7/16 Cubs (Quintana) @ Orioles (Jimenez) 12:35 CT ABC7/670

[Agony and Ivy]

Phillies just hit a grand dong to take a 5-2 lead because the Brewers bullpen is so good.

 

It's the Phillies so it might not even last an inning, but it would be really nice for the Cubs to be rewarded for this weekend by picking up a game.

 

Pfffft the Phillies lockdown bullpen has this horsefeathers on ice now.

[Geech]

Insurance runs.

[raw]

Contreras is really really good.

[weis21]

how is happ so fast?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Phillies just hit a grand dong to take a 5-2 lead because the Brewers bullpen is so good.

 

It's the Phillies so it might not even last an inning, but it would be really nice for the Cubs to be rewarded for this weekend by picking up a game.

 

Pfffft the Phillies lockdown bullpen has this horsefeathers on ice now.

 

Any chance you're not being sarcastic, as I don't know anything about their bullpen. Please tell me you are serious. Please?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

how is happ so fast?

 

Faster than any other Cub, at the very least.

[UMFan83]

Typical Heyward 100+ mph out

[bcl412]

We're never losing again.

[weis21]

Typical Heyward 100+ mph out

yep. he's going to have a really, really good second half if he keeps scalding the ball as he has so far. the whole team is clicking and we're getting kyle back soon and they're going to go on an insane run

[raw]

how is happ so fast?

 

Faster than any other Cub, at the very least.

 

Yeah, I never knew this about Happ until seeing him play live. Most surprising thing has been his speed and his ability to play CF. Hell, I didn't think he'd be any good at 2B either.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Who's for a petition to transfer the Orioles to the NL Central?

[weis21]

do we split up the lefties in the playoffs or just go lester/quintana/hendricks/jake

[weis21]

over .500!

[SpongeWorthy]

Arizona has really fallen off. 6 back in the loss column from WC1.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I'd prefer to see Montgomery moved back into the pen and Lackey hold onto the 5th SP slot.

 

Lackey has mostly been doing what he's done in recent years, with the exception of his HR/FB suddenly skyrocketing to more than double his career figure. His velocity is down a bit, so sure -- maybe this is the end of the line. But it's only down about 1 mph, so I'm more inclined to believe that he's just having some bad luck.

 

But it's not like Mongtomery is pitching significantly better. Even with his overall stats being padded due to his time in relief, xFIP and SIERA see them as virtually the same. And if they're virtually the same, I'd rather keep the guy who can be a solid left-handed reliever in that role.

 

Here's our current options.

 

Lackey is going to be overrated and Montgomery is going to be underrated by metrics that try to normalize batted ball profiles. Montgomery is very hard to square up and gets a lot of groundballs, while Lackey is a strike thrower who has lost a tick and is now in an environment where more strikes than ever end up at or over the fence. Montgomery isn't perfect, and he hasn't seized the starting chance like I hoped he might, but he is still easily the 5th best SP we have.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Who's for a petition to transfer the Orioles to the NL Central?

 

No, because then the Brewers would also get them 19 times a season.

[raw]

So, looking ahead......if the Phillies can hold this lead, there's a good chance the Cubs can make up a couple games before going to Milwaukee to end the month.

 

Brewers have been pretty good on the road, but play their next 10 away from Miller Park. While they do get the Phillies again, they have 4 vs. the Pirates and 3 vs. the Nats before the Cubs series. Meanwhile, the Cubs continue to face a bunch of bad pitchers. Atlanta has been solid this year, but you'd hope the Cubs could take 2 of 3 even w/ Lackey and Montgomery going. Then they get St. Louis with Arrieta, Quintana and Lester. After that it's 4 vs. the tanking Sox. If the Cubs can get a 7-3 next 10, and the Brewers go 4-6 on the road....that'll put the Cubs 1.5 back before the 3 gamer in Miller, win that series and I get complete confidence back in this team's playoff chances. Right now, I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic.

[BigSlick]

Wow, are the Cubs good again? This rules

[Aaron_Kennelly]

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I'd prefer to see Montgomery moved back into the pen and Lackey hold onto the 5th SP slot.

 

Lackey has mostly been doing what he's done in recent years, with the exception of his HR/FB suddenly skyrocketing to more than double his career figure. His velocity is down a bit, so sure -- maybe this is the end of the line. But it's only down about 1 mph, so I'm more inclined to believe that he's just having some bad luck.

 

But it's not like Mongtomery is pitching significantly better. Even with his overall stats being padded due to his time in relief, xFIP and SIERA see them as virtually the same. And if they're virtually the same, I'd rather keep the guy who can be a solid left-handed reliever in that role.

 

Here's our current options.

 

Lackey is going to be overrated and Montgomery is going to be underrated by metrics that try to normalize batted ball profiles. Montgomery is very hard to square up and gets a lot of groundballs, while Lackey is a strike thrower who has lost a tick and is now in an environment where more strikes than ever end up at or over the fence. Montgomery isn't perfect, and he hasn't seized the starting chance like I hoped he might, but he is still easily the 5th best SP we have.

