Cubs 2015 #5 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #5 prospect.

 

Later on, we'll move to a system of multiple votes, but I think it makes sense at the top to just vote for a single player.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

[NOLA]

Just a heads up, you included Schwarber in the poll again.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Just a heads up, you included Schwarber in the poll again.

 

He's good enough to be both the fourth and fifth best prospect.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I voted for McKinney, but it was close between him and Torres. I might be persuaded to change that however.

[Guest]

Just a heads up, you included Schwarber in the poll again.

Damn...After I took out Schwarbs, it cleared all the votes.

[Guest]

I voted for McKinney, but it was close between him and Torres. I might be persuaded to change that however.

Torres: good marks for fielding and throwing as a shortstop and hit very well stateside in his debut as a 17 year old. Also had a 13% walk rate.

 

McKinney - arm and range probably limits him to left field in MLB, not likely to provide typical LF power, but plus marks for on base ability.

[Rob]

I'm a bit bummed to have missed the first four spots, but this is where it gets interesting anyways.

 

I like McKinney, but Torres has the better prospect pedigree, is more likely to stick at a premium defensive position, and actually walked more often (as crazy as that is). And while McKinney is super young for his league, Torres could spend all of 2015 in A ball and still remain on the same development path as McKinney. I think McKinney is criminally underrrated, but I just can't place him above Torres.

 

I know Almora ranks higher than both on some lists, but wow was last year abysmal. If he starts walking or showing some power, I wouldn't have a problem jumping Almora over either at mid-season though.

 

The only other guy really in consideration for me here is Edwards. And I'm just a bit too scared of the injury situation right now to rank him above Torres.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That is one hell of a dropoff from 4 to 5.

[Guest]

That is one hell of a dropoff from 4 to 5.

Which is why the vote was nearly unanimous at #4.

 

We're still talking about top 50-75 prospects here, which is pretty crazy considering the dropoff.

[Guest]

I'm a bit bummed to have missed the first four spots, but this is where it gets interesting anyways.

 

I like McKinney, but Torres has the better prospect pedigree, is more likely to stick at a premium defensive position, and actually walked more often (as crazy as that is). And while McKinney is super young for his league, Torres could spend all of 2015 in A ball and still remain on the same development path as McKinney. I think McKinney is criminally underrrated, but I just can't place him above Torres.

 

I know Almora ranks higher than both on some lists, but wow was last year abysmal. If he starts walking or showing some power, I wouldn't have a problem jumping Almora over either at mid-season though.

 

The only other guy really in consideration for me here is Edwards. And I'm just a bit too scared of the injury situation right now to rank him above Torres.

McKinney's limited power projection puts him behind Torres for me

 

Edwards' injury and stamina questions puts him behind Torres for me

 

Almora's disastrous 2014 puts him behind Torres for me

 

Those are going to be my next three guys in some order.

[Guest]

Torn between McKinney and Edwards for 5, will be torn between Torres and Stinnett at 7.

 

I'll go with Edwards for this vote, he still has the ceiling and I'm still an optimist that he can be a starter. McKinney was a terrific pickup, but I'm a little leery of his LF-only defense and lack of a ton of power making his ceiling closer to a 4th OF.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I voted for the dood who struck out 100 in 65 innings at AA and AAA last year over Matt Murton and some random teenage infielder.

[Sammy Sofa]

I voted for Edwards 'cuz he's gonna sexily help get us Hamels.

[Guest]

I voted for the dood who struck out 100 in 65 innings at AA and AAA last year over Matt Murton and some random teenage infielder.

There was no question in my mind who you voted for.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I voted for the dood who struck out 100 in 65 innings at AA and AAA last year over Matt Murton and some random teenage infielder.

There was no question in my mind who you voted for.

 

Sometime in the next three years he's going to put up a season akin to peak Marmol.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oops, I forgot to give a dismissive to Almora. Umm, CF Darwin.

