2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1.9 (Pool Amount: $3,351,000): Ian Happ, OF/2B, Cincinnati - BA rank: 24, FanGraphs rank: 10, MLB.com: 20 - $3.0 million

From the day he stepped on campus, Happ has been the best hitter in the Bearcats' lineup and he's been one of the best players in the Cape Cod League each of the past two summers. But this year, Happ has had to carry the Bearcats lineup'there have been days when he's the only player in the lineup who isn't a freshman. Happ has played right field and center field primarily this season, but he's played second base on occasion, played third base in the past and has even played shortstop briefly. His eventual landing spot defensively will cause a lot of debate in draft meetings. Teams that believe that Happ can develop as an offensive second baseman will likely value him higher than teams who are convinced he'll stay in the outfield. At second base, Happ is not particularly fluid, and he'd need to put in the work as a pro to stick in the dirt. As an outfielder, Happ likely will end up in left field because of his fringe-average arm. Most scouts believe he lacks the range to handle center field as a pro. At the plate, Happ has fewer questions. A switch-hitter, he shows excellent bat speed from both batters' boxes. He projects as a plus hitter with average power, and he's an above-average runner, though he needs refinement on the bases.

2.47 (Pool Amount: $1,292,100): Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida - BA rank: 66, FanGraphs rank: 47, MLB.com: 35

Dewees was a three-sport star at Crystal River (Fla.) High and earned all-district honors in football and soccer. He was somewhat unheralded in baseball but has done nothing but hit since arriving at North Florida. After an all-conference freshman year, a wrist injury sidelined him for most of the next season and he took a medical redshirt. He returned in time to play in the Cape Cod League, where he was named to the all-star team. He has taken his performance to another level this spring and entered the final weekend of the regular season on a 29-game hitting streak and batting .438/.498/.763 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He led the country with 96 hits, ranked second in slugging and third in hitting. While North Florida's home ballpark is known for being hitter-friendly, Dewees has established solid credentials as a hitter. He has a compact swing, good bat-to-ball skills and a feel for the barrel. He doesn't project as a power hitter in the professional ranks, but he can drive the ball to all fields and is a plus runner. He tracks down balls well in the outfield, but he has well-below average arm strength. That may mean he will move to left field at the next level, which would put more pressure on his bat. Because Dewees played in just 12 games last year, he has two years of eligibility remaining. He'll turn 22 in September, however, and will likely get drafted high enough to buy out his last two years of eligibility.

3.82 (Pool Amount: $731,000):

4.113 (Pool Amount: $503,100):

5.143 (Pool Amount: $376,700):

6.173 (Pool Amount: $281,900):

7.203 (Pool Amount: $211,300):

8.233 (Pool Amount: $174,200):

9.263 (Pool Amount: $162,800):

10.293 (Pool Amount: $152,000):

[Guest]

BA:

 

From the day he stepped on campus, Happ has been the best hitter in the Bearcats' lineup and he's been one of the best players in the Cape Cod League each of the past two summers. But this year, Happ has had to carry the Bearcats lineup'there have been days when he's the only player in the lineup who isn't a freshman. Happ has played right field and center field primarily this season, but he's played second base on occasion, played third base in the past and has even played shortstop briefly. His eventual landing spot defensively will cause a lot of debate in draft meetings. Teams that believe that Happ can develop as an offensive second baseman will likely value him higher than teams who are convinced he'll stay in the outfield. At second base, Happ is not particularly fluid, and he'd need to put in the work as a pro to stick in the dirt. As an outfielder, Happ likely will end up in left field because of his fringe-average arm. Most scouts believe he lacks the range to handle center field as a pro. At the plate, Happ has fewer questions. A switch-hitter, he shows excellent bat speed from both batters' boxes. He projects as a plus hitter with average power, and he's an above-average runner, though he needs refinement on the bases.

