2018 AFL

[Hrubes20]

CubsDen was citing StatCast data now? I find it a little fishy that you laid down the StatCast blanket but in the end ended up hand timing Youtube clips

 

I compared velocity and running speed only in their ability to be measured reliably in a given outing, perhaps explaining Law’s updated take. Common sense says a handful of times will be less reliable than the dozens of individual reads a pitcher offers. Can you confirm StatCast was doing the leg work for CubsDen, however they managed to get that data?

 

BTW stating my own observation is not using or citing anthing, quit reaching here. It’s not so wild to not blindly believe a Cubs prospect blog with a little bit of a homer reputation citing likely their own numbers that happen to pump up a shiny new Cubs prospect.

 

End of the day, Law’s easily the higher source on prospects between the two for a wider perspective and his overall eval falls more in line with what could be reasonably expected based on Hoerner’s performances and pedigeee, so I’m giving his observations more weight. If Hoerner bumps it up next year while pro evaluators get a full season look at him against pros then he bumps it up next year, also not unprecedented.

 

Statcast was mentioned only in generalities as to how easily speed was identifiable, and was only done once you tried to make the erronious comparison to pitching velocity. I do not claim, nor have I, that we have public Statcast times for Hoerner. I'm sure CubsDen hand-timed Nico, as I did.

 

Re: the bolded - Yet it would still be wrong, assuming the handful of times are ones in which the runner isn't stumbling or that it's not raining. 3 non-stumbling times on a dry surface is probably all you need. Speed just doesn't fluctuate in a healthy 21 year old. That's why they give participants 2 tries in the 40 yd dash at the NFL combine. It's realized and identified very, very quickly.

 

You specifically stated that you are backing Law on Hoerner's speed (again, I think he meant baserunning in general) based on your observations. How is that anything but "using" your amateur scouting opinion? That's the exact opposite of a reach, which I don't need to do in this discussion. And I very clearly stated that I have done my own times in his videos. My results mirrored those of CubsDen. Please tell me how doing my own work is "blindly believing a Cubs prospect blog". Throw in the fact that literally every other scouting report on Hoerner, predraft or postdraft,

 

I absolutely agree that Law's scouting reports on a prospect should be given weight; and on things that aren't objectively identifiable, he should be believed over amateurs. But when Law is blatantly wrong (running with your assumption that he meant speed) on something that is and can be identified objectively, you can safely ignore it. This is doubly so when literally every other scouting report is to the contrary, including the predraft one by Law himself. It's like believing the 1 scientific study that says humans aren't contributing to climate change over the objective evidence and 100's of other reports that say humans are contributing. Like I said before, you've chosen a bad hill to die on.

 

Your last sentence has me scratching me head as well. Please name one player without leg injuries or weight gain that was universally given above average to plus speed grades predraft, dropped to below average speed 4 months later, and then somehow found the speed back the next year? You claim it's unprecedented, so I genuinely am curious. Other tools? Sure. But not speed.

[CubsWin]

Take it PMs at this point or start a new topic. Title it "Is Nico Hoerner Fast?" or something. I mean, for Pete's sake, check the horse every now and then to see if it's still breathing...

[Regular Show]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

On Erick Leal’s strong AFL: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/erick-leal-makes-it-5-straight-scoreless-starts-in-afl/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Today’s Mesa game will be on MLB Network at 7 pm CT. I hope we get some more Nico action.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Today’s Mesa game will be on MLB Network at 7 pm CT. I hope we get some more Nico action.

 

 

Hoerner is batting second at short, Giambrone is batting third and playing third and Higgins is catching and batting 8th. The game is about to start.

[Cubswin11]

[Hrubes20]

Take it PMs at this point or start a new topic. Title it "Is Nico Hoerner Fast?" or something. I mean, for Pete's sake, check the horse every now and then to see if it's still breathing...

 

Fair enough.

 

Re: Leal - I haven't gotten a look at him in the AFL. Is his 9 BBs in 17.1 IP due to him burying a bunch of curves and trying to get swings and misses, or is he just trying to nibble too much with a mediocre at best fastball?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had a top 12 AFL prospects list. Nico didn’t make it for some reason (come on, I’d rather have Nico than Peter Alonso) but he did make the AFL Prospects on the Rise list:

 

AFL Prospects On The Rise

 

The Arizona Fall League provides an excellent opportunity for players to increase their prospect status and their odds of earning a spot on their organization’s 40-man roster. The players listed in this section are not necessarily the next eight top prospects, but rather a sampling of players who used the AFL season to boost their prospect stock.

 

Nico Hoerner, SS, Mesa (Cubs) — Hoerner was a rarity in the AFL this year as a player assigned to the league in his draft year after only 14 professional games. The Cubs first-rounder was anything but overmatched, as Hoerner showed feel to hit along with good all-around defensive skills.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-mlb-prospects-at-the-2018-arizona-fall-league/

[Thunderbolt_47]

The thing is that I don't think they added Nco into the main list because he's a rising star. There's less "content" to analyse in order to measure his talents, and because of that, they're not sure whether they could add him or not.

He may well make it into next year's list though!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Their top 12 was:

 

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr

2. Forrest Whitley

3. Christian Pache

4. Jazz Chisholm

5. Keston Hiura

6. Luis Robert

7. Taylor Trammell

8. Carter Kieboom

9. JB Bukauskas

10. Jon Duplantier

11. Nate Pearson

12. Peter Alonso

[Hrubes20]

Their top 12 was:

 

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr

2. Forrest Whitley

3. Christian Pache

4. Jazz Chisholm

5. Keston Hiura

6. Luis Robert

7. Taylor Trammell

8. Carter Kieboom

9. JB Bukauskas

10. Jon Duplantier

11. Nate Pearson

12. Peter Alonso

 

Chisholm above Hiura? That's way too rich for me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Callis has Hoerner as the 13th best AFL prospect [ahead of Alonso, Duplantier and Bukauskas, but behind Keibert Ruiz (didn’t qualify for BA’s list), Lucius Fox and Cole Tucker]:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-vlad-jr-leads-2018-afl-top-25-list/c-301075896?tid=151437456

 

13. Nico Hoerner, SS, Mesa (Cubs No. 6)

A first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in June, Hoerner has outstanding bat-to-ball skills, sneaky power (he tied for the AFL lead with four triples) and plus speed. His average arm may land him at second base, with one scout comparing him to Ian Kinsler.