Sickels' Top 20 Cubs prospects for 2016

[sneakypower]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/1/20/10762082/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2016

 

Graduations have thinned the upper levels of this system, but I still like what the Cubs have down on the farm. Many of the B- guys have breakout upside potential, notably De La Cruz, Jimenez, and Cease. Sands, Hudson, and Kellogg along with Justin Steele and Kyle Twomey give five legitimate southpaw prospects at the A-ball level who could develop into major league starting pitchers.

[biittner77]

I can't help feeling that the Cubs are due to not hit on any of these guys. Not that we have any cause to complain given the recent successes.

[Proven Veteran]

I like the stuff he wrote, specifically:

 

4) Willson Contreras, C, Grade B-/B: Age 23, hit .333/.414/.478 with 34 doubles, eight homers, 57 walks, 62 strikeouts in 454 at-bats in Double-A. Excellent season, led Southern League in batting average but has never played that well before and it is not unanimous that he can keep it up. Good BB/K/PA ratio is in his favor. Defense is erratic and he needs another year in the minors to refine it, has the tools but still needs more polish. Non-Cubs sources not as sanguine on him as Cubs-oriented sources.

 

10) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Grade B-: Posted 2.08 ERA with 72/32 K/BB in 95 innings in Double-A, 76 hits, missed much of season with strained lat. History of nagging injuries leads to role questions but features four pitches (92-95 fastball, curve, cutter, change) and usually throws strikes. Beware Prospect Fatigue unfairly lowering stock but there are legit questions about how he fits on roster.

 

12) Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, hit .270/.318/.415 in High-A then .291/.379/.462 in Double-A, switch hitter with good approach, moderate power. Very good with glove at third base but doesn’t have range for other infield spots nor run well enough for the outfield. A good role player for someone.

 

16) Donnie Dewees, OF, Grade C+: Age 22, second round pick from University of North Florida hit .266/.306/.376 in pro debut in Northwest League, five homers, 19 steals, 14 walks, 54 strikeouts in 282 at-bats. Good speed with more power potential than early stats indicate, will need to tighten up strike zone.

 

17) Trevor Clifton, RHP, Grade C+: Age 20, posted 3.98 ERA with 103/47 K/BB in 109 innings in Low-A, 92-96 fastball, curve can be nasty, still working on command and change-up, potential breakout candidate with mid-rotation upside.

 

18) Carson Sands, LHP, Grade C+: Age 20, fourth round pick in 2014, posted 3.92 ERA with 41/21 K/BB in 57 innings in Northwest League, 62 hits. Erratic, at his best shows 90-95 fastball with plus curve and solid change-up, but secondary pitches come and go and command needs work. Another possible number three starter eventually.

 

20) Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Grade C+: Age 21, Canadian lefty was fifth round pick out of Arizona State, didn’t thrive in pro debut (4.98 ERA, 14/8 K/BB in 22 innings) but one of my picks for a breakout candidate. Big guy (6-6, 230) with clean delivery, throws strikes with breaking ball and change-up, fastball velocity was not special in college. My guess is that the fastball MPH improves in pro ball and he emerges as another mid-rotation candidate.

 

Also props on noticing the burgeoning LHP in the system...would throw Paulino in that group as well, he might hit full season ball this year. Really liked the order of the top 4 and the names on the list in general - I don't miss anyone except Tseng.

 

Senor Gato, eh?

[David]

I like the stuff he wrote, specifically:

 

4) Willson Contreras, C, Grade B-/B: Age 23, hit .333/.414/.478 with 34 doubles, eight homers, 57 walks, 62 strikeouts in 454 at-bats in Double-A. Excellent season, led Southern League in batting average but has never played that well before and it is not unanimous that he can keep it up. Good BB/K/PA ratio is in his favor. Defense is erratic and he needs another year in the minors to refine it, has the tools but still needs more polish. Non-Cubs sources not as sanguine on him as Cubs-oriented sources.

