"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

[mikeyt34]

Thanks for those numbers David, it's pretty much what I suspected. Kyle's not hurting the team thus far with his defense and is far from a train wreck many predicted he would be, although Rawlings won't be getting any trophies ready with his name on it either. Thus far the eye test tells me that from time to time he takes some bad routes and has a little trouble gathering balls hit into the corner or gap in a timely manner, but overall he's played pretty well and getting better. He does seem to have a good arm which he is learning to control, but the strength of his throws is definitely there. The narrative of Kyle being destined for the AL to DH gets tiresome when it seems apparent that he can become a completely adequate LFer with more time. You can see he's worked hard on his defense and takes pride in being the best defender he can be and as a fan I appreciate that effort.

[gobigred]

seeing a ton of pitches..just not hitting many of them so far ...hope he heats up with the weather

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So there was a Fangraphs piece on him today, and I disagree with a lot in it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-schwarber-needs-to-be-himself/

 

The basic premise is that by making more contact, Schwarber is becoming worse. He needs to go back to the lower-contact version that just lets it rip and either swings and misses or hits bombs. He's not pulling the ball as much and he's hitting it on the ground more. Bad things!

 

Except, as we were discussing in yesterday's game thread, it's really only been a funk that he's been in for a week-and-a-half. Before Sunday's game, his GB% was exactly where it was at in 2015. And he's since put 6 consecutive batted balls on the ground. And his Contact% has been the same all year. That's not changed. So if he was able to make more contact and still get the ball in the air before this funk started, I don't buy the idea that he's not getting the ball in the air simply because he's trying to be a contact hitter. Until he started sucking ass last week, he was doing both.

 

Also, I don't think there's necessarily a problem with him not pulling the ball as much. For one, the article even mentions how much opposite-field power he showed in 2015. His wOBA on balls pulled last year was actually lower than balls hit up the middle or the other way.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=h_launch_direction&metric_1_gt=15&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&player_lookup%5B%5D=656941&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=h_launch_direction&metric_1_gt=&metric_1_lt=15&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

 

I think him pulling the ball is a good thing. That's where the mega-slugger guys do their damage. Him pulling the ball is good... when he's pulling it in the air with authority. But most of his pulling in 2015 was actually pulling the ball on the ground. His fly balls were spread out pretty evenly. His ground balls and, to a lesser extent, his line drive were pulled. His problem this year has been that he really hasn't been pulling any balls in the air. That's certainly a problem.

 

Here are his spray charts from 2015 and then 2017 from Baseball Savant.

http://i.imgur.com/krQvSrZ.png

http://i.imgur.com/QM2HwP8.png

 

He definitely needs to start pulling the ball in the air more. But, also, look at all those pulled ground balls in 2015. They didn't go for hits very often.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_hc_spray.php?s_type=15&gFilt=&time=month&player=656941&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

So I see no problem with him trying to go the other way on tough pitches that he can't pull with authority. The problem is that he isn't pulling with authority any of the pitches he should be. If he wants to slap a few more line drives or grounders into left field with two strikes on him, I'm all for that. He doesn't have to try to pull everything. He's got power everywhere. His main problem right now is that he's not hitting anything hard or in the air, though.

[Sammy Sofa]

Eh; I kinda don't have a problem with him being a three outcome guy if two of those outcomes are crushing and walking.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Eh; I kinda don't have a problem with him being a three outcome guy if two of those outcomes are crushing and walking.

 

Yeah, I think I can live with a poor man's Adam Dunn/rich man's Mark Reynolds as our 4th-6th best hitter for years to come.

[sneakypower]

Eh; I kinda don't have a problem with him being a three outcome guy if two of those outcomes are crushing and walking.

 

Yeah, I think I can live with a poor man's Adam Dunn/rich man's Mark Reynolds as our 4th-6th best hitter for years to come.

he's probably the worst fielding LF in baseball, so if he's our 4th-6th best hitter he's pretty useless

 

i think he's more likely to become our best hitter than 4th-best though

[David]

Eh; I kinda don't have a problem with him being a three outcome guy if two of those outcomes are crushing and walking.