[Guest]

BP (h/t Truffle Shuffle):

 

9. Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ, OF, Louisville

There are some guys who just get hitting. Ian Happ is one of those guys. The switch-hitting outfielder was the best pure hitter for me in the draft, and is a great pick for the Cubs (yes, I know, you wanted a pitcher). His swing is excellent from both sides of the plate, and there's sneaky pop from the left-side as well, with enough strength to drive into the gaps from the right. The question is whether he'll play second base or the outfield, but wherever he plays, he's going to hit. Another great pick from Theo Epstein and company.

[Guest]

Keith Law (h/t Cubswin11):

 

Happ has one of the best swings in this year's class -- particularly from the left side -- and with his feel for hitting and balance, it's not out of the question that he has the best present hit tool of any player in this class.

 

In addition to the plus hit tool, Happ also has some surprising pop -- again, particularly as a left-handed hitter -- and when he rotates his hips on time, he's capable of driving balls out to the pull side and putting the ball into the gaps of the opposite field.

 

There aren't many offensive questions about Happ -- really the only one being some extra swing-and-miss from the right side -- but where he's going to end up defensively is very much in doubt. He played second base and left field for the Bearcats, more of the latter this year as he recovered from hernia surgery. Without having seen him play much at second base this year, most teams think Happ ends up at an outfield position; left field is the most likely landing sport, as his arm strength is merely average.

 

Happ has hit everywhere he has been, and he has done so with power and a great approach. If he can stay at second base, he's a future above-average regular. If he must move to left field, he's more likely to be merely an average everyday player.

[Guest]

Michael Baumann, Grantland:

 

Second: Happ, a near-mirror-image switch-hitter who could play second base at the next level. I talk about the second base archetype a lot: college guys who are usually (though not always) about 6-foot, 200 pounds, with good but not exceptional athleticism, who play an infield spot, get on base, hit for a little power, and steal bases at a high rate of success. Chase Utley’s an elite example of this, with Cody Asche a poor man’s version, and Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Jason Kipnis, and a few others are in between — they’re players of the same species, if not the same quality. Happ is a guy like that. (So is Bregman, but I don’t have to convince anyone about him.) Happ is a legitimate switch-hitter, which is rarer than you might think, and he doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game. He also talks about hitting more intelligently than any college position player I spoke to this year, and in February, I saw him misread a pitch, adjust mid-swing, and hit it out anyway. He’s going to go in the late teens, and if a team is at all convinced that he can play second base in the majors, he should go 10 spots higher; a similar player, Michael Conforto, went no. 10 overall in a better draft last year.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://31.media.tumblr.com/ac4c55bb58733e8227680ed323f039ad/tumblr_mvxa5d5bDM1rnq0vfo1_500.gif

[Guest]

Michael Baumann on Happ, this time for D1Baseball.com: http://www.d1baseball.com/features/golden-spikes-spotlight-ian-happ/

[RammyFanny]

For kicks and giggles:

 

Happ: .369/.492/.672 -14 HR - 49:49 BB/K

 

Schwarber: .358/.464/.659 - 14 HR - 44:30 BB/K

[ctcf]

Haha welp I'm sold!

[Guest]

CUBS FINISH FIRST NIGHT OF 2015 FIRST-YEAR PLAYER DRAFT, CHICAGO SELECTS OUTFIELDER DONNIE DEWEES WITH SECOND ROUND SELECTION

 

CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs tonight made two selections in the opening rounds of the 2015 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, including outfielder Ian Happ out of the University of Cincinnati with the ninth overall pick. In the second round (47th overall), the Cubs selected outfielder Donnie Dewees out of the University of North Florida.

 

Happ was recommended by area scout Daniel Carte, and Dewees was recommended by area scout Tom Clark. Happ, 20, this season batted .369 (73-for-198) with 47 runs scored, 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 44 RBI for the Bearcats. He walked 49 times to contribute to a .492 on-base percentage, and his .672 slugging mark gave him a 1.164 OPS. Happ led the American Athletic Conference (AAC) in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and tied for the lead in walks. Additionally, he led his team in runs, hits, doubles, home runs and RBI.

 

Named a semi-finalist for the 2015 USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award, the switch-hitting Happ was recognized as the 2015 AAC Player of the Year, named First Team Academic All-American, Second Team Louisville Slugger All-American and was a unanimous first team All-Conference member as voted on by the league’s head coaches.

