Midseason Assessment (aka - what do we need at the deadline?)

[Tim]

Why Noah and not deGrom?

Lower price, supposedly

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why Noah and not deGrom?

 

I assume it's because Thor is 4 years younger and has an extra year of team control.

 

 

My exhaustive 5 minutes of paging through Fangraphs makes me want to go big with a reliever acquisition or not bother for anything that's not a guy picked up for basically nothing. Treinen/Lucroy would be an intriguing combo, taking Lucroy's money is a non-zero benefit for Oakland, but Treinen has been incredible, has great stuff, and 2.5 years of team control so I could see the price tag being high enough to require someone from the MLB roster. Otherwise I don't have strong enough feelings about anyone in the minor league system to feel bad about that deal.

[Regular Show]

Okay, I'm bored on an off day. Let's do this. I'm going to assume that all the teams I want to fall out of the race actually fall out. I'm also going to assume the Cubs give up on staying under the salary cap given the opportunities.

 

1) Oakland looks at the standings and punts. They're way down behind the Mariners and NYY for the wildcard (7 games). Billy is never afraid to pull the trigger and works well with Theo/Jed. He also values certain types of players that we can actually spare.

 

Treinen/Lucroy for Caratini/Bote/ODLC/Swarmer

 

 

2) Cubs scouts buy into the huge bump in Conley's stuff out of the pen. We get him for cheap because Jeter.

 

Conley for Robinson/Rosario

 

 

3) The Mets are ready to deal an ace. The Cubs unload the farm for Syndergaard. Once away from the Mets training staff, he stays much healthier.

 

Syndergaard for Happ/Lange/Marquez/Maples

 

 

4) Washington falls further behind while playing 21 of 24 games against losing teams. They face the inevitable and trade Harper to his future team. In return, they get a mixture of arms. For two months of Harper, it's a decent return.

 

Harper for Alzolay/Little/Swarmer

 

---------------------

 

So, we now look like this:

 

RF - Harper (that's right - leadoff!)

3B - Bryant

1B - Rizzo

C - Contreras (spelled by Lucroy batting down in the order)

LF - Schwarber

2B - Baez

CF - Heyward/Almora

SS - Russell

 

With Zobrist giving rest days to everyone based on matchups and Lucroy, Tommy and Heyward/Almora on the bench.

 

 

Syndergaard

Lester

Darvish

Quintana

Hendricks

Chatwood

Monty

 

Those seven guys play Dodger games with the DL & partial six man rotation through the regular season. Basically six of them active at any given time.

 

Morrow

Treinen

Cishek

Strop

Edwards

Wilson

Conley

Bass (gets sent down when Smyly is ready)

 

Super pen formed.

 

Where to begin lol? First off, you have Swarmer being sent out twice...

 

You have him in the deal for Harper and in the deal for Treinen/Lucroy. I guess you see some of the pieces as interchangeable, but it's still weird. I like your optimism but the only semi-realistic deal is the first package you listed for Treinen/Lucroy. I know you're just doing this for fun, but let's be a little more serious.

 

I mean I'm surprised you didn't have us making a deal of Mike Trout for Almora/Happ/Carl Edwards Jr./Amaya/THE Zach Short...

[Tim]

After watching today's game...never mind about Conley.

[Tim]

Okay, I'm bored on an off day. Let's do this. I'm going to assume that all the teams I want to fall out of the race actually fall out. I'm also going to assume the Cubs give up on staying under the salary cap given the opportunities.

 

1) Oakland looks at the standings and punts. They're way down behind the Mariners and NYY for the wildcard (7 games). Billy is never afraid to pull the trigger and works well with Theo/Jed. He also values certain types of players that we can actually spare.

 

Treinen/Lucroy for Caratini/Bote/ODLC/Swarmer

 

 

2) Cubs scouts buy into the huge bump in Conley's stuff out of the pen. We get him for cheap because Jeter.

 

Conley for Robinson/Rosario

 

 

3) The Mets are ready to deal an ace. The Cubs unload the farm for Syndergaard. Once away from the Mets training staff, he stays much healthier.

 

Syndergaard for Happ/Lange/Marquez/Maples

 

 

4) Washington falls further behind while playing 21 of 24 games against losing teams. They face the inevitable and trade Harper to his future team. In return, they get a mixture of arms. For two months of Harper, it's a decent return.

