Starting Pitching candidates

[Donzo]

From what I understand, after a messy breakup, Maddon and the Rays are good.

 

Tampa is still Maddon's full time home and he's a big part of the community. Also, and most importantly to the Rays, he's a shill for the Rays to move to Tampa- the Rays love that.

 

Like others have said, the Rays are just a little greedy when it comes to trading their quality pitching.

[cubsclapp]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the front office prefers Happ to Eloy now, and I would've thought that was crazy a few months ago.

 

But Happ looks like he can be an .800+ OPS hitter (I'm not saying this year, but it sure seems possible even with all of the swing and miss), and should be able to play everywhere but shortstop and catcher competently. He can already find his way into this lineup just about everyday with his ability to play all over the diamond, and he's a switch-hitter that seems to play fine vs either arm side.

 

Happ's ceiling may not be huge, but the player I just described is a very valuable player. Even if he's just a .750 OPS hitter, his versatility and ability to handle middle-of-the-diamond positions makes him fairly valuable still (not to mention Almora may continue to be a .600 OPS hitter vs righties and they need Happ or Heyward to play more in CF). It may be boring, but it's valuable.

 

Eloy is a monster, and figures to crank plenty of glorious dongs. He also seems to be much more than just a power hitter... he really looks like a good *hitter*, and his batting average has supported that. Hitters of this skill level and with this upside don't come along frequently. I would hate to lose Eloy for that reason.

 

But Eloy is a corner outfielder. He's going to be limited to two positions, maybe three if he could handle first base. He's also not likely to be more than average at these positions. I know he has a great arm and he made that insane play in the Futures Game. But he's already a friggin' horse and is only just 20 years old. His range is likely to be pretty average in his prime, at a corner outfield spot. I'm sure he will be better defensively than Schwarber and Soler, but still probably not "good" out there.

 

And Eloy doesn't walk. His walk percentage was 5.4 last year, with 3 of the 28 walks being intentional. The years before it was 6.0 and 6.1. He seems like he will probably be a 4-7% walk guy in the majors. Could he improve here? Sure, but usually the player's plate discipline is what it is at this point.

 

So, if Eloy is an average corner outfielder defensively, and he isn't walking, you're talking about him having to hit A LOT to be more than a 2-WAR player. A .275+ AVG and 30+ dongs annually. He sure seems capable of that, but just saying that the path to being all that valuable is difficult. It's the same conversation we have about Schwarber, but we already know Schwarber's MLB power is there, and he walks a ton.

 

And Happ looks to be a real contributor for a team trying to win championships right now. He can keep finding his way into this lineup and provide the roster with much more flexibility. This will also be the case next year, and the year after that. Eloy is multiple years away, and plays a position occupied by Jason Heyward (barring an opt-out). Or a position occupied by Kyle Schwarber. Or a position occupied by Anthony Rizzo. Maybe someone suffers a serious injury. Maybe Heyward goes back to hitting like Cesar Izturis. Maybe Schwarber keeps being the unluckiest hitter alive/is brutal in left field. These things happen as we've seen the last two years.

 

But add it all up, and I think there's a very good chance this organization prefers to keep Happ. And Eloy also likely gets you a bigger return anyway.

[davell]

That's kind of why I asked that, thinking along those lines. I do think that Eloy can improve on that walk rate though, he's not a big chase guy and if he's hitting that many homers, I'd suspect he gets pitched around quite a bit.

 

Happ MAY even prove to be competent enough in CF, to where he can get lots of AB's there. If the FO thinks that, I think he'd be super valuable to them. Add in that Eloy likely brings a decent amount of extra value, plus is still a few years away.....I could at least see how they'd look at it as Happ helps during the current window and is therefore a better fit.....

 

Again, Eloy is going to be a beast and will be a better player than Happ. But, I can see how his proximity from the majors makes him the easier guy to move.

 

I'd really cringe though, if they move him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like Happ quite a bit and think he's a guy who can potentially give Zobristian production(in slightly different proportions) and positional flexibility, but that's a lot to put on him when he didn't really hit in AA and he's got 40 games above that level. We haven't seen how he's going to react to the inevitable adjustments that are coming. I've written before about adjustments he's made, but doing so in the Carolina League isn't quite the same. For an example of how sample sizes deceive, Aledmys Diaz hit about .450/.500/.800 for a month and he's been mediocre trending towards bad ever since. If Happ can play a capable CF then that's a big point in his favor, but that's far from decided at the moment.

