Baez impresses Baez

[BigSlick]

I'm never going to feel completely comfortable with Javy because his approach is so, so bad, but he's such a naturally talented athlete that he's a joy to watch. I said before in the gamethread that I want him and Russell playing infield for us for the next 10 years. He's also going to be the guy that I'm gonna shake my head at a few dozen times a season for swinging at junk, and that likely wont change.

 

But my god that monstrous home run he hit last night was delicious.

[Cubswin11]

I'm never going to feel completely comfortable with Javy because his approach is so, so bad, but he's such a naturally talented athlete that he's a joy to watch. I said before in the gamethread that I want him and Russell playing infield for us for the next 10 years. He's also going to be the guy that I'm gonna shake my head at a few dozen times a season for swinging at junk, and that likely wont change.

 

But my god that monstrous home run he hit last night was delicious.

This is pretty much how I feel. I have my doubts he can ever be a full-time player because his approach is so shitty, granted he has improved it a bit so that's not to say over the next 2-4 years we continue to see some incremental improvements. But his bat is good enough in certain spots and his defense is fantastic he should be getting about ~350 PAs where he is right now (when we are at full strength) and coming in as a defensive/base running sub. Hopefully as he grows he can do what Carlos Gomez did when he got to the Brewers as I view them as similar players at the young stages of their careers.

[Banedon]

I keep hearing "his approach is awful"...

 

It's been a whole month...I guess it's time for another Baez article Aaron...

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/29-an-improved-javier-baez

[sneakypower]

I keep hearing "his approach is awful"...

 

It's been a whole month...I guess it's time for another Baez article Aaron...

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/29-an-improved-javier-baez

he's been otherworldly going on 2 months now (.310/.351/.544) but he's still had 4% BBs & 25% Ks in that timeframe

 

and that's fine; Ian Desmond always seemed like the hope for him and he seems to be hitting his stride to maybe carve out that kind of career (possibly worth noting that Desmond is currently a top-5 position player for fWAR, after resigning to a 1y/8m FA deal)

[Clem Fandango]

That home run last night was seriously one of the best home run pimpings I've seen. No bat flip, but man that swing and reaction just oozes confidence and swagger.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v978783583/cwschc-baez-drills-a-towering-goahead-jack

[badger]

He's probably my 2nd favorite player on this team and there is no way I would have predicted that after 2014. I want him to succeed so badly.

[Guest]

I keep hearing "his approach is awful"...

 

It's been a whole month...I guess it's time for another Baez article Aaron...

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/29-an-improved-javier-baez

he's been otherworldly going on 2 months now (.310/.351/.544) but he's still had 4% BBs & 25% Ks in that timeframe

 

and that's fine; Ian Desmond always seemed like the hope for him and he seems to be hitting his stride to maybe carve out that kind of career (possibly worth noting that Desmond is currently a top-5 position player for fWAR, after resigning to a 1y/8m FA deal)

 

he's going to get terror walks.

[NOLA]

he's going to get terror walks.

http://www.carlswebgraphics.com/halloween/skeleton-sn-walk-1-w.gif

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Terror walks require not swinging at pitches outside the zone. Baez's O-Swing% is 44%, while league average is 29.8%. He has to make a change. He can and might, but external factors aren't going to drive up his walk rate.

[Guest]

:beg:

Terror walks require not swinging at pitches outside the zone. Baez's O-Swing% is 44%, while league average is 29.8%. He has to make a change. He can and might, but external factors aren't going to drive up his walk rate.

 

Obviously he has to lay off pitches. But he's made strides.

[StarlinOnYou]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

Other than Cano & Altuve what 2B is going to give you that OPS? I forgot Kinsler.

 

Maybe I am a lot higher on Baez than most, but I think he's going to hit just as well as Kinsler as he improves and Kinsler is a pretty damn nice player.

[Cubswin11]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

Other than Cano & Altuve what 2B is going to give you that OPS? I forgot Kinsler.

 

Maybe I am a lot higher on Baez than most, but I think he's going to hit just as well as Kinsler as he improves and Kinsler is a pretty damn nice player.

It's absurd to assume he's a .800+ ops player no questions asked with his profile. All it takes is some bad BABIP luck and his K rate to spike a bit and you are looking at maybe a .600 OPS player.

[jersey cubs fan]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

[StarlinOnYou]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

Other than Cano & Altuve what 2B is going to give you that OPS? I forgot Kinsler.

 

Maybe I am a lot higher on Baez than most, but I think he's going to hit just as well as Kinsler as he improves and Kinsler is a pretty damn nice player.

It's absurd to assume he's a .800+ ops player no questions asked with his profile. All it takes is some bad BABIP luck and his K rate to spike a bit and you are looking at maybe a .600 OPS player.

 

I refuse to believe .600 being possible. Not with the way he slugs and he's only going to get better.

 

If we were talking about Almora & his lack of power, sure.

