Admin

Here's a quote from today's edition of The Athletic: “You know what happened to me?” Tom Ricketts told The Score’s morning team of Mike Mulligan and David Haugh on Thursday. “We had the lowest-rated panel last year so the guys cut us. (loud laughter from the hosts) It’s true. I think people would rather watch the mascot play bingo than listen to the owners speak. Like the fact is that we had a low-rated panel, it got kind of dull over the years, because a lot of the questions were the same. And it’s funny to me, I saw a headline, somebody wrote like, ‘Ricketts family cancels popular panel at Cubs Convention’ and the fact is we were the lowest-rated panel. So if people want us to come back next year, fill out the forms, we’d be happy to do it again, but we just thought we were boring people, honestly. (more host laughter) We’re happy to do it again. I like talking to people. I think I’m the most accessible owner in sports. I talk to people all the time. I answer my emails." I am making a public invitation: please come here to North Side Baseball for questions from a collection of your most hard core fans. Because we would *love* to chat and we have a few questions for you. If you're up for it, please email me at timdstuart@gmail.com. Thanks!

Looking to improve on their 26th ranked bullpen over the 2016 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks have signed some familiar bullpen names to minor league deals over the last week. Both Kevin Jepsen and Brian Matusz will look to capture past success for the Diamondbacks and catch on with the big-league club in 2017, and Arizona will need at least one of them to do so for them to have a chance in the NL West next season. After a Heritage Sports Review of the odds I noticed that Arizona is priced at +12000 to win the world series, meaning they are going to need some changes to get more public and oddsmakers support for 2017. Arizona’s 26th ranking last year was based on wins above replacement, or WAR, and the value of their bullpen against replacement level players. By ERA the Diamondbacks were ranked 27th with a bullpen ERA of 4.94. They also gave up a ton of home runs, with their HR/9 coming in at 1.16 on the season – good for 22nd in the MLB. With no lockdown closer to speak of, and basically not many leads to protect, the Arizona bullpen only racked up 31 saves on the year too. Compare that with the best bullpen in the league for saves, the Texas Rangers, who picked up 56. Kevin Jepsen brings the most recent string of success to the Diamondbacks minor league reliever pile, having a great 2015 season before coming off the rails in 2016. Arizona will be on the hook for a $2.25 million salary should Jepsen make the final roster out of camp, and for Arizona I’d think they’d be glad to pay it if Jepsen returns to form. Between time with the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins in 2015, Jepsen put up a 2.33 ERA over 69.2 innings out of the pen. But those numbers come with a bit of a caveat, as he ran a .242 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that year, which is over 60 points below his career average. BABIP is a statistic most likely to regress to mean, as it is based on luck, so I take his 2015 career year with a bit of salt. However, if Jepsen can rediscover that form he makes a great fit for the Diamondbacks, as he keeps the ball in the yard. His career 8.4% HR/FB rate is excellent against the 13.1% that the Arizona bullpen ran as a team last year. Brian Matusz becomes just the third lefty on the 40-man roster for the Diamondbacks, so his chances of making the team coming out of camp are pretty good for that reason alone. Matusz is a classic lefty on lefty specialist, with southpaws only batting .210 against him lifetime. In his career year in 2015 lefties only hit .185 off Matusz. So even if he doesn’t get all of his facilities back, or is stretched out as a starter like the Cubs briefly tried to do in 2016, Matusz has value for the Diamondbacks as a situational reliever. He compiled a 2.94 ERA over 49 innings in 2015 for the Orioles, so his ceiling is quite high in that regard. And like Jepsen, his 8.9% HR/FB rate that was put up in 2015 would be a welcome relief from all of the homers that the Arizona bullpen allowed in 2016. These are the kind of low cost-high reward moves that will have to pay off if the Arizona Diamondbacks are to improve on their 69-93 record of 2016. With the addition of Taijuan Walker to a starting rotation that already features Zack Greinke, there are quite a few bolts to fill that bottle if everything goes right for the Diamondbacks pitching staff this year.

The countdown is on to WWE Fastlane and the big match sees Goldberg battle Kevin Owens for his WWE Universal belt after calling him out on Monday’s Raw. Goldberg may have bigger fish to fry as he is set to take on the mighty Brock Lesnar in what will be the standout bout in WWE’s annual centrepiece, Wrestlemania 33, which takes place on April 2 in Orlando. To add spice to that match, the plan could well be for Goldberg to win the WWE universe title at Fastlane and then go on to defend it against Lesnar in the main event at Wrestlemania. That would make sense and the sportsbooks are virtually convinced of it. A Bovada review of the odds and a scan through various other online betting sites shows that Goldberg is the overwhelming favorite to beat Kevin Owens in Fastlane’s headline match: Goldberg is -1800 on the moneyline to win it, while Owens is the rank outsider at +700. That is pretty close to a sure thing in betting terms. But it might not necessarily happen. Lesnar v Goldberg will be the standout match of Wrestlemania regardless of whether or not a belt is up for grabs, so does it need to be? If they fight at Wrestlemania for the belt, they have to go for 10 minutes minimum to justify the hype. Given their ages – Goldberg is 50, Lesnar 39 – they are unlikely to last the distance. Lesnar should win it to finally end the hoodoo Goldberg has had over him and claim that elusive victory in the final chapter of this saga, but if he does and becomes the champ, it could prove troublesome for the WWE. Lesnar is part time, and he would probably have to relinquish the belt to join the Raw roster as the ongoing story needs a hook. There is another way and it is compelling. The rivalry between Goldberg and Lesnar is really ramping up, so what if Lesnar were to come out and interrupt the match? Owens cannot hope to beat Goldberg in a straight fight, but he has prevailed time and time again through sneaky wins, so this could well see his run extended if Lesnar distracts Goldberg and Owens steals the victory, That would leave Lesnar and Goldberg to fight it out at Wrestlemania, fuelled by even more hatred, but not challenging for the title. They could then have an epic battle for a few minutes and provide the amazing entertainment fans want to see. That all makes the +700 available on Kenny Owens look a pretty good bet right now. The really big question is: who will be WWE Universe Champion at the end of Wrestlemania? Lesnar is the huge favorite at -900, but there is value to be had elsewhere. Goldberg is +125 but if he goes into a title fight against Lesnar he is highly unlikely to win. But if Owens retains the belt he could go in as champion, and he is therefore +400 third favorite. But a better idea might be to predict who he might face if he is still the belt holder, and two distinct possibilities spring to mind: Chris Jericho and Finn Balor. Owens’ luck will have to run out eventually and where better than Wrestlemania? Both Jericho and Balor are +600 and they look very interesting options indeed right now.

