The Mock Off Season Thread

[Clem Fandango]

As much as I like Salazar when he's healthy, I don't trust his health anywhere close to enough to give up Happ + CJ. And while I'm really grateful we got a splendid year from Duensing, I don't expect it to happen again.

 

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining.

 

Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year.

 

With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

 

Not a southpaw, sorry.

 

Can't speak for Duke, though.

[Cubswin11]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

This is my ideal offseason pretty much.

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah what Tim had is pretty close to what I'd want to do, if we get Ohtani and Cobb. Rivera seems like a no-brainer to bring back. Wouldn't hurt to add a couple of AAAA catchers too.

 

I'd like Holland and McGee and part of me is interested in a buy-low starter such as Hellickson or Friers. And Smyly on a 2 year deal with incentives.

 

Multiple people here have brought up Nunez but doesn't his defense rate pretty badly?

[davell]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

 

Volquez just had TJS. But, that'd make it easier to see the Marlins try to put him in a deal anyway.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

This is my ideal offseason pretty much.

 

I should add, you could probably even skip on adding an outfielder in this case if you really wanted to, since Happ/Zobrist can hoover up a bunch of starts and Ohtani could maybe snag a few at bats if he hits since his SP workload would be managed more. Zagunis is also lurking in Iowa. That also solves the problem of needing to choose between Grimm and La Stella on the 25 man roster, although that's not exactly a tortuous decision either way.

 

Probably doesn't hurt to add one though, especially if it's a 1 year deal it doesn't impact your ability to stay under the luxury tax this year or impact any 2019 FA pursuit.

[davell]

 

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining.

 

Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year.

 

With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

 

Not a southpaw, sorry.

 

Can't speak for Duke, though.

 

Reverse splits guy, maybe?

 

And where the horsefeathers is Duke? He's disappeared.

[Cubswin11]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

This is my ideal offseason pretty much.

 

I should add, you could probably even skip on adding an outfielder in this case if you really wanted to, since Happ/Zobrist can hoover up a bunch of starts and Ohtani could maybe snag a few at bats if he hits since his SP workload would be managed more. Zagunis is also lurking in Iowa. That also solves the problem of needing to choose between Grimm and La Stella on the 25 man roster, although that's not exactly a tortuous decision either way.

 

Probably doesn't hurt to add one though, especially if it's a 1 year deal it doesn't impact your ability to stay under the luxury tax this year or impact any 2019 FA pursuit.

Yeah you wouldn’t overly need to add another OF but adding Jackson or someone (Gomez?) similar would be nice. This sequence of moves would also let them go a little higher on FA RPs if needed/wanted to get a guy or guys since there’s money saved on the SP and/or could spend more to make Avila the backup C instead of Rivera.

[Tim]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

If we're trading for Yelich, would we actually be better off keeping Almora to hit against lefties? Our remaining OF's after trading Almora would all be better against right handed pitching: Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist and Yelich. I know you suggested signing Jackson afterwards, but I'm wondering if that would be enough.

 

How about sending Happ+, but also taking back Nick Wittgren as an optionable relief candidate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

If we're trading for Yelich, would we actually be better off keeping Almora to hit against lefties? Our remaining OF's after trading Almora would all be better against right handed pitching: Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist and Yelich. I know you suggested signing Jackson afterwards, but I'm wondering if that would be enough.

 

How about sending Happ+, but also taking back Nick Wittgren as an optionable relief candidate?

 

My assumption was Almora would be necessary with his higher ceiling and Miami ties.

[Tim]

Interesting, I'd guess Happ is more valuable than Almora.

[David]

Interesting, I'd guess Happ is more valuable than Almora.

 

same

[Tim]

interesting...

 

KC has said that they are rebuilding. I'd be pretty interested to kick the doors on a Nate Karns trade.

[Bertz]

Ohtani makes this whole exercise especially fun. For instance, we could sign Darvish and two Morrow/McGee types to multi-year deals and still be approximately a Bryce Harper under the luxury tax next year. Or you could trade for Archer knowing that losing Happ's lefthanded power off the bench is suddenly much less painful.

