10/18 NLCS Game 3: Cubs (Jake) @ Dodgers (Rich Hill) & Stupid Old Umpire 7:00 PM CT FS1/670

[imb]

It's now a best of 5 with 3 in LA. I feel like I should panic. I'm not though for some reason. I think we win 2 out of 3 in LA and clinch Saturday in Chicago.

Look at the pitching match-ups for games 3 & 4 and that should calm any panic.

 

The Cubs do not have the pitching advantage in game 3

 

give me a blister or give me death

[imb]

Look at the pitching match-ups for games 3 & 4 and that should calm any panic.

 

The Cubs do not have the pitching advantage in game 3

 

Based on what?

 

how the two pitchers performed this year?

[Brian]

Hill's two postseason starts don't exactly fill me with fear.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Look at the pitching match-ups for games 3 & 4 and that should calm any panic.

 

The Cubs do not have the pitching advantage in game 3

 

Based on what?

 

How good the two have been at pitching respectively in 2016. Hill has like a full run advantage in FIP.

[UMFan83]

Congrats Rich Hill on your great 100 innings and change where you managed to pitch over 6.1 IP exactly twice. Are all the innings catching up to him? Well in his last 5 starts he has a 4.83 ERA and has averaged 4.1 IP per start.

 

It's stupid to feel good or bad about any game in this series where Lester or Kershaw isn't pitching. Extremely good chance that Hill won't pitch more than 5 innings and if Jake isn't super sharp he won't be going more than 6 either. This game will be decided by either a dominant God-mode Jake performance or the bullpens. If its the pen's, I still love being able to bring in Montgomery to either mow down their lefties or force Roberts to replace his lefties with righties to make it easier for Edwards and Strop later in the game.

Edited October 17, 2016 by UMFan83

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hill's two postseason starts don't exactly fill me with fear.

 

I don't think Dodgers are terrified of Arrieta's 10 ER in 17 innings in his last 3

[imb]

Congrats Rich Hill on your great 100 innings and change where you managed to pitch over 6.1 IP exactly twice.

 

It's stupid to feel good or bad about any game in this series where Lester or Kershaw isn't pitching. Extremely good chance that Hill won't pitch more than 5 innings and if Jake isn't super sharp he won't be going more than 6 either. This game will be decided by either a dominant God-mode Jake performance or the bullpens. If its the pen's, I still love being able to bring in Montgomery to either mow down their lefties or force Roberts to replace his lefties with righties to make it easier for Edwards and Strop later in the game.

 

That's a good point. I feel much better about our lineup being able to pitchcount Hill out by 5 (if we can't hit him) than I did about doing that to Kershaw.

[USSoccer]

 

The Cubs do not have the pitching advantage in game 3

 

Based on what?

 

how the two pitchers performed this year?

 

Hill is just as likely to be pitchcounted by the 5th or leave in the 2nd with blisters as he is to shut down the office for 6+. I get that Arrieta hasn't had a dominant year but I'd still rather have the guy who's demonstrated an ability to shut down teams and go deep in games against the guy who's been basically an above average to very good long reliever this year. If it ends up being bullpen v bullpen I like our chances.

 

Also, it's sort of disingenuous to cite FIP as the difference when the Cubs have a truly elite defense behind their pitchers. (@ Kyle, not you)

Edited October 17, 2016 by USSoccer

[UMFan83]

 

The Cubs do not have the pitching advantage in game 3

 

Based on what?

 

How good the two have been at pitching respectively in 2016. Hill has like a full run advantage in FIP.

 

All the Cubs pitchers have higher FIPs than their ERAs partially because of reasons we already know. You would know better than I would how that translates to evaluating Arrieta vs. Hill but I sense you are trying to make us all worry about an Arrieta/Hill matchup.

[Brian]

I was pretty down on the team after NLDS Game 3.

 

I've chose to be optimistic from here on out.

