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Projecting the 2016 Cubs

David

By David,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Looking at last year's team, the position players got approx 5850 PA.

 

Montero 403 (in 113 games)

Rizzo 701

Russell 523

Castro 578

Bryant 650

Coghlan 503!!!!

Fowler 690

Soler 404

Schwarber 273 (in half a season)

Denorfia 231

Ross 182 (in 72 games)

Herrera 132 (and a 56 OPS+)

Szczur 80 (and a 67 OPS+)

Baez 80

Jackson 79

LaStella 75

Baxter 66

Lake 62

Castillo 47 (in 24 games)

Al Contra 32 (OPS+ of -12...thats minus 12)

Olt 16

Teagarden 15

Berry 1

 

First reaction: there was some real garbage on this team. I don't see the likes of Olt, Contra or Teagarden on the team at all, nor the likes of Lake, Baxter Szczur and Herrera getting 300 AB's.

 

So what do those 5850 (lets call it 5900 since we see the offense improving) PAs go?

 

First we put Bryant, Rizzo and Heyward 650 (San Francisco led the league in OBP last year and no one had more than 623 plate appearances - 701 for Rizzo led the league last year) and basically giving Heyward Coghlan, and Denorfia's and Bryant his from last year exactly. That improves the team enough if we stop there! Seriously, replacing Coglan and Denorfia with Heyward?!

 

Next we Jackson's 79 AB's and 45 of Fowler's to Soler giving him 483.

 

Give Russell Castro's 578 and Zobrist Russell's 523

 

Fowler drops from 690 to 600 PA's

 

Schwarber gets his own 273, Castillo's 47, Teagarden's 15 and 60 of ross's (there's no reason for ross to be in 72 games. this leaves him 50 games and 122 PA's), 45 from fowler and 80 from Sczcur Giving him 520 PA's

 

Give Herrera's 132 to Baez to go with his 80 leaving him at 212 (I HATE THIS)

 

Montero stays at 403 in 113 games. He's not limited by injury this year, just by demand.

 

 

That is 11 players getting over 5675 PA's, last years top 10 took 5119.

 

last year this team used 23 position players, let say they use 19 this year.

 

LaStella, Baxter, Lake, Contra, Olt and Berry, totaled 252. Add the 50 extras we expect and that leaves 302 PA's for the bottom part of the roster which could include

 

LaStella, Kawasaki, Alcantara, Szczur, and 4 September call-ups

 

Bryant 650

Rizzo 650

Heyward 650

Soler 483

Russell 578

Zobrist 523

Folwer 600

Schwarber 520

Baez 212

Montero 403

Ross 122

Lastella 70

Kawasaki 70

Contra 52

Szczur 50

Sept callups 60

 

Obviously these are just projections and could change with an extended injury to one of the big three. But clearly there's room for quality major leaguers. I would also suggest that any injury would result in more plate appearances for Baez. No matter who you assume is injured, there's a way to adjust to get Baez PT. (Fowler would take the most movement: Heyward for Fowler, Soler for Heyward, Zobrist for Soler, Baez for Zobrist. I can't find a team with less than 20 position players throughout the year, but I don't see a way that this team has more than 19.

 

TL;DR This is one of the most top heavy offensive rosters I've ever seen. With Soler and Baez Scratching for PA's, and Schwarber and Zobrist's flexibility this roster is uniquely and ideally constructed. It is unheard of for a team to have 9 players with over 400PA's, but I don't see any way that this team DOESN'T.

 

Still TL;DR So many good players! Team will be good.

Yep. I cannot wait for the season to start.

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Thusly Boned Draft Eligible

Thusly Boned

Old-Timey Member
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Morrisey is a hack, and I'm pretty sure Gordo has a giant hate boner for the franchise.

 

That said, the tiny superstitious voice I've driven to the dark recesses of my mind screams "DOOM! JINX!" every time I read one of the fluff pieces.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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there's nothing wrong with gordo's article.

 

he asks if all the antics are making a bigger target for opponents, but gives Maddon and Hammel plenty of room to defend the practices, and hardly goes all in against the circus.

Thusly Boned Draft Eligible

Thusly Boned

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
there's nothing wrong with gordo's article.

 

he asks if all the antics are making a bigger target for opponents, but gives Maddon and Hammel plenty of room to defend the practices, and hardly goes all in against the circus.

 

tbh, I hadn't read either of them for the reasons I mentioned.

 

Having just read Gordo's, it is pretty benign.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
3 of 6 Fox Sports guys picked the Cubs to win the WS. One picked KC, one picked the Pirates, and one picked the Cards.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/expert-picks-predictions-royals-cubs-blue-jays-mets-astros-dodgers-giants-rangers-033116

 

Only one person in the group even picked the Pirates to make the playoffs which seems crazy.

 

CJ Nitkowski sucks, and I don't care if its one of those 'you suck because you didnt pick my team' things.

 

 

Keep posting predictions as they come out, this is fun.

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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anyone recall if we started 09 ranked number one?

 

09 and 04 are the ones that jump out at me as possibilities

soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
All the CBS ppl have the Cubs winning the division, and 2 of 5 have the Cubs winning the WS. Two of them have Rizzo as MVP.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25533630/mlb-predictions-for-2016-divisions-postseason-world-series-awards

 

EDIT: HA! two of them have Dusty as manager of the year.

 

He'd be my bet for MoY this year. Washington underperformed due to injuries and Matt Williams so they were already a prime bounce-back candidate. If they win 90+ games and make the playoffs, he's going to be pointed to as part of the reason why.

Tracer Bullet Knoxville Smokies

Tracer Bullet

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
All the CBS ppl have the Cubs winning the division, and 2 of 5 have the Cubs winning the WS. Two of them have Rizzo as MVP.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25533630/mlb-predictions-for-2016-divisions-postseason-world-series-awards

 

EDIT: HA! two of them have Dusty as manager of the year.

 

He'd be my bet for MoY this year. Washington underperformed due to injuries and Matt Williams so they were already a prime bounce-back candidate. If they win 90+ games and make the playoffs, he's going to be pointed to as part of the reason why.

 

Yep

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