Minor League Musings

[Named After Maddux]

...I read that Palencia comment, but according to the Cubs that’s not the case. He’s still in the starter group.

 

Thanks, Greg. That's really good to hear. Thanks for input.

 

Tangent question: Have you heard anything on McAvene? He pitched a couple of bad innings last summer, so I'd thought he was perhaps substantially rehabbed by last August for that to be true, and would be ready to go. Before camp formally opened, I'd thought the new farm boss had said he was good.

 

But now I haven't heard any reports of him pitching in camp games or being on any opening rosters, and Phil had reference to him being in the IR group.

 

Did he perhaps have a setback, or an additional procedure? Or something totally different? Or is this perhaps just super-duper due-diligence? Or still wanting him healthy pitch-labbing to figure out what if any pitches might actually work for him, and not wanting him facing live hitters for fear that might set back developmental modifications, or something?

 

McAvene is a tough one because I do know he’s in the rehab group. I thought earlier in camp he was making progress, but I haven’t heard anything concrete.

I know he’s not on any of the rosters (at least as of when they informed the players last week). We think those come out tomorrow, but that’s an educated guess.

 

I was really hopeful that McAvene could make SB this year out of camp, but alas. It is an unbelievably stacked pitching staff. They’re like 7 deep in starters and the pen should have some plus stuff coming out of it most nights: Reid, Estrada, Albertos, Nunez, Bigge.

[craig]

Zach Leigh had gotten some buzz and some ranking respect. Is he injured? Do we know how badly? Kind of an old cat to start with, so may be one of those guys where the velocity jump and pitch-lab adjustments resulted in injury?

[Hrubes20]

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/where-cubs-prospects-are-starting-2022-season

 

This article has Nwogu starting at ExST ftr, no injury listed where it is for others

 

He's a 3rd round pick, played last year at 22 anyway, has obvious power potential, didn't play ball full time until college...maybe the org goal for a guy like this is to hopefully be one of those late blooming upper minors bats anyway? Those guys have been finding work in recent years. For a 22 YO college bat in A ball last year, probably a corner defender in the MLs, there was much swing and miss and too many GBs (1.03 GO/AO, 45%)

 

Also also I thought I saw a tweet from Bryant Smith that suggested Franklin's knee injury was serious but can't find it. The one that's up suggests it wasn't so :dontknow:

 

Hmm. Now that I think about it more, wasn't there a blurb somewhere that they are completely overhauling Nwogu's swing? Maybe they thought the new swing needed a bit more work before going to full season ball. It surely wasn't a production issue in A ball last year. He was really good the last 2.5 months or so there.

[Bertz]

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/04/08/strumpf-morel-velazquez-return-to-what-promises-to-be-a-loaded-double-a-tennessee-offense/

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/04/08/high-a-south-bend-roster-reveals-one-of-minors-best-rotations-and-is-that-caissie-and-howards-music/

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/04/08/triantos-crow-armstrong-preciado-highlight-fun-up-and-coming-low-a-myrtle-beach-roster/

 

Bryan Smith's previews for each of the three affiliates kicking off today are unsurprisingly great

 

Overall each team is fairly strong, though Tenn is weird because most of the strong bits are guys that probably ought to be at Iowa. So it feels like the fact that they're not means I should withdraw a bit of optimism from each.

 

The SB rotation...good god. I didn't follow the minors when Prior et al were coming up, but this is easily the best rotation we've had at a minor league affiliate in 20 years. (Unless...am I forgetting some brief point where all three of Archer/Cashner/Mcnutt overlapped?)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Low-A Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

Top 100 Prospects: None

Notables: Reggie Preciado, SS; Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF; James Triantos, 2B; Owen Caissie

 

The Pelicans don’t have any current Top 100 Prospects, but they have a few who could be on the list by year’s end. Preciado and Triantos form an extremely gifted middle-diamond duo, and Crow-Armstrong should flag down just about anything that gets over their heads. Caissie, too, turned heads in 2021 and could hit his way up the rankings as the summer moves along. Three of the four players mentioned were acquired in trade (Triantos is the exception) and the very early returns suggest the Cubs did well during the teardown of their big league team.

[Hrubes20]

That Tennessee team is going to be really boring to watch on non-Jensen nights if Velazquez turns back into a pumpkin. I don't see one potential big league regular on that entire squad.

 

Pitching in MB is boring as well, but at least they have a really fun lineup to follow every day.

 

SB has it all. As Bertz said, I don't remember a rotation like this one where there is a legit interesting SP going every night.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That Tennessee team is going to be really boring to watch on non-Jensen nights if Velazquez turns back into a pumpkin. I don't see one potential big league regular on that entire squad.

 

They do have at least a handful of half-interesting guys who are one yet-unmade adjustment from being on a decent MLB trajectory. Morel is the obvious one, and Strumpf and Ball have the pedigree to change their trajectory too.