 

Yeah, I think I can live with a poor man's Adam Dunn/rich man's Mark Reynolds as our 4th-6th best hitter for years to come.

he's probably the worst fielding LF in baseball, so if he's our 4th-6th best hitter he's pretty useless

 

i think he's more likely to become our best hitter than 4th-best though

 

idk...guys like upton and braun are really damn bad.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Yeah, I think I can live with a poor man's Adam Dunn/rich man's Mark Reynolds as our 4th-6th best hitter for years to come.

he's probably the worst fielding LF in baseball, so if he's our 4th-6th best hitter he's pretty useless

 

i think he's more likely to become our best hitter than 4th-best though

 

idk...guys like upton and braun are really damn bad.

Yeah, the idea that he's easily the worst LF in baseball is just not true. Physique and the 2015 playoffs are really the only reason to think that. That he's a non-amateur emergency catcher has to count for something, too.

[sneakypower]

stats even agree he's a construction barrel out there; -8 DRS / -2 UZR in career 480 IP, made just 17/22 plays within his zone this year (worst rate among qualifiers) and only tracked down 7 out of zone (tied for 2nd-fewest)...i realize it's way too early to make sweeping conclusions from D stats and these are filled with noise, but anybody honestly assessing him is going to be rightfully skeptical of his defensive abilities

 

the whole 2 innings he's served behind the plate are obviously of little import beyond fantasy eligibility

 

Yeah, the idea that he's easily the worst LF in baseball is just not true.

then who is?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

stats even agree he's a construction barrel out there; -8 DRS / -2 UZR in career 480 IP, made just 17/22 plays within his zone this year (worst rate among qualifiers) and only tracked down 7 out of zone (tied for 2nd-fewest)...i realize it's way too early to make sweeping conclusions from D stats and these are filled with noise, but anybody honestly assessing him is going to be rightfully skeptical of his defensive abilities

 

the whole 2 innings he's served behind the plate are obviously of little import beyond fantasy eligibility

 

Yeah, the idea that he's easily the worst LF in baseball is just not true.

then who is?

...whomever the Cardinals decide to play in left? Either that, or Braun, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Khris Davis and Jason Worth.

[Cubswin11]

stats even agree he's a construction barrel out there; -8 DRS / -2 UZR in career 480 IP, made just 17/22 plays within his zone this year (worst rate among qualifiers) and only tracked down 7 out of zone (tied for 2nd-fewest)...i realize it's way too early to make sweeping conclusions from D stats and these are filled with noise, but anybody honestly assessing him is going to be rightfully skeptical of his defensive abilities

 

the whole 2 innings he's served behind the plate are obviously of little import beyond fantasy eligibility

 

Yeah, the idea that he's easily the worst LF in baseball is just not true.

then who is?

...whomever the Cardinals decide to play in left? Either that, or Braun, Melky Cabrera, and maybe Khris Davis and Jason Worth.

Yeah saying he's "easily the worst LF in baseball" is a bit hyperbolic. The guys you listed are equally as bad, Cespedes can be really bad, Kemp is as bad out there too. I know they normally play RF but guys like Bautista, Trumbo and Bruce are just as bad or worse too when they do log innings in LF. Nobody is saying Schwarber is that great of a LF but he's passable and there's plenty of other of guys who are in the category of "worst."

[Banedon]

https://twitter.com/CTowersCBS/status/864927303926775808

[David]

He's also grading out positively as a LFer this season and as an OFer for his career in terms of UZR, for whatever you want to put into the sample size (260 innings this year, approaching 600 career).

[mul21]

He's also grading out positively as a LFer this season and as an OFer for his career in terms of UZR, for whatever you want to put into the sample size (260 innings this year, approaching 600 career).

 

I haven't seen any really egregious mistakes outside of that dropped foul ball the other day and the bad overthrow to 2nd. He's definitely not Adam Dunn or Matt Adams out there.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

https://twitter.com/CTowersCBS/status/864927303926775808

 

Spoken like someone unaware of the curse.