 

I think if we get Ohtani I don't go after Cobb. I would want to either go way above his talent level and build a super rotation or go a little cheaper (and no draft pick) and save our bullets for more goodies next winter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ohtani makes this whole exercise especially fun. For instance, we could sign Darvish and two Morrow/McGee types to multi-year deals and still be approximately a Bryce Harper under the luxury tax next year. Or you could trade for Archer knowing that losing Happ's lefthanded power off the bench is suddenly much less painful.

 

I think if we get Ohtani I don't go after Cobb. I would want to either go way above his talent level and build a super rotation or go a little cheaper (and no draft pick) and save our bullets for more goodies next winter.

 

 

Any plan that involves signing Harper is going to take the Cubs over the luxury tax, or be really bad. The one exception would be a Heyward trade/opt-out, which is basically a non-starter at the moment. That's okay, as long as they stay under this year they don't have to be all that concerned about how much they exceed it by in order to get Harper, but they will exceed it nonetheless.

 

As an example, my path upthread which is basically Ohtani, Yelich, Cobb, and 2 relievers in terms of 2019 expenditures, leaves them about 13 million under the threshold in planning the '19 offseason. There's no path to being 30+ under entering 2019 that doesn't make 2018 much worse.

[champaignchris]

Any plan that involves signing Harper is going to take the Cubs over the luxury tax, or be really bad. The one exception would be a Heyward trade/opt-out, which is basically a non-starter at the moment. That's okay, as long as they stay under this year they don't have to be all that concerned about how much they exceed it by in order to get Harper, but they will exceed it nonetheless.

 

As an example, my path upthread which is basically Ohtani, Yelich, Cobb, and 2 relievers in terms of 2019 expenditures, leaves them about 13 million under the threshold in planning the '19 offseason. There's no path to being 30+ under entering 2019 that doesn't make 2018 much worse.

 

My plan: Sign Harper on the same day they announce the new $87 gadzooktillian television contract, tell the rest of baseball to go eff themselves.

[Bertz]

Ohtani makes this whole exercise especially fun. For instance, we could sign Darvish and two Morrow/McGee types to multi-year deals and still be approximately a Bryce Harper under the luxury tax next year. Or you could trade for Archer knowing that losing Happ's lefthanded power off the bench is suddenly much less painful.

 

I think if we get Ohtani I don't go after Cobb. I would want to either go way above his talent level and build a super rotation or go a little cheaper (and no draft pick) and save our bullets for more goodies next winter.

 

 

Any plan that involves signing Harper is going to take the Cubs over the luxury tax, or be really bad. The one exception would be a Heyward trade/opt-out, which is basically a non-starter at the moment. That's okay, as long as they stay under this year they don't have to be all that concerned about how much they exceed it by in order to get Harper, but they will exceed it nonetheless.

 

As an example, my path upthread which is basically Ohtani, Yelich, Cobb, and 2 relievers in terms of 2019 expenditures, leaves them about 13 million under the threshold in planning the '19 offseason. There's no path to being 30+ under entering 2019 that doesn't make 2018 much worse.

 

Yeah, I think I fat fingered something with the Darvish scenario. As of right now, we are ~55 under for '19, and Harper will be something like 35 by himself.

 

I don't expect us to be under the tax in '19, but i do expect that we can't go too far over. Specifically, I expect us to stay within 20 million of the tax to avoid triggering the next tier of penalties. I imagine that means one of our rotation spots will need be filled cheaply in terms of dollars, whether that be Ohtani or a trade. It also means that at least one of our 3 bullpen slots will go to a one year prove it guy in the mold of Duensing.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

 

Not a southpaw, sorry.

 

Can't speak for Duke, though.

 

Reverse splits guy, maybe?

 

And where the horsefeathers is Duke? He's disappeared.

 

[soccer10k]

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

 

Not a southpaw, sorry.

 

Can't speak for Duke, though.

 

Reverse splits guy, maybe?

 

And where the horsefeathers is Duke? He's disappeared.

 

Hopefully trying to figure out how to write articles about Cubs players that don't curse them.

