2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Well that's a boner-killing series of tweets. That's a waste of about $235K in the bonus pools if he doesn't sign. This FO is just so good at manipulating numbers though, that you have to believe they knew what they were doing.

 

This regime does their homework. I wouldn't worry.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

7th round: Ricky Tyler Thomas, LHP, Fresno State - BA rank: 227, no MLB.com rank:

 

Thomas had two disastrous starts--including a 10-run, no-outs start against San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference tournament--that ran his ERA up to 4.86, after a 2.16 mark as a sophomore. (The Mountain West Conference ERA was a cumulative 6.02.) The slight-bodied 6-foot-1, 185-pounder was consistently better in 2016, earning a spot on USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team. Thomas competes and has a changeup that at times earns 70 grades, though that was not the case frequently this year. He didn't command his 87-90 mph fastball this spring, with his walk rate jumped from 1.38 per nine to 5.16 this season. Thomas has a fringy to below-average breaking ball, and he wasn't holding his velocity over the course of the season. His track record still could get him drafted in the first six rounds.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm a sucker for small school guys who just kill the ball like Filiere. Around 180 PA, .375/.530/.794, 13 HR, 41/22 BB/K

[davell]

I'm a sucker for small school guys who just kill the ball like Filiere. Around 180 PA, .375/.530/.794, 13 HR, 41/22 BB/K

 

Until I read a bit on him, I thought Theo had drafted a FO guy.

[Tim]

I'm a sucker for small school guys who just kill the ball like Filiere. Around 180 PA, .375/.530/.794, 13 HR, 41/22 BB/K

 

Until I read a bit on him, I thought Theo had drafted a FO guy.

Another Cape Cod guy. Who was it that was asking about that the other day?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm a sucker for small school guys who just kill the ball like Filiere. Around 180 PA, .375/.530/.794, 13 HR, 41/22 BB/K

 

Until I read a bit on him, I thought Theo had drafted a FO guy.

 

whynotboth.gif

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-austin-filiere-future-third-basemangeneral-manager-from-mit/

[davell]

Senior signs in the 9th and 10th. OF and a RHP.

[davell]

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874757767805808640

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874757871635898369

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874757994742824960

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874758090477846528

[davell]

Assuming we're taking college juniors for the most part in the next 10 rounds or so, here's MLB's group that are still there from their top 200.....

 

89 Bryce Montes de Oca- RHP Missouri

128 Donovan Casey- RF Boston College

139 Chris Williams-C Clemson

145 Colby Fitch-C Louisville

152 David Parkinson-LHP Ole Miss

155 Keith Rogalla-RHP Creighton

171 JJ Schwarz-C Florida

189 Will Kincanon-RHP Indiana State

 

It'd be nice to grab one or two from that group.

 

 

Here are the college sophomore eligible and JC guys from that list....

 

53 Tristan Beck-RHP Stanford

58 Blaine Knight-RHP Arkansas

102 Jake Mangum -LHP Miss State

143 Jordan Spicer-RHP Polk County JC

164 Riley Thompson-RHP Louisville

177 Griffin Roberts-RHP Wake Forest

 

That groups harder to sign obviously.

Edited June 14, 2017 by davell

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hot takes a'comin:

 

So Lange might be a more serious SP prospect than I thought. Bigger than I thought, better performer in college than I thought if maybe a little HR prone, healthy after logging 337+ highly competitive innings (also more than I thought) in college...Basically what I knew about him was accomplished LA RHSP with the best curveball in the draft. If whatever velocity dip this year wasn't injury related there's enough imaginary checked boxes to hope for a pretty good SP.

 

Little's most interesting because the Cubs could use a power LH reliever without a premium FA or prospect price tag. The stuff, need on the ML roster, and no need to even pretend he's a serious SP prospect (he's logged all of 87 innings since 2015, almost all of them at the JUCO level) might allow them to move him really, really fast through the system similar to Paco Rodriguez for the Dodgers.

 

Little actually threw 85.1 innings this season in JC. For comparison, Alex Lange has thrown 111 innings (so far - he obviously has at least one more start in Omaha).

 

I'm guessing the Cubs will let Little throw about 20 more innings in Mesa/Eugene and will shut down Lange, so the gap between the two will only be about 20-25 innings. The Cubs will correctly keep him in the rotation next year and make him prove he's only a reliever.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hot takes a'comin:

 

So Lange might be a more serious SP prospect than I thought. Bigger than I thought, better performer in college than I thought if maybe a little HR prone, healthy after logging 337+ highly competitive innings (also more than I thought) in college...Basically what I knew about him was accomplished LA RHSP with the best curveball in the draft. If whatever velocity dip this year wasn't injury related there's enough imaginary checked boxes to hope for a pretty good SP.

