2016 Trade Deadline

[raw]

Asking for Marcel Ozuna is nothing like asking for Kris Bryant, and I think Ozuna is a good player. We're not even 4 months removed from Ozuna trade rumors and lots of people being down on him as a player.

I wanted him for CF this offseason before we got Fowler back.

 

Yeah, I was big on Ozuna too. Really wanted to trade for him.

[SCCubbieFAN]

I wanted him for CF this offseason before we got Fowler back.

 

Yeah, I was interested in hopefully buying low, as the kids might say, and he fit. I'm very excited/interested to see who they do end up getting in the OF, if anyone, after Fowler. There's a player in the Blue Jays org I am kinda interested in buying low on, not necessarily for this deadline, but no need to really go into any kind of depth since there's probably nothing doing in the end.

 

 

I wanted the Cubs to go after JBJr. before they signed Heyward..... :(

[cubsclapp]

I forgot about Carlos Gonzalez until looking at MLBTR, but I'd be into the Cubs trading for him. I haven't exactly thought it all out but yeah, seems like he would make more sense than not.

 

I've thought about it for a while, but there are a few things to keep in mind that make you hesitant (and I assume all of this would add up to Theo not being big on it).

 

1. He's making $20 million next year. And the Colorado Rockies are unlikely to eat much of anything. It's not like the Yankees or Dodgers where you could probably toss them an extra prospect or two and they'll pay for much of the deal. And while perhaps the Cubs would allow that kind of payroll add in theory, it would probably prevent them from doing much of anything in the offseason.

 

2. He has a .737 OPS away from Coors Field. He has a 25.8% K rate away from Coors Field.

 

2015: .758 OPS and 24.4 K% way from Coors Field.

 

2014: .544 OPS, 28.2 K%

 

Of course, he seems to love the hell out of Wrigley, and some hitters just do extremely better at home. Can't expect Coors Field better, of course.

 

3. While he's not "bad", he's been a below average defender the last few years, mainly because he doesn't run as well as he used to. Playing a corner in Coors is brutal though, so maybe that's not a huge thing. And it would still be an upgrade over Soler and Coghlan.

 

4. And then there's Schwarber. What would that mean for Schwarber? They're both pretty much the same players: Big lefty power, blah corner outfield play, etc etc. Now, perhaps you could say that Cargo could find enough playing time next year between LF and RF, if Fowler is gone and they don't make another move there, where Heyward plays a lot of CF (with Almora playing a lot as well). But, I'm just getting to the point that the Cubs may not think that Cargo brings them enough of something different to justify them giving up prospects AND paying him big money next year.

[cubsclapp]

“We are still looking for a starter for a couple reasons,” Epstein said. “For the long-term, because we’re just not that deep organizationally in starting pitching, and because you can’t assume health.”

 

It took 84 games before the Cubs finally had to use a sixth starter. That’s why Epstein felt so encouraged by Adam Warren’s spot start in Wednesday’s 5-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds, showing the stuff — one run across five innings with six strikeouts and no walks — that helped push the Cubs toward the Starlin Castro deal with the New York Yankees.

 

“It’s a tough market for starting pitching,” Epstein said. “There are teams that are in probably more desperate straits for a starter that might pay a higher price than we would. But we’ll see. We’re going to pursue all avenues.”

 

But it’s obvious the Cubs need bullpen reinforcements, whether or not the Yankees ultimately sell and break up the Big Three of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. Maddon used Kyle Hendricks — who’s not scheduled to make his next start until after the All-Star break — to throw two scoreless innings against the tanking Braves (29-57) before closer Hector Rondon blew his fourth save in his last eight chances in the ninth.

 

“That’s certainly an area that we would look to upgrade externally and also internally,” Epstein said. “If I had to make a prediction, I’ll say that we’re going to get some help from somebody who’s currently in the ‘pen, but not locked in yet. At least one of those guys will lock in and pitch really well. And then someone who’s not with us now — but he’s still in the organization — will come up and pitch really well.