 

Harper for Alzolay/Little/Swarmer

 

---------------------

 

So, we now look like this:

 

RF - Harper (that's right - leadoff!)

3B - Bryant

1B - Rizzo

C - Contreras (spelled by Lucroy batting down in the order)

LF - Schwarber

2B - Baez

CF - Heyward/Almora

SS - Russell

 

With Zobrist giving rest days to everyone based on matchups and Lucroy, Tommy and Heyward/Almora on the bench.

 

 

Syndergaard

Lester

Darvish

Quintana

Hendricks

Chatwood

Monty

 

Those seven guys play Dodger games with the DL & partial six man rotation through the regular season. Basically six of them active at any given time.

 

Morrow

Treinen

Cishek

Strop

Edwards

Wilson

Conley

Bass (gets sent down when Smyly is ready)

 

Super pen formed.

 

Where to begin lol? First off, you have Swarmer being sent out twice...

 

You have him in the deal for Harper and in the deal for Treinen/Lucroy. I guess you see some of the pieces as interchangeable, but it's still weird. I like your optimism but the only semi-realistic deal is the first package you listed for Treinen/Lucroy. I know you're just doing this for fun, but let's be a little more serious.

 

I mean I'm surprised you didn't have us making a deal of Mike Trout for Almora/Happ/Carl Edwards Jr./Amaya/THE Zach Short...

I'm not sure what you think the Nationals are going to get for two months of Harper, but it won't be as much as you're thinking. Look at what Detroit got for JD last year, then add a bit for Harper. What I've got there is a significantly better package than that. Happ is probably a better player than anything NY is going to get for Thor. Supposedly they are not wanting to completely tear down, so they're probably okay with Happ's service time. I'm adding a first round pitcher succeeding in AA, a starter sitting at 95-97 down in Short A and a high upside reliever as a fourth piece.

 

Replace one Swarmer with a Rucker or Robinson or Abbott or whatever.

[davell]

Tim, there's other teams in baseball that would like to add. There's not a team out there that's contending, that's not going to be interested in some of these guys.

 

A Happ-led package isn't getting Thor. They'd hold onto him for longer, if that's all they could get. Throw Amaya in too, that STILL wouldn't get him. We don't have the lead piece needed to snag a guy like that.

 

As for Bryce. No way. It's not a matter of what he may or may not actually be worth via trade. It's star power and the public relations nightmare you'd cause your team by trading him. That alone makes it much, much harder to deal him. It wouldn't even be worth offering what we'd be able to, it's getting laughed at. This isn't even taking into account that they want him back next year and could easily lose a bit of leverage, if they dealt him away. Explain to your fans you just dealt away Bryce for an injured, borderline bottom of the top 100 pitching prospect? Sorry, it's just not nearly enough.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A Happ-led package isn't getting Thor. They'd hold onto him for longer, if that's all they could get. Throw Amaya in too, that STILL wouldn't get him. We don't have the lead piece needed to snag a guy like that.

 

I'm with you on the broader point(those hypothetical deals are very Cubs friendly), but this is a pet peeve of mine. Happ has shown himself to be a 3 win player with 5 years of team control. That is really freaking valuable. There exist players with more potential and less current production, and depending on the acquiring team those might be preferred(I'd argue the Mets would prefer the production), but the idea that Happ as a headliner is a non-starter is silly.

[davell]

A Happ-led package isn't getting Thor. They'd hold onto him for longer, if that's all they could get. Throw Amaya in too, that STILL wouldn't get him. We don't have the lead piece needed to snag a guy like that.

 

I'm with you on the broader point(those hypothetical deals are very Cubs friendly), but this is a pet peeve of mine. Happ has shown himself to be a 3 win player with 5 years of team control. That is really freaking valuable. There exist players with more potential and less current production, and depending on the acquiring team those might be preferred(I'd argue the Mets would prefer the production), but the idea that Happ as a headliner is a non-starter is silly.

 

I can see that. Happ is an excellent player. A 3 WAR guy is extremely solid. That said, I think you'd have to have a guy with a bit more of an upside, or perceived upside, than Happ. Not to mention, I'd let it at a top 10-15 guy, a top 50 guy, a top 10 from a solid system, and an interesting flier, to get the Mets to seriously consider moving him. And I'm not sure they'd do it then.

