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David

By David,
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StylesClash College Ball

StylesClash

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Was Kris Bryant's career Minor League BABIP close to his high 2015 MLB version? I believe it's been said that Grichuk and Piscotty had minor league BABIP's much lower than what they produced for the Cards this season. So that would be a good reason to think they're due to decline in 2016.

 

 

The reason why I'm asking so many Cardinal questions is that I'm considering betting a rather large amount on the Cubs to win the Central. And with the Bucs losing Burnett and Happ the Cards are the only likely team to threaten that bet. So I'm just looking to learn as much about the Cardinals in terms of possible player declines and minor league impact promotions.

 

http://i.giphy.com/11a8FLrVeoLnna.gif

 

Wouldn't it make more sense in this totally not made up scenario to be asking about the Cardinals on a Cardinals message board? Or are you inexplicably asking them about the Cubs?

 

Thanks for contributing to legitimate discussion about my questions in this thread. :D

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David GOAT

David

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Bryce Harper 2016 ZiPS

.311 .431 .592 1.023

#1 Comp - Ted Williams

I really wish the Cubs had bought "low" on Harper last year when he was disgruntled and the Nats thought he wasn't worth the trouble.

 

i want to go back and laugh at all the people who said they wouldn't want him because i'm pretty sure i wasn't one of them

RammyFanny South Bend Cubs

RammyFanny

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Was Kris Bryant's career Minor League BABIP close to his high 2015 MLB version? I believe it's been said that Grichuk and Piscotty had minor league BABIP's much lower than what they produced for the Cards this season. So that would be a good reason to think they're due to decline in 2016.

Bryant's minor league BABIP was .406, although even expecting him to maintain a .376 BABIP in the majors is still too much to ask unless he truly is the second coming. But maybe he's a freak exception. And it will still always be really really high.

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
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Bryant's BABIP will probably come down, but probably not crash down for at least a few years while he still has his current footspeed. It's also good to remember that he got off to a very slow start in the power department, so odds are he'll lose a few more balls in play to home runs to help mitigate that effect.
Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Bryce Harper 2016 ZiPS

.311 .431 .592 1.023

#1 Comp - Ted Williams

I really wish the Cubs had bought "low" on Harper last year when he was disgruntled and the Nats thought he wasn't worth the trouble.

 

i want to go back and laugh at all the people who said they wouldn't want him because i'm pretty sure i wasn't one of them

 

Wasn't it a Castro for Harper-type of deal?

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
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I really wish the Cubs had bought "low" on Harper last year when he was disgruntled and the Nats thought he wasn't worth the trouble.

 

i want to go back and laugh at all the people who said they wouldn't want him because i'm pretty sure i wasn't one of them

 

Wasn't it a Castro for Harper-type of deal?

 

I think more like Soler + Russell + others

 

Also there's not a lot of indication that Washington actually thought he wasn't worth the trouble. There was that allusion around the winter meetings last year to a huge, huge deal that some team was working on that never got far enough down the line. I like to think it was a Harper deal, and hopefully the Cubs, as they're one of only a few teams who had resources to trade that would have been enticing.

RammyFanny South Bend Cubs

RammyFanny

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Bryant's BABIP will probably come down, but probably not crash down for at least a few years while he still has his current footspeed. It's also good to remember that he got off to a very slow start in the power department, so odds are he'll lose a few more balls in play to home runs to help mitigate that effect.

 

Yeah, plus knowing how pitchers are going to attack him, becoming familiar with guys over and over again, and just making continual improvements will help mitigate the drop. I remember 2 or 3 times last year where pitchers figured out a weakness for 2 or 3 weeks that made him look silly and he always came right back and eventually made great adjustments where they were forced to go away from it (low changeups I think?)

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

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No, no; this was before the Cubs had either of those guys (definitely before they had Russell). I could swear there was a thread here where several people said they wouldn't trade Castro for Harper.
RammyFanny South Bend Cubs

RammyFanny

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

i want to go back and laugh at all the people who said they wouldn't want him because i'm pretty sure i wasn't one of them

 

Wasn't it a Castro for Harper-type of deal?

 

I think more like Soler + Russell + others

 

Also there's not a lot of indication that Washington actually thought he wasn't worth the trouble. There was that allusion around the winter meetings last year to a huge, huge deal that some team was working on that never got far enough down the line. I like to think it was a Harper deal, and hopefully the Cubs, as they're one of only a few teams who had resources to trade that would have been enticing.

 

There were a few attitude rumblings, but I think the main thing at the time was when the Nats low balled him in arbitration (or something similar to that) and there were rumors he was pissed and Boras might have had a few nasty quotes.

David GOAT

David

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No, no; this was before the Cubs had either of those guys (definitely before they had Russell). I could swear there was a thread here where several people said they wouldn't trade Castro for Harper.

 

that happened too but i was also talking about ones from last offseason iirc

David GOAT

David

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http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/01/25/sports/baseball/ap-bbo-manfreds-first-year.html

 

Fangraphs with a piece on what pitchers would be most affected

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-biggest-hypothetical-losers-of-a-raised-strike-zone/

 

Lester and Hendricks both make the list. Would it be worth the benefit to our dongsmiths, or do we have enough of a donging advantage currently where we're better off with things the way they are?

Gilby First Round Pick

Gilby

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All Bryant has to do is increase his power slightly while also bring his k's down like 1-2%. Zips has him around a 345 Babip with a 270 batting avg. That seems realistic.
David GOAT

David

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Scott Servais is the new Mariners manager

 

In other news, I think the Cubs signed Jason Heyward and the Bulls hired Fred Hoiberg.

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