 

“And then I think we’ll add. There’s a good chance that we’ll make a deal that will help us in the ‘pen as well. When things don’t go well, there’s always a rush to look outside, especially this time of year.

 

“It’s important, and we’re doing it. But it’s really important to remember that Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard and Justin Grimm threw really big innings in the postseason for us last year. And they are certainly capable of doing it again.”

 

Mooney/CSN Chicago

[Little Slide Rooter]

Red Sox Acquire Aaron Hill

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/brewers-trade-aaron-hill-red-sox.html

 

I suppose this is kind of notable. Hill's quietly rebounded yet again to the tune of a 1.7 WAR, and Boston sends a pair of prospects- a 20 year old AA 2B and a 27 year old AAA SP. Looks like a pretty fair exchange.

[Tim]

I was looking at Jake McGee this morning to see if he would be a good fit. Not only are the results down, but he has lost three ticks since 2014.

 

Not a good option there.

[CubinNY]

So, who are we selling to a contender?

[Little Slide Rooter]

So, who are we selling to a contender?

 

Nobody. Because who would want any of these losers. Amiright?

[Guest]

what would it cost to get Ryan Braun? I assume Schwarber at least.

[Tryptamine]

what would it cost to get Ryan Braun? I assume Schwarber at least.

 

With Braun's contract, constant health issues and history, no way. If the Cubs were to take the entire contract they could probably get away with nothing but 2nd tier prospects.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Braun is now a poor man's Nelson Cruz owed 4/76 after this season. His trade value for his full contract is almost literally zero.

[Tryptamine]

So, who are we selling to a contender?

 

Hammel back to the O's for Bundy

 

I find this funny only because just today I was reading over on OH how they weren't willing to give up Bundy in a deal for Sonny Gray.

[Sammy Sofa]

what would it cost to get Ryan Braun? I assume Schwarber at least.

 

What? No. He's old and costs a ton.

 

Though I'd happily give up Vogelbach for him.

[abohnhoff]

Since I mentioned two other Rockies, why not Jon Gray? At 24 he's not so young that it is garaunteed he will be around when they contend again,and if he is it will likely be at arb prices. He's not exactly so good for them either, though the talent is obvious. He checks the boxes as far as being a big, healthy, power rotation arm.

 

It's so easy to imagine a match with so many teams for so many players. This deadline is going to be fuuuuun...

 

I dont think the Rockies are in a position to trade young, cost-controlled starting pitchers. In fact, he should be exactly what they are looking for in return.

 

Ryan Madson has seem to found the fountain of youth. 17-20 in save opportunities, 2.75 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Shouldn't be too expensive.

[Guest]

Braun is now a poor man's Nelson Cruz owed 4/76 after this season. His trade value for his full contract is almost literally zero.

 

Eh, more like a younger Nelson Cruz. But in any case, good, offer them Vogelbach and someone else. He can still mash.

[Little Slide Rooter]

How horrible of an idea is Ervin Santana, assuming we relieve the Twins of the bulk of his contract, rather than a big time prospect or prospect package?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Braun is now a poor man's Nelson Cruz owed 4/76 after this season. His trade value for his full contract is almost literally zero.

 

Eh, more like a younger Nelson Cruz. But in any case, good, offer them Vogelbach and someone else. He can still mash.

 

Won't happen. It's one thing to trade a player, even a star to a rival if it benefits both sides. But Ryan Braun is more than a baseball player to Milwaukee. He's an icon. Warts and all, they adore him. If they were to trade him to Chicago, who Milwaukee views as its rival in terms of more than sports (which is absolutely adorable,) the PR backlash would be tremendous, and I'm not so sure that the Brewers could survive it.

[Tim]

Just checking out Julio Teheran, by that I mean I watched the bottom of the second of his start against the White Sox....93-94 with the four seam, he threw a strike with 4 different pitches, and got whiffs on his fastball, slider, and changeup in the inning. Works quickly too, gets the ball back and is set to throw almost immediately. I continue to be pretty convinced this guy would be a great fit with the Cubs.