 

10) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Grade B-: Posted 2.08 ERA with 72/32 K/BB in 95 innings in Double-A, 76 hits, missed much of season with strained lat. History of nagging injuries leads to role questions but features four pitches (92-95 fastball, curve, cutter, change) and usually throws strikes. Beware Prospect Fatigue unfairly lowering stock but there are legit questions about how he fits on roster.

 

12) Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, hit .270/.318/.415 in High-A then .291/.379/.462 in Double-A, switch hitter with good approach, moderate power. Very good with glove at third base but doesn’t have range for other infield spots nor run well enough for the outfield. A good role player for someone.

 

16) Donnie Dewees, OF, Grade C+: Age 22, second round pick from University of North Florida hit .266/.306/.376 in pro debut in Northwest League, five homers, 19 steals, 14 walks, 54 strikeouts in 282 at-bats. Good speed with more power potential than early stats indicate, will need to tighten up strike zone.

 

17) Trevor Clifton, RHP, Grade C+: Age 20, posted 3.98 ERA with 103/47 K/BB in 109 innings in Low-A, 92-96 fastball, curve can be nasty, still working on command and change-up, potential breakout candidate with mid-rotation upside.

 

18) Carson Sands, LHP, Grade C+: Age 20, fourth round pick in 2014, posted 3.92 ERA with 41/21 K/BB in 57 innings in Northwest League, 62 hits. Erratic, at his best shows 90-95 fastball with plus curve and solid change-up, but secondary pitches come and go and command needs work. Another possible number three starter eventually.

 

20) Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Grade C+: Age 21, Canadian lefty was fifth round pick out of Arizona State, didn’t thrive in pro debut (4.98 ERA, 14/8 K/BB in 22 innings) but one of my picks for a breakout candidate. Big guy (6-6, 230) with clean delivery, throws strikes with breaking ball and change-up, fastball velocity was not special in college. My guess is that the fastball MPH improves in pro ball and he emerges as another mid-rotation candidate.

 

Also props on noticing the burgeoning LHP in the system...would throw Paulino in that group as well, he might hit full season ball this year. Really liked the order of the top 4 and the names on the list in general - I don't miss anyone except Tseng.

 

Senor Gato, eh?

 

Where've you been?

[Proven Veteran]

I like the stuff he wrote, specifically:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also props on noticing the burgeoning LHP in the system...would throw Paulino in that group as well, he might hit full season ball this year. Really liked the order of the top 4 and the names on the list in general - I don't miss anyone except Tseng.

 

Senor Gato, eh?

 

Where've you been?

 

I can't keep up with the different names. You have the SQL advantage.

[davell]

He's not been that here. He was Gato on PSD.

[toonsterwu]

Don't have a major issue with this list. Don't particularly love the idea that Sands got ranked and Steele didn't, as I think Steele has a higher ceiling, but that's quibbling. Also don't particularly love the gap from McKinney to Zagunis, but again, could arguably be quibbling, as he's got that as a B vs. C+ difference.

[NOLA]

I can't help feeling that the Cubs are due to not hit on any of these guys. Not that we have any cause to complain given the recent successes.

Curious, does that come from a long time Cubs fan sense of fatalism or is there a real sense that these guys a sorta meh? The dollars and focus put into the farm would suggest that there will be some leaps made by at least a couple of them.

[davell]

The player development aspect of our organization is worlds ahead of where it was. Obviously, there will be misses, but I'm confident we'll hit on our fair share too. There's a very nice mix of high upside guys at the lower levels and solid contributing, role playing types in the upper levels.

 

The cool thing is we aren't counting on the Almora, Contreras, Edwards types to be elite. If any of that group becomes more than average, its just piling on. The guys that have the upside, Jimenez, Cease, Martinez, etc.....If they actually develop, it'll be flat out insane as to the amount of talent we've amassed.(if its not already)

[David]

The player development aspect of our organization is worlds ahead of where it was. Obviously, there will be misses, but I'm confident we'll hit on our fair share too. There's a very nice mix of high upside guys at the lower levels and solid contributing, role playing types in the upper levels.

