Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-25-15

[Guest]

For the year Edwards Jr. has struck out 1 in 3 hitters, has given up 9 XBHs total - 4% of all PAs against him, and 8 of those XBHs were doubles. The walks suck, but he's thrown strikes before and he's always been able to pile up Ks and keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I just feel like the walks are a phase, part of adjusting to shorter outings while knowing they will be shorter outings.

He was trending towards the walks last year, too.

 

I'm going back to 2010 at Fangraphs trying to find similar seasons to 30%K and 19%BB. What I'm finding is basically bad Marmol. The Marmol that got destroyed by relief pitcher standards at 3.98 and 5.19 FIP's. Chapman had a season with a 19% BB rate, but his whiff rate was five points higher at 34.3%. He was also relatively mediocre that year.

 

Destroyed may be too strong, but Carl's Junior is not anyone I'd want to give high leverage innings at this point. I'd be very worried that 19% would balloon even higher against MLB hitters. If that BABIP normalized also, he'd give up a lot of runs.

[Guest]

For the year Edwards Jr. has struck out 1 in 3 hitters, has given up 9 XBHs total - 4% of all PAs against him, and 8 of those XBHs were doubles. The walks suck, but he's thrown strikes before and he's always been able to pile up Ks and keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I just feel like the walks are a phase, part of adjusting to shorter outings while knowing they will be shorter outings.

He was trending towards the walks last year, too.

I'm going back to 2010 at Fangraphs trying to find similar seasons to 30%K and 19%BB. What I'm finding is basically bad Marmol. The Marmol that got destroyed by relief pitcher standards at 3.98 and 5.19 FIP's. Chapman had a season with a 19% BB rate, but his whiff rate was five points higher at 34.3%. He was also relatively mediocre that year.

 

Destroyed may be too strong, but Carl's Junior is not anyone I'd want to give high leverage innings at this point. I'd be very worried that 19% would balloon even higher against MLB hitters. If that BABIP normalized also, he'd give up a lot of runs.

 

That's not his full season THO. What about 33% K's or 15% K-BB?

That's true. It may be SSS that's making those numbers look worse at Iowa. However, you also have to recognize that it's getting worse as he's getting closer to MLB. There's a good chance it gets even worse when he gets there.

[craig]

hmm...top of my head list:

 

1. Gleyber
   
2. McKinney
   
3. Eloy
   
4. Happ
   
5. Contreras
   
6. Almora
   
7. Edwards
   
8. Zagunis
   
9. Pierce Johnson

 

Others under consideration (not in order):

 

Tseng

Underwood

Cease

Sands

Steele

Vogelbach

Candelario

 

Good list, Tim. For me way different layout than in past. Was a pretty clear differentiation last year, between the top group and then McKinney/Almora type plateau. Here I see some break around 12.

 

I'd keep your first 13 names, but have a big break between the plateau that then includes limited long-shots like Vogelbach and Candelario. I'd maybe put Sands, who's mostly struggled a lot this year, showing neither high-level command nor notably good pure stuff, and Steele, outside of the top 13.

 

Top 12:

Players: Torres, Contreras, Jiminez, Almora, McKinney, Zagunis, Happ

Pitchers: Edwards, Tseng, Johnson, Cease, Underwood

[craig]

The list has limited star-power. Eloy, and perhaps Cease, are the only guys who'd seem to have exceptional talents. And with Cease, the injury history and the wildness make that pretty low-probability.

 

I think Happ perhaps tends to be overrated based on draft position. He K's like crazy already in low-A, I think his odds of becoming a useful major-leaguer are pretty shaky. Somebody has to go in the top-5, but I have a hard time being very confident about a guy who has so much contact trouble already in low-A. 30K/100AB.

 

Edwards is very wild, and after being wild last year as well there's no reason to think it's a fluke. But, it's a thin line between being uselessly wild and wild but still effective. The Edwards/Marmol comp is good. I tend to remember the hopelessly uselessly wild Marmol of the end; but he had four years (2007-2010) where he was very useful, at times really good, despite being wild. If Edwards could be like the 2007-2010 Marmol, or perhaps modestly less wild than that, you've got a pretty valuable guy. Very iffy, though.

[sneakypower]

hmm...top of my head list:

 

1. Gleyber
   
2. McKinney
   
3. Eloy
   
4. Happ
   
5. Contreras
   
6. Almora
   
7. Edwards
   
8. Zagunis
   
9. Pierce Johnson

this is almost exactly right

[Guest]

AAA hitters have a .141/.309/.192 line against Edwards, I bet he'd fare just above 'destroyed' in an MLB bullpen role.

If he walked 19% of the hitters he faced...yeah, he'd get destroyed. He's *only* striking out 29.6% of the batters he's facing, so a good portion of that AAA line is based on luck.

 

In nearly 300 pro innings Edwards has given up 3 home runs and has a 5.1 H/9, his lack of hittability is a proven feature.

