Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

Chourio is a big problem

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

 

Depending on how the playoffs go wondering if we see similar for PCA and the other standouts at SB

[PackLandVA]

Question ref Matt Mervis:

 

Given his productivity, age, and the fact that he’s been at AAA, is there any particular reason he’s not up with the MLB Cubs? I haven’t read anything about any reason. The only thing I can think of is they’re waiting for the Iowa season the end. Not certain why in September he’s not given a shot over/in addition to Rivas.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Question ref Matt Mervis:

 

Given his productivity, age, and the fact that he’s been at AAA, is there any particular reason he’s not up with the MLB Cubs? I haven’t read anything about any reason. The only thing I can think of is they’re waiting for the Iowa season the end. Not certain why in September he’s not given a shot over/in addition to Rivas.

 

This came up the other day: viewtopic.php?p=509309#p509309

 

- Mervis has only been at AAA for 6 weeks, so while it's not proving to be a huge challenge he's not proven mastery of the level beyond a doubt

- Mervis does not have to be added to the 40 man for Rule 5 reasons, which means keeping him off the 40 man during the offseason helps the team protect an extra player and alleviate the likely crunch

- Mervis playing in MLB wouldn't change how you approach the offseason. 20-25 games isn't enough to make you confident of his 2023 production one way or another, so you aren't losing valuable insight by keeping him in Iowa.

[PackLandVA]

Thanks for the info! I try to keep up on the minors, but I guess I missed that.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Now we know why Canario has been out.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Prospect Hot Sheet - 20 hottest prospects in the minors last week: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-91322/

 

10. Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 23

 

Why He’s Here: .375/.476/.875 (6-for-16), 6 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 7 SO, 0-for-0 SB

 

The Scoop: Amaya returned from Tommy John surgery in early July because the Cubs wanted him to develop offensively, even though his arm wasn’t ready for him to return behind the plate yet. That plan has worked out well. Amaya has been a DH exclusively since he returned and had his latest big showing against Pensacola last week, reaching base in all five games to boost his OPS to .864. Amaya is scheduled to return to catching in the Arizona Fall League, but in the meantime, he’s showing the time away did nothing to dampen his offensive abilities. (KG).

 

19. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Cubs

Team: High-A South Bend (Midwest)

Age: 23

 

Why He’s Here: .429/.478/.810 (9-for-21), 4 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2-for-2 SB

 

The Scoop: Nwogu got off to a slow start at High-A this year but has quietly found his form in the second half of the season. Nwogu had his latest big series against Cedar Rapids last week, notching a hit in all five games of the series and hitting a pair of homers. With the finish, Nwogu hit .299/.373/.611 after the all-star break—a stark difference from the .238/.346/.409 he hit before the break. (KG)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

After Pontes had Palencia in his 5 best under-the-radar FBs piece (see Tom’s post above), no Cubs were in his top 5 sliders under-the-radar piece today:

 

 

BUT

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1570799982047023111?s=46&t=3zSTkLgwy5r0EAAEbtTT1w

 

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1570799500033425410?s=46&t=3zSTkLgwy5r0EAAEbtTT1w

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Donzo]

How cool is it that Young is getting his Crash Davis cup of coffee in the show!

 

I haven't thought of him as prospect since before covid. If I remember right he was OK through A ball and flatlined in AA. Anyway, good for him.

 

The downside is he's taking what should be Mervises spot. We all know the situation, but it still stinks he doesn't get those 75 at bats in the majors this season.

[17 Seconds]

is caissie the only relevant piece left from the darvish trade? was it worth it?

[Bertz]

is caissie the only relevant piece left from the darvish trade? was it worth it?

 

Preciado's season has been a mess, but as a 19 year old in full season ball (18 actually for most of his pre-injury play time) it's not a total write him off situation

 

Yeison Santana progressed quite a bit this year. The ceiling is quite limited but I don't think an MLB bench bat is out of the question

 

Ismael Mena is getting pretty safe to write off

 

So Caissie's definitely the jewel of the deal. Whether he's the only relevant guy probably depends on your definition of relevant, but it's certainly not unfair to say. I think the deal was worth it, but at the moment it looks like Jed did fine rather than particularly good. There's probably some extenuating circumstances doing a deal that big at that time however.

[Named After Maddux]

 

Laurila: What about the movement profile of your fastball?

