Cubs offseason thread

[Cubswin11]

So, Jorge is going to have to hit a lot to be a 2-WAR player. Mark Trumbo for example as a DH/bad corner OF hit 47 dongs, had an .850 OPS, and had a 2.2 fWAR. Mike Napoli as a DH/bad 1B had 34 homers, an .800 OPS, and a 1.0 fWAR. Now, Soler is a step up from these guys defensively, but just shows how much he's going to likely have to hit to have much value.

hmm...Those represent a couple of pretty extreme guys for comparison. I get the point that you're making. But Trumbo almost literally does nothing well but hit HR. Napoli will at least walk, but provides *very* negative value in the field and on the bases.

I looked it up just because I was interested, Jorge (who most will say has sucked/failed expectations) still has a higher career BB%, BA, and OBP than Trumbo along with similar batted ball profiles. Kinda small SS for Jorge, but considering most thinks he's sucked it's crazy he's been better than Trumbo at a lot of things. Conversely it also points to whoever pays Trumbo the huge deal he's looking for is likely making a major mistake and misusing resources.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Is anyone saying Soler can't hit though? The reason people don't care(or even want him to be dealt) is because of the constant injuries and the poor defense, that'll keep his overall value down.

[davell]

Dave Schoenfield did a piece making a trade for every team. His Cubs deal was Soler for Luiz Gohara.

 

Value-wise, I can see it. I'd definitely prefer something closer to being ML ready though. For those that aren't familiar with Gohara. He's a 20 year old LHP from Brazil, that was the top ranked pitcher in his IFA class. He's had a few weight issues and has struggled somewhat at times, but put it together last year in A Ball. BA had him 11th in the MWL league top 20s. He throws very hard at times, supposedly touching 100. The upside is enormous, so I see that the value may be fair.....

 

Eno Sarris was asked in his chat yesterday who says no to a Soler for Wade Davis deal and said if the Royals were to add a reliever to it(just a guy, not Herrera, I'm interpreting), it'd be fair.....

 

 

Given those 2 options, I'd take the latter. But Soler for one year of Davis(coming off an injury) seems fairly meh to me, I'd prefer just signing a closer(even Holland) to using Soler for a rental.....

 

Hopefully Soler is moved for a starter, that's ready, already in the majors, or at least close.....

[Cubswin11]

Davis didn't even get his injury fixed, right? He just rested and still has a tear in his elbow? Hard pass

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Soler for a pitcher who split the year between the NWL and Midwest league is an unequivocally bad idea. Complete non-starter.

[Post Count Padder]

I keep coming back to the Blue Jays as a fit. Need help in the outfield, would give them another power bat. Is Soler and someone like Stinnett, Caratini or Dewees not enough for, say, Stroman?

[Post Count Padder]

Also, today is the last day to add players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Cubs currently at 34 on the roster.

[davell]

I keep coming back to the Blue Jays as a fit. Need help in the outfield, would give them another power bat. Is Soler and someone like Stinnett, Caratini or Dewees not enough for, say, Stroman?

 

I'd think a Stroman deal is straight up for Schwarber. No, I wouldn't make that deal, but Stroman is incredibly valuable. You're not getting him for bit parts.

[Tryptamine]

Soler for a pitcher who split the year between the NWL and Midwest league is an unequivocally bad idea. Complete non-starter.

 

Seriously, that's beyond underwhelming. Yes Gohara has a nice arm, but he's nothing special and still far away. I'd sooner let Soler rot on the bench then give him away.

[David]

Dave Schoenfield did a piece making a trade for every team. His Cubs deal was Soler for Luiz Gohara.

 

Value-wise, I can see it. I'd definitely prefer something closer to being ML ready though. For those that aren't familiar with Gohara. He's a 20 year old LHP from Brazil, that was the top ranked pitcher in his IFA class. He's had a few weight issues and has struggled somewhat at times, but put it together last year in A Ball. BA had him 11th in the MWL league top 20s. He throws very hard at times, supposedly touching 100. The upside is enormous, so I see that the value may be fair.....

 

Eno Sarris was asked in his chat yesterday who says no to a Soler for Wade Davis deal and said if the Royals were to add a reliever to it(just a guy, not Herrera, I'm interpreting), it'd be fair.....

 

 

Given those 2 options, I'd take the latter. But Soler for one year of Davis(coming off an injury) seems fairly meh to me, I'd prefer just signing a closer(even Holland) to using Soler for a rental.....

 

Hopefully Soler is moved for a starter, that's ready, already in the majors, or at least close.....

 

And this is why I don't want to trade Soler.

[Tryptamine]

What if it was Soler, Grimm, Jimenez, Happ, and Cease for Stroman, a prospect arm, and Pompey?

 

 

I'm not willing to bet that much on Stroman's arm holding up.

[KingCubsFan]

I wonder if the Mariners would be interested in a Soler for Taijuan Walker deal.

[UMFan83]

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/799776645888479232

[Post Count Padder]

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/799776645888479232

All the obvious choices.

 

I can definitely see any of:

John Andreoli

Stephen Bruno

Armando Rivero

Bijan Rademacher

Tyler Skulina

 

being taken.

 

Anyone else isn't likely worth a roster spot (too far away or not good enough). I am surprised they didn't roster Rivero.

[davell]

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/799776645888479232

All the obvious choices.

 

I can definitely see any of:

John Andreoli

Stephen Bruno

Armando Rivero

Bijan Rademacher

Tyler Skulina

 

being taken.