[Tryptamine]

Went with Edwards because the numbers are always strong. If he fails to log innings again this year then he will take a big tumble.

[craig]

I'm going with Edwards. He's hard to hit, he allows very few HR's, and by account he's got good late movement on his fastball. (Which is probably why the HR's are so low.) He's already been reasonably good in AA.

 

Concerns are control and durability. His control this past year was inconsistent at best. Maybe that was partly missing time, and then not being in a groove when he came back, but I'm a little concerned that he's maybe going to have some Marmol-light issues. Obviously he's a pitcher, and after some arm issues last year the risk of future arm problems is probably elevated. Plus the size and question of whether he can sustain his stuff beyond 60 pitches as might be needed to start.

 

But everybody has questions at this point, and I'm not sure there aren't as many or more concerns for Torres, Almora, and McKinney. (Or Rivero).

 

I'm also not a believer that value vanishes if a guy moved to relief. Pitchers with good stuff who can get people out end up being useful, and always get opportunities. (No place like the bullpen for having usage ending up conforming to performance.) I'm very much motivated for the Cubs to end up with a really, really good bullpen. If Edwards ends up there, but he's good, that's still not a bad value for a #5 prospect.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think I'm still going with McKinney...but I'm torn. I like Torres a lot.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really just don't care much for McKinney and might not put him in the top 10. He's kinda good at drawing walks and kinda bad at power and everything else is just meh and ordinary. He seems perfectly on track for classic Matt Murton career path: Interesting prospect to "guy we think would be a hidden value if he could get a starting job somewhere" to 'Maybe he can be a reserve outfielder" to "Man, I don't get why that guy isn't in the majors somewhere" to nobody caring by 27.

[Guest]

But everybody has questions at this point, and I'm not sure there aren't as many or more concerns for Torres, Almora, and McKinney. (Or Rivero).

Out of curiosity, have you heard any questions about Torres other than he hasn't played above short season yet?

[Guest]

Torres, without a doubt. Look at what he did last season, in his first pro season, at 17, in a foreign country. He's accomplished more professionally than any of Castro, Lake, Alcantara, Baez or Russell had at the same age.

[Guest]

Tim, unless there's another Mejia in the system I can't think of at the moment, Jefferson Mejia went to Arizona as part of the Miguel Montero trade.

[Guest]

I really just don't care much for McKinney and might not put him in the top 10. He's kinda good at drawing walks and kinda bad at power and everything else is just meh and ordinary. He seems perfectly on track for classic Matt Murton career path: Interesting prospect to "guy we think would be a hidden value if he could get a starting job somewhere" to 'Maybe he can be a reserve outfielder" to "Man, I don't get why that guy isn't in the majors somewhere" to nobody caring by 27.

 

Important in that comparison, McKinney will be 27 at the end of the 2021 season. He's younger than Almora and only about 6 months older than the likes of Carson Sands. It's especially interesting in McKinney's case because filling out and turning some doubles into home runs would be a big win for him. He's not going to be losing much of any positional value since he's already not fast enough for CF and doesn't have enough arm for RF, and adding bulk won't confine him to 1B/DH either. He's got terrific plate discipline and his performance ticked up over the course of last season, whether it was due to new coaching, adjusting to the level after skipping Low A, or a little of both. I absolutely understand the skepticism with him(he didn't get my vote at #5), but his performance plus the indicators we get from the scouting community with most all putting him the top 100 show he's more than a rich man's Rademacher. Keeping him out of the top 10 entirely requires a lot of cognitive dissonance.

[Guest]

To illustrate a bit further, here's the FSL leaders with a minimum of 200 PA (McKinney had 210). http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=10&qual=200&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0

 

Sort by OPS, wOBA, wRC+, the order doesn't really change. At the top you've got Nimmo, Josh Bell, Pompey, a handful of 25+ year olds, and then McKinney, who's still 2 years younger than any of the names I called out..