Is Kris Bryant going to win MVP?

[jersey cubs fan]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards.

 

You can, and you must fault anyone and everyone who thinks this way.

[David]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards. A clutch stat is a very helpful descriptive stat to show how a player contributed to his team in that particular year, even if it should be completely dismissed for predictive purposes. And at least it is descriptive of what that player actually did unlike traditional more team based stats like wins or RBI's.

 

It's still happenstance based (much like RBI) and the player shouldn't get extra or reduced credit for happenstance.

[Tim]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards. A clutch stat is a very helpful descriptive stat to show how a player contributed to his team in that particular year, even if it should be completely dismissed for predictive purposes. And at least it is descriptive of what that player actually did unlike traditional more team based stats like wins or RBI's.

but using 11 PA to say someone doesn't deserve the MVP is...bad.

[CubColtPacer]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards. A clutch stat is a very helpful descriptive stat to show how a player contributed to his team in that particular year, even if it should be completely dismissed for predictive purposes. And at least it is descriptive of what that player actually did unlike traditional more team based stats like wins or RBI's.

but using 11 PA to say someone doesn't deserve the MVP is...bad.

 

Oh, sure. But I think the general point (that he may or may not have been trying to illustrate with the tiny sample size stat) is still valid. Bryant has been the second worst clutch player in baseball this year and that has helped make him only 73rd in WPA.

[Tim]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards. A clutch stat is a very helpful descriptive stat to show how a player contributed to his team in that particular year, even if it should be completely dismissed for predictive purposes. And at least it is descriptive of what that player actually did unlike traditional more team based stats like wins or RBI's.

but using 11 PA to say someone doesn't deserve the MVP is...bad.

 

Oh, sure. But I think the general point (that he may or may not have been trying to illustrate with the tiny sample size stat) is still valid. Bryant has been the second worst clutch player in baseball this year and that has helped make him only 73rd in WPA.

And for something like the MVP award, I'm fine with stating an argument like that. The bases loaded thing was silly, though.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah, I'm fine with looking at things such as clutch scores or WPA for MVP. They aren't really good stats and have little to no predictive value. But, if we are looking at what a specific player accomplished in a single year, I'm more than fine with it. There's a lot of luck involved in that stuff, but there's luck involved in nearly everything. If a player slugs his way to 55 home runs, we aren't going to hold it against him that he did it by running a 33% HR/FB rate, which most certainly isn't sustainable. He had a fair amount of luck involved in putting together such a great season. It's nearly impossible to strip luck out of every stat.

 

So, yeah, WPA can tell us a lot about a player's production in a specific season. But, we have to make sure we are looking at the whole picture, and not just some random 11 PA sample.

[Clem Fandango]

Dan Szymborski's Current MVP Prediction Percentages, according to an ESPN article:

 

Rizzo: 22.7%

Bryant: 19.6%

Murphy: 18.3%

Seager: 11.1%

Bruce: 4.9%

Ramos: 3.2%

Myers: 3.0%

Marte: 2.6%

Braun: 1.9%

Arenado: 1.6%

[UMFan83]

Dan Szymborski's Current MVP Prediction Percentages, according to an ESPN article:

 

Rizzo: 22.7%

Bryant: 19.6%

Murphy: 18.3%

Seager: 11.1%

Bruce: 4.9%

Ramos: 3.2%

Myers: 3.0%

Marte: 2.6%

Braun: 1.9%

Arenado: 1.6%

 

Shouldn't any MVP projection that gives Jay Bruce a 1-in-20 chance of winning the award be immediately dismissed?

[Clem Fandango]

It is quite a strange prediction, yes. Especially since he's been hot garbage since going to the Mets.

[bukie]

It is quite a strange prediction, yes. Especially since he's been hot garbage since going to the Mets.

The secret is he was hot garbage before being traded. MVP voters dig the long ball.

[UMFan83]

Do we have an official Bryzzo thread?

 

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/766409713915269121

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Do we have an official Bryzzo thread?

 

Yes, every thread in the Game Threads forum.

[Gilby]

Bryant passed Donaldson in fWAR after yesterday's game. Now tied with Altuve for second in all of baseball.

[UMFan83]

More Bryzzo sexiness

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kris-bryant-might-be-the-best-all-around-player-in-the-nl/

 

this is only a footnote in the article but yes I am here for the favorable Bryant/Trout comparisons please and thank you

 

Kris Bryant isn’t Mike Trout, of course. No one is. But if you look at the numbers over the last year, you might be surprised how close it is.

 

[bukie]

I'd like to see Bryant and Rizzo share the MVP, but they're more likely to split the vote so Murphy wins.

[UMFan83]

I'd like to see Bryant and Rizzo share the MVP, but they're more likely to split the vote so Murphy wins.

 

Maybe we can convince all the writers to write in "Bryzzo" for NL MVP.

[Careless]

More Bryzzo sexiness

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

Didn't realize Kent had such a good 2002. They combined for 20 fWAR, which I'd assume is a record

 

edit: mixed up Kent's 2000 and 2002 numbers. Still, 19, which winds up being a very little less than Rodriguez and Griffey

[Banedon]

There's a number of articles in the past few days saying what this one does....that Bryant is starting to pull away in the MVP race.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/cubs-slugger-kris-bryant-is-starting-to-pull-away-in-nl-mvp-race/

 

EDIT:

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/story/1698545-scout-hot-sheet-kris-bryant

 

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/kris-bryant-near-the-top-in-race-for-national-league-mvp/

[TruffleShuffle]

from the first link:

 

[tweet]

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we should send jeff luhnow a gift basket every offseason.

[bukie]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kris-bryant-might-be-the-best-all-around-player-in-the-nl/

 

this is only a footnote in the article but yes I am here for the favorable Bryant/Trout comparisons please and thank you

 

Kris Bryant isn’t Mike Trout, of course. No one is. But if you look at the numbers over the last year, you might be surprised how close it is.

 

Not only that, but he's probably getting close to Buxton in player value...

[Derwood]

abuck is awesome Edited August 23, 2016 by Derwood

[abuck1220]

nobody has ever said that, why are you wrong about everything.

[imb]

lmao i wanna know how derwood his original post was

[imb]

from the first link:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

we should send jeff luhnow a gift basket every offseason.

 

Somehow Mark Apell got worse when he left the PCL. that's a feat