Offseason Rumors & Transactions Thread

[Guest]

i bet eddie perez probably was pretty decent at it

I'm sure you get the point that umpire "respect" for established pitchers has more to do with pitches off the plate being called strikes than a catchers ability in that "skill". This is a time where the numbers lie, or at least we can't discern how much of the number is being generated by which factor.

 

Player Attribution

 

Because catching necessarily involves pitching, and because pitching talent is not equally distributed across the league, it can be difficult to correctly assign credit for each catcher's contribution to a framing total. For example, if Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, or Derek Lowe is your batterymate, you are likely to get more favorable calls than if your batterymate is Andrew Miller, Brandon League, or Micah Owings.

 

We empirically determined each pitcher's value—to isolate it from each catcher's value—by performing a WOWY ("With or Without You") analysis. We note that we also compared these values to a linear regression model that included pitcher and catcher as separate factors; the high correlation between these measures suggested a good degree of ability to correctly assign credit (or blame) to individual players. The WOWY adjustments provide a viable and modular means of assessing the impact of pitchers on framing.

 

The adjustments derived from the WOWY analysis reflect two aspects of our approach. First, pitchers who throw a pitch that may not fit the norm for a given pitch group may show some difference in the WOWY results (such as hard cutters in the slider/cutter group). Second, pitchers with better command of a pitch than their peers (or the unqualified respect of the umpire) will seem easier to frame.

 

The WOWY analysis created adjustments ranging from +/- .1 called strikes per opportunity and from +/- .01 runs per opportunity. The largest gross beneficiary of easy-to-frame pitchers was—Yadier Molina. The perennial gold glove winner started the analysis with 127 runs added before giving 60 back to his pitchers. This reflects the command contributions of teammates of the class of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and is no knock on Molina, who still ranks high overall.

 

The difficulty of framing a particular pitch—the difference between a fastball and a knuckleball—is already accounted for in the probabilistic model. R.A. Dickey's catchers may earn an adjustment above and beyond the credit already given to them for handling a knuckleball if Dickey is harder to catch than his peer group. Dickey actually outperforms the model by a bit, so his catchers get a small deduction.

 

According to the RPM method, Tom Glavine was a wizard at getting extra strikes, which supports his reputation.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934

[Guest]

i bet eddie perez probably was pretty decent at it

I'm sure you get the point that umpire "respect" for established pitchers has more to do with pitches off the plate being called strikes than a catchers ability in that "skill". This is a time where the numbers lie, or at least we can't discern how much of the number is being generated by which factor.

 

Player Attribution

 

Because catching necessarily involves pitching, and because pitching talent is not equally distributed across the league, it can be difficult to correctly assign credit for each catcher's contribution to a framing total. For example, if Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, or Derek Lowe is your batterymate, you are likely to get more favorable calls than if your batterymate is Andrew Miller, Brandon League, or Micah Owings.

 

We empirically determined each pitcher's value—to isolate it from each catcher's value—by performing a WOWY ("With or Without You") analysis. We note that we also compared these values to a linear regression model that included pitcher and catcher as separate factors; the high correlation between these measures suggested a good degree of ability to correctly assign credit (or blame) to individual players. The WOWY adjustments provide a viable and modular means of assessing the impact of pitchers on framing.

 

The adjustments derived from the WOWY analysis reflect two aspects of our approach. First, pitchers who throw a pitch that may not fit the norm for a given pitch group may show some difference in the WOWY results (such as hard cutters in the slider/cutter group). Second, pitchers with better command of a pitch than their peers (or the unqualified respect of the umpire) will seem easier to frame.

 

The WOWY analysis created adjustments ranging from +/- .1 called strikes per opportunity and from +/- .01 runs per opportunity. The largest gross beneficiary of easy-to-frame pitchers was—Yadier Molina. The perennial gold glove winner started the analysis with 127 runs added before giving 60 back to his pitchers. This reflects the command contributions of teammates of the class of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and is no knock on Molina, who still ranks high overall.

 

The difficulty of framing a particular pitch—the difference between a fastball and a knuckleball—is already accounted for in the probabilistic model. R.A. Dickey's catchers may earn an adjustment above and beyond the credit already given to them for handling a knuckleball if Dickey is harder to catch than his peer group. Dickey actually outperforms the model by a bit, so his catchers get a small deduction.

 

According to the RPM method, Tom Glavine was a wizard at getting extra strikes, which supports his reputation.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934

so many false assumptions. There is no question that something is going on with regard to getting borderline strikes. It's just this quantification model is terrible.

[Guest]

Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com was told by a major league executive that the Red Sox are "all in" on free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Most have pegged the Giants as the favorites to re-sign Sandoval, but Edes says the Red Sox "are making a big push to sign him." For what it's worth, general manager Ben Cherington met with Sandoval's agent, Gustavo Vazquez, on Tuesday and said the conversation was "constructive." The White Sox and Blue Jays are also interested in the third baseman. Sandoval is aiming for a six-year deal in the $100 million range.

Related: Red Sox

Source: ESPNBoston.com

Nov 11 - 8:36 PM

[RynoRules]

Sheesh, that's a lot of money for Sandoval. His OPS has dropped each of the last three years, he hasn't been above .800 since 2011, and he never has walked very much. I realize the position is very thin (he was a 3.3 WAR player last season) and he's only 28, but I'd be very nervous about giving him that much money and that long a commitment.

[Clem Fandango]

Robertson reportedly asking for Papelbon money. With the Cubs also linked to Andrew Miller, if they insist on getting one reliever I think I'd prefer Miller at the cheaper cost considering we've already got a good bullpen as it is.

