Cubs 2016 #23-25 Prospects

[CubsWin]

Ok, so to get us to a round number (25), I'm putting up one last poll (though there could be a run-off if there aren't 3 clear winners). Please vote for your 3 favorite of the remaining prospects. The top 3 vote-getters will be named prospects 23, 24 & 25.

[CubsWin]

#1: Gleyber Torres

#2: Willson Contreras

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Ian Happ

#5: Billy McKinney

#6: Eloy Jimenez

#7: Dylan Cease

#8: Jeimer Candelario

#9: Duane Underwood

#10: Carl Edwards Jr.

#11: Eddy Julio Martinez

#12: Oscar De La Cruz

#13: Pierce Johnson

#14: Victor Caratini

#15: Mark Zagunis

#16: Donnie Dewees

#17: Bryan Hudson

#18: Dan Vogelbach

#19: Chesny Young

#20: DJ Wilson

#21: Jake Stinnett

#22: Trevor Clifton

[CubsWin]

Going once...

[Thrilho]

I voted yesterday for Blackburn, Williams, and Hannemann. I figured I'd like the bell go by and let Hannemann's hopes die on the 6 vote scrap heap, but it seems he wanted it enough to homer and make me write a post about him.

 

Even though his he's only sporting a .222/.318/.380 line, he's got some good stuff going. He hit his 5th HR tonight in 203 ABsvs 6 in 553 last year. BB%/K% of 10.2%/14.7% this year vs 7.1%/21.8% for 2014-2015. ISO of .158 vs last two years of .120. 17 for 20 in stolen bases.

 

And lot of that success this year has been off left handed pitching. His batting lines this year:

 

2016 AA

vs Left: .271/.375/.375 in 48 ABs

vs Right: .203/.295/.382 in 123 ABs

 

2015 AA

vs Left: .250/.319/.321 in 48 ABs

vs Right: .229/.283/.371 in 123 ABs

 

So for both 2015 and 2016, similar walk numbers from both sides of the plate, more power against righties, more contact against lefties. But he's so far added a little more power from both sides of the plate and has his BA up a bit against lefties. It should keep coming up from both sides, as he's sporting a .246 BABIP this year, compared with around .300 the rest of his career.

 

Then there's the fact that the Cubs have had him playing center and leading off for much of his career. Seems like they wouldn't have continually led off a guy with a career .309 OBP if they didn't think he'd eventually be good. There are definitely many examples of nobodies the Cubs have led off lately, but they seem to keep the prime spots for the prime guys unless there's an uber hitting journeyman who just has to hit 3rd.

 

Then they've let him play the CF position in 247 out of 319 games when there have been a lot of other decent CFs coming through the org at the same time. Seems like you'd want to save that position for guys who you'll be able to sell to other teams later as a center fielder, so again you'd save it for premium guys, particularly at the higher levels. And of course he's also not a pitcher, which nice.

[CyHawk_Cub1679840062]

Blackburn got a lot of play in this final round especially. I thought the scouting on him wasn't very glowing? I get he's putting up a minuscule ERA, but still can't fathom how he's doing it, and I won't start believing for a while.

[davell]

Blackburn got a lot of play in this final round especially. I thought the scouting on him wasn't very glowing? I get he's putting up a minuscule ERA, but still can't fathom how he's doing it, and I won't start believing for a while.

 

He's definitely got a back end of the rotation profile. But he pitches to weak contact and is very fluid in his delivery. His velo typically picks up as the season goes on to the point where he's likely going to be working 91-92, with movement, in July. He's got a nice CB and is considered a very smart pitcher. He's not got much of a ceiling, but I'd say he's a pretty solid bet to be more than a cup of coffee type of major leaguer. I was more excited about PJ AND Underwood at the time of the draft, but I'd probably lay money on him to be the one out of those 3 that makes the most money in the majors over their careers.

[CubsWin]

Going twice...

[toonsterwu]

I think we're sufficiently deep enough into the season that it's fair to ask how different would the Cubs Top Prospect List look right now. That said, one could argue that the order of this list's top 4 might stay the same, with the big question of where to place Eloy. I'd probably lean 4 (ahead of Happ), but I could see a case for 3 or 5. After that, it gets a bit tougher to figure out. For me, Cease is still up there in that 2nd 5, as is Candelario. I'd give strong consideration to moving Trevor Clifton all the way up, I still think Zagunis has a case for top 10. Edwards Jr. and Caratini could be in the mix. Maybe Hudson would be in the mix on upside. Much as I've hung on with Underwood, it's enough for me to slide him down, even though I still have some hope and I still think he could be an intriguing late inning arm.

 

I think I'd probably go something like

 

1a. Torres - Still lean towards him on talent and better May, but sure, I get Contreras

1b. Contreras

 

3. Almora

4. Jimenez

5. Happ

6. Cease

 

7. Candelario

8. Clifton

9. Edwards Jr.

10. Caratini

11. Zagunis

 

Feels like there could be a big shakeup after the top 2 in the next month or so, depending on how guys trend.

[CubsWin]

I think we're sufficiently deep enough into the season that it's fair to ask how different would the Cubs Top Prospect List look right now. That said, one could argue that the order of this list's top 4 might stay the same, with the big question of where to place Eloy. I'd probably lean 4 (ahead of Happ), but I could see a case for 3 or 5. After that, it gets a bit tougher to figure out. For me, Cease is still up there in that 2nd 5, as is Candelario. I'd give strong consideration to moving Trevor Clifton all the way up, I still think Zagunis has a case for top 10. Edwards Jr. and Caratini could be in the mix. Maybe Hudson would be in the mix on upside. Much as I've hung on with Underwood, it's enough for me to slide him down, even though I still have some hope and I still think he could be an intriguing late inning arm.

 

I think I'd probably go something like

 

1a. Torres - Still lean towards him on talent and better May, but sure, I get Contreras

1b. Contreras

 

3. Almora

4. Jimenez

5. Happ

6. Cease

 

7. Candelario

8. Clifton

9. Edwards Jr.

10. Caratini

11. Zagunis

 

Feels like there could be a big shakeup after the top 2 in the next month or so, depending on how guys trend.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. That's why I wanted to wrap this round up. So much has changed. The mid-season top 25 will look a lot different from the one we just created and it could even be different from the top 11 you have above. I've been impressed with how the Cubs developmental staff has performed of late. This is the most developmentally dynamic I've ever seen this organization. So many guys would stagnate before. Top prospects would struggle at the upper levels. There were never any Willson Contreras' or Ryan Williams' before. Of course, the Cubs didn't really have a cohesive developmental philosophy or top notch scouting staff until 4 years ago...

 

As it stands now, I like your list. Depending on how Hudson does in Eugene, I agree he could crack the top 11, but someone would have to fall off because that's a pretty solid group you've got there. Maybe McKinney or Underwood if they get really hot and stay that way. Some lower ceiling guys at 10 and 11, but Caratini and Zagunis have very solid floors.

[CubsWin]

...Gone. Let's close this round out now that we're at 25. We'll do another one after the All-Star break.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I think we're sufficiently deep enough into the season that it's fair to ask how different would the Cubs Top Prospect List look right now. That said, one could argue that the order of this list's top 4 might stay the same, with the big question of where to place Eloy. I'd probably lean 4 (ahead of Happ), but I could see a case for 3 or 5. After that, it gets a bit tougher to figure out. For me, Cease is still up there in that 2nd 5, as is Candelario. I'd give strong consideration to moving Trevor Clifton all the way up, I still think Zagunis has a case for top 10. Edwards Jr. and Caratini could be in the mix. Maybe Hudson would be in the mix on upside. Much as I've hung on with Underwood, it's enough for me to slide him down, even though I still have some hope and I still think he could be an intriguing late inning arm.

 

I think I'd probably go something like

 

1a. Torres - Still lean towards him on talent and better May, but sure, I get Contreras

1b. Contreras

 

3. Almora

4. Jimenez

5. Happ

6. Cease

 

7. Candelario

8. Clifton

9. Edwards Jr.

10. Caratini

11. Zagunis

 

Feels like there could be a big shakeup after the top 2 in the next month or so, depending on how guys trend.

 

Eloy has made the jump for me to #3. If you flip him and Almora, we'd have the same top 7.

 

ETA: Oh, and I'd flip Contreras and Torres too.

[toonsterwu]

I can get behind Eloy ahead of Albert. I was sort of torn - I'm not particularly high on Almora ... but I think he's close to ready and Eloy still has some concerns along with being further away.

 

Raisin, who would you fill out the top 10 with? I could probably go a million ways on the last 3 spots of a top 10 right now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can get behind Eloy ahead of Albert. I was sort of torn - I'm not particularly high on Almora ... but I think he's close to ready and Eloy still has some concerns along with being further away.

 

Raisin, who would you fill out the top 10 with? I could probably go a million ways on the last 3 spots of a top 10 right now.

 

Yeah, I could go a bunch of different ways too.

 

1. Contreras

2. Torres

3. Jimenez

4. Almora

5. Happ

6. Cease

7. Candelario

8. Edwards

9. Hudson

10. Caratini (could easily go with Clifton here and thought about Zagunis and Dewees too)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What are the odds Eloy is #1 prospect in the system at the end of the season? The All-Star break?

[davell]

What are the odds Eloy is #1 prospect in the system at the end of the season? The All-Star break?

 

I think he'll be 3 at mid season and 2 at year end. I think Torres is 2 at mid season, but will be dealt by the deadline. I don't think Contreras loses his prospect eligibility this year, so he stays 1 on both lists, as I don't see him getting dealt either.

[TomtheBombadil]

What are the odds Eloy is #1 prospect in the system at the end of the season? The All-Star break?

 

I'd rather wait and see who survives the two trade deadlines. Best I can do now is whichever of he or Torres survives the trade season will get it or fight for the #2 behind Contreras.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What are the odds Eloy is #1 prospect in the system at the end of the season? The All-Star break?

 

I'd rather wait and see who survives the two trade deadlines. Best I can do now is whichever of he or Torres survives the trade season will get it or fight for the #2 behind Contreras.

 

Can't not love Eloy's bat, but it's going to be hard for a slugging corner outfielder to overtake an offensively inclined and defensively serviceable shortstop and/or a catcher.

 

And unless we're talking something along the lines Fernandez, Tejeran (yes, I'm aware that one thing is not like the others,) or dare I say, Trout, I'm really hoping that we can hang on the three of them. And considering out limited needs, it's a safe bet that we can.

[craig]

What are the odds Eloy is #1 prospect in the system at the end of the season? The All-Star break?

 

Very substantial. Once Contreras graduates, it seems Eloy and Gleyber are pretty easy 1-2 guys, in whichever order.

 

That was some pretty smart and effective IFA work two summers ago, to get what will soon be our top two guys.

 

Hard to match that class, but hopefully this summer's IFA class will also be really successful, too.