In the first two installments, I looked at what the Cubs could use to strengthen the team. The short answer is: a reliever for sure and a starter would be really good. Under perfect circumstances, a hitter could be added, too. In this article, we'll look at the AL team by team to see how likely they are to sell and what players they may put on the market that could help the Cubs. Teams that will not be trading: These are the teams that in a position where even a losing streak before the break will not convince these teams to sell. Generally, that's the teams at the top of the divisions. In the AL East, Baltimore, Toronto and Boston are all in win-now mode. Each of them has made huge investments to reach the playoffs this year. Each of them is within two games of the division lead and are the two current wild card teams in the AL. In the AL Central, Cleveland has a 6.5 game lead and will be looking to add bats, not trade pitching. In the AL West, Texas has built a big lead. They've done it on smoke and mirrors, but they won't be trading anyone away before the deadline. Teams that may or may not sell: There are six teams within 5.5 games of the wildcard leaders in the AL. Houston, Detroit, KC, Chicago, Seattle, NY are all right around .500 and within shouting distance of the playoffs. The circumstances around these teams vary quite a bit. They should all be included in the analysis in case they lose ground on the wild card. Teams that are going to sell: These are the teams that are well out of reach of their divisions or the AL wild card. There are four teams currently in this position - Oakland, LA, Tampa and Minnesota. So, let's start from the bottom and work our way up. For each team, the focus will be on the players who are judged to be not only of value to the Cubs, but also someone that their current team may be willing to trade. Minnesota: 20 GB (Division) / 17.5 GB (Wild Card) Summary: Although Minnesota will be selling, it is hard to see who they may trade. The only expensive reliever on the team (Glen Perkins) is out for labrum surgery. There are some intriguing arms, but they are likely too inexperienced to be of interest to the Cubs and too cheap for Minnesota to give up in a trade. There is really nothing from a starting pitching perspective that would be of interest, nor any position players that would be of interest and also available. Except for one strange rumor... Relievers: Fernando Abad - 1 year/$1.25M (2016) - ML service: 4.073 (to begin the year) Abad would likely be the best lefty in the pen, but he is not a huge upgrade over Travis Wood. His walk rate has gone up each of the past two years and he struggled mightily to keep the ball in the park last year. His numbers are just okay this year. Since he has another year of control and is on a cheap contract, it is likely that Minnesota would want a decent prospect for him. But since he has just one more year of control, he is someone they would likely be willin to move. Just can't see him being worth anyone in the top tiers of the system. Hitters: Robbie Grossman - 1 year (2016) - ML service: 1.095 I have no idea why there is a rumor out there that Grossman might be available. With just one year of service time coming into 2016 and having spent part of the year in the minors, Grossman has five more years of control remaining after this year and is still on a minimum contract. He is not young anymore at 26+ years old, but has broken out this year in a significant way. His line of .279/.416/.461 so far is excellent and his approach at the plate fits exactly what the Cubs look for in a player with his 18.9 % walk rate. I don't know what Minnesota would ask for in return, but Grossman would be an excellent acquisition for the outfield mix now and in the future. Tampa: 17.5 GB / 15.5 GB Summary: Tampa could be a one stop shop for the Cubs. They have been linked in trade rumors over the winter, with Tampa reportedly very interested in Baez and Soler. They have an elite reliever and a number of interesting starting pitching options that would fit for 2016 and beyond. Relievers: Brad Boxberger - 1 year/$0.5192M (2016) - ML service: 2.109 He's not the reliever you want the most from Tampa, but he's likely to be the one that is most available. He's been injured in 2016, so he will need to establish himself healthy before a trade could be made. But he would be an addition to the pen for this year and the next several as he will only have 3+ years of service after this season. Boxberger unquestionably has wipeout stuff, but he sometimes has trouble staying in the strikezone. Because of health and command issues, Tampa would be selling low on Boxberger. With his cost so low, they may choose to hold onto him and let him prove himself healthy before trading him over the winter or next season. Alex Colome - 1 year/$0.5217M (2016) - ML service: 1.118 This is the reliever you want. He would be outrageously expensive, though, as Tampa has absolutely no reason to move him. But he provides elite production from the back end of the pen, has a healthy arm and would be a huge boost to the relief corps now and for many years to come. Starters: Chris Archer - 6 years/$25.5M (2014-19), plus 2020-21 club options - ML service: 2.156 14:$0.5M, 15:$1M, 16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout) Archer finished 2015 as one of the elite arms in MLB. He got off to a very rough start this year, walking too many people and giving up an alarming number of home runs. He's still walking too many, but the home run rate has come down each month to a workable level. He would be very expensive to acquire with his contract at very reasonable prices through 2021. Tampa would likely have to be blown away to make a deal. Given his production issues so far this year, it may be hard to make an offer large enough to entice Tampa to accept. But this would be a huge move to boost the rotation. Drew Smyly / Jake Odorizzi / Matt Moore I won't go into contract details on these guys, but all could be viewed as mid-level options to improve the rotation. They've all shown the ability to strike hitters out while controlling the strike zone. But they are all suffering from giving up way too many home runs this year. The front office could roll the dice on any of these guys and they'd all represent an upgrade on Hammel. Alex Cobb Cobb is working his way back from TJS and just made his first rehab start on 7/7. It seems unlikely that he would be ready in time to be traded before the deadline, but if he is performing well in his rehab starts, it is possible the Cubs would take a chance on him for this year and next. After 2017, Cobb will be a free agent. If Tampa could get a good return for him, it is likely they would move him. Los Angeles Angels: 16.5 GB / 13 GB Summary: Unless you buy into the improvements from Matt Shoemaker, this would all be about convincing the Angels to trade a generational player in Mike Trout. If they decided to sell, the Cubs could offer as much or more than any team out there. It would be worth it. None of the relievers that they would sell are worth the price (Huston Street) of their contract or the price it would take (Cam Bedrosian). Starters: Matt Shoemaker For a series of about five game this season, Shoemaker was remarkable. For the rest of his career, he's been *good* on the mound. But he is dirt cheap, is controllable for another five years and has an injury history. It is hard to see a deal that makes sense for both teams. Hitters: Mike Trout There are very few deals for position players that make sense for the Cubs. It would have to be a very special player they are getting in return to make it worthwhile. Putting Mike Trout in the middle of the order with Bryant and Rizzo would be nearly unfair to the rest of baseball. Let's make it happen. It would probably take something along the lines of Schwarber, Soler, Almora and Vogelbach to get the Angels to jump. Do it if they'll take it. Oakland 15.5 GB / 12 GB Summary: It's too bad Sonny Gray has collapsed this season. And that Sean Doolittle cannot stay on the mound. But there is still one stop shopping involving another former Cubs prospect and a quality reliever. Relievers: Ryan Dull (rookie) He's not the most *exciting* name out there (rimshot, please!). But his performance in his rookie year has been outstanding. Why would Oakland trade him? He doesn't have a huge arm. He wasn't one of their top 10 prospects coming into the year, so he doesn't have a huge pedigree. Given his cost and years of control, they probably wouldn't trade him on his own. But he would make an outstanding addition to a bigger trade. Liam Hendriks - 1 year/$0.5234M (2016) - ML service: 2.038 On the surface, Hendriks 6.15 ERA would suggest he isn't someone the Cubs should be interested in. But he has a track record of success and peripherals that suggest his second half performance will be much stronger. I don't think the Cubs would go after him alone, but he would be a very nice addition to a deal for a starter. Starters: Rich Hill - 1 year/$6M (2016) Hill has a story familiar to many Cubs fans. "One Pitch Rich" came up with the Cubs and succeeded in the rotation for a time. But he always played on the fine edge of having enough control of his curve and fastball combination. He disappeared from MLB for years and resurfaced down the stretch as a dominant pitcher for Boston last year. During this offseason, he took a one year deal with Oakland to prove his newfound success was not a fluke. And he has gone out and proven it this year. With a 2.25 ERA and 2.67 FIP, he has been one of the best pitchers in MLB so far this year. With Oakland out of the race and Hill on a one year deal, it is more a matter of time before he is traded than a question of if it will happen. That's it for tonight. Tomorrow I'll look at the teams in the middle to see what pieces might fit from those teams for the Cubs. Then we'll turn our attention to the National League.

