Talk Arrieta here

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/08/03/jake-arrieta-just-something-hes-never-done/

 

 

Arrieta’s fearsome breaking ball has been described as baby slider or “slutter” because it doesn’t sweep across the plate like normal sliders do. Rather, the sharp-moving pitch is thrown upwards to 92 mph and with around 3.5 inches of horizontal movement. Brooks Baseball’s pitch classification algorithm categorizes Jake’s slutter as a slider, not cutter. That changed Wednesday night.

 

For the first time in Arrieta’s career, his slutter was categorized as a cutter.

 

Why did Brooks Baseball suddenly change its classification of the pitch? Could it be velocity? Or horizontal movement? Vertical movement? No to all. Using those three measurements, there is no significant difference between Arrieta’s cutter from Tuesday night and what has been called a slider throughout his career.

 

The difference was his release point.

 

 

Again, Brooks Baseball has never before classified Arrieta’s slutter as a cutter, and the reason for this new classification likely has to do with the ginormous release point difference between Wednesday night and every start prior to it. Since his release point was so significantly different from his career norm, perhaps Arrieta made a conscious effort to change something.

 

The cutter classification of Arrieta’s slutter night makes it one of the rarest pitches in MLB since the league started tracking this kind of data. The bearded righty’s cutter release point hewed more toward third base than over 99.9 percent of cutters thrown since the genesis of the PitchFX era. Hitters simply have never seen something like this before. Ever.

 

This is a big deal.

 

Eh... that's a little deceptive. Every pitch that he threw was from a different arm angle. He's throwing more and more across his body as the year goes along.

 

For instance, his last start... average sinker horizontal release point was -3.61 feet. Slider was -3.7. Last night, sinker was -3.81 and "cutter" was -3.91. It's not like he only changed the slider. I'm not saying that's not why they are calling it a cutter. But, it's not like he just changed that pitch.

[Cubswin11]

http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/08/03/jake-arrieta-just-something-hes-never-done/

 

 

Arrieta’s fearsome breaking ball has been described as baby slider or “slutter” because it doesn’t sweep across the plate like normal sliders do. Rather, the sharp-moving pitch is thrown upwards to 92 mph and with around 3.5 inches of horizontal movement. Brooks Baseball’s pitch classification algorithm categorizes Jake’s slutter as a slider, not cutter. That changed Wednesday night.

 

For the first time in Arrieta’s career, his slutter was categorized as a cutter.

 

Why did Brooks Baseball suddenly change its classification of the pitch? Could it be velocity? Or horizontal movement? Vertical movement? No to all. Using those three measurements, there is no significant difference between Arrieta’s cutter from Tuesday night and what has been called a slider throughout his career.

 

The difference was his release point.

 

 

Again, Brooks Baseball has never before classified Arrieta’s slutter as a cutter, and the reason for this new classification likely has to do with the ginormous release point difference between Wednesday night and every start prior to it. Since his release point was so significantly different from his career norm, perhaps Arrieta made a conscious effort to change something.

 

The cutter classification of Arrieta’s slutter night makes it one of the rarest pitches in MLB since the league started tracking this kind of data. The bearded righty’s cutter release point hewed more toward third base than over 99.9 percent of cutters thrown since the genesis of the PitchFX era. Hitters simply have never seen something like this before. Ever.

 

This is a big deal.

 

Eh... that's a little deceptive. Every pitch that he threw was from a different arm angle. He's throwing more and more across his body as the year goes along.

 

For instance, his last start... average sinker horizontal release point was -3.61 feet. Slider was -3.7. Last night, sinker was -3.81 and "cutter" was -3.91. It's not like he only changed the slider. I'm not saying that's not why they are calling it a cutter. But, it's not like he just changed that pitch.

