Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-10-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa lost 7-0 Box Score

 

Tennessee had the day off

 

Myrtle Beach lost 2-1 (10 innings) Box Score

 

South Bend had the day off

 

Eugene won 12-4 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs lost 10-8 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 1 lost 2-1 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 won 5-4 Box Score

[Hrubes20]

Almora left the game today with an injured thumb. Haven't seen anything noteworthy on whether it is serious or not.

[davell]

That's your Almora argument? 70 AB's?

 

Almora is 17 months younger than Pompey. His ENTIRE AAA line is .312/.326/.434......

 

What is Pompey doing in his second go round in AAA? At close to a year and a half older?

 

.281/.349/.359

 

I've got no real issue if Almora is or isn't an everyday player for us. horsefeathers, he's probably better than Heyward currently.

 

But Pompey? If he can be had for scraps, fine. But that's about it. And yeah, it'd allow you to trade Almora. But only if Dex is kept.

[davell]

That's your Almora argument? 70 AB's?

 

he's probably better than Heyward currently.

 

Yeah, no to either of these

 

I most definitely did not just come up with that Almora opinion on 70 PAs, but they do contain the same slap happy no walk, no pop offensive game he's shown throughout the minors that we can expect at the ML level.

 

As opposed to the pop heavy .633 OPS Heyward has or Pompey's .708 in AAA being older and repeating?

 

They're horsefeathering mashers.

[Cubswin11]

That's your Almora argument? 70 AB's?

 

he's probably better than Heyward currently.

 

Yeah, no to either of these

 

I most definitely did not just come up with that Almora opinion on 70 PAs, but they do contain the same slap happy no walk, no pop offensive game he's shown throughout the minors that we can expect at the ML level.

 

As opposed to the pop heavy .633 OPS Heyward has or Pompey's .708 in AAA being older and repeating?

 

They're [expletive] mashers.

Well Almora is going to have to put up a .350+ BABIP along with a low-mid teens k% rate with his offensive profile to put up even a remotely decent slash line

[davell]

 

Yeah, no to either of these

 

I most definitely did not just come up with that Almora opinion on 70 PAs, but they do contain the same slap happy no walk, no pop offensive game he's shown throughout the minors that we can expect at the ML level.

 

As opposed to the pop heavy .633 OPS Heyward has or Pompey's .708 in AAA being older and repeating?

 

They're [expletive] mashers.

Well Almora is going to have to put up a .350+ BABIP along with a low-mid teens k% rate with his offensive profile to put up even a remotely decent slash line

 

I think you're misconstruing what I'm saying. I'm NOT saying Almora is great, or even good necessarily. I'm comparing him to a .633 OPS, which I do think he'd top and to a guy that outside of an outstanding 2014 rise thru the minors, has basically done very little. He's a bargain basement buy and not likely until he throws up another pedestrian season in 2017.

[davell]

Read my initial post. I said CURRENTLY on Heyward. His past horsefeathers doesn't matter, he's fucked up right now. Again, Pompey had one excellent minor league season. He had a 30 game stint back in AA in 2015 that was good too, but he's not had anything outside that noteworthy.

[TruffleShuffle]

so i guess clifton is one of our best pitching prospects?

[davell]

On a much more important note, Clifton goes 6 3 1 0 2 5.....

[davell]

Read my initial post. I said CURRENTLY on Heyward. His past [expletive] doesn't matter, he's [expletive] up right now. Again, Pompey had one excellent minor league season. He had a 30 game stint back in AA in 2015 that was good too, but he's not had anything outside that noteworthy.

 

- Almora's not currently better than Heyward either

 

- Pompey had one loud season that vaulted him to borderline elite prospect status, but has shown a wide and varied skillset throughout the minors (speed, defense, some pop, good contact skills despite having to put in the work on both sides of the plate). The role I'm looking to fill with this guy, that really makes little to no sense for Almora and was stated already, is a 4th OF/D sub/pinch runner one - basically what Baez is doing this year for the IF, but in the OF. The skillset is there for a valuable bench player, and the pedigree and youth are enough that maybe there's a starter to be mined out. If actually available, there's a fit as far as role and overall he is exactly the kind of post-hype player to take a serious look at. I'm sure there are other candidates as well, he's just one I favor early.