 

Little's most interesting because the Cubs could use a power LH reliever without a premium FA or prospect price tag. The stuff, need on the ML roster, and no need to even pretend he's a serious SP prospect (he's logged all of 87 innings since 2015, almost all of them at the JUCO level) might allow them to move him really, really fast through the system similar to Paco Rodriguez for the Dodgers.

 

Little actually threw 85.1 innings this season in JC. For comparison, Alex Lange has thrown 111 innings (so far - he obviously has at least one more start in Omaha).

 

I'm guessing the Cubs will let Little throw about 20 more innings in Mesa/Eugene and will shut down Lange, so the gap between the two will only be about 20-25 innings. The Cubs will correctly keep him in the rotation next year and make him prove he's only a reliever.

 

I don't disagree with that at all, he's still probably at an A ball level to start next year where what's best for his long term no matter what role is to get him innings/reps. Those 85.1 IP were included in the 87. It might be 88 innings.

 

First off, the approximately 100 IP he'll amass this season isn't a bad starting point for a starting pitcher who will be in A ball next year (especially when you compare Little to Lange who will likely be around 120). Secondly, he's actually thrown 116.1 innings since 2015, not 88.

 

85.1 at State College of Florida in 2017

27 IP in the Cape Cod League in 2016

4 IP at UNC in 2016

[davell]

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874821969752997888

[craig]

Seems like the cubs grabbed a lot of "not as good as previously" guys. Lange, Thompson, Estrada, Thomas, all kind of "off years" or not as good as they used to be.

 

Don't expect to see any of these guys pitching this summer, other than maybe the senior sign closer. Or if any do, it will be very, very limited.

 

Guessing the Cubs liked Estrada better than his BA and mlb rankings.

 

Plenty of overage and underslot cash to play with.

[craig]

Lots of positive love for curveballers. But several common problems with curveballers:

1. It's super hard to control and command.

 

2. A lot of curveballers aren't perfect and hang a few. The hangers can go for HR's, more often in majors than with weaker college hitters. Yes, a lot of killer curveballs can be really tough on hitters; but the frequency of mistakes, and resulting damage, is part of the effectiveness equation.

 

3. A lot of curveballers can kill in college or low minors, because they can use unexceptional fastball to get to two strikes, then use curve as putaway. But curve can't kill if you can't get to two strikes.

 

Not trying to be negative, I'm fine with trusting the Cubs judgments here. Just hard to throw curves consistently.

[davell]

Its really interesting....Truly hard to guess at what we've got guys agreed to monetarily.....Here's my guesses.

 

Little-2.2 As a soph, he's got a little negotiating power.(173,300 under)

Lange-2.0 (184,300 under)

Abbott-.500 (401,900 under)

Thompson-slot Would have said less, but Boras....

Uelman- .300(82,300 under)

Velazquez- .250(35,800 under) Wouldn't have said this, but he doesn't have a college commitment)

Estrada- Literally no idea, but I'd guess a mill+

Thomas- .150 (25,500 under)

Filiere-slot

Carrier-.050 (87,500 under)

Glowicki-.050(81,300 under)

 

This is a prediction, but also an exercise, to see where we may be at.....971,900 under, plus 372,700 overage.....That'd leave a total of 1,344,600 to play with. Estrada has a slot of 222,600.

 

In this scenario, we could give him a tad over 1.5. Hopefully, its closer to the 1-1.2 range, which would still give us between 300-500k for 11-40.

 

Obviously, a complete guess. Little and Lange may be getting slot, but I'm hoping this is close. I guess there's a slim chance Estrada is agreeing to 700-800k.

 

At any rate, even if he decided against signing, we should be in pretty good shape to grab some backup plans tomorrow, even if we'd lose his slot. In a perfect world though, is we can get him AND still have room for a Clifton level over slot tomorrow.

[Regular Show]

I'm still making up my mind about these later draft picks. They don't sound super exciting...

 

I really love Estrada and I'm excited they took a risk on him. I'm worried though that he might not sign. I hope this pick ends up like our 6th round pick in 2014 (D. Cease) and he becomes one of our top pitching prospects.

 

If he doesn't sign then I'm gonna be pretty disappointed. Yeah, we'll take some high ceiling arms in the later rounds just in case Estrada doesn't sign, but I don't like that move. It probably won't work out well. Estrada has great makeup from everything I've read and does some charity work so I was surprised about the poor body language/poor makeup comments. He really reminds me of a young M. Stroman except he doesn't have that killer slider ☹️

[davell]

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874836610939879425

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874836765156139008

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874836843891572736

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874836993125101570

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874837102730637317

 

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/874837168207908864

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lots of positive love for curveballers. But several common problems with curveballers:

1. It's super hard to control and command.

 

2. A lot of curveballers aren't perfect and hang a few. The hangers can go for HR's, more often in majors than with weaker college hitters. Yes, a lot of killer curveballs can be really tough on hitters; but the frequency of mistakes, and resulting damage, is part of the effectiveness equation.