 

As far as Eloy goes, he's definitely a corner OF, but there aren't many players regardless of position that have shown his ability to hit for both average and power, especially with age considered. Here's the list of minor leaguers in full season ball who hit .320 with a .200 IsoP that weren't AAAA guys:

 

Mitch Haniger (25 at AAA, .446 wOBA for the Mariners this year)

Yermin Sanchez (24 at Low/High A)

Eloy (19 at Low A)

 

It's early but you're seeing Eloy become more selective as pitchers get more afraid of him too, he's got 5 walks in 37 PAs in the early going. The only thing that gives me pause about Eloy is the multiple muscle injuries are worrisome, it's an equalizer in the other direction like Happ playing a capable CF.

 

So in my mind, Happ is doing good work and by virtue of being at AAA/MLB already has a non-trivial head start in contributing, but I'm still trading him before Eloy.

[cubsclapp]

Yeah that all makes sense. I don't even necessarily have a preference myself, just saying why I could see the front office preferring Happ. Or perhaps they think it's close enough where they choose to trade Eloy because of the higher return he gets them.

 

Fwiw, two of those five Eloy walks were intentional, but yeah I get that it's because pitchers fear him which may continue.

[Gilby]

When it comes to trading for a controllable TOR pitcher, I'm still at the point where I won't believe it until I see it. Someone like Estrada could be had without including Eloy or Happ and would likely be as good as any pitcher who gets dealt at the deadline at preventing runs for the remainder of the season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

When it comes to trading for a controllable TOR pitcher, I'm still at the point where I won't believe it until I see it. Someone like Estrada could be had without including Eloy or Happ and would likely be as good as any pitcher who gets dealt at the deadline at preventing runs for the remainder of the season.

 

I mentioned this a little ways back, but the problem is less about the remainder of the season and more about someone who'd get 2 starts in a 7 game series.

[Gilby]

When it comes to trading for a controllable TOR pitcher, I'm still at the point where I won't believe it until I see it. Someone like Estrada could be had without including Eloy or Happ and would likely be as good as any pitcher who gets dealt at the deadline at preventing runs for the remainder of the season.

 

I mentioned this a little ways back, but the problem is less about the remainder of the season and more about someone who'd get 2 starts in a 7 game series.

 

I said remainder of season because he's a FA this offseason; I was including playoffs in there. For the 2017 regular season and playoffs, I think he'll be as good as any pitcher that will get dealt. I know FIP doesn't love him, but he's managed to beat that and not give up a bunch of dongs while in Toronto; I don't see that changing with a trade. I think he's a legit 2 or 3 and definitely better than present day Jake.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Praying Eloy can be like Marte with a much higher ISO. Just hit the horsefeathers out of the ball to make up for the lack of walks.

 

Also it seems like I was on to something

 

http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/05/26/among-list-cubs-trade-targets-jeff-samardzija-might-make-sense/

[Little Slide Rooter]

My friend who's a Phillies fan is convinced someone is gonna give them a couple of really good prospects for Jeremy Hellickson.

 

Hellickson has a 3.6 (!) K/9 this year. Yesterday he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks through 5 innings and now has a 5.49 FIP.

 

Probably should keep dreaming, buddy. Really surprised the Phillies didn't trade him last year at the deadline.

 

I don't know about "really good prospects," but even the most middling, veteran starting pitchers become attractive by mid-late summer. They'll get something of use.

[Regular Show]

When it comes to trading for a controllable TOR pitcher, I'm still at the point where I won't believe it until I see it. Someone like Estrada could be had without including Eloy or Happ and would likely be as good as any pitcher who gets dealt at the deadline at preventing runs for the remainder of the season.

 

I agree with Gilby. Outside of maybe trading for Y. Darvish, I don't see us trading for a TOR pitcher. I like Estrada too and think he can do an outstanding job for the remainder of the season. I think J. Maddon and the whole Cubs Front Office loves Happ, and I doubt we part ways with him now. Not sure how they feel about Eloy, but they must like him considering how much praise he got in ST.

 

Candelario, Zagunis and Caratini are all good trade assets and some combination of them plus some pitching prospects should net us a pretty good pitcher -- just not a TOR pitcher.

 

I think we're a good fit for making a trade with B. Beane. He doesn't mind making trades that involve lower-rated prospects. I don't know how much I trust S. Gray, but he could be a good fit and is controllable beyond this season.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The thing about Darvish is that if and when he goes on the table, every serious contender is going to want in. And the Yankees are likely to blow everyone else out of the water by a lot.

 

In general, there seems to be an awful lot of serious contenders with strong farms in the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Rockies.

[davell]

At this point, its too jumbled to truly find who may be selling. But, its kind of looking like there's not going to be that many teams that do....

 

AL East

 

Buyers- Yankees, Red Sox

Who knows? Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays

 

Toronto is getting healthy. They're 2 out of the 2nd WC. So is Tampa and at a quick glance, I think their June schedule could put them IN a WC spot, heading into July. Even though Baltimore is tied with Cleveland for the 2nd WC, I think they actually may be the best bet of a team in the AL East to wind up as sellers. That said, they'll probably stand pat. I think the Jays probably try to buy as well, once alls said and done.