 

Anyone else isn't likely worth a roster spot (too far away or not good enough). I am surprised they didn't roster Rivero.

 

Jose Paulino is the guy I'm a bit worried about. He hasn't pitched above SB, but could be stashed. I think Rivero is a lock to get picked. His command must truly be pitiful, for us not to have rostered him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Rivero turns 29 before opening day.

[Cubswin11]

I think it's pretty clear the FO thinks next to nothing of Rivero. His numbers in 14' and last year were good/intriguing enough to warrant a Schlitter/Joe Smith type roster spot/audition and they didn't call him up then and didn't even give him a September call up..

[davell]

Rivero turns 29 before opening day.

 

Why does that matter? If anything, it just means you'd have him for 6 seasons and may not have to worry about ever giving him a multi- year deal.

 

He throws hard and K's a bunch of guys. I'll be extremely surprised if he's not added by someone.

[Cubswin11]

The Yankees DFA'd Eovaldi. I know he's probably dead but I think he'd be an okay guy to take a health risk/long-term flyer on as a relief pitcher reclamation project.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Rivero turns 29 before opening day.

 

Why does that matter? If anything, it just means you'd have him for 6 seasons and may not have to worry about ever giving him a multi- year deal.

 

He throws hard and K's a bunch of guys. I'll be extremely surprised if he's not added by someone.

 

Because having team control of a run of the mill bullpen prospect means less when he's going to start losing velocity halfway through that team control. Rivero is no different than any of the guys the Cubs play waiver roulette with every November, except the Cubs have been working with him for years and don't think he's worthy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Eovaldi is supposed to be out all of 2017 with TJS and is only one year from free agency, so you'd need to either sign him to a minor league deal or work out some multi-year/option contract.

[Cubswin11]

Eovaldi is supposed to be out all of 2017 with TJS and is only one year from free agency, so you'd need to either sign him to a minor league deal or work out some multi-year/option contract.

Didn't know that.... Guessing it will be a Holland situation next offseason then with a showcase type deal. Guessing he's gonna gamble on himself and not take anything stupid cheap now and no team is giving him anything decent. Thought he may have a few controlled years left.

[davell]

Rivero turns 29 before opening day.

 

Why does that matter? If anything, it just means you'd have him for 6 seasons and may not have to worry about ever giving him a multi- year deal.

 

He throws hard and K's a bunch of guys. I'll be extremely surprised if he's not added by someone.

 

Because having team control of a run of the mill bullpen prospect means less when he's going to start losing velocity halfway through that team control. Rivero is no different than any of the guys the Cubs play waiver roulette with every November, except the Cubs have been working with him for years and don't think he's worthy.

 

Obviously, the Cubs don't like him or they'd have added him. He may lose velo at some point. He may not though. If he's throwing mid to upper 90's currently, my guess is teams will look at what they see and not at the unknown. If anything, I could see a team trying to contend adding him and looking at it as buying cheap production for however long he lasts.

[Little Slide Rooter]

3 Guys I could see taken.

 

1. Dallas Beeler. In a weak free agent pitching market, a lot of teams are going to be stocking up on whatever they can get their hands on.

 

2. Bijan Rademacher's a safe bet for anyone looking for a 4th/5th OF. Could fall into the Bour/Guyer mold, and do well enough for a 'good for him,' but not a regret.

 

3. Dillon Maples: Your classic 'if we can get him to throw more strikes...' Not big league ready, but could split time between the back of someone's pen and the DL.

 

And then there's Black, Rivero, and Paniagua, who could be picked as easily as not. Though the Rule 5 tends to feature a multitude of guys just like them, or at least who serve the same purpose.

[toonsterwu]

I can see Beeler ... Rademacher? I guess not out of the question.

 

I'd be floored if someone took a chance on Maples. He's not ready for the bigs, doesn't seem like he has the stuff to presently get big leaguers out. Even a bad team can't afford to stash someone like that all year. I've been wrong before, and surprises do happen (Wei-Chung Wang getting plucked by the Brewers several years ago comes to mind, although that was a lefty with some raw stuff to work with, albeit down in rookie ball).

 

That said, if someone wanted to take a young arm flyer to stash in their pen and dump on the DL when possible, and then send them down to the minors in 2018 ... Ryan McNeil seems to make a ton more sense coming off the positive season he had at Myrtle Beach. Daury Torrez comes to mind as well, although I think McNeil is the more likely of the two.

 

None of the Rule 5 decisions really bothered me. I like Jose Paulino, but hard to see a team plucking him (unless it's a Wei-Chung Wang type of move). If so, there's no way Paulino was factoring into the big league picture this year, barring a surprise, so you tip your cap and move on.

 

My offseason thought has been focused on Hazen and the DIamondbacks, and namely, AJ Pollock, if he's healthy. That said, if Pollock is available, the bidding is likely to get costly. In the "it's stupid" block of thoughts, the Phillies are still rebuilding and I do wonder if a Odubel Herrera/Hector Neris trade could be worked out to shore up the pen and address CF? Again, this is in the "it's stupid" block as they probably aren't moving Herrera unless it's a superb deal.

 

A team I'm curious about are the Marlins. Fair or not, the death of Jose Fernandez, on paper, seems to really, severely damage their chances to compete with their current core. I do wonder if, in an attempt to win with Stanton, they might try some big moves. Unlikely, but I wonder.

 

Orioles/Astros deep pens make me wonder if something could be worked out (a couple other clubs fit the picture as well).