With 22 days remaining until the deadline, trades are beginning to happen around major league baseball. Yesterday, the Red Sox made a move for reliever Brad Ziegler from Arizona to bolster their pen in the wake of the injury to closer Craig Kimbrel. This series of articles is going to look at the Cubs to see what pieces could help the team and then look at the American and National League teams to see what pieces are out there that would fit those needs. Coming into play today, the Cubs still maintain a large eight game lead in the division and are one game back for home field advantage for the NL playoffs. The offense has scored the second most runs in baseball and the pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs. Breaking that down a bit further, the starters have easily allowed the fewest runs in baseball, but the bullpen comes in 12th in preventing runs. So, at a high level, the pen would be the first area that needs some reinforcements. But we can take a deeper look than that. In the first article, I looked at the position players to see what was needed there. This time we will take a look at the pitching and we'll find there are a lot more needs to address. Starting Pitching - 1st in ERA (by nearly a half run!); 5th in FIP; 4th in xFIP; 4th in WAR Let's get this out of the way first: the pitching has been dreadful the past couple weeks. The most reliable starter has been Kyle Hendricks, but even he has not been going very deep into his games. Arrieta, Lester, Hammel and Lackey have all had their worst starts of the past couple years in the past two weeks; some of those starts have been the worst of their careers! While there is some remote possibility that this is the "new normal" for these guys due to injury or sudden performance regression, it is not likely. What is much more likely is that the staff was overperforming their peripherals for quite some time and that they are more likely to be the 4th or 5th best staff in baseball than the one allowing almost half a run less per game than any other team. That is still a really good pitching staff and one that the team could roll the dice with going forward. Also, short of time on the DL, Arrieta, Lester and Lackey will be given very long leashes to work out any issues they have while remaining in the rotation. Which only leaves two spots in the rotation to put a new starter. Those are the spots manned by Hendricks and Jason Hammel. Every indication is that the front office loves Kyle Hendricks and that his spot in the rotation is nearly as safe as the top three spots. So acquiring a new starter would mean moving Hammel to the pen. Let's take a deeper look at Hammel. Last year saw Hammel put up a career best strikeout rate and nearly a best in walk rate. But even with his excellent command of the strikezone in 2015, the Cubs could not trust Hammel down the stretch. He suffered a leg injury in July and was not the same pitcher when he came back. His walk rate nearly doubled in the second half and he started giving up home runs at an alarming rate. He had significant troubles going deep into games and was visibly frustrated when being removed early from many games. In 2016, every aspect of Hammel's performance has been worse than 2015 except for ERA. He isn't commanding the strike zone as well (his K-BB% has changed from 18.6% to 12.4%). He is giving up more home runs. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) has gone from 3.68 to 4.55. In short, he is due for yet more correction to his ERA if he cannot get his peripherals back in line. There is also the lack of durability Hammel has shown throughout his career. He has never reached 178 IP in a year. Throughout his career, his command diminishes throughout the year and his performance degrades. Since his performance so far this year has been much worse than last year, if he continues the pattern of wearing down in the second half he could be a big liability in the rotation going forward. This is a spot that could definitely be upgraded. As for rotation depth, the Cubs have a significant number of players who could step into the rotation. But they do not have anyone who could be a difference maker there, with the possible exception of Adam Warren. But Warren has had his own issues this year with commanding the strike zone. And the Cubs would very likely want to keep Warren as a sixth starter available in case of injury. Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard also represent options for the Cubs that could be stretched out and used in emergency roles in the rotation. There is very little talent available in the upper minors that could be trusted with games down the stretch. Relief Pitching - 19th in ERA; 20th in FIP; 17th in xFIP; 24th in WAR So...that's bad. There is definitely room to improve the pen. But there is good news: Rondon and Strop are both really good, despite a few recent results. Carl Edwards, Jr has very good stuff and should be able to contribute. There is some hope for Justin Grimm. The long relievers should be just fine with Warren eventually returning to the pen to go along with Cahill. But there is a definite lack of quality left handed options. Travis Wood has not been able to repeat his performance as a reliever from 2015. Clayton Richard has been awful. And there is a definite need for a third shut down reliever now that Grimm has taken a step back. This does not come as a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention this year. The Cubs need both another impact reliever and would also benefit from an additional lefty in the pen. If there is starting quality pitching available, the Cubs would have to take a look at that, as well. In the next segment, we'll start going team by team to look at players that may be available to fill the needs for the Cubs.