 

Jobe: “That was one of the bigger things for me this year. I came into spring training with what someone called a flat fastball. The spin efficiency on it was really low, so I wasn’t getting any ride. It was a flat four-seam. I worked on that the entire year, and now I’m getting a lot more of that ride effect, which helps me miss more bats. It allows me to throw that pitch 60% of the time.

 

“The metrics on it… I spin it pretty well. The average is around 2,500-2,600, although I don’t know how much the spin rate on your fastball actually does for you. I know that the vertical movement is what’s important. That went from an average of 14 inches of induced vertical to where now I’m getting an average of 17.5. Sometimes I’m getting 18 or 19. That’s definitely been big for me.”

 

Laurila: What were the adjustments that helped you add ride?

 

Jobe: “A lot of it was playing around with different grips. I’d been unconsciously cutting the ball. When I was gripping the ball, I had it preset as a cutter. I had no idea. That was taking away from the spin efficiency and not allowing me to get that good, true backspin. One thing I did with the grip was tuck my thumb, which helps keep my wrist stiff.”

 

This fastball shape stuff ties into my Hodge comment in the last post. Separating those fastballs and breaking balls is a must!

 

This point isn't universally agreed upon by teams. Right now there's a common sentiment that vertical movement is second only to velocity, but it's definitely more nuanced about it. The Cubs, in particular, are a team that believes in incorporating fastballs with relative (or actual) cut to them for certain pitchers. Part of that is that when used well in pitch design, these pitches produce softer contact on balls in play. The relative cut added to a four-seam tends to keep it out of the true dead zone, which is where fastballs have equal horizontal and vertical movement numbers (like if a pitch had 10 inches of horizontal and 10-12 inches of vertical movement). Also we need to consider that a lot of Stuff+ calculations tend to be based on whiff% (or heavily based on that). But there's some good research and commentary- that I personally agree on - that we should be looking at run value (RV/100) since what pitchers are ultimately trying to do is prevent runs, not only generate whiffs. It's why sinkers look terrible in most Stuff+ calculations, but they aren't all bad pitches.

I haven't gotten an update on Hodge's data for a few weeks, but his horizontal movement cuts the ball in a similar way to Justin Steele's. If you compare his fastball to Driveline's "Blob", Hodge's fastball is outside the dead zone here due largely to the cutting action (approx -1 inch horizontal movement and an average of 92.5 mph which was from earlier this year). And he throws this fastball from a low release height. Obviously the velocity is different, but Hodge's release height is low like Edwin Díaz.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs try to still get Hodge's fastball to generate more ride so it's a cut-ride fastball similar to Leeper's. Additional ride on the ball along with his release height and a mph bump or two would be pretty deadly.

[Bertz]

 

Laurila: What about the movement profile of your fastball?

 

Jobe: “That was one of the bigger things for me this year. I came into spring training with what someone called a flat fastball. The spin efficiency on it was really low, so I wasn’t getting any ride. It was a flat four-seam. I worked on that the entire year, and now I’m getting a lot more of that ride effect, which helps me miss more bats. It allows me to throw that pitch 60% of the time.

 

“The metrics on it… I spin it pretty well. The average is around 2,500-2,600, although I don’t know how much the spin rate on your fastball actually does for you. I know that the vertical movement is what’s important. That went from an average of 14 inches of induced vertical to where now I’m getting an average of 17.5. Sometimes I’m getting 18 or 19. That’s definitely been big for me.”

 

Laurila: What were the adjustments that helped you add ride?

 

Jobe: “A lot of it was playing around with different grips. I’d been unconsciously cutting the ball. When I was gripping the ball, I had it preset as a cutter. I had no idea. That was taking away from the spin efficiency and not allowing me to get that good, true backspin. One thing I did with the grip was tuck my thumb, which helps keep my wrist stiff.”

 

This fastball shape stuff ties into my Hodge comment in the last post. Separating those fastballs and breaking balls is a must!