 

Yeah, this era has kinda ruined a ton of stats. xFIP made a lot of sense when most guys were going to regress back to the mean in HR/FB. For some guys, it wasn't a great measure -- but only for a handful on the margins that could or couldn't suppress home runs. And, this is just me talking out of my ass, but I think the hitter had a lot more of the say when a home run was hit. These days, any schlub can take a ball out of the park. So I think a guy who gets squared up more often has his problems magnified, when a scrawny middle infielder is going to drive the ball out of the park if it's left over the plate. Mistakes will hurt you more, so mistakes are more important.

 

Also, xFIP, FIP, etc. are definitely calibrated pretty well. But, if the calibration is even slightly off, then this wacky environment could exacerbate those flaws. Also, say, FIP used to able to measure batted-ball prowess, without actually accounting for it, because good pitchers were good at everything. So, maybe strikeouts and walks were over-calibrated, when weak contact went hand-in-hand with strikeouts and walks. Change the era to one where there are more strikeouts, more walks, and more homers, and things can get really weird. It could be that a pitcher's batted ball profile is more important than ever.

 

That's not even getting into the stats that are fucked up because of ballpark adjustments. Everything is really weird.

[Brian]

So, looking ahead......if the Phillies can hold this lead, there's a good chance the Cubs can make up a couple games before going to Milwaukee to end the month.

 

Brewers have been pretty good on the road, but play their next 10 away from Miller Park. While they do get the Phillies again, they have 4 vs. the Pirates and 3 vs. the Nats before the Cubs series. Meanwhile, the Cubs continue to face a bunch of bad pitchers. Atlanta has been solid this year, but you'd hope the Cubs could take 2 of 3 even w/ Lackey and Montgomery going. Then they get St. Louis with Arrieta, Quintana and Lester. After that it's 4 vs. the tanking Sox. If the Cubs can get a 7-3 next 10, and the Brewers go 4-6 on the road....that'll put the Cubs 1.5 back before the 3 gamer in Miller, win that series and I get complete confidence back in this team's playoff chances. Right now, I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

I was also just looking at the rest of July, and I came with a similar conclusion. If the Cubs finish at worst 2/2.5 back, I'll feel real good.

[We Got The Whole 9]

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I'd prefer to see Montgomery moved back into the pen and Lackey hold onto the 5th SP slot.

 

Lackey has mostly been doing what he's done in recent years, with the exception of his HR/FB suddenly skyrocketing to more than double his career figure. His velocity is down a bit, so sure -- maybe this is the end of the line. But it's only down about 1 mph, so I'm more inclined to believe that he's just having some bad luck.

 

But it's not like Mongtomery is pitching significantly better. Even with his overall stats being padded due to his time in relief, xFIP and SIERA see them as virtually the same. And if they're virtually the same, I'd rather keep the guy who can be a solid left-handed reliever in that role.

 

Here's our current options.

 

Lackey is going to be overrated and Montgomery is going to be underrated by metrics that try to normalize batted ball profiles. Montgomery is very hard to square up and gets a lot of groundballs, while Lackey is a strike thrower who has lost a tick and is now in an environment where more strikes than ever end up at or over the fence. Montgomery isn't perfect, and he hasn't seized the starting chance like I hoped he might, but he is still easily the 5th best SP we have.

Lackey has to accept that the ball is juiced and stop throwing pitches away. Focus on every single pitch. When in the past he would get pop flies, now they're leaving the yard. It feels like a lot of those HR have come on first pitch fastballs down the pipe. Blatant arrogance.

 

But with Monty, like most 5th starters, his numbers the 2nd time through the order are really bad across the board.

 

I'm more confident that Lackey can get closer to his previous levels ('15-16 especially) than Monty can navigate through lineups multiple times more consistently. He just doesn't have the control and command of his fastball for me.

 

And I've already stated how much I want him in the long role. With this staff (although I admit maybe things are turning especially with the add of Q, Jake's last 11 starts, and Kyle's imminent return) usually unable to go deep, he protects the pen a lot. When he gets shelled, our pen gets burnt.

 

I think I prefer going outside the organization for that spot but if they choose not to, I think Lackey should get it.

[cubsclapp]

Seems like a good time to share this.

 

http://thebiglead.com/2017/07/13/the-cubs-gave-up-far-too-much-for-jose-quintana/

[cubsclapp]

So, looking ahead......if the Phillies can hold this lead, there's a good chance the Cubs can make up a couple games before going to Milwaukee to end the month.

 

Brewers have been pretty good on the road, but play their next 10 away from Miller Park. While they do get the Phillies again, they have 4 vs. the Pirates and 3 vs. the Nats before the Cubs series. Meanwhile, the Cubs continue to face a bunch of bad pitchers. Atlanta has been solid this year, but you'd hope the Cubs could take 2 of 3 even w/ Lackey and Montgomery going. Then they get St. Louis with Arrieta, Quintana and Lester. After that it's 4 vs. the tanking Sox. If the Cubs can get a 7-3 next 10, and the Brewers go 4-6 on the road....that'll put the Cubs 1.5 back before the 3 gamer in Miller, win that series and I get complete confidence back in this team's playoff chances. Right now, I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

Unfortunately -- and of course -- that first game against the Nats will be with Edwin Jackson pitching for Washington.

 

But yes, the overall point is a good one.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Tigers almost certainly would've taken Eloy and Cease for Fullmer! Why didn't Theo think of that?!

 

Just shaddupp

[davell]

Q's start was worth 0.6 fWAR. He's up to 6th on the team and one more start like that puts him 3rd lol.