 

3. A lot of curveballers can kill in college or low minors, because they can use unexceptional fastball to get to two strikes, then use curve as putaway. But curve can't kill if you can't get to two strikes.

 

Not trying to be negative, I'm fine with trusting the Cubs judgments here. Just hard to throw curves consistently.

 

If you replace every mention of curveball with slider, I'm not sure this post is any less accurate.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA scouting report for the Cubs 8th, 9th and 10th rounders:

 

Filiere opened eyes with a promising summer in the Cape Cod League in 2016. His best attribute is his above-average to plus raw power. Scouts questioned his pure hitting ability, noting his deficiencies in plate coverage and recognizing secondary pitches. Filiere does not have an obvious defensive position for the professional level; he has a 45 arm on the 20-to-80 scale and has 45 speed. Many scouts in the northeast did not turn Filiere in, but noted that he could be selected late on the second day of the draft.

 

After hitting 11 home runs in his first three seasons at Memphis (five as a sophomore, six as a junior), Carrier broke out and swatted 16 home runs this spring. He shows legitimate pull power, though he has some swing and miss to his game. Carrier runs well and has an average arm, so he should have defensive value even if he doesn't end up playing center field.

 

A high school teammate of Louisville and now White Sox ace relief prospect Zack Burdi, Glowicki has proven to be an accomplished closer as well, as he set a Minnesota single-season record for saves as a senior. Glowicki throws a fastball, changeup and slider. None of them is plus, but he fills the strike zone and is very competitive.

 

None of them were in BA's top 500.

[CubsWin]

Its really interesting....Truly hard to guess at what we've got guys agreed to monetarily.....Here's my guesses.

 

Little-2.2 As a soph, he's got a little negotiating power.(173,300 under)

Lange-2.0 (184,300 under)

Abbott-.500 (401,900 under)

Thompson-slot Would have said less, but Boras....

Uelman- .300(82,300 under)

Velazquez- .250(35,800 under) Wouldn't have said this, but he doesn't have a college commitment)

Estrada- Literally no idea, but I'd guess a mill+

Thomas- .150 (25,500 under)

Filiere-slot

Carrier-.050 (87,500 under)

Glowicki-.050(81,300 under)

 

This is a prediction, but also an exercise, to see where we may be at.....971,900 under, plus 372,700 overage.....That'd leave a total of 1,344,600 to play with. Estrada has a slot of 222,600.

 

In this scenario, we could give him a tad over 1.5. Hopefully, its closer to the 1-1.2 range, which would still give us between 300-500k for 11-40.

 

Obviously, a complete guess. Little and Lange may be getting slot, but I'm hoping this is close. I guess there's a slim chance Estrada is agreeing to 700-800k.

 

At any rate, even if he decided against signing, we should be in pretty good shape to grab some backup plans tomorrow, even if we'd lose his slot. In a perfect world though, is we can get him AND still have room for a Clifton level over slot tomorrow.

If those guesses are remotely accurate, the Cubs could have/should have taken Enlow at the end of round 2. He was taken 8 picks later by the Twins who everyone knew still had plenty of money to play with after taking Lewis 1st overall because they could underslot him.

 

I don't know what Enlow's demands are so perhaps the math wouldn't have worked out and the Cubs knew it. But, damn, Little, Lange and Enlow would've been a nice haul...

[Regular Show]

Its really interesting....Truly hard to guess at what we've got guys agreed to monetarily.....Here's my guesses.

 

Little-2.2 As a soph, he's got a little negotiating power.(173,300 under)

Lange-2.0 (184,300 under)

Abbott-.500 (401,900 under)

Thompson-slot Would have said less, but Boras....

Uelman- .300(82,300 under)

Velazquez- .250(35,800 under) Wouldn't have said this, but he doesn't have a college commitment)

Estrada- Literally no idea, but I'd guess a mill+

Thomas- .150 (25,500 under)

Filiere-slot

Carrier-.050 (87,500 under)

Glowicki-.050(81,300 under)

 

This is a prediction, but also an exercise, to see where we may be at.....971,900 under, plus 372,700 overage.....That'd leave a total of 1,344,600 to play with. Estrada has a slot of 222,600.

 

In this scenario, we could give him a tad over 1.5. Hopefully, its closer to the 1-1.2 range, which would still give us between 300-500k for 11-40.

