Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-12-15

[sneakypower]

oh yeah, get him up here quick to expunge Coghlan's 1000+ OPS from the lineup

[XZero771679666304]

oh yeah, get him up here quick to expunge Coghlan's 1000+ OPS from the lineup

 

I am actually pretty confident about Coghlan's bat. I just wish there was a spot to put him where his glove wouldn't be a liability.

[Guest]

Yeah, Addison Russell hasn't had too many minor league PAs but I'm pretty sure his bat is ready for the big leagues.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm also OK with Bryant at 3b, Russell at 2b, Coghlan in LF, and Alcantara as the super-sub. La Stella can backup in the infield. Once in awhile if we have nothing better to do with the roster spot because there's a big run of injuries or whatever, we can call up Olt and let him pinch-hit against lefties. Edited April 13, 2015 by Hairyducked Idiot

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't see the point of rushing addison russell. he's 21 years old, is the third youngest player in the PCL and has a half season under his belt above A-ball. he should probably spend at least half this season in the minors.

 

The point would probably be that we're giving regular playing time to Chris Coghlan and Mike Olt.

 

olt's playing time is obviously going to decrease drastically within the next two weeks. coghlan is extremely likely to hit RHP better than addison russell at this stage of their careers, not to mention that one only has to look at profar or bogaerts (or closer to home, baez and alcantara) to know that sometimes top prospects really do not hit much in their first year in the majors.

[SouthSideRyan]

Well by all means let's keep him down because a lot of top prospects struggle early on and we have a perfectly capable mediocre DH in LF already.

[TruffleShuffle]

Well by all means let's keep him down because a lot of top prospects struggle early on and we have a perfectly capable mediocre DH in LF already.

 

is it your position that addison russell would outproduce a strict coghlan/denorfia platoon in LF, with szczur playing for denorfia occasionally and regularly acting as a late-inning defensive replacement for coghlan? because i sure doubt that he would outproduce that group, and that's not even taking into account the possible negative impact of rushing a blue-chip prospect to the major leagues after fewer than 300 plate appearances against advanced minor league pitching.

 

the potential benefit for this season would be quite marginal, certainly not to the point where i'd feel like it's necessary to bring up russell before the super two deadline. coghlan/denorfia/szczur should be pretty good in LF; there's no reason to act like it's a junior lake-esque black hole that's seriously damaging the team's short-term ability to win.

[TruffleShuffle]

dong videos:

 

russell - terrible pitch, pitcher missed his spot by a foot and a half and russell did what you're supposed to do to those mistakes: http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=71514483&sid=milb

bryant - opposite field line drive off a pretty good knee-high pitch. pitcher missed a little bit out over the plate, was trying to go down and in and left it over the middle of the plate. just crazy to regularly drive pitches like this 400 feet the other way: http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=71519983&sid=milb

[SouthSideRyan]

I could not give a single [expletive] about super 2 cutoffs. Are you seriously buying the "full season at a level" garbage Theo is trotting out to keep the MLBPA off his back?

[Guest]

I'm guessing Addison is up in May if:

 

1) second base is a smoldering pit of suck (or even just plain ol' bad)

2) the Cubs are winning anyway

3) Addison is hitting well in AAA

4) Javy isn't

 

Any one of those things not being true probably extends his stay in Iowa much longer.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

[TruffleShuffle]

I could not give a single [expletive] about super 2 cutoffs. Are you seriously buying the "full season at a level" garbage Theo is trotting out to keep the MLBPA off his back?

 

i don't believe the full season at a level, but addison russell hasn't even had a full season above A-ball. at least if he plays in iowa until june, then he will have had a full season of advanced minor league play. and it's stupid to not care about super 2 cutoffs, given that it could save many millions of dollars down the line, and it's especially stupid to not care being that russell may not even represent an upgrade for this season over what's presently on the roster.

 

also, considering that boras is his agent, he's very unlikely to sign a team-friendly long term deal. if calling him up earlier makes it more likely that he's going to spend a year or year and a half being mediocre, like bogaerts and profar have done, then i'd much prefer to leave him in iowa, and get more of his peak while not blowing a lot of his cheap years as he figures out how to hit major league pitching.

[SouthSideRyan]

So now you want to keep him down until mid-April of next year? Avoiding Super 2 is saving a few bucks at a time when we should be wiping our asses with 100 dollar bills

[TruffleShuffle]

So now you want to keep him down until mid-April of next year? Avoiding Super 2 is saving a few bucks at a time when we should be wiping our asses with 100 dollar bills

 

no, i want to keep him down until (a) he's had long enough in the minors where he's had sustained success in the upper minors, and (b) he represents a likely upgrade over the current players on the major league roster. if that takes until april or may of next year, so be it.