 

This point isn't universally agreed upon by teams. Right now there's a common sentiment that vertical movement is second only to velocity, but it's definitely more nuanced about it. The Cubs, in particular, are a team that believes in incorporating fastballs with relative (or actual) cut to them for certain pitchers. Part of that is that when used well in pitch design, these pitches produce softer contact on balls in play. The relative cut added to a four-seam tends to keep it out of the true dead zone, which is where fastballs have equal horizontal and vertical movement numbers (like if a pitch had 10 inches of horizontal and 10-12 inches of vertical movement). Also we need to consider that a lot of Stuff+ calculations tend to be based on whiff% (or heavily based on that). But there's some good research and commentary- that I personally agree on - that we should be looking at run value (RV/100) since what pitchers are ultimately trying to do is prevent runs, not only generate whiffs. It's why sinkers look terrible in most Stuff+ calculations, but they aren't all bad pitches.

I haven't gotten an update on Hodge's data for a few weeks, but his horizontal movement cuts the ball in a similar way to Justin Steele's. If you compare his fastball to Driveline's "Blob", Hodge's fastball is outside the dead zone here due largely to the cutting action (approx -1 inch horizontal movement and an average of 92.5 mph which was from earlier this year). And he throws this fastball from a low release height. Obviously the velocity is different, but Hodge's release height is low like Edwin Díaz.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs try to still get Hodge's fastball to generate more ride so it's a cut-ride fastball similar to Leeper's. Additional ride on the ball along with his release height and a mph bump or two would be pretty deadly.

 

This is great. The bold kind of fascinates me, because incorporating whiff rate into a stuff metric seems really dumb? It feels like "Stuff" should purely be about inputs. Velocity, spin, movement, approach angle, any sort of metric you can put around deception, etc. And then concurrently, we need to improve pitcher run values. Strike %, whiff rate, exit velocity and launch angle allowed, etc.

 

Including whiff rate in stuff+ makes it a weird in-between for a process metric vs. a results metric. It'd be like including batting average in FIP. You learn more from FIP and ERA being separate than you do by trying to take the best parts of both.

[Named After Maddux]

 

 

 

This fastball shape stuff ties into my Hodge comment in the last post. Separating those fastballs and breaking balls is a must!

 

This point isn't universally agreed upon by teams. Right now there's a common sentiment that vertical movement is second only to velocity, but it's definitely more nuanced about it. The Cubs, in particular, are a team that believes in incorporating fastballs with relative (or actual) cut to them for certain pitchers. Part of that is that when used well in pitch design, these pitches produce softer contact on balls in play. The relative cut added to a four-seam tends to keep it out of the true dead zone, which is where fastballs have equal horizontal and vertical movement numbers (like if a pitch had 10 inches of horizontal and 10-12 inches of vertical movement). Also we need to consider that a lot of Stuff+ calculations tend to be based on whiff% (or heavily based on that). But there's some good research and commentary- that I personally agree on - that we should be looking at run value (RV/100) since what pitchers are ultimately trying to do is prevent runs, not only generate whiffs. It's why sinkers look terrible in most Stuff+ calculations, but they aren't all bad pitches.

I haven't gotten an update on Hodge's data for a few weeks, but his horizontal movement cuts the ball in a similar way to Justin Steele's. If you compare his fastball to Driveline's "Blob", Hodge's fastball is outside the dead zone here due largely to the cutting action (approx -1 inch horizontal movement and an average of 92.5 mph which was from earlier this year). And he throws this fastball from a low release height. Obviously the velocity is different, but Hodge's release height is low like Edwin Díaz.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs try to still get Hodge's fastball to generate more ride so it's a cut-ride fastball similar to Leeper's. Additional ride on the ball along with his release height and a mph bump or two would be pretty deadly.

 

This is great. The bold kind of fascinates me, because incorporating whiff rate into a stuff metric seems really dumb? It feels like "Stuff" should purely be about inputs. Velocity, spin, movement, approach angle, any sort of metric you can put around deception, etc. And then concurrently, we need to improve pitcher run values. Strike %, whiff rate, exit velocity and launch angle allowed, etc.

 

Including whiff rate in stuff+ makes it a weird in-between for a process metric vs. a results metric. It'd be like including batting average in FIP. You learn more from FIP and ERA being separate than you do by trying to take the best parts of both.

 

People are pretty secretive about what goes into Stuff+ calculations but what I’ve gathered from asking around is that most take those inputs you mentioned and then create a grade based on how a pitch with those inputs results in success. The thing is that whiffs are often heavily weighted (or the only large factor included) because there’s less confounders there. It’s independent of more factors than some other stats and metrics.