 

But largely I'm with Bertz, I saw this tweet and thought 'oh, outside of Myrtle Beach there's like a max of 2.5 interesting players per lineup'

[Bertz]

 

Not shocked that the Angels are the first team we've heard about on the bad end of this

[Coach R]

 

Not shocked that the Angels are the first team we've heard about on the bad end of this

As the worst employee I ever had used to say, “If the minimum wasn’t good enough, it wouldn’t be the minimum.”

[Hrubes20]

AZPhil has a post about the EXST roster. Brayan Altuve has apparently been moved to the OF.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/04142022/2022-cubs-extended-spring-training-roster

[CaliforniaRaisin]

AZPhil has a post about the EXST roster. Brayan Altuve has apparently been moved to the OF.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/04142022/2022-cubs-extended-spring-training-roster

 

Hope Koen Moreno’s injury isn’t serious, especially after he missed last season.

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

Hitter claims to have been hit on the hand, shaking it off in evident discomfort. Pitcher takes exception, either saying it didn't hit him or that he's playing up the damage. Decides to stare down and chirp at the hitter, who is a behemoth, and gets absolutely decked. Then once he comes to, he tries to attack a different opponent and proceeds to get curbstomped in a 1-3. Ouch.

[Bertz]

Small sample caveats blah blah blah PCA's numbers are really fun right now

 

- Running a .233/.410/.533 overall line

- Microscopic 25% groundball rate

- 5 steals in 8 games

- 7 walks to only 6 strikeouts

- Pulling the ball 54.2% of the time (this is a lot, would have been third in the league last year)

- Popping up a lot, 20%, about double MLB average

 

Obviously tiny sample, obviously only A ball, but it's a really unique mix of skills. Very few guys pull the ball that much, and very few hit so much in the air. Combine that with patience and legit speed, and if he was doing this in the majors he'd be a unicorn. Looking around, younger Jose Ramirez is the closest comp I can find. Hitting like that as a ++ defensive center fielder? That'd be horsefeathering wild.

[Bertz]

Fun starting pitching numbers now. Still tiny samples, though everyone has started at least two games

 

- Each of Kilian, Herz, and Wicks are running groundball rates north of 60%

- Each of Kilian, Herz, and Wicks have K-BB%'s of more than 20% (only 33 MLB SPs last year with >50 IP managed that). Herz is north of 30%, which only 7 MLB pitchers period (starter or reliever) with 50+ innings did that last year (deGrom and Burnes the only starters)

- Herz and Wicks are getting popups on more than 25% of their flyballs

- Combine that with the groundballs, and something like 70-75% of these three's balls in play can't possibly be dongs (and have a very hard time being XBHs). That is extreme contact management

 

Shifting focus to our second tier of guys:

 

- Ryan Jensen and Daniel Palencia are walking too many guys, but also in the 60+% GB rate club, and also striking out a more than a quarter of guys they see

- Anderson Espinoza and Riley Thompson are not managing contact well, but both join Herz in the 30+% K-BB% club

 

Mixed results for the latter group, though certainly more good than bad in the very early going here. Unfortunately aside from the reports on velo, the less said about Kohl Franklin and Max Bain the better.

[Bertz]

 

Three months of Cristian Hernandez box scores!

[JeffH]

Pick a different comp. The Bulgarian dude is going to be Goldschmidt.

[David]

Pick a different comp. The Bulgarian dude is going to be Goldschmidt.

 

i'm confused

 

isn't that who he's talking about

[JeffH]

Blah. Yes. Poor reading comprehension mixed with alcohol.

[Banedon]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Prospect Q&A: Cubs outfielder Crow-Armstrong: Chicago's No. 6 prospect discusses rehab, adding power to profile

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Anecdotally it seems like a lot of hitters have improved over the last couple weeks, so I thought I'd check on it more holistically. Here's the prospects by level that Fangraphs has scouting data on and their performance from the 8th to the 17th, and then after that.

 

 

Iowa - 1 player, -83 points of OPS

 

 

Davis -83

Before: .189/.318/.324

After: .216/.262/.297

 

 

Tennessee - 4 players, average +368

 

 

Ball -40

Before: .281/.303/.438

After: .227/.292/.409

 

Morel +167

Before: .276/.364/.448

After: .318/.388/.591

 

Velazquez +971 (!)

Before: .156/.206/.281

After: .350/.458/1.000

 

Strumpf +375

Before: .148/.281/.296

After: .257/.381/.571

 

 

South Bend - 5 players, average +309

 

 

Caissie +299

Before: .077/.143/.077

After: .192/.250/.269

 

Canario +550

Before: .188/.278/.313

After: .356/.408/.733

 

Verdugo +478

Before: .174/.208/.261

After: .364/.462/.485

 

Pinango -221

Before: .286/.375/.429

After: .214/.250/.333

 

Howard + 439

Before: .138/.257/.138

After: .308/.372/.462

 

 

Myrtle Beach - 5 players, +296

 

 

Alcantara +98

Before: .211/.318/.368

After: .256/.365/.419

 

Triantos +453

Before: .125/.216/.156

After: .348/.412/.413

 