You just shut your dirty whore mouth, Duke, and quit talking about Jake and anything else possibly good with the team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maybe I'm being a stick in the mud, but the breathless single start evaluations of pitch f/x numbers seem so tedious. Arrieta throws a super slider now! Hendricks' velocity has dipped so much that Contreras eats a sandwich while waiting to receive them! Wade Davis's Troublesome lack of Movement! (three days later) Wade Davis is BACK! It's just not insightful to me.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Here's that same chart, but with sinker and slider/cutter.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mn4Z5F6.png

 

Doesn't look like anything has changed with slider, other than that he just was more across his body, overall.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

He was throwing his slider faster and with more movement than he was getting in July, though. So maybe it will work better from that arm angle. But who knows if that's why it was different. Or if it will stay different.

[David]

it is sort of interesting that the pitch (or any pitch he has thrown) was never once picked up as a cutter until last night tho

[North]

Here's that same chart, but with sinker and slider/cutter.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mn4Z5F6.png

 

Doesn't look like anything has changed with slider, other than that he just was more across his body, overall.

 

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider.

 

My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

it is sort of interesting that the pitch (or any pitch he has thrown) was never once picked up as a cutter until last night tho

 

For sure. But, I think it maybe (probably?) could have been for the past month +. He simply hasn't been getting the same movement on it as he used to, so it falls more on the cutter side. Since it's a hybrid, it's hard to classify. But it can lean in either direction, simply by adding more speed or taking some off to get more break.

[North]

it is sort of interesting that the pitch (or any pitch he has thrown) was never once picked up as a cutter until last night tho

 

For sure. But, I think it maybe (probably?) could have been for the past month +. He simply hasn't been getting the same movement on it as he used to, so it falls more on the cutter side. Since it's a hybrid, it's hard to classify. But it can lean in either direction, simply by adding more speed or taking some off to get more break.

 

I initially thought that would be why it's classified as a cutter too, but that's not true. The movement he generated with the cutter crosses over to the movement range he generates with the slider. The trajectory at which he threw the pitch + the movement he generated was why it was classified as a cutter. It wasn't just the movement.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Here's that same chart, but with sinker and slider/cutter.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mn4Z5F6.png

 

Doesn't look like anything has changed with slider, other than that he just was more across his body, overall.

 

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider.

 

My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast.

 

Oh, I agree that the classification is significant -- as is the release point difference. I just think that it is hard to tell if he actually "changed" anything about the pitch. It is possible that he and Bosio worked on things and found his stuff played better at that angle.

 

But I think he's slowly been drifting more towards "cutter" status. Velocity going up from start of year; movement down. Interestingly, I feel like it was more of just a nasty cutter in 2015. And by the start of this year, it was basically just a slider. Then I think it reverted back to cutter status by June (albeit a much less nasty one). And then last night was a return to near-2015 levels... which combined with release point change is significant.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

it is sort of interesting that the pitch (or any pitch he has thrown) was never once picked up as a cutter until last night tho

 

For sure. But, I think it maybe (probably?) could have been for the past month +. He simply hasn't been getting the same movement on it as he used to, so it falls more on the cutter side. Since it's a hybrid, it's hard to classify. But it can lean in either direction, simply by adding more speed or taking some off to get more break.

 

I initially thought that would be why it's classified as a cutter too, but that's not true. The movement he generated with the cutter crosses over to the movement range he generates with the slider. The trajectory at which he threw the pitch + the movement he generated was why it was classified as a cutter. It wasn't just the movement.

 

Agreed. I'm just saying, it was more of a gradual shift to that status, as he's lost movement on it. Since it's a hybrid, he's probably been straddling the cross-over threshold. By month, velocity going up, not dropping as much vertically, not breaking as much horizontally.

 

And, you're right, the most noticeable difference is the release point. All the other stuff will fluctuate from game-to-game. Horizontal movement has been up and down, etc. So that was most likely the tipping point.

 

The most interesting thing to me last night was that his velocity and horizontal movement were both up from his July averages. It was definitely a better pitch last night. That much is for sure.