With 22 days remaining until the deadline, trades are beginning to happen around major league baseball. Yesterday, the Red Sox made a move for reliever Brad Ziegler from Arizona to bolster their pen in the wake of the injury to closer Craig Kimbrel. This series of articles is going to look at the Cubs to see what pieces could help the team and then look at the American and National League teams to see what pieces are out there that would fit those needs. Coming into play today, the Cubs still maintain a large eight game lead in the division and are one game back for home field advantage for the NL playoffs. The offense has scored the second most runs in baseball and the pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs. Breaking that down a bit further, the starters have easily allowed the fewest runs in baseball, but the bullpen comes in 12th in preventing runs. So, at a high level, the pen would be the first area that needs some reinforcements. But we can take a deeper look than that. Starting with the offense, let's go position by position. We'll see how the position ranks by both WAR and by wOBA. Catcher - 6th in WAR; 6th in wOBA The Cubs are well set at catcher for this year and coming years. While Montero has struggled with both health and performance, Willson Contreras has proved to be a foundation piece for the present and future. The rookie will undoubtedly have his ups and downs, but the three headed moster of Contreras, Montero and Ross is set in stone for the remainder of the year. First Base - 3rd in WAR; 2nd in wOBA This one is obvious. Rizzo is one of the elite first basemen in baseball, is only 26 and is on a team friendly contract through 2019 with options for 2020 and 2021. Should Rizzo go down, the Cubs have capable players to put in place in Contreras, Bryant and could even call up Dan Vogelbach if necessary. Second Base - Tied for 3rd in WAR; 4th in wOBA The Cubs have gotten great production out of Ben Zobrist and have great depth at the position with Baez and La Stella. This will be a theme as we go through the offense: this team is immensely solid at just about every position with great starters and great depth. Third Base - 6th in WAR; 10th in wOBA The rankings here surprised me for a minute until I realized how many of the 3B plate appearances have been taken by Baez and La Stella. While the offense supplied by those guys is more than adequate for second base, they would be merely average at third. The ranking is also impacted by the surfeit of great third basemen in baseball today. The position is simply loaded with talent across the league. That said, the Cubs could easily improve here simply by playing Bryant more here than in the OF. They also have depth here if Bryant is needed full time in the OF or needs to spend time on the DL. The other way of looking at it is if one of those other great players at the position became available, the Cubs could move Bryant to the OF full time. This is very unlikely as those players are not likely to be dealt, but it would be one way for the Cubs to make an upgrade. Shortstop - 11th in WAR; 19th in wOBA Addison Russell has been getting the vast majority of the playing time at shortstop and is another foundation piece for the team. While his offensive rank is below average in MLB, there are a lot of reasons to think he might be significantly better at the plate in the second half. Baez provides a more than capable backup at the position, though depth behind him is questionable in the case of injury. Left Field - 4th in WAR; 4th in wOBA By the stats, this is the third strongest position for the team behind first and second base. However, this is the one position on the field that would be the easiest to "upgrade". If the Cubs brought in a player for left, it would allow Bryant to play full time at third base. A move like that would severely limit the number of at bats for Jorge Soler, Javy Baez and Tommy La Stella. The team also has another player they consider part of the foundation coming back in 2017 in Kyle Schwarber, so it is unlikely that they would want a player who had a contract longer than this year. But it would be a possibility. A quick fun fact: The Cubs have already had 11 players get a plate appearance as a left fielder this season, including Travis Wood. They have also played two other players out there for "defense" purposes only: Pedro Strop and Spencer Patton. Center Field - 5th in WAR; 6th in wOBA Maddon has told Dexter Fowler that as he goes, so go the Cubs. Please come back soon, Super Dex! Behind Fowler, the Cubs have Heyward, Almora and Szczur as depth. Just like in LF, the Cubs could make a move here and shift Fowler to LF when he returns. As for getting a player on a longer term contract, that could actually make some more sense here. Fowler is purely on a one year contract. Almora has shown enough to be considered part of the future, but he has not shown enough to be considered a lock for the position, either. He has backed up every single bit of his defensive reputation and more, but still has a lot of growing to do at the plate. It is easier to see the Cubs making a move for a center fielder that would be here for multiple years than any other position on the field. Right Field - 13th in WAR; 26th in wOBA There is no question that Heyward's first season with the Cubs has been disappointing to date. But he's not going anywhere. The team will continue working with him on his swing and hope that he returns to at least his established levels of performance going forward. The only possibility for RF would be the Cubs adding a player to RF and moving Heyward to center field for the next couple of years. Bench: The Cubs bench has primarily consisted of Baez, Ross/Montero, La Stella, Szczur, Almora and Coghlan; with spot roles for Kalish, Kawasaki, Candelario and Federowicz. It is generally one of the stronger benches in baseball and will become even stronger when Dexter and Soler return from injury. The Cubs are unlikely to make a move to bring in another role player for the bench since there are too many players that are out of options on the team. Summary: The Cubs have had one of the best offenses in baseball throughout the first half. They have young players that are considered foundation pieces throughout the diamond. It is possible that the team would trade for another position player, but that player would have to be very special to represent an improvement. Those players would not come cheap and it seems more likely that the Cubs would use their resources to acquire pitching help.

