Cubs 2015 #10 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #10 prospect. Last chance to put your favorite prospect in the top 10!

 

Starting with #11, we'll move to a system of multiple votes, but I think it makes sense at the top to just vote for a single player.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

#6 Billy McKinney

#7 Gleyber Torres

#8 Albert Almora

#9 Pierce Johnson

[ctcf]

I'm actually going with Tseng here.

[Guest]

I tossed a vote to Stinnett. I'm impressed with him just getting on the mound after having that injury, let alone pitching well.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure how to rank Stinnett and Underwood (and Tseng). Of the three, I think Tseng will end up dropping a bit on my list. The injury concern and the reports about a lack of oomph will put him behind a few other guys for me.

 

However, I'm hoping they all pitch in MB this year and we can sort it out more easily come midseason.

[Guest]

Tough choice between Stinnett and Tseng.

 

I see a lot of Samardzija in the reports I've read about Stinnett, and think he's the most likely of the remaining options to be a top of the rotation guy.

 

Tseng on the other hand is someone who could fall in the Hendricks-esque blind spot of guys who don't K a ton of folks but can really pitch and locate. For example:

 

Tseng at A- at 19: 105 IP, 6.5 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9

Hendricks at A+ at 22: 147.2 IP, 8.5 H/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9

 

With similarly great control, Tseng was less hittable while K'ing as many guys and allowing HR at a similar rate. It's hard to draw too many conclusions because of the level difference(Hendricks never pitched in Low A, and his short season time was 32 IP in 20 appearances), but at the least there's a path for him to follow.

 

What's even more interesting, and at the same time confusing, is how Tseng progressed this year:

 

Tseng's first 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 21 H, 14/1 K/BB, 0 HR

Tseng after those starts thru 7/13: 47 IP, 6.5 H/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9

Tseng after 7/13: 42.2 IP, 4.5 H/9, 5.0 K/9 1.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9

 

There's a case to be made that after a slight adjustment in his first 3 US/Pro outings, Tseng was a star. It's basically his season numbers with a much improved K rate added with no side effects. You can also make the case for him running out of steam a bit over the course of his first pro season as the reason for his K rate dipping. Tseng isn't a huge guy, but I haven't seen anyone really doubt his ability to remain a starter, so you could at least have some hope that with a full year of pro ball and conditioning/nutrition, he'll be able to better maintain that K rate through the full season.

 

What's confusing about this is that he was less hittable than ever during those final starts, a .441 OPS against and a 1.90 ERA. Maybe that means he wasn't so much tired as making a conscious decision to avoid hard contact, maybe one begat the other, maybe it's all statistical noise since we're segmenting the only 100 innings we have for him. The takeaway I have though is that there's at least a reasonable hope that Tseng can improve upon his peripherals at higher levels. If he's a guy who can strike out 8+ guys per 9 innings through his ascent(Hendricks: 7.7), then I think he's a really good guy to have around.

 

Ultimately I'm flipping a coin here, so I'll throw it Stinnett's way simply because of the upside that Tseng probably doesn't have.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I just need to see some actual professional innings from Stinnett before I get excited.

[craig]

Tseng. 6:1 K/BB plays very well. Location/command. Consistency.

 

Underrated stuff. Good curve, good change, good slider. Commands everything. Good delivery so that hitters can't read what's coming. Four-pitch repertoire gives him enough variety so that he can work different hitters in different ways, and work different games in different ways. (If the curve is off, he's not cooked because he's got other weapons to use.)

 

I'm thinking Hendricks command but can cruise with 2-3 more mph?

 

Tseng's velocity may be somewhat underrated. I think he threw his fastball slower than he could, or than he will in future.

 

Part of Derek Johnson's development program is to set a velocity range where a guy can consistently throw strikes within that range, without stressing the arm. The Cubs think throwing harder puts more stress on the arm; compromises control; and compromises change-of-speed strategies. Restraining the velocity is especially a priority for new guys.

 

So, I think that Tseng may later throw harder than he did this past year. Either because he really gets stronger physically. Or simply because when he's a little older they'll be more confident that he can throw harder with control and with a repeatable delivery.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I went with the guy who is going to contribute in the majors this year over a bunch of dreamy teenagers.

[sneakypower]

I just need to see some actual professional innings from Stinnett before I get excited.

yeah i'd just as soon give a vote to Eloy Jimenez, if we're going purely on massive upside

[toonsterwu]

Vote's still Underwood. Much higher upside than Tseng while still being productive in full-season. Maybe he busts, but unless Tseng's velocity kicks up to reported numbers pre-Cubs days (where he supposedly zipped mid-90's ... I still say that those reports were perhaps true, but flawed in that there were times in International play where he was only coming in for an inning or two and could ramp it up) and his secondary stuff show more than the reports of average/above average, it's just hard to pick him, IMO, over Underwood unless he proves it up the ladder.