[North]

Here's that same chart, but with sinker and slider/cutter.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mn4Z5F6.png

 

Doesn't look like anything has changed with slider, other than that he just was more across his body, overall.

 

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider.

 

My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast.

 

Oh, I agree that the classification is significant -- as is the release point difference. I just think that it is hard to tell if he actually "changed" anything about the pitch. It is possible that he and Bosio worked on things and found his stuff played better at that angle.

 

But I think he's slowly been drifting more towards "cutter" status. Velocity going up from start of year; movement down. Interestingly, I feel like it was more of just a nasty cutter in 2015. And by the start of this year, it was basically just a slider. Then I think it reverted back to cutter status by June (albeit a much less nasty one). And then last night was a return to near-2015 levels... which combined with release point change is significant.

 

I was able to significantly associate his in-game release point variability with the amount of slider movement he generated in 2016. So essentially the more inconsistent he was with the pitch, the less movement it generated. That was right around the same time he started to cut his slider usage down a ton. So I think he's been fighting with the "feel" for the pitch for a while.

 

I'm not sure that he consciously wanted to change the way the slider moved. I think it's more he wanted to change something mechanically, which resulted in the difference of pitch classification. Your point of the sinker being different too is a really good one, which is why I think it's more of a total mechanical tweak. The "cutter" is basically the same slider by velo and movement standards, it was just being thrown from a completely different tunnel.

[David]

north and duke going back and forth about baseball stuff

 

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider.

 

My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast.

 

Oh, I agree that the classification is significant -- as is the release point difference. I just think that it is hard to tell if he actually "changed" anything about the pitch. It is possible that he and Bosio worked on things and found his stuff played better at that angle.

 

But I think he's slowly been drifting more towards "cutter" status. Velocity going up from start of year; movement down. Interestingly, I feel like it was more of just a nasty cutter in 2015. And by the start of this year, it was basically just a slider. Then I think it reverted back to cutter status by June (albeit a much less nasty one). And then last night was a return to near-2015 levels... which combined with release point change is significant.

 

I was able to significantly associate his in-game release point variability with the amount of slider movement he generated in 2016. So essentially the more inconsistent he was with the pitch, the less movement it generated. That was right around the same time he started to cut his slider usage down a ton. So I think he's been fighting with the "feel" for the pitch for a while.

 

I'm not sure that he consciously wanted to change the way the slider moved. I think it's more he wanted to change something mechanically, which resulted in the difference of pitch classification. Your point of the sinker being different too is a really good one, which is why I think it's more of a total mechanical tweak. The "cutter" is basically the same slider by velo and movement standards, it was just being thrown from a completely different tunnel.

 

Yeah, he definitely lost the feel for it. And he completely lost confidence in it, for good reason, as the pitch has been getting hammered. And the different tunnel might be the most important thing. Maybe the mechanical tweak was because he knew his slider wasn't as nasty, so he wanted to go more across his body to make it even harder to pick up? If the stuff isn't as good, and he excels because he throws the ball weird, why not get weirder? If he can't get more out of his velocity, why not get more out of the other thing that makes him tough to hit?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

1.69 ERA since the start of July. I really can't believe it. After his second-half last year and then the loss of velocity and him being brutal to start this year, I thought he was cooked. He's about to be:

 

[Cubswin11]

1.69 ERA since the start of July. I really can't believe it. After his second-half last year and then the loss of velocity and him being brutal to start this year, I thought he was cooked. He's about to be:

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1.69 ERA since the start of July. I really can't believe it. After his second-half last year and then the loss of velocity and him being brutal to start this year, I thought he was cooked. He's about to be:

 

He horsefeathering told the world this was coming and he just flipped the switch almost immediately. I really feel like he's gonna throw a 3rd no hitter before the year is up.

 

Probably in the World Series.

 

How many teams do you guys think would offer him 6+ years?

[Brian]

If he goes '14 MadBum as a parting gift this October I wouldn't be mad.