A little past the halfway mark of the season, the Cubs have very few areas of real concern. The offense is one of the very best in baseball. The starting pitching has been healthy and extraordinary (with a few bumps in the road lately). The biggest concern throughout the first half has been with the bullpen. Rondon and Strop have both been very good, but getting the ball to them has been a big challenge. In 2015, there was a third reliever in the pen that posted fantastic results - Justin Grimm. But 2016 has been something of a nightmare for Grimm (or for the fans when he pitches). While he has been better than his 5.79 ERA would suggest, he has still been pretty bad. The 4.42 FIP and 4.12 xFIP both point to a reliever that cannot be relied upon in close games. So is there any hope that Grimm returns to his 2015 level of performance? Let's take a look at some charts! images/articles/2016-07-06/rollingERA.pngFirst off, it is always good to look at how things are trending - are they getting better or worse? In this case, it doesn't take a statstician to spot the trend here. Grimm's season started out pretty good in April and has been on the fast track to disaster ever since. We did see that his FIP (fielding independent pitching) and xFIP (expected FIP, which normalizes home runs per fly ball) are better than his ERA. Let's add those to the chart and see those trends. images/articles/2016-07-06/2016_era_fip_xfip.png Honestly, that's not much better. At this point, I wanted a little more context and so I added in 2015 to the chart and was pretty depressed at the results. images/articles/2016-07-06/2015_16_era_fip_xfip.png Grimm was fabulous last year...until around August. His rapid descent into the independent leagues actually started last year. So what the heck happened? images/articles/2016-07-06/k_plus_bb_percents.png Oh. So, to sum up that chart: each year has seen steep declines in strikeout rates and sharp increases in walk rates during the times he's struggled. To show why that's the case, particularly in 2016, I now present the rolling average of his swinging strike percentage, or how often he can get hitters to swing and miss: images/articles/2016-07-06/swinging_strike.png That doesn't explain a lot in 2015, but this year Grimm has generated less breeze from whiffs than a broken fan. So, let's dig deeper. Has he lost velocity? images/articles/2016-07-06/velocity.png The trend this year isn't great, but he started out higher than he ever had been. He's still around the same speed as when he was really good to start last year. Has he lost movement on his pitches? images/articles/2016-07-06/horizontal_movement.png images/articles/2016-07-06/vertical_movement.png Nope. Both of those trend lines are awfully stable. Well, maybe the "both" part of that is significant. This year, Grimm has really focused on his four seam fastball and his curve. That was also the case last September and October when his results collapsed.Let's take a look at some stats on those. First, let's look at usage rates for the pitches. images/articles/2016-07-06/pitch_selection.png He has pretty much totally ditched the slider in favor of the curve. How effective are the pitches? images/articles/2016-07-06/pitch_value.png This chart shows the value of the pitches per 100 thrown. When he was using the slider last year, it was significantly less valuable than the curve. But this year, the slider has worked really well for him the few times that he's used it. The value of his fastball has pretty well collapsed this year, too.What I suspect is going on here is that hitters are able to pick up on the difference between his fastball and his curve. When he was throwing the slider, it made his fastball more valuable because hitters had something else to think about after they ruled out curve ball. Now they seem to be able to sit on the fastball and do a lot more damage to it than in the past. So, maybe there is hope for Grimm. Let's hope he brings back the slider.

This is a question I've heard asked a lot over the past few days. The first question to ask: is the offense really struggling? I'm going to look at the splits by month to see how much the offense has really tanked during June when compared to the glory days of the first couple months when the Cubs were running roughshod over the rest of baseball. April: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-04-teamoffense.png May: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-05-teamoffense.png June: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-06-teamoffense.png So...that's not clear cut. April was the best month. Fewer runs were scored, but there were fewer games that month. They had a much higher wOBA and wRC+ (two good overall rate measures of offensive performance), so they were clearly better on a per game basis in the early season. But May and June are not so easy to differentiate. The team had better control of the zone and had better luck on balls in play and sequencing in May. But they hit for a lot (like 33-50% more) power in June. The runs scored pretty much balanced out perfectly between the two. The defense was significantly better in June, as well, for what it's worth. Okay, so the June offense wasn't any worse. But what about the past couple weeks when the team has been losing? Last Two Weeks: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-lasttwoweeks-teamoffense.png That's more like it! There's the significant drop in runs we've been looking for. During this two weeks, the team only scored 59 runs compared with the 140 in June, so there's a pretty steep drop there. The wOBA and wRC+ also dropped quite a bit during that time. Let's see where that offense would rank compared to the rest of the teams in baseball for the season to date: 2016 YTD MLB Stats: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-season-mlb-offense.png So that would place this really rough stretch for the Cubs in a tie for ninth in MLB (after we remove the Cubs overall season performance from the list). We could sort by wRC+, but it would be about the same story (tied for 10th). So even during this slump, the Cubs offense would rank among the top third in all of MLB by the best rate measures out there. So why the big drop in runs? In a word: sequencing. They have had terrible luck with runners in scoring position during this timeframe. It's tough to find the numbers split two ways (by last 14 days and with RISP), but I do know they've had some very bad sequencing luck during this time. An easy example of that is when they were 0-17 with RISP to begin the series with the Mets. It really is that simple. There is no large cause for concern here. To illustrate why that's the case, let's dive into the player stats for each of the months. April: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-04-playerstats.png May: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-05-playerstats.png June: images/articles/2016-07-04/2016-06-playerstats.png There's a lot to see there, but let's look one month at a time. I'm going to focus on wOBA as the primary measure here as it looks just at the overall contributions at the plate. In April, the offense was driven by an unreal start from Dexter, Bryzzo being great, and unreal bench contributions from La Stella and Szczur. Baez also got off to a hot start in his 30 at bats and Ross was unexpectedly really good. Zobrist was just a little better than an average player and had some people bemoaning the swap of him and Castro. On the other hand, Russell and Heyward got off to slow starts and Montero and Soler were dreadful to begin the season. In May, it was Zobrist that provded the engine for the offense. Bryant was great once again. Fowler cooled off from his unreal start, but still hit at a really high level. Rizzo had (for him) a down month, but was still above an average MLB hitter. On the other hand, the only two players who got significant at bats during the month that were a drag on performance were Heyward and (particularly) Baez. Everyone else was at least around .310 or above. The first thing I noticed about June was how many different players there were getting AB's. Part of that has been extra inning games and a short bench driving relievers to get PA's. But the Cubs have also introduced several players to MLB during this month because of injuries to Fowler, Montero, La Stella and Soler. The player performance this month has been much more of a mixed bag. They've gotten superstar level performance from Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras and Soler (for his limited at bats). Javy was also really good this month. Almora, Russell and Heyward were all...adequate. Zobrist was okay, but well below what is expected of him. There were also some below average, but at least mediocre performances in limited at bats from Coghlan, La Stella and Ross. But Fowler, Szczur and Montero were all dreadful in June. The takeaway for me from all of that is that even the best players have good and bad stretches of performance. However, the Cubs have a large enough number of really talented hitters that they are not going to go into extended slumps for very long. I have full confidence that the "mini-slump" over the past couple weeks was the result of facing some good pitching and having some bad luck in sequencing their hits. That luck will change and the offense will go back to punishing the rest of baseball very soon.

