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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26929524/your-eyes-get-big-why-kyle-hendricks-pitching-zone

 

Living upstairs in the strike zone -- or even higher -- is no longer just for the flamethrowers. The launch-angle era has changed strategies for many, including hurlers who average 87 mph on their fastball.

 

"I've been doing it more lately," Hendricks said last week. "The way the game is going, the way guys are swinging, I feel like more of the holes are being presented up in the zone now."

 

"More" might be an understatement. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Hendricks has thrown at least 40 pitches in the upper half of the zone in each of his past five starts. The results have been astonishing: he's 4-0 with a .198 batting average against, striking out 37 in 34⅔ innings pitched. For the season, Hendricks is climbing the ladder nearly 10 percent more than he ever has.

 

"Once you do it and see the swings, you get the confidence to do it more," Hendricks said. "I was a little more timid to do it but once you see those bad swings at the top of the zone, even on 88 or 86 mph, you start trusting it. You realize it's just a swing-path thing, and if I hit my spot, I'm going to get a bad swing."

  • 1 month later...
Posted

[tweet]

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The pessimist in me hates this stat, because I know it's going to end at the worst possible time.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
The most baller thing ever (yes, I'm talking about Hendricks) is when he could have tried for the double play, but instead he looked back the runner at third and calmly took the out at first. Like, no big deal, I'm going to get the next guy anyway. He wiggled off the hook a few times last night and made it seem effortless.
  • 1 month later...
  • 1 year later...
Posted
[tweet]
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Oh, conveniently cutting it off to exclude Zambrano? NOT COOL.

Na. Very cool. I feel like this acknowledges how much better Z was than anyone ever. He's the moment in history from which you measure time.

Posted
[tweet]
[/tweet]

 

Oh, conveniently cutting it off to exclude Zambrano? NOT COOL.

Na. Very cool. I feel like this acknowledges how much better Z was than anyone ever. He's the moment in history from which you measure time.

 

I got bored, so here's some numbers for some top "mashers" on the mound from the last few decades.

 

Mike Hampton - .246/.294/.356 ,16 HR, 67 wRC+

Carlos Zambrano - .238/.248/.388, 24 HR, 57 wRC+

Livan Hernandez - .221/.231/.295, 10 HR, 32 wRC+

Zack Greinke - .225/.263/.337, 9 HR, 60 wRC+

Madison Bumgarner - .177/.228/.303, 19 HR, 45 wRC+

Dontrelle Willis - .244/.287/.378, 9 HR, 75 wRC+

 

and the undisputed champ:

Micah Owings - .283/.310/.502, 9 HR, 104 wRC+

 

Surprisingly low on the list was Kerry Wood, with a .171/.196/.249, 7 HR, 9 wRC+ line. He would occasionally get a hold of one, but didn't do much else. I always thought he was better than that when I was younger. Oh well.

  • 4 months later...
Posted
That was a really good read. I'm a little surprised he didn't mention that Hendricks is fairly unique in that he also employs 2 changeups like he employs 2 fastballs. Because in theory even if he tunneled perfectly if you knew his count tendencies you could just guess right on changeup, but since the changeup can move either direction, you get weak contact galore, like the article proves.
  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

Not saying he should be near a favorite and even think he will win, but it’s just insulting Hendricks isn’t listed on here looking at some of the names included. I’d bet he out WARs a high percent of them if he doesn’t get hurt.

 

  • 2 months later...
Posted
So what's the deal? Is the "book out" on Hendricks? Is he tipping his pitches? He's getting clobbered, and it's not just the "Kyle usually sucks in April" thing
Posted
So what's the deal? Is the "book out" on Hendricks? Is he tipping his pitches? He's getting clobbered, and it's not just the "Kyle usually sucks in April" thing

Looking at a very high level, it just seems like he has no idea where his pitches are going. Basically a career high strike out rate, easily a career high walk rate, 15.6% barrel rate (previous high was 5.2%) which is the highest in the majors for anyone with more than 20 outings (though second is Ynoa, who made us look silly last night). I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's such a feel pitcher that the league constantly screwing with the ball finally put him in a tough spot, and he hasn't figured out how to make adjustments. Of course, tipping pitches would explain a lot of it too, but it doesn't seem like any particular pitch is getting crushed.

 

No one is ever going to give up a 35% HR/FB rate, even if they're squaring up everything. But the rest of the profile still adds up to really bad so far.

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