pretty close to physically maxed out.

 

Also, the most important tool for me for a position player is the hit tool. You have to hit (or be crazy good defensively) to stick in the big leagues and sometimes plus hitters develop some game power that goes beyond their raw power. No one projected Mookie Betts or Jose Altuve to have this much power. They certainly don't show it during BP. If Hoerner's hit tool is really special maybe the power comes down the road. Also, launch angle stuff can help like in Bote's case, but I don't want to mess with his swing.

 

Last thing is speed can be measured, but I didn't have a time and I haven't seen one online. A 4.1 time to first is very good and matches what I saw on film. Should be rated a plus in running if that's his normal time. Also, seems like a better runner underway once he gets going like KB. I don't expect him to be a prolific basestealer but maybe his instincts are really good.

 

We'll have a better idea next year once he gets promoted (or starts the season) to AA.

Edited October 31, 2018 by Regular Show

[Hrubes20]

 

Last thing is speed can be measured, but I didn't have a time and I haven't seen one online. A 4.1 time to first is very good and matches what I saw on film. Should be rated a plus in running if that's his normal time. Also, seems like a better runner underway once he gets going like KB. I don't expect him to be a prolific basestealer but maybe his instincts are really good.

 

We'll have a better idea next year once he gets promoted (or starts the season) to AA.

 

I knew I had read the 4.1 somewhere. Apparently it was "consistently 4.1-4.2". Even at 4.2, Law's version of "below average" is ridiculous.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-nico-hoerner/

[Regular Show]

 

Last thing is speed can be measured, but I didn't have a time and I haven't seen one online. A 4.1 time to first is very good and matches what I saw on film. Should be rated a plus in running if that's his normal time. Also, seems like a better runner underway once he gets going like KB. I don't expect him to be a prolific basestealer but maybe his instincts are really good.

 

We'll have a better idea next year once he gets promoted (or starts the season) to AA.

 

I knew I had read the 4.1 somewhere. Apparently it was "consistently 4.1-4.2". Even at 4.2, Law's version of "below average" is ridiculous.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-nico-hoerner/

 

I want to talk to some scouts and ask them what his normal range is because 4.2-4.1 time to first for a RHH is actually plus to plus-plus (70) territory and I'm not sure Hoerner is that fast.

 

Maybe Law just caught him on a bad day? I like Law's scouting reports and he's generally very good. I think I only disagree with his notes/scouting reports occasionally and it's usually over a draft prospect.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nico won the fan vote and will be playing in the AFL all star game Saturday, which will air on MLB Network.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A quick perusal of the draft forum for pre-draft coverage showed MLB.com said Hoerner ran “fairly well” and PG said he ran “above average” at the Cape.

[Regular Show]

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