 

I'm pretty confident a full season of Almora THIS year is more valuable than Heyward THIS year, but to each their own. Technically, I'd rather have Almora defensively in CF, but Heyward defensively in RF.

 

Again, if you keep Dex and can grab Pompey off the scrap pile-fine. It allows for a possible trade including Almora. But if I'm losing Dex, I'm not trading Almora too.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

DJ Wilson not in Eugene's lineup for the second night in a row.

somebody check New Jersey

[craig]

Nice to see Clifton sequencing strong starts. His ERA is now under 3.

[CubsWin]

Nice to see Clifton sequencing strong starts. His ERA is now under 3.

Not only that, but he's going consistently deep into games for a 21 year old. In his last 5 starts, he's gone 6, 6, 6, 7 and 6. Not bad.

 

He's still got developing left to do, obviously, but as of now I'd give him an outside shot at becoming an MOR. If he can maintain a sub-3 ERA, a K per inning and less than a hit per inning as a 22 year old in AA, I'll feel a lot more confident.

[CubsWin]

Almora since going back to AAA: .279/.285/.397 (70 PAs)

 

If this guy is starting in CF next year I will be disappointed. Luckily he will not be....I'd like to point out that Dexter Fowler showed up on BP's statistical comps for Dalton Pompey last offseason. That guy would be the perfect 4th OF on this roster, though there is no clue why I have this belief he will be available for one of those under the radar type trades.

I see your point. He's never been a high on-base guy. The drop off from Fowler's numbers to his would be dramatic. Plenty of reasons to be disappointed if Fowler were to leave and be replaced by Almora.

 

But you gotta admit, choosing those 70 PAs (or any 70 PAs) and a player comp from BP (or any player comp from anywhere) might not have been the best way to make your case. That's some serious cherry picking. You makin' a pie?

[Tim]

Almora since going back to AAA: .279/.285/.397 (70 PAs)

 

If this guy is starting in CF next year I will be disappointed. Luckily he will not be....I'd like to point out that Dexter Fowler showed up on BP's statistical comps for Dalton Pompey last offseason. That guy would be the perfect 4th OF on this roster, though there is no clue why I have this belief he will be available for one of those under the radar type trades.

I see your point. He's never been a high on-base guy. The drop off from Fowler's numbers to his would be dramatic. Plenty of reasons to be disappointed if Fowler were to leave and be replaced by Almora.

 

But you gotta admit, choosing those 70 PAs (or any 70 PAs) and a player comp from BP (or any player comp from anywhere) might not have been the best way to make your case. That's some serious cherry picking. You makin' a pie?

 

What is this angle where we are pretending I just came up with this opinion about Almora yesterday based on the 70 PAs? I've been saying the same thing about him all year with the same folks, it's been argued a half dozen times, and there was no new argument being made by the 70 PAs that hasn't been made using his entire career's worth of PAs. I've also talked about Pompey before last night and his case relies very little on the BP comp, I wasn't making some big, definitive argument by casually pointing something out about the guy. Had I known he'd suddenly be a thing, I'd have restated his whole case in that post as I ended up doing.

He's not saying you formed the opinion because of the 70 PA. He's saying you used those 70 PA to make your case.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

What is this angle where we are pretending I just came up with this opinion about Almora yesterday based on the 70 PAs? I've been saying the same thing about him all year with the same folks, it's been argued a half dozen times, and there was no new argument being made by the 70 PAs that hasn't been made using his entire career's worth of PAs. I've also talked about Pompey before last night and his case relies very little on the BP comp, I wasn't making some big, definitive argument by casually pointing something out about the guy. Had I known he'd suddenly be a thing, I'd have restated his whole case in that post as I ended up doing.

He's not saying you formed the opinion because of the 70 PA. He's saying you used those 70 PA to make your case.

 

Which, given what we know I've said about Almora for a while now, is not actually what happened. That I put the numbers there and restated the same opinion I've been offering underneath doesn't really mean I was making a case based on those 70 PAs. To avoid what I still see as manufactured drama, all I'd need to have written there was "I continue to believe...."

