Carolina League Top 20

[toonsterwu]

Figured I'd throw the thread up since I just caught the rankings. If someone has a BA subscription, I'd be curious what they listed for Underwood, Candelario, and Zagunis. I'm assuming McKinney didn't qualify. I'm quite fascinated at the ranking of Candelario here. At first glance, I didn't expect him to rank in the early teens. As for the overall list, no major qualms, although I might be tempted to slide Reynaldo Lopez right behind Giolito, but that's a heavy buy on Lopez on my part. I'm not sure I really like the PIvetta ranking there, although I can sort of see it. After the top tier of talent, it sort of drops off a bit, so there's a large mix.

 

CAROLINA LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Potomac (Nationals) 11. Trey Michalczewski, 3b, Winston-Salem (White Sox)

2. Bradley Zimmer, of, Lynchburg (Indians) 12. Adam Plutko, rhp, Lynchburg (Indians)

3. Manuel Margot, of, Salem (Red Sox) 13. Jeimer Candelario, 3b, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

4. Reynaldo Lopez, rhp, Potomac (Nationals) 14. Adam Engel, of, Winston-Salem (White Sox)

5. Clint Frazier, of, Lynchburg (Indians) 15. Mark Zagunis, of, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

6. Cody Reed, lhp, Wilmington (Royals) 16. Trey Mancini, 1b, Frederick (Orioles)

7. Duane Underwood, rhp, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)17. Nellie Rodriguez, 1b, Lynchburg (Indians)

8. Nick Pivetta, rhp, Potomac (Nationals) 18. Dustin Peterson, of, Carolina (Braves)

9. Sam Travis, 1b, Salem (Red Sox) 19. Wendell Rijo, 2b, Salem (Red Sox)

10. Chance Sisco, c, Frederick (Orioles) 20. Austen Williams, rhp, Potomac (Nationals)

[craig]

7. Underwood

13. Candelario

15. Zagunis

[craig]

McKinney didn't make either Carolina or Southern League lists.

 

Only 29 games at Myrtle, so agree he wasn't eligible.

77 games, so probably was eligible for Southern?

 

Almora made it as #19 in the Southern list. Southern League was strong, I think, so for Almora to make the list is more encouraging to me than it is disappointing that he wasn't ranked higher.

[Guest]

McKinney didn't make either Carolina or Southern League lists.

 

Only 29 games at Myrtle, so agree he wasn't eligible.

77 games, so probably was eligible for Southern?

 

Almora made it as #19 in the Southern list. Southern League was strong, I think, so for Almora to make the list is more encouraging to me than it is disappointing that he wasn't ranked higher.

huh...where do you see the southern league list?

[Guest]

From the "Carolina League in a Box":

 

Best Prospect Who Did Not Qualify For League Top 20

Myrtle Beach RF Billy McKinney hit .340 (35-for-103) with 11 extra-base hits and 17 walks in 29 games before the Cubs promoted him to Double-A Tennessee in mid-May.

[jersey cubs fan]

McKinney didn't make either Carolina or Southern League lists.

 

Only 29 games at Myrtle, so agree he wasn't eligible.

77 games, so probably was eligible for Southern?

 

Almora made it as #19 in the Southern list. Southern League was strong, I think, so for Almora to make the list is more encouraging to me than it is disappointing that he wasn't ranked higher.

huh...where do you see the southern league list?

website says its due October 7

[davell]

Did it mistakenly get posted for a bit or something?

[jersey cubs fan]

Did it mistakenly get posted for a bit or something?

He was ranked #18 last year.

[Johnny OHagan]

Did it mistakenly get posted for a bit or something?

 

They are in the 30 September edition of BA magazine. I can post where cubs prospects come but don't want to ruin it.

[craig]

Sorry! I'd seen the lists some time back, but hadn't realized the off-sync between the different media sources.

 

So, have you guys seen/shared the Carolina League second-ten? Or should that be not-discussed also?

[mul21]

Sorry! I'd seen the lists some time back, but hadn't realized the off-sync between the different media sources.

 

So, have you guys seen/shared the Carolina League second-ten? Or should that be not-discussed also?

 

He tweeted it out today so there's no reason not to post/discuss. I saw it anyway.

[craig]

7. Underwood

13. Candelario

15. Zagunis

 

Carolina has only 8 teams, versus Fl State's 12, so team's should average 2.5 guys per top-20 there. (Especially unlike the big Midwest league...)

 

I was very surprised to see Candelario on the list. (I had both Tseng and Zagunis well ahead of him on my list.)

