2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

[craig]

Rose signed.

Dewees is reported to have been straight slot deal.

 

Rose said he'll play 3rd and that his pitching days are done.

[ScrubMD]

I think Rose is going to be a pleasant surprise.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I think Rose is going to be a pleasant surprise.

I hear he is going to have an amazing year and then spend the rest of his career battling injuries.

[davell]

He has a penchant for not remembering how many outs there are.

[Guest]

Did not expect Dewees to get that much over slot:

 

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[davell]

Wow, was NOT expecting that. Hell, there was even a newspaper report saying 1.2.....

[Guest]

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[craig]

I've not been following the CWS. Morrison and Peitzmeir's teams have only been eliminated within the last week or so, correct? So, I'm sure nothing happening with wilson and Hudson signings until Morrison and Peitzmeier's contracts get finalized, including all physicals and everything. I don't doubt that Hudson and Wilson have their deals all wrapped up, conditional on Morrison and Peitzmeier. But obviously you can't sign an overslot until you're sure you've got the money in hand, and until Morrision and Peitzmeier are official, you can't be sure you've got everything you expect to have.

 

Heh heh, I've sometimes wondered how the "passing physical" process works. I'm sure the GM could override a doctor's "failed physical" report. But imagine that Wilson and Hudson have agreements, and their deals are simply waiting for Morrison/Peitzmeier $$$. What if a very academic guy like Morrison failed his physical, and realized that his health wouldn't permit a worthwhile pro career, so decided to bag it? The Cubs would be stuck without his money. Or, what if the Cubs doctor failed Peitzmeier, but McLeod needed the money. I'm sure McLeod could override the doctor's failed physical and sign the guy anyway, just to free the money, even without any expectation that the guy would ever pitch a pro inning.

[toonsterwu]

Well, Dewees going overslot ... makes some sense I guess. He did have 2 more years of eligibility, so there was some leverage, and the general scouting consensus seemed high on him. The expectation of slot/under-slot had more to do with his age.

 

Wonder what Twomey got. Looking at the numbers now, can't believe he got anything significant.

[craig]

gotta figure Twomey just wanted to sign and get started.

 

Surprising with Dewees. I wouldn't have guessed. Explains why it took so long for him to sign, I'd wondered why a presumed slot-signing would take so long.

 

Obviously what's surprising or not surprising to me is based on expectations. And what the Cubs actually do is based on their scouting evals, wise or unwise as they may be. When Dewees gets a significant overslot, and when the Cubs pick Wilson where they did with the expectation of a large overslot, I guess it suggests that the Cubs scouted them much more favorably than we might have assumed based on BA types. We'll see whether the Cubs scouting makes any sense, down the road. (I wish we'd stuck with the consensus valuation on Hannemann....)

[CubsWin]

I've not been following the CWS. Morrison and Peitzmeir's teams have only been eliminated within the last week or so, correct? So, I'm sure nothing happening with wilson and Hudson signings until Morrison and Peitzmeier's contracts get finalized, including all physicals and everything. I don't doubt that Hudson and Wilson have their deals all wrapped up, conditional on Morrison and Peitzmeier. But obviously you can't sign an overslot until you're sure you've got the money in hand, and until Morrision and Peitzmeier are official, you can't be sure you've got everything you expect to have.

 

Heh heh, I've sometimes wondered how the "passing physical" process works. I'm sure the GM could override a doctor's "failed physical" report. But imagine that Wilson and Hudson have agreements, and their deals are simply waiting for Morrison/Peitzmeier $$$. What if a very academic guy like Morrison failed his physical, and realized that his health wouldn't permit a worthwhile pro career, so decided to bag it? The Cubs would be stuck without his money. Or, what if the Cubs doctor failed Peitzmeier, but McLeod needed the money. I'm sure McLeod could override the doctor's failed physical and sign the guy anyway, just to free the money, even without any expectation that the guy would ever pitch a pro inning.

Peitzmeier just signed for $5000. That's another $156,800 into the kitty. Cubs now with $689,100 in under slot savings and another $361,805 in overage for a total of $1,050,905 to spend with Morrison's savings still to come.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 5m5 minutes ago

4th-rder D.J. Wilson's bonus w/@Cubs = $1.3 million (slot 113 = $503,100). Ohio HS CF, 5-ft-8 speedster, Vanderbilt commit. @MLBDraft

[Guest]

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[davell]

Callis mentioned they could get to 1.1 on Hudson after this.

[toonsterwu]

Going to be curious on assignments for the OF in the near future for the Happ/Dewees/Wilson, assuming Happ stays in the OF after this fall. Here's hoping they are right on Wilson - that seems like an awful lot to buy out his commitment.

[Guest]

Going to be curious on assignments for the OF in the near future for the Happ/Dewees/Wilson, assuming Happ stays in the OF after this fall. Here's hoping they are right on Wilson - that seems like an awful lot to buy out his commitment.

I read that they plan on giving Happ a chance at second this offseason.

[craig]

Callis mentioned they could get to 1.1 on Hudson after this.

 

Yeah, that's what I've got too. If morrison signs for $5K, typical, then the Cubs should have $1,154,205 left for Hudson.

 

Don't know why Callis would think that's a reach. Cubs talk to all these guys in advance. I assume that's what they had for his bill.

*If that wasn't close, they'd not have picked him.

*If that wasn't close, they'd not have gone and picked Wilson at his list-price.

 

If it was close, but is a little short (for example Hudson was $1.2 or $1.3 as his cutoff, and now they don't quite have that....), then they'd have hard-balled a little harder on Happ, Dewees, and/or Wilson. (If they're going to end up $50-200K short on Hudson, they'd have fought harder and longer to free up that level of cash.)

 

Not worried at all about getting Hudson signed. But, everything in it's turn, and as we know from Houston's Aiken/Nix blunder, the Cubs can't sign Hudson until the Morrison deal is totally done, physicals passed, no going back.

[craig]

Morrison deal $30K.

 

I think that leaves $1,129,205 left with which to sign Hudson.

 

Cubs had $976K available prior to the morrison signing, the extra $152 available pushes past both the $1.0 and the $1.1 thresholds. Who knows exactly how a family comes up with a price tag.

*Million is a round number threshold, so I'd guess there are a lot of families who say $1.0 is their price tag; maybe that was Hudson and now they'll have an extra $129K to save or overslot?

*Or maybe Hudson was $1.1; "over a million dollars" felt more aggressive and sophisticated than just flat 1.0?

*Perhaps they were using slot position to pick their price? $1,129,205 would fall in between the 11th and 12th slot values of round 2. So, perhaps family and advisor figured that they wanted to be top-half of the 2nd round? Expectation satisfied.

*Or, maybe they set "top 50" as their goal? The slot for pick 50 is $1.196, in which case the cubs are $63K short. Would a kid spike a $1.13 deal because it's $0.06 short? Doubtful.

[davell]

Hudson gets 1.1, leaving us with 29k to spare. So I'd say we've wrapped up the draft signings.

[Bruno7481]

Posted this in another thread, but 14th rounder Jake Kelzer out of Indiana is returning to school.

[ddwyer]

Did we ever get a complete list of draft picks that signed?