As we all know, Addison Russell is an exciting young shortstop for the Chicago Cubs. At only 22 years of age, he is already a key component to the best team in baseball. Dating back to his days as a prospect, he has often been compared to Barry Larkin. So why does he suck against left handed pitching? As evidence look at this chart from 2016: images/articles/2016-06-30/2016-06-30-2016-performance-splits.png Against same handed (vs R) pitching Addison has put up a .780 OPS that would rank 12th in baseball for 2016. But when facing lefties, he puts up a .560 OPS that would even cause Jose Macias some shame. And this is despite what should be a platoon advantage. In 2016, MLB right handed hitters have a .730 OPS vs lefties and a .724 OPS vs right handed pitching. It was the same trend last year, as well. If we look at Addison's career splits, they look like this: images/articles/2016-06-30/2016-06-30-career--performance-splits.png So what gives? The key takeaway from these tables is that the very biggest part of the differential in OPS comes from the batting average. His walk rate is a bit better against lefties and his power is a bit better against right handers. But there is a huge difference on his batting average on balls in play, which causes his batting average against lefties to be almost half what it is against righties. Well, that gives the proximate cause for the performance difference! But why is there such a staggering difference on his BABIP against lefties and righties? Let's take a look at his splits on batted ball data. We'll look at the career numbers again. images/articles/2016-06-30/2016-06-30-career-batted-ball-splits.png There is a remarkable similarity in those lines with one very notable exception. The Pull vs Center vs Opposite field numbers are almost exactly the same. The LD/GB/FB numbers are almost exactly the same. The Soft/Medium/Hard splits are similar, with some of the hard hit balls shifting to soft hit. That would help explain the difference a little bit. The big difference there, though, is the enormous difference in the number of popups, or IFFB%. At the major league level, a popup is just as sure of an out (or an error scored as an out for the hitter, anyway) as a strikeout. Those 10-11 popups alone account for a significant percentage of the difference in his BABIP. So, then, why does he hit such a high percentage of popups against lefties? For that answer, I went to the statcast data. After a couple hours of searching, I have not found any compelling answers. There is this difference in the way that lefties and righties are locating the ball: images/articles/2016-06-30/AddisonRussellZoneChartLefties.pngimages/articles/2016-06-30/AddisonRussellZoneChartRighties.png (lefties are on the left, of course!) The biggest difference there is that he's being pitched down and in a lot more by left handers. But also look at the ratio of the pitches away and outside of the zone. Right handers work him down and out of the zone by nearly a 4-1 ratio (241 / 67). For lefties, that same ratio is almost exactly 2-1 (67 / 33). In the end, it is hard to tell the true root cause for why Addison is hitting so many popups against lefties. But those popups alone go a long way to explaining the difference in his performance against southpaws. The remainder is likely just small sample size bad luck.

Willson Contreras has taken MLB by storm. It would be fair to say that if he could keep up the hitting pace of his first seven games (.412/.474/.941) that he would be the greatest player in the history of baseball. That won't happen, of course, but there are reasons to believe that Willson Contreras might just as good as any of the young studs the Cubs have assembled. It goes beyond his short stint in MLB, of course. Let's begin with his performance for the past 1.5 years in minor league ball. Willson had his breakthrough year at AA in 2015, going .333/.413/.478 at the plate. More importantly, he showed tremendous plate discipline and contact skills with 10.9 BB % and 11.9 SO %. If you added in HBP, he got on base with free (and painful) passes more frequently than he struck out across 521 PA. He continued that excellence into the Arizona Fall League (where many of baseball's best prospects play when the regular minor league season concludes) with a .283/.361/.547 line and 11.5 BB % / 14.8 SO % peripherals. In AAA this year, he took everything he had done last season and added a big boost of power into the mix. At the time of his promotion, he was hitting .350/.439/.591 with excellent peripherals, once again. The .100 point gain in his slugging over his AA numbers was driven by a steep increase in his HR rate. At AA he hit a home run every 56.75 AB. In AA, he hit a home run every 22.56 AB. If you include his time in the majors for his 2016 line, he is at a home run every 19.16 AB. In the very, very small sample size of his time in the majors, he has already hit three home runs in 17 AB (1 every 5.67 AB). That really does not tell us very much yet as he won't be able to keep up that level of HR rate (I feel confident saying that because it would be the best ever!). But there are a number of things that we can already tell about the type of hitter he will be. Let's start with some numbers around plate discipline. Here are Willson's swing percentages compared to the league average: O-Swing % Z-Swing % Swing % Contreras 35.1 % 74.2 % 52.9 % League Average 29.1 % 66.3 % 46.3 % Across the board, Willson has been a little more aggressive so far than the typical major leaguer. That matches up with what I have seen on the field so far. I would describe Willson's approach to the game as "barely restrained aggression". However, based on his minor league performance, I would actually expect these numbers to approach or exceed league average once he begins to feel more comfortable in MLB. Now let's look at his contact rates: O-Contact % Z-Contact % Contact % Contreras 46.2 % 87.0 % 72.2 % League Average 63.1 % 86.1 % 78.3 % Those numbers are pretty good for a very tightly wound player making his big league debut. Willson has been taking some big hacks at the plate, as evidenced by his three home runs already. Making that level of contact while swinging that hard is very good. Now let's look at his small sample results. I'm going to start with the thing that grabbed my attention the most: images/articles/2016-06-25/2016-06-25_11-11-22.png Even with the big swings and the power that Contreras has shown so far, he has been almost purely an up the middle and opposite field hitter. The explanation for that shows in his zone charts: images/articles/2016-06-25/2016-06-25_11-12-49.pngThe two charts on the left show the pitch location for every pitch he's been thrown to date. To begin his big league career, pitchers are making a significant effort to pitch him away. Willson has shown to be an adept enough hitter to both recognize that and then go with those pitches and punish them to the opposite field. It will be fascinating to watch the adjustments over the next few weeks as teams realize that he's perfectly willing to hit those pitches on the outside to the opposite field. Teams will see the zero batting average on inside pitches (third chart above) and will start to try to bust him inside. Willson will have to recognize that and adjust to pull those pitches to have similar success. His minor league track record over the past year and a half suggest that he will most definitely be able to make that adjustment.

After a tremendous start to the season, Addison Russell went through a mighty slump in May. He seems to have mostly rebounded and has been well above average over his last 10 games. The chart below shows the extent of his slump and recovery. Let's see if we can find out what drove the slump and what has been fixed. And, unfortunately, what hasn't been. images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-36-53.png?i=220 As you can see above, Addison's 10 game moving average for wOBA (an excellent overall measure of offensive performance) bottomed out in game 55 and has been on the rise ever since. Let's first take a look at his walk and strikeout rates during this same time frame: images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-37-53.pngAs you can see, his walk numbers have shot up along with his wOBA. It certainly looks like his discipline at the plate is highly correlated to his overall offensive performance. Let's take a deeper look at these numbers, though, to see what was driving the changing walk rates. images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-42-18.png?i=106During his recovery, his swing percentages (O-Swing% is the percentage of times he swings at pitches outside the zone; Z-Swing% is the percentage of times he swings at pitches inside the zone) have definitely dropped, though they were starting to decline just before his performance bottomed out. The next thing to look at is what happened when he did swing: images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-43-01.png?i=173This is where we start to see the real improvement! So he has gotten a little more selective at the plate, but he is also making a lot more contact when he does swing. During his slump, he had fallen way below his average contact rates on balls in the zone and on balls out of the zone. Basically, he was swinging and missing like 2014 Javy Baez. Well, not quite that bad, but it was still well below his normal performance. The next question, though, is what kind of contact is he making? images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-39-57.png?i=696When we look at the batted ball types, we see a lot of noise in the rolling 10 game samples. One of the things that obviously drove his slump is the massive shift in ground ball versus fly ball rates. Through the first 30+ games of the year, he was hitting nearly equal amounts of grounders and fly balls. Around game 38 this year, those two lines diverged dramatically and Addison became an extreme ground ball hitter. So his slump was driven by a couple of factors at the same time: he wasn't making nearly as much contact and when he hit the ball, he hit it on the ground. That's a certain recipe for a deep dive in offensive performance. There is actually one disturbing trend in his recovery: over the past 10 games Addison's line drive percentage has dropped dramatically. That may just be statistical noise, but it is something to keep an eye on as he tries to build on his recovery. In addition to the type of contact, we can also look at the quality of contact. images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-40-56.png?i=984This is really the final piece of the puzzle for the slump and the recovery. During his hot streak at the beginning of the year, Addison was hitting the ball hard with great frequency. Then, during the slump, his hard hit % dropped and his soft hit % actually rose above it for a while. During the recovery, his hard hit percentage has hovered around his average, but his soft hit percentage has plummeted. He has gone back to hitting the ball with much more authority. So, to sum up, the slump in performance was driven by a lot of swings and misses and a lot of weak contact on ground balls. All of those factors have gotten much better over the past 15 or so games and generally continue to improve. But there is one area of performance that has still not gotten better: images/articles/2016-06-22/2016-06-22_20-38-30.pngAs you can see, his strikeout numbers are still hovering in the 30-35% range. Hopefully that is just bad luck. Given the improvements in his contact rates both in the zone and out of the zone (and slight improvements in swing percentages), his strikeout rate should start to fall. Overall, things are looking a lot better for Addison. There are a couple of things to watch for, but his performance is definitely looking better after his prolonged slump. Please share your comments below or on the message board

I was inspired by Aaron to spend some time on the Baseball Savant website. I chose to study my favorite engima: how Jorge Soler can hit the ball so damn hard and yet have mediocre results. I'm still getting my arms around using the site to do good analysis, so I figured I'd take an easy first step and just create some fun charts. So, I downloaded Jorge's available data and pulled it into my favorite data analysis tool. The first chart I looked at was a scatter plot of Exit Velocity vs Launch Angle. images/articles/2016-06-04_Soler_Scatter.png?i=224 This chart shows every single batted ball captured by statcast in 2015 and 2016. The color coding works like this: outs are in gray; singles are in yellow; doubles are in light green; home runs are in dark green. This is just one player's data, but there are already a few obvious things from this chart. Hitting the ball hard is good - that's where all the home runs and doubles live. Getting some loft on the ball is also obviously beneficial for hitting for power, but there are a lot more hits when the ball is at a low launch angle than if the ball gets too much loft without the velocity required to get it out of the park. images/articles/2016-06-04_Soler_Histogram.png?i=559These charts were fascinating to me. I was expeciting a normal (or bell curve) distribution for both charts, but the exit velocity chart is very obviously skewed (the tail is much longer on the left side and the curve peaks towards the right). The chart shows what our eyes see - Jorge consistently hits the ball hard. What is interesting about the combination of the charts is that launch angle appears to be much more highly correlated with the outcome than is exit velocity. You can see this by how just about every outcome type shows up for each of the exit velocity groupings, but each of the launch angle groupings typically only has a few potential outcomes. This makes good intuitive sense - you can't hit a ground ball when you get loft at the launch; conversely you can't get a flyout when you pound it into the ground.images/articles/2016-06-04_Soler_BoxPlots.png?i=059Another way to look at this is through the use of box plots. For each of the bars, the center line is the average; the box itself represents the middle 50% of the data; the lines show the maximum and minimum values for each type of event. Again, this is just another way of looking at the same data, so it shows the same things. For example, doubles and home runs have a very similar profile from exit velocity. But home runs tend to have just a bit more loft to them when leaving the bat.Most of this is pretty intuitive. But it will be more fun to start diving into compartive data and looking at the profile of how Jorge hits the ball versus average hitters and elite hitters.Leave some comments below in how you'd like to see the data and what comparisons would be interesting.

The Cubs first rumor has surfaced for the summer. This article, among others, links the Chicago Cubs to pitcher Nate Eovaldi from the Yankees. Everything is pure speculation at this point, but lets take a look anyway. How good is Eovaldi? Eovaldi has been one of the hardest throwing starting pitchers in baseball since he came up in 2011. He routinely sits in the upper 90's and occasionally hits triple digits. For starting pitchers, only Syndergaard has had a faster average velocity so far this year. The concern with Eovaldi in the past is that for all his velocity, he hasn't missed many bats. He has also had a tendency to dramatically underperform his fielding independent pitching (FIP) numbers on a yearly basis. The good news? Neither of those are the case in 2016. So far this year, he has increased his strikeout rate from 18% to 22.9% (7.06 -> 8.46 K/9). The primary reason for the improvement appears to be the addition of a split finger fastball that he is throwing around 12% of the time. The pitch gives him another plus pitch that he can use to put away hitters. The bad news? He still struggles against lefties. Even with the addition of the split, lefties still carry a .354 wOBA against Eovaldi. When you put it all together, Eovaldi has been a valuable pitcher to begin 2016. He ranks 27th in pitching fWAR (more on this later). He has a wonderful arm for Bosio to work with. He is under team control for another year after this one, so he helps plug a hole beyond just this year. He would be a solid addition to the team, though not as exciting as other starting pitching options that may surface. What is the cost? According to the article referenced earlier, the price would start with Javy Baez. Depending on your point of view, this could be seen as our last opportunity to sell high on Baez or not being patient enough to let him fully develop. There is rightfully a lot of room for disagreement on his future. Javy has done a remarkable job reducing his strikeout rate from 2014 through last year and to today. He has taken an unusual path to that improvement in 2016, though. While his contact % is up (the percentage of the time he makes contact when he swings), his contact % in the zone is actually down. What is driving the improvement in his overall conact rate is that he has improved his contact on pitches out of the zone from 48.6% to 67.8%. In addition to his improved contact rate, the other reason Javy is striking out less is because he is swinging more often. He is actually swinging more often at both pitches in the zone and balls out of the zone. Because he is swinging more often and making contact more often, it has led to a reduction in both his strikeout rate and his walk rate. He simply isn't allowing himself to get into as many deep counts. All of this had led to a reduction in the quality of his contact. He simply isn't hitting for the kind of power that he was a couple years ago. The potential is still there for Javy to put it all together - if he can become more "selectively aggressive" on pitches in the fat part of the zone, he could still be a monster. He has shown an ability to make adjustments to his game to address a glaring weakness. He may yet have the potential to break through. However, the most probable outcome is likely to be a quality defender with a mediocre batting line that will always tease with the occasional 475 foot dong. Do we even need a starting pitcher? Remember when I mentioned that Eovaldi has had a solid season and ranks 27th overall in MLB in pitching fWAR? That would also rank fifth on the Cubs, slightly ahead of Jason Hammel at 31st overall. If the team could count on getting 30+ starts from each of the members of the rotation, it would be foolish to invest any resources in adding another starter to the team. However, it is exceedingly rare for a team to get that many starts from each of five starters. It would certainly be awkward while everyone is healthy. The team could go to a six man rotation. They could potentially piggyback Hammel & Hendricks. They could take turns resting one starter each time through the rotation while using the sixth man in those different slots. Whatever they do, chances are they will need another starter at some point during the year. Let me know your thoughts in the comments or on the message board!

It appears as though the injury to Jason Hammel is nothing more than cramps. Hammel had to leave his start today during warmups for the third inning. As he was warming up, he started to shake his leg and grab his hamstring. As quoted at Cubs.com, Hammel says that he felt he was fully hydrated, but began to cramp up anyway. Given how Hammel's 2015 season was derailed with a leg injury in July, the Cubs will likely continue to be very cautious with him. --- Original Text ---- Details yet to come, but Jason Hammel left the game vs the Dodgers today with what initially appears to be a hamstring cramp or strain. Hopefully, this does not cause a repeat of last season where Hammel was exceptional until suffering a leg injury in July and never quite being the same afterwards.

Just sayin'.