 

The cool thing is we aren't counting on the Almora, Contreras, Edwards types to be elite. If any of that group becomes more than average, its just piling on. The guys that have the upside, Jimenez, Cease, Martinez, etc.....If they actually develop, it'll be flat out insane as to the amount of talent we've amassed.(if its not already)

 

yeah, we need to stop viewing player development and the farm system through the lens of the last however many decades of cubs farm systems. this is a completely different animal and we are one of the elites in that department now.

[Northsider]

Curious, does that come from a long time Cubs fan sense of fatalism or is there a real sense that these guys a sorta meh? The dollars and focus put into the farm would suggest that there will be some leaps made by at least a couple of them.

 

There should be some general acceptance that these guys are not close to what the Cubs just pulled off with Bryant (top 2 pick, top prospect in all of baseball), Schwarber (4th overall pick), Soler (30 million dollar prospect), and Russell (top 5 prospect in baseball by age 19/20). Hell, even in the ML group there's a tier system - Bryant's in a whole other league from even the four listed above, personally Russell's the only one really close.

 

While guys like Edwards, Almora, Candelario, Contreras, and McKinney can hang around in this league, even possibly start one day in this league, they can't/haven't hit like those guys up top and shouldn't be viewed to be as automatic as those guys were.

 

I think I'm higher on Almora than everyone else on this board. Almora's second stint at AA, he was a year younger than Inciarte and two younger than Pollock in their respective stints, and his peripherals look pretty similar to their with a little more power than Inciarte and a little less than Pollock. His first season there was plagued with a hamate injury and family issues IIRC, so I'm not as concerned that it was such a down season, especially given his age.

[CubsWin]

Curious, does that come from a long time Cubs fan sense of fatalism or is there a real sense that these guys a sorta meh? The dollars and focus put into the farm would suggest that there will be some leaps made by at least a couple of them.

 

There should be some general acceptance that these guys are not close to what the Cubs just pulled off with Bryant (top 2 pick, top prospect in all of baseball), Schwarber (4th overall pick), Soler (30 million dollar prospect), and Russell (top 5 prospect in baseball by age 19/20). Hell, even in the ML group there's a tier system - Bryant's in a whole other league from even the four listed above, personally Russell's the only one really close.

 

While guys like Edwards, Almora, Candelario, Contreras, and McKinney can hang around in this league, even possibly start one day in this league, they can't/haven't hit like those guys up top and shouldn't be viewed to be as automatic as those guys were.

 

I think I'm higher on Almora than everyone else on this board. Almora's second stint at AA, he was a year younger than Inciarte and two younger than Pollock in their respective stints, and his peripherals look pretty similar to their with a little more power than Inciarte and a little less than Pollock. His first season there was plagued with a hamate injury and family issues IIRC, so I'm not as concerned that it was such a down season, especially given his age.

I'm also higher on him than most. What has me most hopeful is his 2nd half last season. He had been working on being more selective and waiting for pitches he could drive. The thought was, of course, that he'd eliminate a lot of his weak contact raising his batting average while making pitchers challenge him raising his power numbers. That is exactly what happened in the 2nd half. All of this coincided with his adding a leg kick and time spent with Team USA.

 

I'm still not buying his breakout. I need to see more in AAA this year. But, for me, his ceiling is still high and he has time to reach it.

[sneakypower]

Sickels throwing amazing amounts of shade at certain guys in here

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/3/28/11310760/the-top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2016

[Bobson Dugnutt]

"Others in the picture:"

 

http://www.citymetric.com/sites/default/files/styles/nodeimage/public/article_2014/09/2796367140_0c312afa72_o_1.jpg?itok=lve4WYWL

[UMFan83]

Seems like Candelario got a nice boost due to his spring at least.