[Tim]

I also doubt the A's are going to trade Treinen for anything less than a king's ransom, given his performance and control remaining. That's probably the least realistic trade on the list.

 

The only realistic chance the Cubs probably have at any of the top assets likely to be on the board would be if someone overrates Albert's batting average and totally buys into his defense. But I think our management values the different look his bat brings to the lineup (and other soft values) too much to move him.

 

In the end, I think we'll make a move more towards the middle of the relief market and that's probably it.

[davell]

Theo came out today and said we're not looking for hitting. Nothing's imminent and they're still expecting most improvement to come from within, for pitching. I think they'll add 2 guys, but both just depth types. Maybe the pen arm is solid, there's lots of them out there.

[Derwood]

Tim, there's other teams in baseball that would like to add. There's not a team out there that's contending, that's not going to be interested in some of these guys.

 

A Happ-led package isn't getting Thor. They'd hold onto him for longer, if that's all they could get. Throw Amaya in too, that STILL wouldn't get him. We don't have the lead piece needed to snag a guy like that.

 

As for Bryce. No way. It's not a matter of what he may or may not actually be worth via trade. It's star power and the public relations nightmare you'd cause your team by trading him. That alone makes it much, much harder to deal him. It wouldn't even be worth offering what we'd be able to, it's getting laughed at. This isn't even taking into account that they want him back next year and could easily lose a bit of leverage, if they dealt him away. Explain to your fans you just dealt away Bryce for an injured, borderline bottom of the top 100 pitching prospect? Sorry, it's just not nearly enough.

 

What about the PR nightmare of seeing Harper walk away for nothing when you could have traded him for assets?

[Sammy Sofa]

Any answer besides a starting pitcher is some cracked out nonsense.

[davell]

Tim, there's other teams in baseball that would like to add. There's not a team out there that's contending, that's not going to be interested in some of these guys.

 

A Happ-led package isn't getting Thor. They'd hold onto him for longer, if that's all they could get. Throw Amaya in too, that STILL wouldn't get him. We don't have the lead piece needed to snag a guy like that.

 

As for Bryce. No way. It's not a matter of what he may or may not actually be worth via trade. It's star power and the public relations nightmare you'd cause your team by trading him. That alone makes it much, much harder to deal him. It wouldn't even be worth offering what we'd be able to, it's getting laughed at. This isn't even taking into account that they want him back next year and could easily lose a bit of leverage, if they dealt him away. Explain to your fans you just dealt away Bryce for an injured, borderline bottom of the top 100 pitching prospect? Sorry, it's just not nearly enough.

 

What about the PR nightmare of seeing Harper walk away for nothing when you could have traded him for assets?

 

It's a hell of a lot less than the opposite.

[soccer10k]

To get rid of Chatwood.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

To get rid of Chatwood.

 

It seems pretty obvious he’s getting a phantom DL visit before his next start.

[imb]

To get rid of Chatwood.

 

It seems pretty obvious he’s getting a phantom DL visit before his next start.

 

dang the 120 pitches really gave him shoulder fatigue what a shame looks like he needs *squints at calendar* three months on the DL

[CaliforniaRaisin]

To get rid of Chatwood.

 

It seems pretty obvious he’s getting a phantom DL visit before his next start.

 

dang the 120 pitches really gave him shoulder fatigue what a shame looks like he needs *squints at calendar* three months on the DL

 

Really frustrated Alzolay got hurt.

[Cubswin11]

Who says no first:

 

Cubs get: Britton

O's get: Dakota Mekkes, Zack Short

 

Cubs get: Stroman, Happ, Pompey

Jays get: Almora, Happ, Ademan, Marquez, Lange, De La Cruz

 

?

I absolutely do that first deal and think it should be about fair value. No horsefeathering way do I do the Stroman deal.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I'd have the Cubs send more for the first deal to try & get max IFA money. Agree w/ Cubswin no way on #2.

[Cubswin11]

I'd have the Cubs send more for the first deal to try & get max IFA money. Agree w/ Cubswin no way on #2.

Yeah agree. Throw in another guy to try and get the IFA money or even swap Ademan in for Short if it takes that.

[Cubswin11]

Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly - what do they cost together in a trade?

I’d be very in on Pressly if he’s available and be willing to pay a decent amount. Same with Adam Conley as a “under the radar” target.