 

Just an aside on Pompey. There are major major makeup issues with him.

[craig]

Nice to see Bailey Clark with a good outing. I thought he was strong/fast but wild. Small sample, but 13K/0BB is encouraging in terms of control.

 

Fun to see some effective pitching.

[craig]

so i guess clifton is one of our best pitching prospects?

..Rumors of the Cubs not having pitching to trade this offseason are overstated. There's enough depth at the A/A+ level loving to A+ and AA next year that they can fill something out behind the movable bats. Hell, Tseng and Hedges among hopefully others give them a more interesting/marketable AAA group than they've had.

 

They won't spend like last year, duh, but this is still going to be a pretty active and fun offseason where this FO can dig in and be more about clever buys through their traditional blend of thorough scouting and analytics.

 

Yeah, Tom, I'm really pleased to see a lot of effective pitching recently. Your point is well taken, that management won't be signing multiple external big-ticket FA's like the last two years, but may be active in some clever smaller-scale moves.

 

I think it will need to be some very small-scale moves for our pitching prospects to move the needle much, though. Cease and de la Cruz, yes, those guys could be significant pieces in a trade. But I don't think guys like Hedges, Tseng, Kellogg, Zastryzny,I don't think those guys will get you very far in a high-profile acquisition. Those are the types of guys to add as extra scraps to finish a deal for a back-of-roster guy like Montgomery (Vogelbach main guy; Blackburn a little extra value added); or an end-of-pen pickup like Joe Smith (Castillo); maybe a salary dump (Jeferson Mejia for Miguel Montero); . Sometimes those clever moves can make a big impact (Montero last year), so I don't at all mean to belittle their relevance.

 

I struggle to guess what the offseason will entail. Always tweaking, I'm sure. Big hinges will be $$$, Folwer, and Chapman. By most accounts they stretched/"got creative" to get Heyward, partly under assumption that this winter wouldn't be a plush FA winter. And then they stretched even further to bring in Fowler besides. Perhaps with a fantastic season, tons of jersey sales, hopefully significant post-season revenue, perhaps their revenue this year will be terrific, more than enough to cover those "stretch" signings.

 

Hopefully they'll have so much revenue that they'll be able to resign both Chapman and Fowler, and cover all the significant inflation on existing guys, and whatever they borrowed-ahead to sign Heyward/Fowler.

 

I'd pretty much love to basically retain exactly what they have now. Contracts for Cahill, Richard, Ross, and Travis Wood would come off, but basically if that was all they lost, it would be awesome. Those dollars aren't zero, but I can't imagine they'd get even remotely close to paying for built-in inflation.

 

Which rambles to: my guess is the "overachievement" pitchers (guys whose production seems better than their arms or stuff or scouting reports) don't really have the market buzz to get you a lot, so I think they'll basically keep almost all of them. (Kellogg, Hedges, Morrison, Tseng, Zastryzny types all fall in my minimal-trade-value "overachiever" pool.) Hammel and Lackey expire after next year. I think they'll largely want to keep those guys percolating in AA/AAA, in hopes that the best might emerge as acceptable 6th-starter/emergency options during next year; and perhaps 5th-starter replacement options for Lackey/Hammel for 2018.

 

5th starter pitches about as many starts as 1st starter during regular season. Last December, I'm guessing most posters would have classified Hendricks/Hammel as 4th/5th starters. One of the reasons the Cubs have an amazing record is because those 4th/5th starters both have <3 ERA's. So, it's not like replacing Hammel/Lackey with two crummy starters wouldn't have a huge impact.

 

Still, if you have a great bullpen, great defense, and a relentless offense, you can win a lot of games with an overachiever rotation guy. Throw strikes, you don't need a power arm to allow 1-3 runs in 5-6 innings during most of your starts. A great team can win a lot of games involving an anti-awful starter. Perhaps one or more from the Hedges/Clifton/Kellogg/Morrison/Zastryzny/Hedges pool will be able to provide that, or more.

[sneakypower]

Jeimer up to .304/.411/.509 (30 BB / 39 K) in 53G @AAA

 

current system #3?