[imb]

Still want nothing to do with him but buddy, you're doing strong work

[Cubswin11]

 

How many teams do you guys think would offer him 6+ years?

I'd be shocked if anyone guaranteed 6 years for him, maybe he gets 6 in option years and/or incentives reached but I can't see 6 guaranteed happening. Unless, for whatever reason, his market doesn't materialize and all it takes is like 6/100 to get him. And going 6/100 is what it takes to beat like 5/90-95 type offers.

[Tim]

I hope we ride him like a rented mule in the postseason and then wish him well with his new team.

[UMFan83]

I had a dream last night that the Cardinals signed Jake and then he started retweeting or responding positively to every Trump tweet. Ok it was a nightmare.

 

But in all seriousness, who would Jake's suitors be? There's only a handful of teams that can probably pay him what he's asking. The Red Sox have invested a lot in pitching in recent years so I think they are out. The Yankees are a legit possibility. The Dodgers have seventy bajillion pitchers and a payroll higher than many counties GDP but they are never out. I'm guessing if the Cardinals were big spenders this offseason it would be for hitting but never dismiss them making a reckless FA signing out of spite. Actually, to be honest this totally seems like the type of move the Angels would come out of nowhere to make.

[weis21]

I had a dream last night that the Cardinals signed Jake and then he started retweeting or responding positively to every Trump tweet. Ok it was a nightmare.

 

know i'm sidetracking the thread here, but did you literally have this dream/nightmare? i'm always amazed by people who seeming have "normal" or "coherent" dreams. like, my dreams (i rarely remember them) are normally SUPER weird and don't really make sense. occasionally i'll have one that (barely) makes sense and features real people but for the vast majority of times it's just like some crazy alternate world with a stream of crazy images and characters and content and i wake up and i'm like "wtf was that all about daniel?" i mean it's not like i'm doing anything wrong in them, but, there're just...weird

 

[i need one person to like this post to ensure i'm not a crazy person dreamer]

 

...

 

[or a legit crazy person]

[d_money]

I had a dream last night that the Cardinals signed Jake and then he started retweeting or responding positively to every Trump tweet. Ok it was a nightmare.

 

But in all seriousness, who would Jake's suitors be? There's only a handful of teams that can probably pay him what he's asking. The Red Sox have invested a lot in pitching in recent years so I think they are out. The Yankees are a legit possibility. The Dodgers have seventy bajillion pitchers and a payroll higher than many counties GDP but they are never out. I'm guessing if the Cardinals were big spenders this offseason it would be for hitting but never dismiss them making a reckless FA signing out of spite. Actually, to be honest this totally seems like the type of move the Angels would come out of nowhere to make.

Rangers

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UMFan83]

I had a dream last night that the Cardinals signed Jake and then he started retweeting or responding positively to every Trump tweet. Ok it was a nightmare.

 

know i'm sidetracking the thread here, but did you literally have this dream/nightmare? i'm always amazed by people who seeming have "normal" or "coherent" dreams. like, my dreams (i rarely remember them) are normally SUPER weird and don't really make sense. occasionally i'll have one that (barely) makes sense and features real people but for the vast majority of times it's just like some crazy alternate world with a stream of crazy images and characters and content and i wake up and i'm like "wtf was that all about daniel?" i mean it's not like i'm doing anything wrong in them, but, there're just...weird

 

[i need one person to like this post to ensure i'm not a crazy person dreamer]

 

...

 

[or a legit crazy person]

 

Yes, was a legit dream haha. I don't have vivid recognizable dreams every night, or if I do I forget them quickly but every so often (lets say 1-2 times a month) I have a dream that sticks in my head for longer than 1-2 minutes after waking up. When big sporting events are upcoming I frequently dream about them. During the 2016 season I had so many dreams where I was watching playoff games half the time they choked and lost and the other half they were up big and about to advance to the World Series or something and I woke up.