[Guest]

Similar to Tim's list, there's only 2 spots for Russell to displace, so if any 2 of these options are playing well, there's not really room for him:

 

- LF Platoon

- Alcantara

- La Stella or Olt (combined because individually the likelihood is particularly low)

- Baez at Iowa

 

Now if Russell puts up a 1.000+ OPS with a 5% K rate or something for the next 6 weeks, that can change the decision a bit. But if we're getting AA Russell at Iowa I don't think there's going to be a huge urgency to bring him up.

[sneakypower]

I could not give a single [expletive] about super 2 cutoffs. Are you seriously buying the "full season at a level" garbage Theo is trotting out to keep the MLBPA off his back?

i am, but that's because i've paid enough attention to his history as an executive to see he's proven to be pretty much beyond reproach when it comes to player development

[Guest]

Similar to Tim's list, there's only 2 spots for Russell to displace, so if any 2 of these options are playing well, there's not really room for him:

 

- LF Platoon

- Alcantara

- La Stella or Olt (combined because individually the likelihood is particularly low)

- Baez at Iowa

 

Now if Russell puts up a 1.000+ OPS with a 5% K rate or something for the next 6 weeks, that can change the decision a bit. But if we're getting AA Russell at Iowa I don't think there's going to be a huge urgency to bring him up.

 

Two of those options playing well is far from a foregone conclusion.

[Guest]

Similar to Tim's list, there's only 2 spots for Russell to displace, so if any 2 of these options are playing well, there's not really room for him:

 

- LF Platoon

- Alcantara

- La Stella or Olt (combined because individually the likelihood is particularly low)

- Baez at Iowa

 

Now if Russell puts up a 1.000+ OPS with a 5% K rate or something for the next 6 weeks, that can change the decision a bit. But if we're getting AA Russell at Iowa I don't think there's going to be a huge urgency to bring him up.

 

Two of those options playing well is far from a foregone conclusion.

 

I'm not trying to say that it is, but the odds of 2 of those 4(5 if you want to treat TLS and Olt separately) are high enough that it's not some outrage that we expect Russell to be in AAA until at least summer. You need time to find out that the current MLB guys are actually performing poorly, for one, and if Baez comes back and starts controlling the zone then he's going to be ahead of Russell in the pecking order.

[Guest]

Similar to Tim's list, there's only 2 spots for Russell to displace, so if any 2 of these options are playing well, there's not really room for him:

 

- LF Platoon

- Alcantara

- La Stella or Olt (combined because individually the likelihood is particularly low)

- Baez at Iowa

 

Now if Russell puts up a 1.000+ OPS with a 5% K rate or something for the next 6 weeks, that can change the decision a bit. But if we're getting AA Russell at Iowa I don't think there's going to be a huge urgency to bring him up.

 

Two of those options playing well is far from a foregone conclusion.

 

I'm not trying to say that it is, but the odds of 2 of those 4(5 if you want to treat TLS and Olt separately) are high enough that it's not some outrage that we expect Russell to be in AAA until at least summer. You need time to find out that the current MLB guys are actually performing poorly, for one, and if Baez comes back and starts controlling the zone then he's going to be ahead of Russell in the pecking order.

 

No, I know... wasn't trying to be argumentative so much as just pointing that out.

 

I do think we see Russell by sometime in June if he continues to look really good. Whether it's maybe at 2B with Bryant at 3B or 3B with Bryant in LF remains to be seen and dependent on those same guys you mentioned.

[craig]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

 

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be.

 

For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster.

 

(I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.)

 

Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

 

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be.

 

For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster.

 

(I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.)

 

Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

 

As you're saying, the only way Javy earns his way back up quickly is by Bryant-ing all over AAA immediately. Otherwise he'll be close enough to an extra year of control, that I'm sure they'd hold him down.

[SouthSideRyan]

I could not give a single [expletive] about super 2 cutoffs. Are you seriously buying the "full season at a level" garbage Theo is trotting out to keep the MLBPA off his back?

i am, but that's because i've paid enough attention to his history as an executive to see he's proven to be pretty much beyond reproach when it comes to player development

 

That assumes Epstein is being the least bit honest with his public statements.

[Guest]

Also, a .755 OPS 2B with good defense has got to be way closer to "star" than "JAG."

[Guest]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

 

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be.

 

For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster.

 

(I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.)

 

Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

 

As you're saying, the only way Javy earns his way back up quickly is by Bryant-ing all over AAA immediately. Otherwise he'll be close enough to an extra year of control, that I'm sure they'd hold him down.

I think that's the opposite of what he's saying.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

 

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be.

 

For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster.

 

(I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.)

 

Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

 

As you're saying, the only way Javy earns his way back up quickly is by Bryant-ing all over AAA immediately. Otherwise he'll be close enough to an extra year of control, that I'm sure they'd hold him down.

I think that's the opposite of what he's saying.

 

He's saying if Baez explodes, then the extra year will matter, and in turn they'd want the extra year. If he just Javys along, then it wouldn't make sense to call him up until he's close to the extra year anyway