[rawaction]

1. Torres

2. McKinney

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Underwood

5. Contreras

6. Happ

7. P Johnson

8. Almora

9. Edwards

10. Zagunis

 

Cease, Sands, Vogelbach, Tseng, and Candelario are the next 5 and a couple may move up when I take a look again after the season.

 

Yeah, Underwood. Don't try to convince me he's not that good.

[DilusionalFan]

I see Torres ranked by most of these lists as # 1 or close if not. But I've also read a few comments that do not list him as star potential? Are his tools all good but none great. I have followed here for a long time and thought if nothing else his D was special and if he could hit at all he would be a star type player? Just trying to get an idea of what we actually have in Torres.

[Cubswin11]

I see Torres ranked by most of these lists as # 1 or close if not. But I've also read a few comments that do not list him as star potential? Are his tools all good but none great. I have followed here for a long time and thought if nothing else his D was special and if he could hit at all he would be a star type player? Just trying to get an idea of what we actually have in Torres.

I think the thing with Torres is he doesn't have any huge/stand out tools, he's just solid across the board. IIRC from seeing past things on him. Then again he's only 18 so he obviously has room to grow.

[DilusionalFan]

I see Torres ranked by most of these lists as # 1 or close if not. But I've also read a few comments that do not list him as star potential? Are his tools all good but none great. I have followed here for a long time and thought if nothing else his D was special and if he could hit at all he would be a star type player? Just trying to get an idea of what we actually have in Torres.

I think the thing with Torres is he doesn't have any huge/stand out tools, he's just solid across the board. IIRC from seeing past things on him. Then again he's only 18 so he obviously has room to grow.

 

Thanks! Hopefully those tools develop more over time.

[Guest]

I'm probably a bit bearish on Torres relative to the consensus. I think he's a good player and prospect but he's the type that prospect analysts tend to overrate too. All it takes is for him being more of a 2B than SS or better pitching knocking the bat out of his hand more for him to be not very useful.

 

That said, I'm not sure I have a compelling case for anyone else to be #1. Maybe McKinney if he hadn't slumped pretty hard through the middle of the season, probably Happ if he had struck out a touch less and/or made it to Myrtle Beach.

 

Without putting a ton of thought into it:

 

Torres

McKinney

Happ

Jimenez

Edwards

Contreras

Underwood

Almora

Johnson

Zagunis

 

Honorable mention to Tseng, Cease, Vogelbach

[craig]

Torres, everybody seems to like him, so I assume he's going to be good. I get the impression that defensively he's somewhat in the Russell mode. Doesn't seem to have an astonishing arm, or have incredible quickness, or be amazing or anything. But Russell seems to just be coordinated and do everything smoothly without unneeded effort. I get the sense that Torres may be of that highly-coordinate don't-make-anything-harder-than-it-is kind of guy defensively? But, nobody seems to scout him as amazing or gold-glovish as defensive SS or anything.

 

He's hitting .296 now, but his BABIP has slipped a little. He'd now down to .379 by my amateur calculation, which is still very, very high, unsustainably. If he had a more normal/solid .310 BABIP, he'd be hitting .243, and he'd probably not be ranked so strongly. 102K/443 AB, it's not like he's showing himself to be a remarkable contact guy or anything. 102K/3HR ratio, that's rather scary offensively.

 

But, he's 18 in full season, so who knows how much all of that stuff might improve with age.

 

Still, I see him as being a potential good player. Plays solid defense (although not incredible gold-glovish or anything) and hits reasonably well. (But not with star-like contact or star-like power.)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Bold prediction: At this point next year, Eloy Jimenez will be our top prospect and in the top 10 of all of baseball.

[Guest]

1. Gleyber Torres

2. Billy McKinney

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Willson Contreras

5. Ian Happ

6. Duane Underwood

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Carl Edwards Jr

9. Albert Almora

10. Mark Zagunis

 

Hard to keep Cease and Tseng off.

[Guest]

1. Gleyber Torres

2. Billy McKinney

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Willson Contreras

5. Ian Happ

6. Duane Underwood

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Carl Edwards Jr

9. Albert Almora

10. Mark Zagunis

 

Hard to keep Cease and Tseng off.

 

i'm too sold on almora turning the corner to put him behind those pitchers.

[sontensei]

I'm probably a bit bearish on Torres relative to the consensus. I think he's a good player and prospect but he's the type that prospect analysts tend to overrate too. All it takes is for him being more of a 2B than SS or better pitching knocking the bat out of his hand more for him to be not very useful.

 

Couldn't agree with this more and where I was going when explaining the Torres and Happ (I like that a bunch of people put Jimenez top 3, which if I was a more honest person is where I'd have had him too) rankings on my list. I'm sure we all did the same mental gymnastics in our head for Torres - 18, MIF, and hit some in the lowest full season league, can't really knock that general profile!