 

The six-foot, 205-pound Happ has batted .338 (194-for-574) with 120 runs, 44 doubles, two triples, 25 home runs and 107 RBI in three seasons at Cincinnati. He has drawn more walks (128) than strikeouts (116), contributing to a .463 on-base percentage, and along with his .552 slugging mark has recorded a 1.015 OPS through his junior season. His walks and on-base percentage both rank third-most in school history while his 56 stolen bases are fifth. Happ has seen time in both right field and center field, as well as second base, third base and shortstop.

 

Dewees, 21, was named a semi-finalist for the 2015 USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award and was named the 2015 Atlantic Sun Conference Player of the Year. The redshirt sophomore batted .422 (106-for-251) with 88 runs, 12 doubles, eight triples, 18 home runs and 68 RBI in 60 games for North Florida this season. Thanks to 30 walks compared to 16 strikeouts, the left-handed hitter recorded a .483 on-base percentage and a .749 slugging percentage, good for a 1.232 OPS. He led the nation in hits (106), runs, slugging percentage and total bases (188).

 

Earlier in 2015, Dewees held the nation’s longest hitting streak of 31 games, and he recorded two hit streaks of 16 games or more this season, helping the Ospreys to their first Atlantic Sun regular season championship. Dewees in 2014 hit .340 (51-for-150) with 31 runs, nine doubles, one triple, three homers, 20 RBI and 20 walks for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in the Cape Cod League. In 2013 with North Florida, the five-foot, 11-inch, 180-pounder was named a Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American. A native of Crystal River, Fla., Dewees graduated from Crystal River High School.

 

The 2015 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft continues tomorrow with rounds three-through-10 at 12 p.m. CT and concludes Wednesday with rounds 11-through-40.

[Guest]

BA ranked Dewees their 66th overall prospect:

 

Dewees was a three-sport star at Crystal River (Fla.) High and earned all-district honors in football and soccer. He was somewhat unheralded in baseball but has done nothing but hit since arriving at North Florida. After an all-conference freshman year, a wrist injury sidelined him for most of the next season and he took a medical redshirt. He returned in time to play in the Cape Cod League, where he was named to the all-star team. He has taken his performance to another level this spring and entered the final weekend of the regular season on a 29-game hitting streak and batting .438/.498/.763 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He led the country with 96 hits, ranked second in slugging and third in hitting. While North Florida's home ballpark is known for being hitter-friendly, Dewees has established solid credentials as a hitter. He has a compact swing, good bat-to-ball skills and a feel for the barrel. He doesn't project as a power hitter in the professional ranks, but he can drive the ball to all fields and is a plus runner. He tracks down balls well in the outfield, but he has well-below average arm strength. That may mean he will move to left field at the next level, which would put more pressure on his bat. Because Dewees played in just 12 games last year, he has two years of eligibility remaining. He'll turn 22 in September, however, and will likely get drafted high enough to buy out his last two years of eligibility.

[Guest]

MLB.com

 

Happ = #20:

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

 

An unheralded recruit from a Pittsburgh-area high school, Happ almost certainly will become the highest-drafted player in Cincinnati history. The Bearcats never have had a player taken in the top two rounds, not even when big leaguers Kevin Youkilis, Josh Harrison and Tony Campana came through the program in the 2000s.

 

Happ ranked as the top position prospect in the prestigious Cape Cod League in each of his two summers in college. A switch-hitter who's better from the left side of the plate, he has good balance and controls the strike zone well. Add in some deceptive strength, and he should hit for average and power.

 

Happ played mostly second base in 2013 and does have solid speed and arm strength, so a pro team could try him in the infield. But he lacks smooth infield actions, hasn't played regularly on the dirt since his freshman year and fits best on an outfield corner.

 

Dewees = #35:

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50

 

Unheralded coming out of high school, Dewees has made a name for himself in college. After an impressive freshman year, his sophomore season was all but wiped out by a broken wrist. He got back in time to play in the Cape Cod League and played well in his return to the North Florida lineup this spring.