 

Obviously, a complete guess. Little and Lange may be getting slot, but I'm hoping this is close. I guess there's a slim chance Estrada is agreeing to 700-800k.

 

At any rate, even if he decided against signing, we should be in pretty good shape to grab some backup plans tomorrow, even if we'd lose his slot. In a perfect world though, is we can get him AND still have room for a Clifton level over slot tomorrow.

If those guesses are remotely accurate, the Cubs could have/should have taken Enlow at the end of round 2. He was taken 8 picks later by the Twins who everyone knew still had plenty of money to play with after taking Lewis 1st overall because they could underslot him.

 

I don't know what Enlow's demands are so perhaps the math wouldn't have worked out and the Cubs knew it. But, damn, Little, Lange and Enlow would've been a nice haul...

 

Yup. I concur. I'd rather have Enlow than Estrada. We won't know for a few days/weeks what they're signing for. I imagine Enlow is getting more than Estrada. We'll see how much more.

 

You'd think with the heavy emphasis this Cubs regime is placing on pitchers that can throw an above-average curveball that Enlow would be someone they'd target heavily. Enlow has arguably the best curveball in this entire draft class!

[CubsWin]

Some of the top names still available:

 

Stanford RHP Tristan Beck

Prep RHP Tanner Burns

Prep SS Brady McConnell

Prep CF Garrett Mitchell

Prep LHP Jake Eder

Prep LHP Daniel Cabrera

Arkansas RHP Blayne Knight

Prep RHP Bryce Bonnin

Missouri RHP Bryce Montes de Oca

Prep RHP Kyle Hurt (ominous name for a pitcher...)

[davell]

I think my preferred scenario is better than getting Enlow. If you get Estrada AND a guy like Strider, Lacy, Rutledge, Drohan, or some other HS arm with upside, you're better off than just getting Enlow.

 

Again, its hopeful, on my end. Don't know if its possible or not. But, I'd take Estrada, plus another 500-600ishK type over Enlow.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Its really interesting....Truly hard to guess at what we've got guys agreed to monetarily.....Here's my guesses.

 

Little-2.2 As a soph, he's got a little negotiating power.(173,300 under)

Lange-2.0 (184,300 under)

Abbott-.500 (401,900 under)

Thompson-slot Would have said less, but Boras....

Uelman- .300(82,300 under)

Velazquez- .250(35,800 under) Wouldn't have said this, but he doesn't have a college commitment)

Estrada- Literally no idea, but I'd guess a mill+

Thomas- .150 (25,500 under)

Filiere-slot

Carrier-.050 (87,500 under)

Glowicki-.050(81,300 under)

 

This is a prediction, but also an exercise, to see where we may be at.....971,900 under, plus 372,700 overage.....That'd leave a total of 1,344,600 to play with. Estrada has a slot of 222,600.

 

In this scenario, we could give him a tad over 1.5. Hopefully, its closer to the 1-1.2 range, which would still give us between 300-500k for 11-40.

 

Obviously, a complete guess. Little and Lange may be getting slot, but I'm hoping this is close. I guess there's a slim chance Estrada is agreeing to 700-800k.

 

At any rate, even if he decided against signing, we should be in pretty good shape to grab some backup plans tomorrow, even if we'd lose his slot. In a perfect world though, is we can get him AND still have room for a Clifton level over slot tomorrow.

 

My random guesses for savings: $550k on Abbott, $100k on Uelmen, Carrier and Glowicki. As you said, the Cubs might be able to get a small savings on Velazquez since he doesn't have a college commitment but I don't think it'll be a lot. That plus the pick 195's actual slot gets you somewhere around $1 - $1.05 million and you still have about $350k in the 5% tax. I imagine Estrada is getting all of that nearly $1.4 million. He certainly didn't fall to the 6th round for a six-figure bonus.

 

Also I think Little and Lange will both get slot.

[Regular Show]

I think my preferred scenario is better than getting Enlow. If you get Estrada AND a guy like Strider, Lacy, Rutledge, Drohan, or some other HS arm with upside, you're better off than just getting Enlow.

 

Again, its hopeful, on my end. Don't know if its possible or not. But, I'd take Estrada, plus another 500-600ishK type over Enlow.

 

Ah, I'm not sure about this since we don't know how much Estrada is demanding, but I don't think the Cubs have enough to sign Estrada and a $500-$600K HS pitcher.

 

I like Estrada and who really knows what will happen? Maybe Estrada will develop into a solid #3 starter and Enlow never makes it to the big leagues. Maybe neither one will make it to the big leagues...

 

Just right now at this moment I wish the Cubs had drafted Enlow in the 2nd round + some pitcher in the 6th round over taking Estrada in the 6th + C. Abbott in the 2nd.