[sneakypower]

He's also grading out positively as a LFer this season and as an OFer for his career in terms of UZR, for whatever you want to put into the sample size (260 innings this year, approaching 600 career).

DRS grades him out as 'construction barrel'

[David]

He's also grading out positively as a LFer this season and as an OFer for his career in terms of UZR, for whatever you want to put into the sample size (260 innings this year, approaching 600 career).

DRS grades him out as 'construction barrel'

 

interesting...wonder why. a lot of guys in the middle part of the venn diagram (sucking by both systems). fowler, WOOF.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

[Aaron_Kennelly]

FWIW, DRS had Schwarber at -5 since about the 7th game of the season, and has barely fluctuated since. It seemed way out of whack to me early on. I'd say it's still too early to tell, but I think he's somewhere in between the two. BP's FRAA has him at -2. Splitting the difference between them has him right around -2, too.

 

DRS didn't like him in 2015 either, while UZR's thought he's about average his whole career.

[cubsclapp]

He's also grading out positively as a LFer this season and as an OFer for his career in terms of UZR, for whatever you want to put into the sample size (260 innings this year, approaching 600 career).

DRS grades him out as 'construction barrel'

 

interesting...wonder why. a lot of guys in the middle part of the venn diagram (sucking by both systems). fowler, WOOF.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a

 

lol Heyward is tied for the OF lead in DRS at +8 and he hasn't even played in two weeks.

 

And Addison Russell leads the majors at +9, despite missing some games recently and having a sore shoulder. I thought his throws the last few days had better zip on them so maybe that really was an issue earlier in the year.

 

But as for Schwarber, he's looked okay overall. He's not going to get to some plays other outfielders would, we know that. But he really hasn't looked lost out there or anything. As long as he's hitting (and he has been for a couple weeks now despite what the shitty results say), we'll live with it.

 

I'm much more interested in the metrics thinking Almora has been bad defensively this year. He needs to be really good out there to have much value, as the bat has predictably been exposed of late as the league figures out he will chase sliders 5 feet outside and weakly roll over them. And he can also help mask Schwarber's issues in theory if he's covering a lot of ground in the outfield.

[David]

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[sneakypower]

I'm much more interested in the metrics thinking Almora has been bad defensively this year. He needs to be really good out there to have much value, as the bat has predictably been exposed of late as the league figures out he will chase sliders 5 feet outside and weakly roll over them. And he can also help mask Schwarber's issues in theory if he's covering a lot of ground in the outfield.

i hate his impotent bat, but i'm still optimistic on his fielding

 

probably way too early to glean much meaningful info from his stats but they kind of support the idea he's ranged far to make some highlight reel plays, though he's fared poorly on more routine attempts; anecdotally it seems like a few situations deferring to others, or in-between hits he hasn't fully committed to- wonder about added assertiveness as he gains comfort

 

at any rate we're probably greedy to expect much better than a league-average starter

[David]

I'm much more interested in the metrics thinking Almora has been bad defensively this year. He needs to be really good out there to have much value, as the bat has predictably been exposed of late as the league figures out he will chase sliders 5 feet outside and weakly roll over them. And he can also help mask Schwarber's issues in theory if he's covering a lot of ground in the outfield.

i hate his impotent bat, but i'm still optimistic on his fielding

 

probably way too early to glean much meaningful info from his stats but they kind of support the idea he's ranged far to make some highlight reel plays, though he's fared poorly on more routine attempts; anecdotally it seems like a few situations deferring to others, or in-between hits he hasn't fully committed to- wonder about added assertiveness as he gains comfort

 

at any rate we're probably greedy to expect much better than a league-average starter

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[Liam Neeson]

So they did it.

 

[squally1313]

So they did it.

 

 

Interesting timing, given his .849 OPS in June. Granted, it was with a .196 batting average, and only 46 PAs, but still.

[Aaron_Kennelly]