[StarlinOnYou]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

[davell]

He's still improving. It won't shock me to see him get more selective over time. But its not going to be overnight. All the prospect reports said you'd need to be patient to see the final product. He's no where near finished yet and the upside is still immense.

[Cubswin11]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

With his current profile he's gonna have to carry a .340-.360 BABIP to get to that slash line. Which certainly is possible but if he drops to a .260 or so BABIP guy that slash line gets pretty ugly

[davell]

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

With his current profile he's gonna have to carry a .340-.360 BABIP to get to that slash line. Which certainly is possible but if he drops to a .260 or so BABIP guy that slash line gets pretty ugly

 

What percentage of MLB hitters BABIP .260 for a season?

[Cubswin11]

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

With his current profile he's gonna have to carry a .340-.360 BABIP to get to that slash line. Which certainly is possible but if he drops to a .260 or so BABIP guy that slash line gets pretty ugly

 

What percentage of MLB hitters BABIP .260 for a season?

Maybe that's a bit of hyperbole in my part but the point is he needs to maintain a relatively high BABIP to carry a decent slash line. How many guys carry a .340+ BABIP for an entire year that Javy currently has that also have his BB and K rates that aren't absolutely elite hitters?

Edited July 29, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I understand the concern about his plate discipline, but does it truly matter? He plays awesome defense all over the diamond and is going to OPS 800+ ..

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

 

Let's put this a different way. Baez has a 4% BB% and a 23% K%. In the last 5 years, there have been 11 qualified seasons with < 5% BB% and > 20% K%. No one did it more than once, and only 5 of those seasons were above average offensively. Baez needs to make an adjustment in some direction. His recent performance is encouraging, but there are additional steps to take.

 

EDIT: If you want a mental image to associate with a positive outcome for Baez, think of something like a Mark Trumbo/Starling Marte combo. That type of player fits in perfectly with the Cubs(I'd say a Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Baez sequence could be pretty great), but it's easy to see the downside too from that example. Trumbo has had some down years, and Baez isn't going to carry BABIPs like Marte to keep his production as high.

[davell]

With his current profile he's gonna have to carry a .340-.360 BABIP to get to that slash line. Which certainly is possible but if he drops to a .260 or so BABIP guy that slash line gets pretty ugly

 

What percentage of MLB hitters BABIP .260 for a season?

Maybe that's a bit of hyperbole in my part but the point is he needs to maintain a relatively high BABIP to carry a decent slash line. How many guys carry a .340+ BABIP for an entire year that Javy currently has that also have his BB and K rates that aren't absolutely elite hitters?

 

That's true. But he's still 23, super talented, and showing tons of improvement.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

 

Let's put this a different way. Baez has a 4% BB% and a 23% K%. In the last 5 years, there have been 11 qualified seasons with < 5% BB% and > 20% K%. No one did it more than once, and only 5 of those seasons were above average offensively. Baez needs to make an adjustment in some direction. His recent performance is encouraging, but there are additional steps to take.

 

EDIT: If you want a mental image to associate with a positive outcome for Baez, think of something like a Mark Trumbo/Starling Marte combo. That type of player fits in perfectly with the Cubs(I'd say a Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Contreras/Baez sequence could be pretty great), but it's easy to see the downside too from that example. Trumbo has had some down years, and Baez isn't going to carry BABIPs like Marte to keep his production as high.

 

FTFY?

[cubfro]

 

If he does that then of course it does not matter.

 

The issue is the approach tends to cause players capable of doing great things to not actually do great things. If he somehow manages to flail at a ton of stuff outside the zone but still produce, good on him. The concern is that things even out.

 

I envision Baez at around .270/325/465 right around 800 OPS.

 

I think many people underrate him bc many thought he would be a superstar. But, I think he settles around those numbers with a versatile glove. And I think he's a very valuable part of the future.

 

Let's put this a different way. Baez has a 4% BB% and a 23% K%. In the last 5 years, there have been 11 qualified seasons with < 5% BB% and > 20% K%. No one did it more than once, and only 5 of those seasons were above average offensively. Baez needs to make an adjustment in some direction. His recent performance is encouraging, but there are additional steps to take.

 

EDIT: If you want a mental image to associate with a positive outcome for Baez, think of something like a Mark Trumbo/Starling Marte combo. That type of player fits in perfectly with the Cubs(I'd say a Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Baez sequence could be pretty great), but it's easy to see the downside too from that example. Trumbo has had some down years, and Baez isn't going to carry BABIPs like Marte to keep his production as high.

 

Jay's decreased his K rate from 44% to 24% over the last two years. I'm not saying he'll get down to 4% by 2018, but I bet he gets under 20% next year and stays there. I'm not sure if how much he'll walk though. I'd be happy with 6% BB% from him.

[CubinNY]

People talk a lot about Sammy's reported steroid use, but he didn't become a good hitter and until he learned to lay off the pitches Baez flails at. It Sammy a few years to figure that out, hopefully Baez does too.

[Banedon]