He also gave up five to a below average offense.

[davell]

What makes him a bad target is the asking price. They supposedly want either Moncada or Benintendi, plus more, from the Sox. He's not a guy they have to move and I see no reason whatsoever to pay enough to MAKE them trade him now.

 

Give me Rich Hill.

[davell]

What makes him a bad target is the asking price. They supposedly want either Moncada or Benintendi, plus more, from the Sox.

 

Is that like when the Phillies were coming after all the Bryants and Russells in baseball?

 

I'd love Hill too. Hill does not solve the longer term SP depth issues and won't be super duper cheap to trade for either, but he fits.

 

You do remember the Phillies didn't even trade Hamels that year, right?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just checking out Julio Teheran, by that I mean I watched the bottom of the second of his start against the White Sox....93-94 with the four seam, he threw a strike with 4 different pitches, and got whiffs on his fastball, slider, and changeup in the inning. Works quickly too, gets the ball back and is set to throw almost immediately. I continue to be pretty convinced this guy would be a great fit with the Cubs.

He also gave up five to a below average offense.

 

Fortunately that does not suddenly make him a bad pitcher or bad target. Momentary/Single game results over a handful innings for a guy with his background are tertiary at best.

 

Such as Chris Sale being rocked for 8 runs by an even worse offense the night before.

[Tim]

He also gave up five to a below average offense.

 

Fortunately that does not suddenly make him a bad pitcher or bad target. Momentary/Single game results over a handful innings for a guy with his background are tertiary at best.

 

Such as Chris Sale being rocked for 8 runs by an even worse offense the night before.

I don't disagree, I just thought it was a funny time to be raving about the guy.

[davell]

Last year, the asking price wasn't ridiculous. It is NOW, there's no way Theo buys at the top of the market.

[davell]

Last year, the asking price wasn't ridiculous. It is NOW, there's no way Theo buys at the top of the market.

 

Last year the Braves were coming after Soler and Contreras according to the rumors. Captilizing now does nothing for me, the whole fear mongering of rumored asking prices died when Hamels went for solid but not franchise crushing prospects. Invoking Theo does nothing for me either, otherwise I'd speak for him casually all the time too. The FO will buy the best talent for the short and long term that the farm system can afford to trade for. There will probably be a mix of both at the deadline since what they've built is here to stay beyond 2016.

 

Last year, they would have done Soler for Teheran, straight up. They want MORE now, than they did then. Its not a hard concept to follow. Its the same as when the Phillies did NOT trade Hamels. At some point in the next year, the Braves probably will lower their price on him or just decide to keep him, period. But, by all means......Please reference me some trades where Theo paid true, absolute top prices for. Teheran isn't happening right now. Quote me, whatever.....Theo even said some teams are going to pay more than us this year, based on more of a true need.

[davell]

So, what're we looking at for buyers and sellers.....

 

Buyers- Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays,Yankees, Indians, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Nats, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers

 

Of those, its conceivable a few of the Yankees, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or Mariners change course or just hold at the deadline.

 

Sellers- Rays, Twins, A's, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies

 

Team Needs

 

O's- OF and SP

Red Sox- SP and BP

Blue Jays- SP

Yankees- SP(outgunned hitting-wise, easiest team to look at and figure they'll sell obviously)

Indians- 3B, OF, BP

Tigers-SP, BP

Royals- 2B, 3B, OF, SP

White Sox- OF, SP

Rangers-SP, BP

Astros-OF, SP

Mariners-1B, OF, BP

Nats- OF, BP

Marlins- SP

Mets- 3B, OF

Cubs- OF, SP, BP

Pirates-SS, BP

Cards-OF,BP

Giants-OF, BP

Dodgers-OF, SP, BP

 

 

I may be a bit off on needs, by a Fangraphs glance, I wouldn't list SP as a need for us, if I weren't a fan of the team. But, this should be fairly close.....

 

Little bit harder to identify what exactly some of the sellers will sell. But I'll try and add to this later on this evening. If anyone has other needs for some of the buyers, let me know.