[Post Count Padder]

I imagine he resign with the Yankees but otherwise CC Sabathia would make plenty of sense on this roster, right? I really like him on a two year deal.

There are plenty of better cheaper options for the back end of the rotation. Plus, it sounded like he was considering retirement if the Yankees didn't bring him back.

[davell]

A no trade off season at this point.....

 

Signings

 

Cobb 4/72

Morrow 2/24

Rivera 1/3

McGee 2/14

Gregerson 1/5

Cahill 1/2.5

 

47.5 added to LT. Conceivably leaves you a little over 10 for in-season moves

 

C Contreras, Rivera, Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Baez La Stella

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber Zobrist, Zagunis

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

SP Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Cobb, Chatwood, Cahill, Tseng, Mills

RP Morrow, McGee, Edwards, Wilson, Strop, Montgomery, Gregerson, Grimm, Maples, Alvarez

[Cubswin11]

A no trade off season at this point.....

 

Signings

 

Cobb 4/72

Morrow 2/24

Rivera 1/3

McGee 2/14

Gregerson 1/5

Cahill 1/2.5

 

47.5 added to LT. Conceivably leaves you a little over 10 for in-season moves

 

C Contreras, Rivera, Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Baez La Stella

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber Zobrist, Zagunis

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

SP Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Cobb, Chatwood, Cahill, Tseng, Mills

RP Morrow, McGee, Edwards, Wilson, Strop, Montgomery, Gregerson, Grimm, Maples, Alvarez

I’d very much be fine with this

[Aaron_Kennelly]

A no trade off season at this point.....

 

Signings

 

Cobb 4/72

Morrow 2/24

Rivera 1/3

McGee 2/14

Gregerson 1/5

Cahill 1/2.5

 

47.5 added to LT. Conceivably leaves you a little over 10 for in-season moves

 

C Contreras, Rivera, Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Baez La Stella

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber Zobrist, Zagunis

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

SP Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Cobb, Chatwood, Cahill, Tseng, Mills

RP Morrow, McGee, Edwards, Wilson, Strop, Montgomery, Gregerson, Grimm, Maples, Alvarez

 

That's a really good looking squad. Depth in the pen. Solidifies the bottom of the rotation in a big way. And the same abundance of talent in the field.

 

The dynasty is back on!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I get that was the bit, but I think there's practical reasons that signing 3 relievers can't happen. Too many teams are going to get more desperate for their first reliever before you get your third. It also means that Cobb is less likely than it was before Chatwod. Cahill is probably going to get a better chance at innings than Cubs 7th starter too.

[davell]

I get that was the bit, but I think there's practical reasons that signing 3 relievers can't happen. Too many teams are going to get more desperate for their first reliever before you get your third. It also means that Cobb is less likely than it was before Chatwod. Cahill is probably going to get a better chance at innings than Cubs 7th starter too.

 

Yeah, I can't really argue much of this. I do think we're on complete level ground with Cobb. Partially because I think we're his top choice. My question is whether the market dictates 5 years for him and whether we go that route. I still think our top choice is to trade for a guy. But, timing is going to factor in. Can we make a trade before the top starters are off the board? If not, my guess is we'll sign a guy, so we're not stuck in a bad strength position of negotiating.

 

The Cahill move....You're right. But, I figure he'd be in our pen, when he wasn't needed to start. And figured he liked it here and wanted to come back lol.

 

Grabbing 3 pen arms wouldn't be easy. But, I chose Morrow out of necessity, McGee due to the Tampa connection I feel may be important, and Gregerson because he's from Chicago.

 

In a vacuum, I think we WILL make a few trades. Maybe even a big one for a starter. Almost definitely a small one or two for pitching depth. Maybe even grab a pen arm that way too.

 

The off season with no trades isn't extremely realistic, but other than starting depth and the 3rd reliever, I think its plausible and maybe even likely, at this point. Not necessarily the exact names, but signing a top 4 starter, plus 2 nice pen arms, and Rivera.

[Gilby]

Morrow 2 yr deal to close

Neshek 2 yr deal

Rivera 1 yr deal

Granderson 1 yr deal

 

Trade Russell, Alzolay, and Zagunis for Archer and Hechavarria