 

While he doesn't face elite pitching in the Atlantic Sun Conference, Dewees has built a strong track record of production everywhere he's gone. His compact swing, feel for the barrel and advanced approach at the plate are the keys to his offensive success. He has some raw power to tap into, but his swing is more geared toward hitting line drives. He is an above-average runner and covers ground well in the outfield, though he has a below-average arm.

 

Due to his injury, Dewees has two years of eligibility remaining. But he'll turn 22 in September, making him one of the older players in his class.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Truckload of pitchers today?

[TheDude]

Love both picks but I'm partial to strong hit tools with advanced plate discipline.

[Banedon]

Truckload of pitchers today?

 

No pitchers. Ever.

 

#Dongs

[RynoRules]

We sign and trade for our pitchers here, kids.

 

[RammyFanny]

I keep hearing that the Cubs were surprised with how fast Happ timed at their private workout. Makes me wonder if they try to go the CF route with him, which would be really intriguing.

[toonsterwu]

I gotta think Happ starts at 2nd. You don't draft a 2nd college guy, an older college guy, like Dewees, with his skillset, and plan on playing him in LF to start, and Dewees and Happ should be, at the start, on a relatively similar timeline. It may work out that Happ gets tried at CF, but at the start, I gotta think he's at 2nd, and then maybe 3rd or LF.

 

As for today, I'd be surprised if we didn't take at least 3-5 arms, and probably 1-3 upside prep arms. It's a bit dependent on information we can't be certain of (namely, what some of these prep kids will sign for and how much savings we get on Happ/Dewees), as well as what type of cheap senior signs are available.

[jersey cubs fan]

I gotta think Happ starts at 2nd. You don't draft a 2nd college guy, an older college guy, like Dewees, with his skillset, and plan on playing him in LF to start, and Dewees and Happ should be, at the start, on a relatively similar timeline. It may work out that Happ gets tried at CF, but at the start, I gotta think he's at 2nd, and then maybe 3rd or LF.

 

I don't really understand this idea. OF is a 3 position area with 5 guys regularly on the roster. Positional need should not influence your picks.

[RammyFanny]

He's just responding to my Happ in CF idea, saying that Dewees will probably start in CF and they will both be at the same level for awhile. Don't think he's implying anything about it influencing picks.

[Guest]

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[toonsterwu]

He's just responding to my Happ in CF idea, saying that Dewees will probably start in CF and they will both be at the same level for awhile. Don't think he's implying anything about it influencing picks.

 

Yea, that's all I was responding to. Both guys should be on a similar timeline to start, in all likelihood, to start, and if Happ can play 2nd, he'll be far more intriguing, while Dewees skillset likely starts him off in CF.

 

Now, I guess it's not impossible that they could push Happ or Dewees to SB, start the other in Eugene, and have both play CF. I don't know if I love that idea, though. I tend to think Happ should just be given the "go out, have some fun, swing away, and we'll worry more about your defense at instructs" route (sort of feels like this was what they did with Zagunis last year ... ).

[toonsterwu]

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I really hope that Dewees can play CF up the ladder. The idea of him in LF is very unappetizing. He's not going to RF on a 35 arm, that's for sure.

[RynoRules]

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I really hope that Dewees can play CF up the ladder. The idea of him in LF is very unappetizing. He's not going to RF on a 35 arm, that's for sure.

 

Has anyone ever developed a stronger OF arm through working on form? Mind you I'm not talking about going from 35 to 60; just maybe 35 to 40.

[Cubswin11]

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I really hope that Dewees can play CF up the ladder. The idea of him in LF is very unappetizing. He's not going to RF on a 35 arm, that's for sure.

 

Has anyone ever developed a stronger OF arm through working on form? Mind you I'm not talking about going from 35 to 60; just maybe 35 to 40.

Probably? Especially if they can find something mechanically I would imagine it isn't impossible to have a guy go from say a Juan Pierre (downright bad) arm to a Dexter Fowler arm (a little below average).