 

AL Central

 

 

 

Buyers- Cleveland

 

Who knows? Minnesota, Detroit, KC

 

Sellers- White Sox

 

Minnesota is likely to try buying, especially if they stay over .500. Detroit is probably looking for a reason to sell, but I doubt they'd pull the trigger, unless they're more than 5 games out of a playoff spot. Saw some rumblings that KC is HOPING for a hot streak to give this group one last shot. I don't see it and think they'll sell off quite a bit.

 

AL West

 

Buyers- Astros

 

Who knows? Rangers, Mariners

 

Sellers- A's, Angels

 

The division is over. The Mariners aren't known as big sellers. The Rangers are interesting, but I bet they'll be close enough to a WC, that they'll stand pat or even attempt to add. Trout killed the Angels WC chances by getting hurt, but I doubt they'll sell off much. Billy is going to have fun this deadline and probably jump the market.

 

NL East

 

Buyers- Nationals

 

Who knows? Mets, Marlins

 

Sellers- Braves, Phillies

 

The division is over here too. The Mets will probably make a run at some point or at least stay in the WC enough, to not sell. The Phillies are a dumpster fire, the Braves will sell off a few pieces, and the Marlins are rumored to sell off bigly. Still, their impending sale gives me pause on them actually doing it.

 

NL Central

 

Buyers- Cubs

 

Who knows? Brewers, Cards, Pirates

 

Sellers- Reds

 

I'll guess the Brewers stand pat. The Cards probably try to add, at worst, they'll hold. The Pirates may wind up selling, but I can see them holding things together for one last run, before giving up. I think the Reds will sell, even if they're somehow within striking distance.

 

NL West

 

Buyers- Dodgers, Rockies

 

Who knows? Diamondbacks, Giants

 

Sellers- Padres

 

The Dodgers and Rockies will buy. The Diamondbacks seem like they prefer selling, but there's no way they do, unless they really tank these next 50 games. I don't see it. The Giants just aren't going to blow things up, even if they should consider moving a few guys. Leaves the Pads to sell off spare parts....

 

In the end, if I'm going to predict the teams I've listed as question marks.....

 

Total Sellers- Royals, White Sox, Angels, A's, Braves, Phillies, Reds, Padres

 

If that IS it, the prices are going to be insane.

[cubsclapp]

The AL could really mess with the trade market. Right now, the worst team (Oakland) is only 5.5 out of a Wild Card.

 

Obviously things are going to change over the next several weeks, but if things stay pretty close, it will be interesting to see which organizations are willing to admit what they are and sell.

 

But like the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and Rangers all seem like .500-ish teams on paper that could hang in there. It's hard to give up on such seasons (the players remember that) and sometimes it's not the general manger's call.

[Agony and Ivy]

Gray has looked excellent once he got his sea legs under him. I'd love to get him from Oakland if he stays healthy.

 

I didn't read the whole thread, so I'm not sure if this was covered, but if they go big to get a TOR arm with control (Archer) I have a sneaking suspicion Addy will be the centerpiece. Just a thought I had the other day that I can't shake.

[cubsclapp]

Gray has looked excellent once he got his sea legs under him. I'd love to get him from Oakland if he stays healthy.

 

I didn't read the whole thread, so I'm not sure if this was covered, but if they go big to get a TOR arm with control (Archer) I have a sneaking suspicion Addy will be the centerpiece. Just a thought I had the other day that I can't shake.

 

To me... if they're trading Addison Russell, they'd better be getting something like Noah Syndergaard back. Addison was just a 4-win player as a 22-year-old. Even with his struggles this year, he's still been worth 1.1 bWAR because he leads all shortstops in DRS by a lot. He was a 3-win player as a rookie with a .696 OPS.

 

He's not going to keep hitting *this* poorly, and we know he has the ability to be quite a bit better offensively. So, I just wouldn't really want to get rid of a 3+ WAR player that is still just 23 and with upside, unless I'm getting a significant pitcher back. Bats > arms, especially ones that are awesome shortstops. I don't know if the team is getting any better in an Archer for Russell swap, for example, and I especially wouldn't bet on that being the case over the next 5 years. Use Eloy and company way before that.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'd be down with a Straily/Phelps package and a Cahill/Hand as well.

 

As far as getting a controllable arm, Gray is probably the most feasible and I would want Hendriks too, if we went that route.

[Tryptamine]

Not real thrilled with the idea of Gray versus what he's likely to cost. I'd be pretty pissed of any of Baez/Eloy/Happ were shipped off in a deal for him because he just hasn't been that good, better yes, but still kind of meh.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not real thrilled with the idea of Gray versus what he's likely to cost. I'd be pretty pissed of any of Baez/Eloy/Happ were shipped off in a deal for him because he just hasn't been that good, better yes, but still kind of meh.