Preciado +184

Before: .091/.118/.121

After: .188/.235/.188

 

Santana +124

Before: .222/.391/.278

After: .357/.400/.393

 

Crow-Armstrong +623

Before: .211/.375/.263

After: .449/.526/.735

 

 

This is more interesting than it is proof of something, because opponent quality can vary and the methodology is very simple(e.g. I feel better about Ball's -40 than I do about Preciado's +184), but the consistency across levels and over a number of players is noteworthy. For the hitters at least, it's giving me an extra reason to not think too too hard about their season lines until we get to Memorial Day.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

Anecdotally it seems like a lot of hitters have improved over the last couple weeks, so I thought I'd check on it more holistically. Here's the prospects by level that Fangraphs has scouting data on and their performance from the 8th to the 17th, and then after that.

 

 

Iowa - 1 player, -83 points of OPS

 

 

Davis -83

Before: .189/.318/.324

After: .216/.262/.297

 

 

Tennessee - 4 players, average +368

 

 

Ball -40

Before: .281/.303/.438

After: .227/.292/.409

 

Morel +167

Before: .276/.364/.448

After: .318/.388/.591

 

Velazquez +971 (!)

Before: .156/.206/.281

After: .350/.458/1.000

 

Strumpf +375

Before: .148/.281/.296

After: .257/.381/.571

 

 

South Bend - 5 players, average +309

 

 

Caissie +299

Before: .077/.143/.077

After: .192/.250/.269

 

Canario +550

Before: .188/.278/.313

After: .356/.408/.733

 

Verdugo +478

Before: .174/.208/.261

After: .364/.462/.485

 

Pinango -221

Before: .286/.375/.429

After: .214/.250/.333

 

Howard + 439

Before: .138/.257/.138

After: .308/.372/.462

 

 

Myrtle Beach - 5 players, +296

 

 

Alcantara +98

Before: .211/.318/.368

After: .256/.365/.419

 

Triantos +453

Before: .125/.216/.156

After: .348/.412/.413

 

Preciado +184

Before: .091/.118/.121

After: .188/.235/.188

 

Santana +124

Before: .222/.391/.278

After: .357/.400/.393

 

Crow-Armstrong +623

Before: .211/.375/.263

After: .449/.526/.735

 

 

This is more interesting than it is proof of something, because opponent quality can vary and the methodology is very simple(e.g. I feel better about Ball's -40 than I do about Preciado's +184), but the consistency across levels and over a number of players is noteworthy. For the hitters at least, it's giving me an extra reason to not think too too hard about their season lines until we get to Memorial Day.

 

A couple possibilities I can think of

 

1. The team probably has guys working on specific mechanical changes during instructs/ST. It might take a few weeks to translate some things (e.g. start your hands lower) into actual production against real competitive pitching

 

2. Guys saw very few pitchers more than once per game for first few weeks of the year. I believe most teams had starters stretch out slowly akin to what we saw the Cubs do, so while I wasn't tracking it exactly that might be about the time starters regularly began getting to 15-18 batters faced

 

3. Related to #2, I wonder if starters were throwing harder? Anecdotally I feel like we saw a lot more "OMG Riley Thompson hit 100" type of news the first few weeks. Maybe that was because it was fresh and exciting, but maybe it was because it was happening more due to the shorter SP workloads

 

There's also always the weather factor, though Tenn and MB seeing the same swing as SB makes me think that's not the primary explanation.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1521217696527908864?s=21&t=k2ozgYhbEBeaN11RMzncZw

 

‪This is something I had assumed was true in the past without looking it up.‬ I assume Boddy has stats to back that up.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

The Cubs had the hottest prospect in baseball last week:

 

1. Alexander Canario, OF, Cubs

Team: High-A South Bend (Midwest)

Age: 21

 

Why He’s Here: .500/.536/1.000 (13-for-26), 7 R, 1 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBIs, 1 BB, 6 SO, 2-for-2 SB

 

The Scoop: The Cubs already appear to have done well for themselves by acquiring righthander Caleb Kilian from the Giants in last year’s deadline trade for Kris Bryant. Now Canario, the other prospect the Cubs acquired in the deal, is starting to heat up. The Dominican right fielder had five multi-hit games last week, starting the week off with a two-homer game and finishing it with homers in back-to-back games. It was a welcome explosion after he began the year 9-for-51 (.177) and provided a glimpse of the impact power he possesses. (KG)

 

And PCA is back on here for the second consecutive week:

 

14. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach

Age: 20

 

Why He’s Here: .480/.519/.640 (12-for-25), 7 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: Crow-Armstrong is acquitting himself quite well in the Cubs organization. Acquired in last year’s trade with the Mets for Javier Baez, Crow-Armstrong is batting .382 and riding a nine-game hitting streak. That included a scorching showing at the plate against Columbia last week. The dynamic center fielder recorded multiple hits in five of six games and hit his first home run in his power-stifling home park, a sign of the power gains he's made in his return from shoulder surgery. (KG)