Carolina League Top 20

[toonsterwu]

Still, Contreras making it on to what seems like a deep year in the Southern League is a nice sign. Sure, he had great offensive numbers, but BA always tries to mix in a balance of scouting and performance, so perhaps, without knowing what was said, this indicates that there's a level of development beyond sheer numbers.

 

Forgot all about the chat, None of my Cubs related questions made it on. I sort of dislike how they are combining league chats now - I guess it makes it easier for them, but it leads to fewer questions on each league. Let's see, the Cubs related one

 

Teddy (Granville): Hey Josh, thanks for the chat, I remember seeing you at Greenville and Tennessee earlier on in the season, but was wondering about your thoughts on the MB trio of pitchers, Tyler Skulina, Paul Blackburn, and Jen-ho Tseng? Skulina and Tseng both looked like back-end starters when I saw them earlier this year.

Josh Norris: You could find a few guys who liked that trio around the CL, but none of them really knocked anybody off the map. Of that three I’d probably take Tseng just because he’s the youngest and he’s got two average pitches in his FB and CB.

 

I think that's it. Nothing too insightful.

[craig]

Still, Contreras making it on to what seems like a deep year in the Southern League is a nice sign. Sure, he had great offensive numbers, but BA always tries to mix in a balance of scouting and performance.........

 

Contreras was #11. Pretty good in a strong, deep league. To put the depth into context, Schwarber was only #4 on the list, despite posting a 1.000+ OPS there with .430 OBP and 16 HR in 75 games, and then hitting another 16 for the Cubs. If the league has 3 guys better than Schwarber, and only six guys between Schwarber and Contreras, that's pretty favorable for Contreras.

 

I also suspect that there's some "where did this come from and will it last" questions with Contreras. Fifth season in the states:

.333/.413/.891 (2015)

.242/.320/.679, (2014)

.248/.320/.742, (2013).

.273/.316/.673, (2012)

.261/.305/.652. (2011)

 

When a guy's been in the .240-.275 batting average range, and suddenly he hits .333, can you believe it will last?

When a guy's been in the .305-.320 OBP for four years, and suddenly flashes .413, can you believe it will last?

When a guy's been in the .650-.750 OPS window for four years, and suddenly he's .891, can you believe it will last?

 

This year's numbers are just so wildly out of line with his past history, I suspect there's some natural and very appropriate hesitation on the kid.

Edited October 6, 2015 by craig

[CubsWin]

That is the first I've heard of Underwood's power curveball. It would be nice and convenient if he could use a high velocity fastball, a power curveball, and that changeup of his to start like...striking out minor league hitters. Is it so much to ask?

 

Zagunis strikes me as a guy who can/might hit for more power in Tennessee next year, but long term meh. Meh at best defense in the COF, below average ML power, and sure - a good eye - doesn't really add up to anything but maybe a spare OF.

 

Not a believer in Contreras yet. Not sure about his defense at C, and the bat isn't *that* good. They're all trade bait for me anyway - not a future Cubs starter in this lot.

I have no problem with Zagunis as a "spare part". A 4th OFer who can get on base has value. If he has a ceiling of Tommy La Stella as an OFer, I'll take it.

 

I disagree with you on Underwood and Contreras. Underwood is a top 100 prospect on many lists and has the arsenal and development curve at age 21 heading into AA to be a MOR. He held CL hitters to a .202 avg and got them to hit it on the ground with a 1.46 GO/AO. Ks would be nice, but it could be the Cubs are teaching him how to pitch so he can go deeper into games. He's 21 and has the stuff to generate weak contact and miss bats. Let's see if the Ks will come.

 

If you have questions about Contreras' defensively maybe this will help. As a converted infielder, Contreras has been ranked as a very good, athletic catch and throw guy for a couple of years now. He has been timed with a 1.85 pop time on a throw down to second — equivalent to a grade of 65 per Fangraphs' Carson Cistulli. Miguel Montero, who worked with him and watched him play during a 4 game rehab stint with Tennessee, either called him above average defensively or better and an above average starting catcher in the bigs.

 

miguel montero ‏@miggymont26 Aug 4

 

@2008_nbalottery @coolbearcjs wait until u see his defense and arm

cubpower ‏@ronawsumb Aug 4

 

@miggymont26 sure miss watching you play. Can Wilson contreras catch in the majors?

0 retweets 0 favorites

 

miguel montero ‏@miggymont26 Aug 4

 

@ronawsumb catch he's going to be one of the best trust me

 

miguel montero ‏@miggymont26 Aug 4

 

@ronawsumb all star major league catcher

 

Two more sober, less biased opinions...

John: How far has Wilson Contreras moved himself up the prospect list this year? Is he getting close to a top 100 guy? Thanks!

 

Klaw: He’s legit and one of the top catching prospects in the minors right now. Really, if you can catch and throw and hit just a little, you’re a top 100 consideration guy at this point.

Anonymous: I don’t know what to think about Wilson Contreras. Obviously, his stock went up this year, but how does he project at the MLB level?

 

Klaw: Above average regular behind the plate.