[imb]

Congrats Rich Hill on your great 100 innings and change where you managed to pitch over 6.1 IP exactly twice. Are all the innings catching up to him? Well in his last 5 starts he has a 4.83 ERA and has averaged 4.1 IP per start.

 

It's stupid to feel good or bad about any game in this series where Lester or Kershaw isn't pitching. Extremely good chance that Hill won't pitch more than 5 innings and if Jake isn't super sharp he won't be going more than 6 either. This game will be decided by either a dominant God-mode Jake performance or the bullpens. If its the pen's, I still love being able to bring in Montgomery to either mow down their lefties or force Roberts to replace his lefties with righties to make it easier for Edwards and Strop later in the game.

 

lol that 5 game sample is timed nicely to avoid mentioning the 7 no-hit innings he threw in the start before

[Brian]

Hill's two postseason starts don't exactly fill me with fear.

 

I don't think Dodgers are terrified of Arrieta's 10 ER in 17 innings in his last 3

 

Cool.

[DurbanJer]

Enough negativity. The series is tied 1-1. We need three more and have five games to do it. Road or home, we have the talent to win. We need to keep playing our game, working counts, and playing great defense. They say defense never goes into a slump and I think it will make the difference in this series.

[squally1313]

Rich Hill hasn't pitched this many innings in about 6 years. It's taken him 137 pitches to get through 7 innings over two starts this postseason, in which he has either very poorly (6.43 ERA, 4 walks) or pretty well (13 Ks, .533 BAPIP against, 3.86 FIP) depending on how you want to look at it. He was virtually unhittable over the regular season but averaged less than 6 innings per start. I think we can get to him, and if we can't, I think we'll have a shot at the non-Jansen part of their bullpen, and we saw how that went in Game 1.

 

It's two guys who basically spent most of the season doing their best Rich Harden impression. I'll take Jake when it counts.

[squally1313]

Congrats Rich Hill on your great 100 innings and change where you managed to pitch over 6.1 IP exactly twice. Are all the innings catching up to him? Well in his last 5 starts he has a 4.83 ERA and has averaged 4.1 IP per start.

 

It's stupid to feel good or bad about any game in this series where Lester or Kershaw isn't pitching. Extremely good chance that Hill won't pitch more than 5 innings and if Jake isn't super sharp he won't be going more than 6 either. This game will be decided by either a dominant God-mode Jake performance or the bullpens. If its the pen's, I still love being able to bring in Montgomery to either mow down their lefties or force Roberts to replace his lefties with righties to make it easier for Edwards and Strop later in the game.

 

lol that 5 game sample is timed nicely to avoid mentioning the 7 no-hit innings he threw in the start before

 

Oh now we're worried about sample size. When writing off the best offense in the National League, not so big of a deal.

[Flames24Rulz]

How about Contreras in LF, Baez at SS, Zobrist at 2B, Soler in RF, and Ross at C tomorrow? I'd feel pretty good that they'd be able to generate some runs with that kind of lineup.

 

How about leave Soler on the bench where he belongs, because he's terrible defensively and according to my unofficial stat tracking has struck out 100 times this postseason.

 

If you don't start him against Rich Hill, what's the point of even carrying him on the playoff roster then? He's a better hitter against LHP's than Heyward.

 

The defensive point is fair, but I don't see how you can have Heyward starting against a tougher lefty again.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Based on what?

 

how the two pitchers performed this year?

 

Hill is just as likely to be pitchcounted by the 5th or leave in the 2nd with blisters as he is to shut down the office for 6+. I get that Arrieta hasn't had a dominant year but I'd still rather have the guy who's demonstrated an ability to shut down teams and go deep in games against the guy who's been basically an above average to very good long reliever this year. If it ends up being bullpen v bullpen I like our chances.