 

I think some of the lure with Gray is that he hasn't been that good and has been injured so he should come cheaper (should obviously be the key word) while still maintaining a high ceiling.

[Anomalied]

Happ + Jimenez for Archer

Candelario + Cease/Clifton + Caratini/Zagunis for Gray

 

Playoff rotation:

 

Lester

Hendricks

Archer

Arrieta

Gray

(Lackey demoted to spot starter/mop-up duty)

 

How realistic?

[Splendid Splinter]

Happ + Jimenez for Archer

Candelario + Cease/Clifton + Caratini/Zagunis for Gray

 

How realistic?

 

GOD NO on the first 1. If you get Cease out of that package for Gray, I would be alright with that one.

[Cubswin11]

Happ + Jimenez for Archer

Candelario + Cease/Clifton + Caratini/Zagunis for Gray

 

How realistic?

 

GOD NO on the first 1. If you get Cease out of that package for Gray, I would be alright with that one.

I'd do that Gray package all day assuming they feel good about his health. Cease is a ticking time bomb, get rid of him before he blows.

[Agony and Ivy]

Gray has looked excellent once he got his sea legs under him. I'd love to get him from Oakland if he stays healthy.

 

I didn't read the whole thread, so I'm not sure if this was covered, but if they go big to get a TOR arm with control (Archer) I have a sneaking suspicion Addy will be the centerpiece. Just a thought I had the other day that I can't shake.

 

To me... if they're trading Addison Russell, they'd better be getting something like Noah Syndergaard back. Addison was just a 4-win player as a 22-year-old. Even with his struggles this year, he's still been worth 1.1 bWAR because he leads all shortstops in DRS by a lot. He was a 3-win player as a rookie with a .696 OPS.

 

He's not going to keep hitting *this* poorly, and we know he has the ability to be quite a bit better offensively. So, I just wouldn't really want to get rid of a 3+ WAR player that is still just 23 and with upside, unless I'm getting a significant pitcher back. Bats > arms, especially ones that are awesome shortstops. I don't know if the team is getting any better in an Archer for Russell swap, for example, and I especially wouldn't bet on that being the case over the next 5 years. Use Eloy and company way before that.

 

You're not getting a guy like Thor for Addison Russell and you're not getting Archer with Eloy as the headliner. Picking one WAR and running with it like that and then switching back to another when convenient is disingenuous. Two other sites have Russell at 0.3 WAR so far this season. Since, if they traded Russell, Baez would assume the starting duties this is how projections see it working out for this season only:

 

fWAR: Baez currently at 0.4 WAR with a projection of 1.4 WAR in limited PAs. Russell currently at 0.3 WAR with a projection of 2.0 WAR moving forward without factoring in his kind of demotion.

 

bWAR: This is super crude math coming at you because it's just extrapolation, which favors Baez since he's being sat against tough righties, but Baez is at 1.1 fWAR in 160 PAs, and Russell is at 1.6 in 199 PAs. Extrapolate that out to 600 PAs and you're looking at 4.1 and 4.8 respectively.

 

WARP: Baez has been worth 0.5 WARP and projected for 0.8 WARP RoS (287 PAs). Russell has been worth 0.3 WARP and 1.3 WARP (392 PAs) projected moving forward.

 

So just swapping out Russell and Baez isn't a huge loss in the immediate future and adding Archer over Eddie Butler is kind of a huge upgrade and solves rotation questions for a couple years, until Archer gets hurt and ruins everything. Of course, that leaves no backup SS option at the moment and hurts the depth, but that might be a worthwhile swap in risk. I don't know if I'd do a Russell+ for Archer swap, but it's not some crazy overpay either.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Happ + Jimenez for Archer

Candelario + Cease/Clifton + Caratini/Zagunis for Gray

 

Playoff rotation:

 

Lester

Hendricks

Archer

Arrieta

Gray

(Lackey demoted to spot starter/mop-up duty)

 

How realistic?

 

How realistic that we go with a 5 man rotation in the playoffs? I'd say about zero percent.

[Agony and Ivy]

Happ + Jimenez for Archer

Candelario + Cease/Clifton + Caratini/Zagunis for Gray

 

Playoff rotation:

 

Lester

Hendricks

Archer

Arrieta

Gray

(Lackey demoted to spot starter/mop-up duty)

 

How realistic?

 

How realistic that we go with a 5 man rotation in the playoffs? I'd say about zero percent.

 

Well by the time the playoffs roll around Arrieta and Hendricks will both be topping out in the mid 70s so it would be Lester/Archer/Gray/Lackey