 

I'd be curious to see their scouting comments. My impression from past is that while Candelario has improved enough to at least have a chance to stick at 3rd, that there was little expectation that he'd be a real asset defensive 3B. For a non-speed guy without an asset glove and with only 5 HR and a .733 OPS, while in his 3rd season in full-A ball, I'd not have thought he'd make the league top-20. Hopefully that means some managers/scouts see something I'd not appreciated: 15-20 HR power projection, and a solid chance to actually get to that? Some split, where he looks much better one-platoon side than his composite switch-hitting numbers tally to? Above-average 3B defense? I'll guess they're more up on his HR power than I'd expected.

 

The funny thing is that he was statistically superior in AA. Equal (5) HR in half the AB. K-rate, HR-rate, BB-rates all were better in AA, with resulting superior slash .291/.379./.462/.841. Will be interesting to see how much he falls off next summer. If he could otherwise replicate his other AA peripherals, while adding an extra 3-5 HR as can happen with a 22-year-old, maybe he'd look pretty interesting.

[davell]

Well, the 5 HR's were certainly in less than a seasons worth of AB's obviously. He's got more of a line drive stroke, so I doubt the power takes off past the 15-20 range. The D has gone from "doubt he sticks at 3B longterm" to "he's sticking and he's above average there". Which is a nice feather in his cap. He's moved at an above average rate for a guy at his age level, even with the hiccup last season.

 

He's obviously trade bait for us, we don't have a starting spot for him, if he winds up being thought of in that way.

 

I'm hoping he did well enough this season(especially in AA) that he's increased his stock to be a nice 2nd/3rd piece in a major deal or as a lead piece that nets us a good reliever. My hope is he's dealt in the offseason. Same with Vogelbach.

[Guest]

Here are the comments on him:

 

Candelario enjoyed a fine season between two levels, hitting .277/.339/.431 in 128 games at Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee, but is in the wrong organization for position prospects after the Cubs have integrated infielders such as Javier Baez, Kris Byrant and Addison Russell in the past two seasons.

 

Though he’s not particularly fleet of foot, Candelario draws good reviews at third base because of average hands, strong arm and willingness to play the game hard. He’s a switch-hitter with the potential for average and power but now shows a tendency to strikeout a bit too often (18 percent). In the Carolina League, Candelario showed more tools than production, but he turned it on once he reached Tennessee, where he put up an .842 OPS as a 21-year-old.

 

Candelario might take a little bit longer to incubate, and he might need a change of scenery, but he had the tool to be an average major leaguer.

[toonsterwu]

If a deal needed Candelario to "complete it", I'd be fine moving him, but with his red-hot swing at AA, color me a little fascinated if he can actually replicate that and significantly boost his value. Now, if you think that was a fluke, then okay, moving him now makes since. If he can do anything close to what he did in AA for another half-full season, his value will skyrocket considering his age and average-ish defensive ability at 3rd.

 

As for McKinney not being in the Southern League rankings ... if it's because he didn't qualify, okay, but I'd also get it because he didn't really light it up there before getting hurt, and he doesn't have the jump of the board tools to get away with average performance to make a list that should be fairly strong this year (well, I haven't checked qualification status, but sure felt like the Southern League was deep this year).

 

I get why Tseng and Zagunis are behind Candelario on a list like this, though. Neither really has a huge ceiling and I can understand some people justifying the idea of a young 3rd baseman with tools and some performance getting pushed ahead of them.

 

Almora at 19 is interesting. Fascinated how the list turns out.

[davell]

Those are last years numbers. Which in the end, isn't surprising. I'm thinking McKinney is a lock and Almora's late push won't be enough to get him on it.(I honestly like Almora more personally as a guy that winds up contributing for the Cubs)

 

As for Tseng, I have to wonder when the polish versus lack of plus stuff finally gets him(if it does). He's got a back end profile for sure. As does Blackburn, but I'd say there's at least a bit of hope still that Blackburn could project as a bit more.

[craig]

Those are last years numbers. Which in the end, isn't surprising. I'm thinking McKinney is a lock and Almora's late push won't be enough to get him on it.(I honestly like Almora more personally as a guy that winds up contributing for the Cubs)

 

As for Tseng, I have to wonder when the polish versus lack of plus stuff finally gets him(if it does). He's got a back end profile for sure. As does Blackburn, but I'd say there's at least a bit of hope still that Blackburn could project as a bit more.

 

Almora is 19th on this year's Southern League List.

McKinney isn't on it. Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, those are the three, obviously in that order.

 

Agree, toonster, McKinney doesn't have real signature tools, and the league was very deep with quality guys. As I said, I was actually surprised Almora still made it, even though his late rush has him back very high on my Cubs list. Doesn't mean McKinney won't have a good chance.

