jon lester pickoff yips thread

[Sammy Sofa]

Kyle's curve is like the Bell Curve for baseball.

[Gilby]

The hopeful Cub fan side of me still says Lester will age more gracefully than Scherzer and handle a decline in stuff better. Scherzer gives up so many fly balls and so few homers. That won't last as he gets older and loses a little velo.

 

Not saying I wouldn't rather have Scherzer right now, but that's how I'll rationalize it. Plus, maybe Donnie Dewees will be awesome!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i wouldn't have a problem with this being so utterly wrong if it wasn't stated so confidently as if it originated from a legitimate authority on the subject

 

*shrug* believe what you want. Historically, pitchers don't show the same steady rise through their first few years in the big leagues that hitters do, and while there is a decline phase for those who make it that far, many don't last long enough for it to come up.

 

So while there is still a bit of a curve to it, the pitching aging "curve" is much flatter.

 

Meanwhile, pitchers tend to show sudden leaps and declines in performance more often than hitters. The leaps are usually correlated with an overnight improvement in command, the declines with arm attrition.

 

Our whole organizational philosophy is based around these ideas.

[seanimal]

what i believe is that you're just making this up as you go. if the age curve is flatter, why don't we see the volatility you describe in older pitchers, say age 30+?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

D/p Edited June 27, 2015 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

what i believe is that you're just making this up as you go. if the age curve is flatter, why don't we see the volatility you describe in older pitchers, say age 30+?

 

I honestly don't care in the slightest what you believe, and it is not my job to alleviate your ignorance.

[Sammy Sofa]

He hasn't read anything to explain it for him.

[seanimal]

hey hey no need to get emotional. after all, it's not like i'm asking you to cite an article

 

's comments section you aped your unsupportable "insights" from

[Hairyducked Idiot]

:good: whatever you say champ

[Tracer Bullet]

Kyle's curve is like the Bell Curve for baseball.

I originally read that as Bell Jar

 

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[imb]

Kyle's curve is like the Bell Curve for baseball.

 

kyle's curve is all in his dick

[Sammy Sofa]

It's a really weird kind of scoliosis.

[ctcf]

Seriously though they should stop using Ross every time he starts.

[Geech]

what i believe is that you're just making this up as you go. if the age curve is flatter, why don't we see the volatility you describe in older pitchers, say age 30+?

 

I honestly don't care in the slightest what you believe, and it is not my job to alleviate your ignorance.

 

You guys should stop being so emotionally abusive to Kyle. Why are you all out to get him?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It is an evolutionary reaction to try to drive the curved penis from the herd.

[Guest]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/07/19/if-you-werent-paying-attention-jon-lesters-been-a-top-20-pitcher-this-year-and-other-bullets/

 

Lester’s numbers in his last 7 starts: 1.97 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 3.03 xFIP over 45.2 innings with 46 strikeouts and just 11 walks and 28 hits.

 

Lester’s 3.06 FIP is 21st best in baseball (just ahead of Michael Wacha) and his 3.11 xFIP is 15th best in baseball (just ahead of Carlos Martinez). By WAR (2.5), Lester has been the 19th most valuable starter in baseball this year.

[PackLandVA]

I've noticed his "pickoff yips" are less of a thing when he doesn't let anybody on base. Took him a while, but I'm glad he's adjusted.

[sneakypower]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/07/19/if-you-werent-paying-attention-jon-lesters-been-a-top-20-pitcher-this-year-and-other-bullets/

Lester’s 3.06 FIP is 21st best in baseball (just ahead of Michael Wacha) and his 3.11 xFIP is 15th best in baseball (just ahead of Carlos Martinez). By WAR (2.5), Lester has been the 19th most valuable starter in baseball this year.

barely top-100 if you care about actual runs given up

[seanimal]

what? he's 38th in runs allowed

[jersey cubs fan]

what? he's 38th in runs allowed

 

yeah, but barely

[sneakypower]

what? he's 38th in runs allowed

99th in bWAR / 62nd in RA9-WAR

[Guest]

that's because bWAR sucks

[sneakypower]

that's because bWAR sucks

did you see this on a bumper sticker?

 

it's irritatingly Pollyannaish (and typical Brett) to make the claim "Jon Lester's Been a Top-20 Pitcher This Year" willfully ignoring major components to the job of a pitcher, most of which he's been bad or terrible at

 

FIP is ignorant of these facts:

- Lester has been 32nd percentile amongst qualified starters in strand rate

- Lester has been 37th percentile amongst qualified starters in babip (41st percentile in hard-hit rate / 29th percentile in LD%)

- Lester has allowed the 2nd-most SB for pitchers

 

by the same stupid theoretical logic, Raisel Iglesias has been really swell/ginchy, too

[Guest]

just because FIP misses on some guys doesn't mean it's always wrong when there's a disparity between it and actual runs allowed. i mean that's the whole [expletive] point of defensive independent stats.

[sneakypower]

the point of defensive independent stats is to have better (E)RA prediction, but that matters not one iota for purposes of a conversation purely focused on describing past events

 

unless you're making some argument that there was highly anomalous defensive performance, i guess