[craig]

But I don't think guys like Hedges, Tseng, Kellogg, Zastryzny,I don't think those guys will get you very far in a high-profile acquisition

 

I'll get to this post later but can address this quickly - the pitchers are not doing the majority of the leg work in a trade. Teams are trading with the Cubs to land bats, pitching is just there largely to fill out the depth charts since the Cubs will be looking for pitching from those teams. Guys like Hedgesm Tseng, Kellogg, and Zastrzny are healthy and not terrible bets to throw ML innings, which is all that is really necessary - particularly since the Cubs do have upside arms to deal even around those guys as well as the more well known and regarded bats.

 

Throwins. Yes. Like Blackburn; like Rosscup in the Archer-Garza trade; like Leal in the big Campana/Castillo trade. Grimm obviously was scouted more favorably and had bigger arm, with 1st-degree pedigree and stuff, but he was kind of the 3rd-piece throw-in the Garza-Edwards/Olt trade. Our guys can be some small-nickel throw-ins like that, I agree. But they'll be about as insignificant as McKinney in the Chapman deal.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jeimer up to .304/.411/.509 (30 BB / 39 K) in 53G @AAA

 

current system #3?

 

Definitely.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

Which, given what we know I've said about Almora for a while now, is not actually what happened. That I put the numbers there and restated the same opinion I've been offering underneath doesn't really mean I was making a case based on those 70 PAs. To avoid what I still see as manufactured drama, all I'd need to have written there was "I continue to believe...."

 

Just an aside on Pompey. There are major major makeup issues with him.

 

What did he do? This is literally the first I've ever heard of that.

 

He's fired 4 agents since A-ball and got fired by 1. I actually sat down with one of his agents at the AFL in 14 and we talked extensively about him and the agent ended up dropping him because of his personality makeup and his father. I hit him up later to ask what happened and he basically said he didn't want to have anything to do with the time bomb that had been created. It was really some crazy horsefeathers but it was mostly his father that rubbed off on Pompey.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

What did he do? This is literally the first I've ever heard of that.

 

He's fired 4 agents since A-ball and got fired by 1. I actually sat down with one of his agents at the AFL in 14 and we talked extensively about him and the agent ended up dropping him because of his personality makeup and his father. I hit him up later to ask what happened and he basically said he didn't want to have anything to do with the time bomb that had been created. It was really some crazy [expletive] but it was mostly his father that rubbed off on Pompey.

 

I bet it's his dad since he's being repped by CAA sports, a major agency. Either way, sounds like something that could knock his trade cost down along with their new FO not being attached to him.

 

I'm sure there's similar guys out there besides Pompey too, just like the match and he seems like a more obvious name/target.

 

Oh yeah I like the tools. I just figured since I randomly spoke with his former agent for a few hours I could throw some random Dalton Pompey info out there.

[jumbo]

Hopefully they'll have so much revenue that they'll be able to resign both Chapman and Fowler, and cover all the significant inflation on existing guys, and whatever they borrowed-ahead to sign Heyward/Fowler.

 

I'd pretty much love to basically retain exactly what they have now. Contracts for Cahill, Richard, Ross, and Travis Wood would come off, but basically if that was all they lost, it would be awesome. Those dollars aren't zero, but I can't imagine they'd get even remotely close to paying for built-in inflation.

 

Assuming Fowler and Chapman go FA, players under contract are:

 

C: Contreras, Montero (Schwarber if we're lucky)

IF: Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant, Baez, LaStella/______

OF: Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Soler, Szczur

SP: Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, Hammel (assume the option is picked up)

RP: Rondon, Strop, Edwards, Grimm, Montgomery, ______, ______

 

Zobrist

Bryant

Rizzo

Contreras

Schwarber

Russell

Heyward

Almora

 

I could also easily see Schwarber in front of Bryant and letting Contreras slide down to the fifth spot. Almora hitting 8 with that top 6 (7 if Heyward comes back to life) is palatable. Still pretty stacked.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I imagine they'll add a LH OF if they don't bring back Fowler, could be a CF or a corner OF depending on how they feel about Heyward in CF. That gives a lot of flexibility to mix and match to shield Baez, Almora, the LH OF, even Schwarber.