[Guest]

I found this the other day and thought it was fun:

 

2014

Andrew Miller v. LHP: .163/.206/.261

Tsuyoshi Wada v. LHP: .184/.245/.184

 

Granted Miller was similarly unhittable against RHP, but he had a reverse split in 2013 and an even worse platoon split than Wada in 2012. If Wada is to be the new Villanueva, and I think there's a lot of reasons for that to make sense, then the bullpen is full, especially for a LHRP.

[Guest]

@CSNMooney Theo: "People predict that we’re going to sign 2 top-of-the-rotation starters who both require 9-figure contracts. That’s not happening."

 

For anyone holding out hope for Scherzer and Lester.

[Guest]

@CSNMooney Theo: "People predict that we’re going to sign 2 top-of-the-rotation starters who both require 9-figure contracts. That’s not happening."

 

For anyone holding out hope for Scherzer and Lester.

 

That just tells me that the Cubs are signing both to $99,999,999 contracts.

[jersey cubs fan]

@CSNMooney Theo: "People predict that we’re going to sign 2 top-of-the-rotation starters who both require 9-figure contracts. That’s not happening."

 

For anyone holding out hope for Scherzer and Lester.

TRADES

[Guest]

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 54s55 seconds ago

Source-Free agent pitcher Jon Lester will visit Cubs for formal meetings and tour next week .

[Post Count Padder]

Yankees trade Cervelli to the Pirates for pitcher Justin Wilson. Guessing the Pirates plan to go with a three headed monster of Cervelli, Christ Stewart and Tony Sanchez next year at catcher, barring other moves.

[Guest]

Well that puts a significant dent in my dream of trading Coghlan for JR Murphy.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yankees trade Cervelli to the Pirates for pitcher Justin Wilson. Guessing the Pirates plan to go with a three headed monster of Cervelli, Christ Stewart and Tony Sanchez next year at catcher, barring other moves.

 

i can't imagine a team carrying 3 catchers unless one of those catchers hits well enough to play semi-regularly at another position (probably first base).

[Post Count Padder]

Yankees trade Cervelli to the Pirates for pitcher Justin Wilson. Guessing the Pirates plan to go with a three headed monster of Cervelli, Christ Stewart and Tony Sanchez next year at catcher, barring other moves.

 

i can't imagine a team carrying 3 catchers unless one of those catchers hits well enough to play semi-regularly at another position (probably first base).

I don't know that they would keep all three at once but that would probably be the primary three. They love Stewart's defense and Sanchez was their first rounder a few years ago.

[Guest]

@CSNMooney Theo: "People predict that we’re going to sign 2 top-of-the-rotation starters who both require 9-figure contracts. That’s not happening."

 

For anyone holding out hope for Scherzer and Lester.

 

does anyone understand how many pounds of bacon Ricketts's dog would have to eat in order for Ricketts to have the grease to sell to afford Scherzer and Lester?

[Post Count Padder]

Also, is it just me or is the idea of spending money on Robertson or Andrew Miller undesirable?

 

We can go into next year with Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Vizcaino, Wright, Rivero and Wada/Turner/Straily/Doubront/Parker/Grimm/Rosscup/etc. Decent pen with some depth. Signing one of those two doesn't seem like a good use of resources to me.

[Guest]

It's funny because Tom Ricketts is poor.

[XZero771679666304]

Also, is it just me or is the idea of spending money on Robertson or Andrew Miller undesirable?

 

We can go into next year with Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Vizcaino, Wright, Rivero and Wada/Turner/Straily/Doubront/Parker/Grimm/Rosscup/etc. Decent pen with some depth. Signing one of those two doesn't seem like a good use of resources to me.

 

Yeah, while I wouldn't mind either one, I really don't see the need. That money would be better spent elsewhere, imo.

[Deeg]

I think Miller and Robertson are in very different categories. First off in terms of cost, but also because Miller is a lights-out lefty, maybe the best lefty reliever in the game. For what I've seen estimated in terms of cost (something like 4/32) I'd be very supportive.

[Rob]

I think Miller and Robertson are in very different categories. First off in terms of cost, but also because Miller is a lights-out lefty, maybe the best lefty reliever in the game. For what I've seen estimated in terms of cost (something like 4/32) I'd be very supportive.

 

I'd take Chapman, McGee, and Doolittle over Miller as far as lefties are concerned.

[Guest]

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 54s55 seconds ago

Source-Free agent pitcher Jon Lester will visit Cubs for formal meetings and tour next week .

 

btw i hope we figured out that play room situation first

[UK1679666180]

Yankees trade Cervelli to the Pirates for pitcher Justin Wilson. Guessing the Pirates plan to go with a three headed monster of Cervelli, Christ Stewart and Tony Sanchez next year at catcher, barring other moves.

 

i can't imagine a team carrying 3 catchers unless one of those catchers hits well enough to play semi-regularly at another position (probably first base).

 

Reminds me of the 89 Cubs.

[Guest]

It's weird to me that Cameron has, in the past, suggested he thinks the Cubs would be more interested in Scherzer than Lester essentially because he says Scherzer is better

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2015-free-agent-landmines/

 

and then Scherzer is at the top of this list and Lester isn't on it...

[Guest]

There's talk the Reds may decide to blow it up this offseason.

 

One less possibly good team would be nice.

[Guest]

It's funny because Tom Ricketts is poor.

The man owns a god damn pudding factory I don't think he's that poor.