Ajay Patel is a data analyst intern who dove into what it would look like if we evaluated individual pitches based on expected run value instead of one focused on whiffs. It gets super into the weeds, but was pretty interesting if you want to dive more into it. https://ajaypatell8.medium.com/xrv-working-through-quantifying-pitches-1f9125e1c833

[CaliforniaRaisin]

is caissie the only relevant piece left from the darvish trade? was it worth it?

 

Preciado's season has been a mess, but as a 19 year old in full season ball (18 actually for most of his pre-injury play time) it's not a total write him off situation

 

Yeison Santana progressed quite a bit this year. The ceiling is quite limited but I don't think an MLB bench bat is out of the question

 

Ismael Mena is getting pretty safe to write off

 

So Caissie's definitely the jewel of the deal. Whether he's the only relevant guy probably depends on your definition of relevant, but it's certainly not unfair to say. I think the deal was worth it, but at the moment it looks like Jed did fine rather than particularly good. There's probably some extenuating circumstances doing a deal that big at that time however.

 

This seems like the value you end up with these type of trades. One top 100-ish prospect who will be a legit big leaguer, one other guy who will make the bigs but probably not a big role and the rest don’t work out.

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1574560984295174145?t=UuU5lQXsdo1twBXCU60LiA&s=19

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Daniel Palencia, RHP, CHC

It’s hard not to like pitchers who can regularly touch triple digits. Last year he was on this list because of the big velocity and chance to make an impact in the bullpen. That really hasn’t changed, but there were big strides made between last year and this year that make me believe his ceiling has raised from low leverage to potentially high leverage. The 100+ MPH fastballs remain, but what really jumps out is more consistency with his offspeed. His slider breaks on two planes and his changeup has very nice armside fade to it. What struck me about those offerings was the usage. There were a few outings where he would pitch backwards by getting ahead with the offspeed and coming back with the 70-grade fastball. There are still command questions in a big way, but the stuff is extremely fun.

 

Luis Devers, RHP, CHC

This is one of those changeups that people might eventually debate if it’s a screwball or not. It has that much movement. If Hidalgo has a plus changeup, Devers has a 70-grade changeup. There’s also a fastball that gets up to the mid-90s with a tight breaking curveball. The changeup is the main offering, though. He uses it early, and he uses it often. Devers will not stop using it, nor should he. Outside of the pure stuff, he messes up timing during his delivery, too. His command was excellent this year, but the whiffs went down once he got out of Low-A. So while there’s a lot of potential here, there’s still room to grow. He might eventually be a leverage reliever relying on his big changeup. Relying on a changeup as much as he does can be a tough road as the hitters get better. I mentioned the whiffs dropping after being promoted, that can be why. The only pitcher that comes to mind immediately that used a changeup as a primary pitch is Jovani Moran from the Twins. He also has a mid-90s fastball so the stuff comps pretty well, though Moran is a lefty and Devers is a righty. Success can happen, Moran gets tons of whiffs with his changeup. There just might be a learning curve for Devers as the hitters get more advanced.

 

Yonathan Perlaza, OF, CHC

Another example of The Daily Sheet leading to a player I watched and enjoyed. Perlaza is an interesting case. Early in his career he had next to no power. From 2016-2019 he never hit more than three home runs. Then he started growing into some power and smacked 15 homeruns in 2021 and 23 this year. He’s taken a big jump in that area while not losing the speed he had early in his career, swiping 15 bags. For Perlaza specifically, it was a ridiculous hot streak in August that caught my eye, then I went and watched him play. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with a quick and smooth swing from both sides of the plate. The biggest concern is more consistency at the plate, but for only 23 years old the improvements all around his game so far are very impressive.

 

Richard Gallardo, RHP, CHC

Of everyone on this list, Gallardo is the one I most wrestled with including. He has a mid-90s fastball complemented by a curveball that he throws quite a bit. He rounds out his arsenal with what appears to be a sinker or two-seam, and a slider. The pitch mix works well enough, and Gallardo even saw an appearance in Double-A before this year was over. I think his stuff will play, but that’s not why I was questioning involving him. Frankly, I just hadn’t seen much of him compared to the others on this list. Usually, I wouldn’t mention that, but it leads to the real reason I wanted to include him. This is the guy has that dog in him. The camera kept showing it in his 13 strikeout game, and I bought in. He has a bulldog, I’m better than you-type mentality and those guys just bring a little extra to the table.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No surprises: