soccer soccer soccer

[wolf stansson]

 

Parsing this image for the next four days. WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GIO?!?

 

 

[mul21]

 

What does this mean?

[Rex Buckingham]

 

What does this mean?

 

xG is essentially how many goals would be expected given the historical results of the shots taken. Penalties are worth .76 xG because of the rate they're converted, shots in close are worth more xG than those from distance, etc.

[UMFan83]

 

What does this mean?

 

That the US dominated the chances in this game. Someone else can explain it better but it basically measures quality of chances in a match. If someone drills one from outside of the box for a goal, the xG for that will be low because its a low probability chance. If someone Wondo's it, the xG will be much higher despite not scoring. The US had better chances while Iran's were mostly lower quality.

 

edit: what abmillis said

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

What does this mean?

 

The numbers in parentheses are the expected goals totals, or xG. You can think of it similarly to the statcast stuff you might see about expected batting average, it's measuring how likely a goal was when a shot was taken. It's not super definitive for a couple reasons(similar to why no one would look at single game FIP for proof a pitcher was awesome), but it can help you understand who had the better chances.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Parsing this image for the next four days. WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GIO?!?

 

Coming back to this, my guess it's a combo of:

 

- Gio is not 100%, and he's a teenager* who's played 800 club minutes in the last 18 months so he's being kept on a strict leash

- Gio is not a vertical threat(especially given the injury risk), so he doesn't help the team as much in certain game states

- Gregg doesn't rate Gio's defensive work as highly as others, which means he doesn't rank as highly as other options in certain other game states

- Gio is not a clean fit at any position in the US formation, he's not a pure winger in the way that Pulisic, Weah, or Morris are(and Aaronson can be), and he's not enough of an engine room guy to be one of the 8s(which Aaronson only gets away with due to his 80 grade work rate)

 

*he turned 20 two weeks ago

[wolf stansson]

Tim Weah is better for the system and Brendo defends. Christian ain’t getting benched. Kind of that simple.

[UMFan83]

 

Parsing this image for the next four days. WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GIO?!?

 

Coming back to this, my guess it's a combo of:

 

- Gio is not 100%, and he's a teenager* who's played 800 club minutes in the last 18 months so he's being kept on a strict leash

- Gio is not a vertical threat(especially given the injury risk), so he doesn't help the team as much in certain game states

- Gregg doesn't rate Gio's defensive work as highly as others, which means he doesn't rank as highly as other options in certain other game states

- Gio is not a clean fit at any position in the US formation, he's not a pure winger in the way that Pulisic, Weah, or Morris are(and Aaronson can be), and he's not enough of an engine room guy to be one of the 8s(which Aaronson only gets away with due to his 80 grade work rate)

 

*he turned 20 two weeks ago

 

All good points but I guess I figured one of the most skilled playmakers on the team would find more than 10 minutes of playing time in group stage. Maybe he's a better fit as a sub in knockout stages when Gregg should be less conservative with draws not being a consideration. I'd hope if the US was chasing a goal in the 70th minute of a knockout match he'd find a way to get Gio's skillset in there.

[UMFan83]

Love the enthusiasm

 

[UMFan83]

[imb]

just say his nuts are busted

[imb]

2022 Netherlands better or worse than 2014 Belgium? Guessing worse?

 

this dutch squad couldn't touch 2014 belgium. de bruyne, lukaku, witsel, mertens, prime hazard, courtois etc

Edited November 30, 2022 by Elon Musk

[Transmogrified Tiger]

love that we're now playing with house money so the banter can really level up

 

[bukie]

CP was waiting for the team when they got back to the hotel tonight:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Mark Priors Calves]

My favorite part of having a good team is reading a ton about them during a fun run. What's everyone reading?

[Brian707]

Not a big soccer guy but that was horsefeathering awesome! Hope that dude's nuts are ok. Brewery by my house is hosting a watch party starting at 7am Saturday. It's big on soccer and I love morning drinking

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My favorite part of having a good team is reading a ton about them during a fun run. What's everyone reading?

 

Paul Tenorio and Sam Stejskal at The Athletic do great stuff, Sam's series about several players through the lens of their hometowns(Adams, Aaronson, Dest, Weah, Berhalter) is especially good. For stuff that isn't pre-world cup profiles, Paul's blow by blow of stoppage time today is pretty good.

[soccer10k]

8 hours later and I’m still jacked up.

 

Is it Saturday yet?

[imb]

Look at this porn

 

[bukie]

Group C and D scenarios:

 

Group C:

- Poland is through with a win or draw vs Argentina, or a loss vs Argentina coupled with a Mexico-Saudi draw or Mexico wins by fewer than 4 goals.

- Argentina is through with a win vs Poland or a draw vs Poland and a Mexico-Saudi draw or Mexico wins by fewer than 3 goals.

- Saudi Arabia is through with a win vs Mexico, or a draw and a Poland win vs Argentina

- Mexico is through with a win vs Saudi Arabia and either an Argentina loss or they make up 3-4 goals of differential on Poland with a Poland loss or Argentina with an Argentina-Poland draw

 

 

Group D:

- France is already through and has already won the group unless they lose, Australia wins and makes up a 6 goal differential. France has won the group.

- Australia is through with a win vs Denmark or draw vs Denmark and France win or draw vs Tunisia

- Denmark is through with a win vs Australia as long as either Tunisia doesn't win or Tunisia wins by fewer goals.

- Tunisia is through with a win vs France and a Denmark-Australia draw or Denmark wins by fewer goals

[wolf stansson]

My favorite part of having a good team is reading a ton about them during a fun run. What's everyone reading?

TT’s recs are good. Grant Wahl has also been doing great stuff on his substack.

Backheeled.com - USS content

Brian Phillips (the ringer) - the best soccer writer

 

https://www.theringer.com/world-cup/2022/11/29/23484981/usa-iran-world-cup-game-analysis-reaction-round-of-16

 

Additional content to check out:

Scuffed Podcast - the best USS podcast

Total soccer show - the other best USS podcast

US Soccer YouTube channel - behind the crest

Cooligans podcast - the one actually funny soccer podcast

Edited November 30, 2022 by wolf stansson

[wolf stansson]

 

Wes gettin me right in the brovaries. I need to have a spoiled kid who gets to go to a World Cup before they’re old enough to appreciate it.

[bukie]

Kind of boring first halves for both games, as France is pretty disinterested, Tunisia can't generate any chances anyway, and Australia for the moment is perfectly fine parking the bus.

 

I kind of hope Tunisia gets a goal, because that would make the Denmark-Australia game fascinating, both knowing that a draw would eliminate both of them.

[soccer10k]

I kind of hope Tunisia gets a goal, because that would make the Denmark-Australia game fascinating, both knowing that a draw would eliminate both of them.

 

There you go.

[soccer10k]

Australia takes the lead.