 

I'm still wait and see on his bat because it was just one season, but he was remarkably consistent all year and his BB/K ratio portends he can carry this year's success forward. He certainly has the ability to be a starter in the bigs and is on schedule to fill Ross' roster spot in 2017. It seems game calling and pitch framing are his two biggest areas left for improvement. Though not a finished product, he's close.

[craig]

.....Not a believer in Contreras yet. Not sure about his defense at C, and the bat isn't *that* good. They're all trade bait for me anyway - not a future Cubs starter in this lot.

 

Just to follow up on CubsWin's post. Montero is old for a catcher, his years are numbered. Whether or not Schwarber is going to be a high-usage catcher is very much uncertain. His defense may be too poor; his hitting might be so good they don't want to wear him out there; the may be so World-Series-Nowacrat that they don't want to invest big-league development time on him as a catcher?

 

So, I think there's a very clearly open path for Contreras to become a Cubs "starter". Whether that's a "share-time" catcher with Schwarber, who knows. Maybe Contreras plays a lot, Schwarber plays some and plays a lot of OF. Or, maybe Schwarber plays a lot at catcher and Contreras a little.

 

I think this year has been interesting; Montero is clearly the primary guy, but Schwarber and Ross have combined to catch a lot of games and get a lot of catcher-AB. I'd guess that even if Schwarber does become the primary guy in future, that he might like Montero get a lot of days off. If some future Contreras was to basically pick up the equivalent of all the Ross-Schwarber starts from this year, that might not be "starter", but that would be a very significant player over the course of a season or 6 club-controlled years. We'll see.

 

At Zagunis, agree that a good-OBP 4th OFer would have value. Fowler has played a significant role as leadoff guy; if he goes, not sure what happens next or who's leadoff. In time perhaps Almora will be an outstanding fielder and a capable hitter, but he may profile more as a #9 or #7 hitter in Maddon's usage. If Zagunis turned out favorably, he might be a nice leadoff guy on days when he started? Again, we'll see.

 

Obviously these aren't in the Russell/Baez/Braynt/Soler/Schwarber class of future-starters-who-could-become-stars. But, you need support players, and Maddon uses the bench a lot.

[CubsWin]

.....Not a believer in Contreras yet. Not sure about his defense at C, and the bat isn't *that* good. They're all trade bait for me anyway - not a future Cubs starter in this lot.

 

Just to follow up on CubsWin's post. Montero is old for a catcher, his years are numbered. Whether or not Schwarber is going to be a high-usage catcher is very much uncertain. His defense may be too poor; his hitting might be so good they don't want to wear him out there; the may be so World-Series-Nowacrat that they don't want to invest big-league development time on him as a catcher?

 

So, I think there's a very clearly open path for Contreras to become a Cubs "starter". Whether that's a "share-time" catcher with Schwarber, who knows. Maybe Contreras plays a lot, Schwarber plays some and plays a lot of OF. Or, maybe Schwarber plays a lot at catcher and Contreras a little.

Not only that, but Contreras and Schwarber complement each other well. Assuming they both continue to improve their pitch framing and game calling and their development in general, Schwarber brings the big power bat from the left-side of the plate with lesser defensive skills while Contreras brings a less powerful, still talented bat with greater defensive skills from the right side.

 

Most teams have a starting catcher with a decent bat and good receiving skills and then a defensive specialist with a light bat as the back up. I don't think I can remember any major league team who had two starting caliber catchers, with good bats that complemented each other so well. If all goes well, the Cubs could have that type of combo, and they could be together for several years as they are just 10 months apart in age and will be under team control for a long time.

 

It's a unique and exciting possibility. I don't know what the chances of that result happening are, but I do know that the Cubs developmental staff has been having a lot of success lately.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Still, Contreras making it on to what seems like a deep year in the Southern League is a nice sign. Sure, he had great offensive numbers, but BA always tries to mix in a balance of scouting and performance.........

 

Contreras was #11. Pretty good in a strong, deep league. To put the depth into context, Schwarber was only #4 on the list, despite posting a 1.000+ OPS there with .430 OBP and 16 HR in 75 games, and then hitting another 16 for the Cubs. If the league has 3 guys better than Schwarber, and only six guys between Schwarber and Contreras, that's pretty favorable for Contreras.

 

I also suspect that there's some "where did this come from and will it last" questions with Contreras. Fifth season in the states:

.333/.413/.891 (2015)

.242/.320/.679, (2014)

.248/.320/.742, (2013).

.273/.316/.673, (2012)

.261/.305/.652. (2011)

 

When a guy's been in the .240-.275 batting average range, and suddenly he hits .333, can you believe it will last?

When a guy's been in the .305-.320 OBP for four years, and suddenly flashes .413, can you believe it will last?

When a guy's been in the .650-.750 OPS window for four years, and suddenly he's .891, can you believe it will last?

 

This year's numbers are just so wildly out of line with his past history, I suspect there's some natural and very appropriate hesitation on the kid.

 

Didn't

Geovanny Soto

have the same kind of progression?