NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

[bukie]

Well it's that time of year again, time to watch college basketball for a month until baseball gets going.

 

This is the 12th annual NCAA Mock Tourney selection committee. To participate, be prepared to send 3-4 lists of teams every day starting Tuesday next week until Sunday next week. It should take about an hour of time each day to do so, if that, and I'll collate all the information and we'll pick teams, seed them, and bracket them, just like the real selection committee does (though they do have software for selection...one day I'll get there).

 

In order to participate in the committee, send me (or post in the thread) the following things by the end of Tuesday, March 8 (11:59 PM CST):

1. Your favorite team/representative team. In the normal committee, a committee member can't comment on any team they represent. The real committee represents conferences, but if I did that here, nobody would be able to talk about the Big Ten.

2. Your list of 36 at large worthy teams, assuming nobody wins their automatic bid. So in an apocalyptic conference tournament world, which 36 teams get at-large bids anyway? You could do this in order to skip step 4, or just toss the teams in there and rank the top 16 separately.

3. Your list of other teams that should be considered for at-large bids.

4. Your list of top 16 teams, in order.

 

Feel free to discuss the process and teams freely in the thread, and I'll keep updating this post and other posts later with the progress of the committee, from the teams that win auto bids to the teams that are locked onto the board, to the teams that fall off the board, to the seed list, to the bracket.

 

The official committee makes use of RPI to analyze the teams, which is a tool so old and obsolete it's long become a joke, so I don't like to use it. I'd like to think our task here is to select the teams that deserve it along side the committee, not so much try to predict what the actual committee will do.

 

That said, here are some resources I like to use for analysis:

KenPom ratings

Sagarin ratings

Massey Comparison Ratings (seriously there are about 30 different ratings there)

Real Time RPI (hey just because it's obsolete and useless doesn't mean it doesn't exist)

 

Automatic bids:

1. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley

2. Yale - Ivy

3. UNC Asheville - Big South

4. Florida-Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun

5. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

6. UNC Wilmington - Colonial

7. Chattanooga - Southern

8. Iona - Metro Atlantic

9. Green Bay - Horizon

10. Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast

11. South Dakota State - Summit

12. Gonzaga - West Coast

13. Patriot

14. America East

15. Mid American

16. ACC

17. Big East

18. Big 12

19. Big Sky

20. Big West

21. Conference USA

22. Mid-Eastern

23. Mountain West

24. Pac-12

25. Southland

26. SWAC

27. WAC

28. Sun Belt

29. SEC

30. Big Ten

31. American

32. Atlantic 10

Edited March 9, 2016 by bukie

[bukie]

Also note, I didn't link anyone else's bracketology or selection, because we're not trying to mimic anyone else, we're picking our own teams.

[bukie]

Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.

[bukie]

One other thing, don't include ineligible teams in your lists. I know SMU and Louisville specifically are ineligible, and there's a bunch of teams ineligible for NCAA APR failures. I'll see if I can find a list somewhere.

[Tim]

Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.

Man, that's going to throw things way off this year.

[UMFan83]

Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.

Man, that's going to throw things way off this year.

 

I'm sure the committee will take into account the Illini's variety of injuries, suspensions and dismissals and gift them an at-large bid.

[bukie]

So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:

[Tim]

So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:

I'm not sure I've watched a game that didn't include the Illini this year.

[bukie]

So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:

I'm not sure I've watched a game that didn't include the Illini this year.

To be fair, the Illini weren't really in those games either.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd contribute during the week, but am leaving for Vegas that Thursday around 3.

[bukie]

Anyone can contribute what they can in the thread over the next two weeks.

[bukie]

Ineligible teams:

SMU (American)

UMass-Lowell (America East)

Louisville (ACC)

Sttetson (Atlantic Sun)

Southern Miss (CUSA)

Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

Florida A&M (MEAC)

Abilene Christian (Southland)

Central Arkansas (Southland)

Incarnate Word (Southland)

Alcorn State (SWAC)

Pacific (WCC)

Grand Canyon (WAC)

[bukie]

From the "no teams this year are really good" narrative, the top rated team on KP right now has a Pythagorean of .9465, the lowest Pyth by a top team since Pomeroy started doing his ratings 14 years ago. Six teams last year had a high Pythagorean.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have a hard time seeing Kansas missing on a 1 seed.

Same for Nova If they beat GTown, They should be able to survive a BE Tourney loss as long as it's not to DePaul.

[SouthSideRyan]

2 tourneys started today in the Atlantic Sun and Patriot. Neither with at-large potentials, but North Florida at least has potential to be a 14 seed type off the top of my head.

 

America East, Northeast, and Ohio Valley start tomorrow, with the Northeast winner likely headed to a 16 seed, and if it's not Wagner, seems a lock for a play-in game. Handful of teams from AE and OVC who could get as high as 14.

 

Not to much in terms of potential bid thieves this week other than Wichita, and then YMMV on St. Mary's, Gonzaga, BYU, Valpo, and Monmouth.

[SouthSideRyan]

Interesting maybe only to me:

 

Stetson is banned from the tournament due to APR, but are still allowed to participate in the ASun tourney. The rules state if they win the tourney, the regular season champ gets the bid. So if North Florida and Stetson both win on Thursday, North Florida will clinch the bid, and the championship game will mean nothing.

[biittner77]

There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?

[UMFan83]

I'm putting Iowa on my bubble, try and stop me

[bukie]

Iowa's resume has basically gone from Michigan State to Wisconsin in two weeks.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?

 

Their mascot is the Hatters, no joke.

[mul21]

There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?

 

Their mascot is the Hatters, no joke.

 

Not nearly as ridiculous as the team in my high school conference, the Polo Marcos. It's real, look it up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

incredible

 

http://polo222.org/home/IL07122200004/images/marcoman.JPG

[woodchip2153]

I can't believe they have that nice of a graphic, and I don't think they have most of those sports anymore.

[bukie]

In the A-Sun semis, Florida-Gulf Coast upset North Florida, and Stetson won its second straight upset game to make the finals, so if Stetson wins the final, North Florida makes the NCAA tournament, and if FGC wins, they make the tourney.

[bukie]

Big games in the Ivy league this weekend, where Yale and Princeton are essentially tied with two to play. If they finish tied they will have a one game playoff for the automatic spot.