 

Everytime I try to rank prospects:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xuse806if2g

 

With all the young middle infield depth the cubs have I wouldn't be opposed to Torres being included in a package for a good upgrade on the MLB roster for '16

[sontensei]

quotes got messed up on my phone Edited August 27, 2015 by sontensei

[sontensei]

Yay for Javy he keeps hitting! Edited August 27, 2015 by sontensei

[Aaron_Kennelly]

1. Gleyber Torres

2. Billy McKinney

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Willson Contreras

5. Ian Happ

6. Duane Underwood

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Carl Edwards Jr

9. Albert Almora

10. Mark Zagunis

 

Hard to keep Cease and Tseng off.

 

i'm too sold on almora turning the corner to put him behind those pitchers.

 

Yep. I have him above Happ, too. And I've always been down on Almora until like a month ago. He's basically doubled his career walk rate at AA, and his walk rate was the reason I've always hated him.

[craig]

1. Gleyber Torres

2. Billy McKinney

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Willson Contreras

5. Ian Happ

6. Duane Underwood

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Carl Edwards Jr

9. Albert Almora

10. Mark Zagunis

 

Hard to keep Cease and Tseng off.

 

1. Eloy Jimenez

2. Gleyber Torres

3. Albert Almora

4. Willson Contreras

5. Billy McKinney

6. Carl Edwards Jr

7. Tseng

8. Ian Happ

9. Pierce Johnson

10. Cease

11. Duane Underwood

12. Mark Zagunis

13. DeLaRosa

 

Heh heh, I put Jiminez 1st, since guys with massive power who don't K all the time and who have reasonable plate patience/discipline have a chance to be great offensive values. Torres has a chance, a good-fielding SS who might hit .250-.260 with 8 HR's would be a good player. But I'm choosing to go with the middle-of-the-lineup power guy who doesn't K as much over the middle-of-the-diamond defense guy who K's more.

 

After Jiminez, Cease is the only other guy I see with potential star-power.

 

Almora doesn't have star-power offensively. But I'm believing that the recent hitting is not a fluke. He's learned to use left field as well as center and right. His plate discipline and walks are fine. Not a lot of power, but not that bad. I assume his low BABIP is because he's a slow RH guy who hits a lot of weak contact. But, I'm also wondering if perhaps the terrible BABIP he was carrying for months isn't sustainable, and that a 44K/28BB/6HR guy really ought to be pretty competitive. He'll still be 21 when his PCL season starts next year, so there's time to boost the power a bit, especially now that he pulls the ball sometimes. I'm certainly influenced by the Cubs situation. Center field is not blocked long term, and outfield defense is terrible. So I think a really good defensive CFer would be a natural fit. (I think with so many high-K guys, they might appreciate a low-K guy to add some balance to the lineup, also.) Right now Almora is a .720-OPS guy, despite some low/bad/perhaps-unlucky BABIP numbers, having started the year at age 20. So, I'm optimistic that there's a fair chance that he'll be able to improve enough over the next several years so that he might be able to support analogous type .720 OPS as a major-league good-fielding CFer. Would a good-defense .720-OPS CFer be a star? No, of course not. But if the Cubs had a .720-OPS good-fielding cost-controlled cheap CFer batting 7th or 9th, I think that would be a rather good value. And given his youth and natural contact skills, I think withstanding promotion without getting killed might be more achievable. (For a guy who's highly K-vulnerable, I think promotion is more problematic than a guy without K-problems.) And I think it's easy to envision upside where he might become more than a .720-OPS guy, too. A .750-OPS CFer with good defense and low salary? Very valuable asset!

 

McKinney and Almora are both 21. Almora is .720 OPS, McKinney .766 OPS (Tennessee). HR's it's 6 vs 7 (on season.) McKinney seems more likely to hit more HR and be a clear value hitter. Plus LF. But for today, I'm going with the good-defense CFer ahead of the shaky-defense LF/RF guy. McKinney could easily flip that, if some power emerges, and if he can establish that his defense is actually just fine.

 

I feel like I should have Zagunis higher.

 

Edwards is wild, but the guys stuff is obviously 1st-rate, and anti-HR means a lot. So in the K/HR/BB trio, he's great-great-awful. Hopeful they can touch him up enough to make it work.

 

I like Tseng. Control can get a guy a long way. Perhaps says something when a guy has a 3.38 FIP at age 20, and we're all disappointed. life with Dan Haren is a reminder that "back-of-rotation" starter might not seem that valuable.... until you don't have one. Tseng and Johnson might not have a lot of star-power, but having some guys who might be solid decent 3/4 starters can help you win a lot of games with a great offense and a strong bullpen.

 

Cease obviously has some possibilities of knockout stuff. Some star-power potential there.

 

Recent reports on DeLaRosa also make me think he perhaps belongs in the pool. Chance to be a good solid starter.