Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

[imb]

Somewhat quietly, Albert Almora has put himself on pace for a 5-ish WAR season in CF as a 24 year old — something that's been done only 21 times since 1990 by a CF between the ages of 20-24. The vast majority of those cases are Sizemore, andruw jones, griffey and mike trout. (those 3 make up 16 of the 21 appearances, the others are 2010 Cargo, 2014 Puig, 2011 mccutchen, 2001 beltran, and 2004 COREY PATTERSON.)

 

His splits have been pretty clean, but I imagine the final season product may look a little different because it's likely a stretch to assume he'll hit .300 against RHP all year. My favorite stat of his so far is that in 46 ABs against LHP, he's struck out twice.

 

Anyway, I think it's cool to see him looking like a guy who might work out considering the FO's infatuation with him and his somewhat ugly path up the minors.

[UMFan83]

I have nothing to add except

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The walk rate is better than I would've guessed, and improving. If he's taking his walks that's gonna mean real good things.

 

 

I'm still a skeptic of pretty much any hitter with his offensive profile, but there's definitely a 'good enough' point where he doesn't need a 12% BB% to be useful given his defense.

[Bertz]

I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

 

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

[Brian707]

[CyHawk_Cub]

Yeah, I worry about his peripherals coming home to roost, but in the Yelich acquisition thread this spring, I said I was confident the Almora/Happ platoon would match Yelich's production for dirt cheap. Looks like I may have lucked into a decent call. I wasn't even an Almora fan coming into this season.

[UMFan83]

.379 BABIP

 

Right now he seems like a high contact guy in a peak power year at a peak power age

 

His BABIP has always trended high. Not .379 but it was .338 last year. If there's some regression that is fine as long as he is contributing on both sides of the plate and continuing to play defense at a high rate.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

 

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

 

I believe in Statcast stuff a lot more than some others. And I think he has been incredibly fortunate this year. His BABIP is really high and he hasn't hit the ball hard. But he was like that in the first half last year, too, and then he started hitting the ball harder in the second half and his actual numbers matched up a lot better. I hope he can get back to that -- a few more dingers and some balls in the gaps.

 

He does some things well. A good amount of line drives, not many pop ups, a lot of infield hits. But he also hits a lot of lazy fly balls for a guy that isn't trying to get the ball in the air. Hopefully he can keep making minor improvements with his plate discipline and start putting better pitches in play. It might help with some exit velocity and launch angle issues.

 

But the main thing has been the defensive improvements we've seen. Keep this up and he can be a fine player that is just putting the ball in play a lot and not doing much else.

[Thrilho]

And I think he has been incredibly fortunate this year. His BABIP is really high and he hasn't hit the ball hard.

This was true for April when he had a 23% hard hit and every squibber to the right was finding a hole, but in May he’s got a 34% hard hit. I haven’t looked at exit velocity or the statcast but however they calculate hard hit rate, KB is only at 37% for his career so 34% seems pretty good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The one thing I'll stand up for with Almora's BABIP is that he's been much better about going to right field on pitches to the outside, and even though those mostly aren't frozen ropes they're often singles because of the approach. Much rather him letting the ball travel and looping it to right than rolling over and pounding groundballs to SS.

[Thrilho]

This was true for April when he had a 23% hard hit and every squibber to the right was finding a hole, but in May he’s got a 34% hard hit. I haven’t looked at exit velocity or the statcast but however they calculate hard hit rate, KB is only at 37% for his career so 34% seems pretty good.

 

The most important words in that post

Keep hammering on Almora and I’ll just be sitting back waiting for you to fade out of the conversation when keeps having a valuable career as a first division starter with the first division Cubs.

[Bull]

I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

 

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

You know who else STATCAST hated? Kirby Puckett.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm assuming he's going to be one of those turds who has an unsustainable stat line for awhile, but if I join the "he's gonna suck" bandwagon, he'll start developing real skills at the exact same rate the fake skills regress to the mean and he continues to be a valuable player regardless.

[Bull]

I'm assuming he's going to be one of those turds who has an unsustainable stat line for awhile, but if I join the "he's gonna suck" bandwagon, he'll start developing real skills at the exact same rate the fake skills regress to the mean and he continues to be a valuable player regardless.

Then do it!

[SouthSideRyan]

I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

 

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

You know who else STATCAST hated? Kirby Puckett.

 

And now he's dead.

[Sammy Sofa]

Tom's just jealous that he can't make Almora one of his rando baseball crushes who plays for another team.