 

Also, it's sort of disingenuous to cite FIP as the difference when the Cubs have a truly elite defense behind their pitchers. (@ Kyle, not you)

 

Ok, but their ERA difference is the same too

[UMFan83]

Congrats Rich Hill on your great 100 innings and change where you managed to pitch over 6.1 IP exactly twice. Are all the innings catching up to him? Well in his last 5 starts he has a 4.83 ERA and has averaged 4.1 IP per start.

 

It's stupid to feel good or bad about any game in this series where Lester or Kershaw isn't pitching. Extremely good chance that Hill won't pitch more than 5 innings and if Jake isn't super sharp he won't be going more than 6 either. This game will be decided by either a dominant God-mode Jake performance or the bullpens. If its the pen's, I still love being able to bring in Montgomery to either mow down their lefties or force Roberts to replace his lefties with righties to make it easier for Edwards and Strop later in the game.

 

lol that 5 game sample is timed nicely to avoid mentioning the 7 no-hit innings he threw in the start before

 

Well my argument is that he hasn't pitched 100+ innings in a season or at least in high minors/majors in several years I believe. His performance of late hasn't been nearly as sharp as it was for most of the season. Could be a statistically irrelevant blip, it could be arm fatigue, it could be the league re-figuring him out, it could be a combo of things. Either way, I'm not overly worried about a Rich Hill/Jake Arrieta matchup. Does it mean we are certain to win? No but I don't feel like we are at much of a disadvantage at all.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Fowler CF

Baez 2B

Bryant 3B

Rizzo 1B

Contreras C

Zobrist RF

Soler LF

Russell SS

 

Should be enough to send any LHP not names Kershaw into the fetal position.

 

And if Jake falters early, Wood or Montgomery can take on some innings vs. the lefty heavy lineup that Roberts is sure to send out.

[Boris]

A case of the Mondays after losing 1-0 in Game 2 of the NLCS. Awful.

 

Please win Cubs and make this week not as long.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Based on what?

 

How good the two have been at pitching respectively in 2016. Hill has like a full run advantage in FIP.

 

All the Cubs pitchers have higher FIPs than their ERAs partially because of reasons we already know. You would know better than I would how that translates to evaluating Arrieta vs. Hill but I sense you are trying to make us all worry about an Arrieta/Hill matchup.

 

I'm not saying we should worry. I'm saying it is silly to confidently state a pitching advantage. At best it looks like a wash. Arrieta really has been meh for awhile no matter how much we wish to deny it, but he does have a durability advantage.

[USSoccer]

How about Contreras in LF, Baez at SS, Zobrist at 2B, Soler in RF, and Ross at C tomorrow? I'd feel pretty good that they'd be able to generate some runs with that kind of lineup.

 

How about leave Soler on the bench where he belongs, because he's terrible defensively and according to my unofficial stat tracking has struck out 100 times this postseason.

 

If you don't start him against Rich Hill, what's the point of even carrying him on the playoff roster then? He's a better hitter against LHP's than Heyward.

 

The defensive point is fair, but I don't see how you can have Heyward starting against a tougher lefty again.

 

You carry him for PH duty where his one skill could theoretically help the team.

 

Heyward starts because he's still a generationally elite RF despite him turning into Augie Ojeda with the bat this year. Dodger Stadium has a pretty spacious OF; I'd rather not watch Soler lurch to balls hit to LF all night, especially given our offensive struggles.

[DouglasDorsey]

Jake seems to like pitching on the west coast. I believe the last time he pitched in dodger stadium, he walked away with a no hitter. We could use something like that again.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Incidentally, 538 has Game 3 as a pure 50/50 game.

[UMFan83]

Also, on top of all of that there was a note in the LA times today (I think....was an LA based publication) that there are concerns that Hill's blister issues may be re-emerging.

 

He has had constant blister issues since joining the Dodgers, missing a start as recently as September 25th, and from doing some quick googling may have been part of the reason he was ineffective in the NLDS.

 

Sorry guys you aren't going to make me scared about an Arrieta/Hill matchup.