 

I also agree with your point on Candelario: not much point in trading now. 6-hot weeks at Tenn isn't going to get very strong value now. But if he was able to sustain that for 2-3 months while playing respected defense, his value by next July could be more substantial. I think it probably makes more sense to hold, and hope he improves enough to make it worthwhile. Assuming he doesn't sustain and we end up with nothing for him, not much lost because we'd not get much for him now anyway.

 

Tim, thanks for the Candelario comments. As with most anybody, HR's are kinda significant. Every HR is a hit for BA/OBP and 4 bases for slugging. Every HR justifies about 8 K's or whatever. So, the difference between a Candelario with 9 HR vs 18 HR is huge. That approaches 40-50 OPS points, all else equal. As a mid-teens HR guy, if the glove is now viewed as solid, he's a solid/decent starter. As a 6-10 HR guy, probably hard to be an intended starter for long.

[craig]

Candelario, Almora, and Contreras are all guys whose first halves could be interesting. None have been consistent or sustained prior to the last month or two of this year, except Contreras who did it all year, but had never been good before. Career year for Contreras, or reproducible? Career months for Candelario and Almora, or reproducible? Will be fascinating to see what carries over for these guys, if anything..

[craig]

Tim, what did they think on Zagunis's power projection? And his defensive profile future?

[davell]

Is Contreras top 10?

[davell]

Contreras seems like a prototypical late blooming C. I think I feel comfortable with him moving forward, especially with the BB/K%'s.

[CubsWin]

Candelario, Almora, and Contreras are all guys whose first halves could be interesting. None have been consistent or sustained prior to the last month or two of this year, except Contreras who did it all year, but had never been good before. Career year for Contreras, or reproducible? Career months for Candelario and Almora, or reproducible? Will be fascinating to see what carries over for these guys, if anything..

Agreed. Greatly looking forward to see how Almora and Contreras do in AAA and to see if Candelario can keep it going in AA to start next season.

 

I'm equally as interested to see how Underwood progresses. He was the top ranked Cub prospect on this list and hasn't been commented on much in this thread. (Talk about depth!)

 

As stacked as the Cubs are with young talent in the bigs already. There are still possible starters coming. Almora, Contreras and Underwood all have a shot to be regular position players/in the rotation. That's a fairly remarkable statement considering the players that joined the line-up this season. Never in my lifetime has the Cubs system been more successful or productive. Next year will certainly tell us a lot about the likelihood of this next crop contributing.

[CubsWin]

I also agree that there's no reason to trade Candelario yet unless someone is really interested in giving something up for him.

 

This Cubs FO rightly values depth. And there is more than one scenario in which Jeimer isn't blocked at the major league level. He's a fallback option for sure, but I'd rate Candelario as more likely to succeed at the major league level than Christian Villanueva. Necessity could require Bryant move to the OF. Castro could be traded. Baez could fail. Injuries, trades, plenty of reasons to hang onto him and see how he develops. One thing that gives me hope he's turned a corner was his 22 BB/21 K ratio in AA. I have a lot more confidence in the Cubs' ability to develop prospects now than ever before. I'd like to see what he can become.

 

If he can be an above average, switch-hitting 3B who hits 35-40 doubles, 10-15 HRs, with a solid BB/K ratio as a 22-year old in AA/AAA...

[Guest]

Underwood:

 

Underwood missed time this year with a balky right shoulder, but when he was healthy he impressed with his physicality and power arsenal.

 

Underwood begins his arsenal with power fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and has touched as high as 99 mph. Later in the year he also showed the ability to dial down the velocity but add powerful cutting action in on the hands of lefthanders. He couples his heater with a hard, downer curveball in the high 80s that can garner swings and misses when it’s working properly.

 

Underwood’s repertoire is finished with a changeup in the mid-80s. He throws the pitch with conviction and gets good fade away from lefties. If both secondary pitches reach their potential, he could be a mid-rotation starter, but his floor is as a power reliever at the back of a bullpen.

 

Zagunis:

 

A catcher at Virginia Tech, Zagunis moved to left field on a full-time basis this year in his first full season and impressed everyone with his keen eye at the plate. Carolina League managers identified him as having the best strike-zone discipline in the circuit, and he finished second in the league with 81 walks and with a .406 on-base percentage.

 

Zagunis is not a graceful athlete in the outfield, but he’s an average runner once he gets underway and gives plenty of effort. He’s going to be an average-over-power hitter who sets the table at the top of a lineup, which could lead to profile problems as a corner outfielder.

 

Still, Zagunis has enough strength and discipline in his game to suggest a power boost as he matures and moves up the ladder.

[craig]

Is Contreras top 10?

 

No.