 

I can sort of understand a Stinnett vote here (and as noted, I think there's a case for Stinnett over Pierce Johnson as well). That said, by most accounts, Stinnett's ceiling isn't higher than Underwood, he's 2 years older, and he's yet to get a full-season's work in.

[craig]

I voted Tseng, but I really like Stinnett too.

 

I'll have Stinnett ahead of Underwood, I think. Big, strong guy. Excellent stuff, very good movement on his fastball, throws hard, and really good command with his fastball. Very good slider. The keys for him, I think, will be:

1. how his change develops.

2. How consistently fine his command can be. Derek Johnson is a big believer that he's going to really be a good control artist, but again that's a lot easier to project than to actually prove true. A lot easier to analogize to Hendricks or Maddux than to actually have that level of control pretty consistently.

3. How his cutter develops. He's got good stuff and movement. If he can spot fastball, slider, and cutter, those are three movement variations that can help success against both lefties and righties, and can come out of the hand and be hard for hitters to differentiate.

 

Will be interesting to see how well Stinnett handles Myrtle Beach, and how quickly they bump him up to AA this summer.

 

Underwood threw harder than the other guys last year. Not sure how much harder than Stinnett. He showed some really good progress over the year, and improved consistency in a way. At the same time, my game recall is that he was still somewhat inconsistent. One day a good bunch of K's; the next very few. One day high groundouts, the game now many at all. That may be a good thing; he's got varying tools and can win in different ways. Some of the media reports have been positive that his curveball is sometimes pretty nice, and on occasion his change is pretty nice too. If he can get consistency, we might have a really good pitcher. A hesitation on my part for him are the high HR's. 10HR's in 100 innings would be OK in majors, but that's pretty high in low-A. My sense is that each of his pitches is currently somewhat inconsistent, and also that sometimes his delivery telegraphs what's coming. Hopefully with time and coaching and experience, he'll smooth that, and gain consistency and command of all his pitches.

 

Johnson, Tseng, Stinnett, and Underwood, those are some very good prospects. Let's hope that they all stay healthy, and several (all?) of them progress favorably this summer.

[Guest]

 

Johnson, Tseng, Stinnett, and Underwood, those are some very good prospects. Let's hope that they all stay healthy, and several (all?) of them progress favorably this summer.

I agree, maybe we are all drinking the kool-aide, but I really can't remember a time when the Cubs were this deep across the board.

[rawaction]

I said Johnson, Almora, Underwood 2 votes ago. Sticking with the last on my list. But I remember when I personally ranked the prospects at the end of last regular season, I had Underwood 11th. I can't remember who else I had in the top 10 though. I'm assuming it was Tseng and I changed my mind or if I ranked Baez or something.

[Cubswin11]

Where is Stinnett expected to start this year? Just out of curiosity

[toonsterwu]

 

Johnson, Tseng, Stinnett, and Underwood, those are some very good prospects. Let's hope that they all stay healthy, and several (all?) of them progress favorably this summer.

I agree, maybe we are all drinking the kool-aide, but I really can't remember a time when the Cubs were this deep across the board.

 

If we're strictly talking pitching, the prospect "status" of the guys back in, uh, I want to say 2003, was fairly ridiculous. Of course, as it often goes with pitching prospects, having 5 good ones doesn't mean much.

 

____________________

 

Total side note, but I'm a bit surprised at the votes for Tseng in comparison to Stinnett. If I was voting between those two, I would vote Stinnett easily, and I have bias for Tseng and against Stinnett (Maryland).

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Where is Stinnett expected to start this year? Just out of curiosity

i'd assume South Bend.

[toonsterwu]

Where is Stinnett expected to start this year? Just out of curiosity

i'd assume South Bend.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they sent him to Myrtle Beach. I guess it would depend on how he shows in the Spring, but if he's healthy, perhaps they push him to warmer weather. Dunno, could see it either way, and oddly, I'm blocked from AzPhil reports where I am right now, so can't be certain if he's posted anything interesting.

[craig]

I think Madison and Johnson are thinking Myrtle Beach for Stinnett. But, guys need to show up in camp and look fine, so some control issues can set that back.

 

Man, we need to have a thread with the projected rotations at each level, eh?

 

Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez

*If Stinnett doesn't make it, Martinez or Skulina seem best guesses, or some roster filler.

 

South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele.

*Martinez could stay behind. Or somebody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd.

*Perhaps even the long-lost Trey Masek will appear in the professional baseball!

 

Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier