The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[UMFan83]

Does anyone wonder if this 'accelerated timetable' includes Bryant being up on Opening Day? If they are going for it to some degree of aggressiveness, a month without your top prospect that is ready for the bigs will hurt them.

 

Only if they're not smart. Just by waiting a month, you gain an entire year of control. Even if Bryant is worth 2 more WAR (he won't be) than Valbuena, that's about 1/3 of 1 win. Just wait the month.

 

Angering Boras could cost you more long-term, especially if Bryant had a great ST.

 

It's mutually assured destruction. If Boras decides to hold a grudge with the Cubs, he alienates a big market team in the 3rd largest market in the country that is expecting to see its revenues, and likely payroll, rise over the next several years.

[toonsterwu]

So Keith Law doesn't think the Cubs are contenders because he thinks Lester is replacing Hendricks in the rotation and that the bullpen is a weakness.

What about Hendricks makes people think he's a lock for the rotation/is going to be good? His FB averages only 87 MPH and he struck out like 5 per 9 last year. I get he has really good control, but his stuff just isn't there.

 

I don't think anyone is saying Hendricks is going to be great, but that he might be a cheap back of the rotation option. I've never loved the stuff, but his command is better than "good" - it's excellent, and he gets enough groundballs to go with it.

 

Is he a lock for the rotation? As of now, I would hardly say he's a lock, as Lester/Arrieta/Hammel are really the only "locks", but if he's not in the big league rotation, I don't know if there's great value in the pen, and thus, he'd be sent back to AAA. We've got a lot of "back end" guys on the 40 (Beeler, Straily, Wood, Wada, Turner, Jackson, Roach, Jokisch, Doubront, Hendricks) fighting for spots, so I'm not ready to pencil anyone from that group as a rotation lock, but he's probably as good a bet to be a productive, solid end of the rotation arm as anyone in that group.

 

Ideally, I'd like to see the Cubs add another starter (not high end, unless Shields comes surprisingly cheaper than expected or Hamels prospect cost is lower than what Amaro wants) and the market seems to have enough guys that the price on one or two might be alright, but if we have to bang it out with that group to enter the year, okay.

[Gilby]

I think it's interesting the way reporters are talking about the two paths the Cubs were going to take this offseason depending on Lester. I think we assumed they didn't want Scherzer, but that also makes me think they weren't going to go too far for Shields if JL didn't sign.

[Guest]

I knew about the Lester signing a week ago because I live in San Diego. I just didn't want to be the one to break the news.

 

 

 

Okay, I lied. I was watching Sons of Anarchy when the announcement was made, and then I was getting caught up on this thread (yes, the painful OMC posts) when the official announcement was made.

 

Looking forward to the other moves Theo has planned.

[UMFan83]

Man I'm looking at the game logs for Lester's postseason in 2013...no its not Madison Bumgarner this playoffs but damn

 

ALDS vs. TB:

Game 1 in BOS: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

 

ALCS vs. DET:

Game 1 in BOS: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Game 5 at DET: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

 

WS vs. STL:

Game 1 in BOS: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Game 5 at STL: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

[UMFan83]

Where the heck is nocode today?

[Smack]

Where the heck is nocode today?

 

He posted earlier.

[toonsterwu]

Lester's cutter + Bosio + NL = fun.

Kinda why I want to add McCarthy yet as well.

 

Much as I like McCarthy, and this is saying the obvious, I would only do it at the right cost (most seem to think he'll get 3-4 years). Short of it is, I wonder if his value might get pushed up a bit, now that Lester is off the market, leaving the extremely costly Scherzer or Shields.

 

I think there's enough pitchers on the market, trade and free agency, that the Cubs can be a bit selective if they wanted to add one more guy. We've only dealt Jefferson Mejia this off-season out of intriguing farm assets - there's still enough secondary assets that can be moved without denting the system while adding key pieces to the team.

[CubColtPacer]

So Keith Law doesn't think the Cubs are contenders because he thinks Lester is replacing Hendricks in the rotation and that the bullpen is a weakness.

What about Hendricks makes people think he's a lock for the rotation/is going to be good? His FB averages only 87 MPH and he struck out like 5 per 9 last year. I get he has really good control, but his stuff just isn't there.

 

I don't know that he's going to be good, but the reason people are optimistic about him is that he's done it at every single level. His peripherals were strong at every single level of the minor leagues. Even though his strikeout numbers went way down when hitting the majors, the rest of his peripherals were still very strong.

 

Players with his stuff profile also tend to be extremely hittable. In addition to limiting home runs, Hendricks has also been very solid at avoiding runners on base. Minor league numbers of 8 hits per 9 and 0.4 HR, and that was almost exactly what it was in the majors last year (8.1 and 0.4).

 

Obviously his lack of overpowering stuff is going to bring hesitation. But he seems to have every other piece (great command, good offspeed pitch, ability to keep the ball down in the zone). Even if he regresses back to his xfip number next year, that's still a 4 ERA cheap back of the rotation option.

[Cubswin11]

I agree, I'm not going nuts for McCarthy (4 years or more). I'd like to get him something between what Hammel and Liriano got. Edited December 10, 2014 by Cubswin11

[seanimal]

Have already had the "Have you guys won 11 championships yet?" card thrown at me by a Cardinals fan I know.

 

They're starting to feel the heat.

 

Objects in their mirror are closer than they appear.

 

But they are kinda blurry.

 

hahaha

[NOLA]

Olnley on BBTN just said Theo says Cubs are "going for it" this year, window has accelarated by 2-3 years. Maybe going after more pitching (Shields, Zimmerman) or an Upton. Theo is definitely not finished this offseason.

[UMFan83]

Olnley on BBTN just said Theo says Cubs are "going for it" this year, window has accelarated by 2-3 years. Maybe going after more pitching (Shields, Zimmerman) or an Upton. Theo is definitely not finished this offseason.

 

2-3 years? The Cubs weren't expecting to compete until 2017-2018? Thank God Lester chose the Cubs

Edited December 10, 2014 by UMFan83

[Gilby]

Olnley on BBTN just said Theo says Cubs are "going for it" this year, window has accelarated by 2-3 years. Maybe going after more pitching (Shields, Zimmerman) or an Upton. Theo is definitely not finished this offseason.

 

And he compared Bryant to Giancarlo Stanton and Russell to Larkin. Man it's fun to see people talking up the Cubs.

[Guest]

Olnley on BBTN just said Theo says Cubs are "going for it" this year, window has accelarated by 2-3 years. Maybe going after more pitching (Shields, Zimmerman) or an Upton. Theo is definitely not finished this offseason.

I get going after BJ as a contract swap with Jaxon. But in no way is he any longer a big bat.

[Guest]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/jon_leicester_autograph.jpg

[toonsterwu]

I knew about the Lester signing a week ago because I live in San Diego. I just didn't want to be the one to break the news.

 

 

 

Okay, I lied. I was watching Sons of Anarchy when the announcement was made, and then I was getting caught up on this thread (yes, the painful OMC posts) when the official announcement was made.

 

Looking forward to the other moves Theo has planned.

 

Without derailing this thread ... oy, that was ... an odd ending. Did not like the last scene (okay with what happened, though), although the finale was okay. Sort of gave up on that show several years back, only occasionally checking in, when they went into convoluted plans and last second reveals (I honestly don't recall what happened to the whole Jax was forced to work for the CIA thing).

 

Uh something Cubs related ... speaking of San Diego ... mildly curious what Jesse Hahn may cost, if he is supposedly available. Seems like a guy that might not cost an arm and a leg, although Preller would probably want something solid for him. May be a bit too costly for our needs for now, but was interesting to see his name pop up. Sort of makes me think Bud Norris (it's totally an off comparison - I think Norris' fastball/slider is probably better than Hahn's fastball/secondaries, but Hahn has a deeper arsenal than Norris ever did) in that, I don't know if he'll ever get the command to be rock solid, but his stuff may be solid enough to get by with it.

[UMFan83]

Olnley on BBTN just said Theo says Cubs are "going for it" this year, window has accelarated by 2-3 years. Maybe going after more pitching (Shields, Zimmerman) or an Upton. Theo is definitely not finished this offseason.

 

And he compared Bryant to Giancarlo Stanton and Russell to Larkin. Man it's fun to see people talking up the Cubs.

 

Can Baez at least be a 2B version of Rob Deer?

[Banedon]

trade for zimmerman plzkthx

[toonsterwu]

I would love Zimmerman, and in some respects, we make a ton of sense (they are looking at 2nd (or 3rd, I guess, but they obviously prefer Rendon at 3rd, as they should), or even shortstop, as Desmond is a free agent after next year), but unless a top guy gets moved (not saying he's worth it, not saying he isn't, I don't have the time or desire to dig at numbers these days), my hunch is that they could probably move Doug Fister and find a 2nd baseman.

[Cubswin11]

trade for zimmerman plzkthx

Almora, Baez, Alcantara, Edwards, Villanueva/Vogelbach, PJ, Tseng for Zimmerman and Harper.

[toonsterwu]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/jon_leicester_autograph.jpg

 

Raisin, you might remember more than I do, but besides Leicester and Mitre, who was the other "under-the-radar" arm from the grouping that there were some hopes on. I don't think I'm thinking of Nolasco. I think I'm thinking of a guy that snuck into the back end of a top 10. Ah, dammit, I'll go look.

 

Edit: Was thinking of Renyel Pinto. Ah ... the dreams on those arms. Looking at those names now, it's weird, somewhat, to think how there was a lot of intrigue on Chadd Blasko

Edited December 10, 2014 by toonsterwu

[apete6]

trade for zimmerman plzkthx

Almora, Baez, Alcantara, Edwards, Villanueva/Vogelbach, PJ, Tseng for Zimmerman and Harper.

 

LOLOL. If that happens, I'll walk to DC and bring Harper back myself.

 

If you want Harper, you have to give up Russell or Bryant.

 

Russell, Almora, Baez, Edwards, Tseng for Zimmerman and Harper. And that's probably not enough from the Cubs.

[Rob]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/jon_leicester_autograph.jpg

 

Raisin, you might remember more than I do, but besides Leicester and Mitre, who was the other "under-the-radar" arm from the grouping that there were some hopes on. I don't think I'm thinking of Nolasco. I think I'm thinking of a guy that snuck into the back end of a top 10. Ah, dammit, I'll go look.

 

Was it Todd Wellemeyer?

[Guest]

If Washington is willing to trade Harper, they by nature are probably undervalue him. He does have lingering injury problems and only put up 1.3 fWAR last year. It makes me wonder if you tell Rizzo "here's the #1 prospect in baseball to take over for Desmond next year(Russell), a multi-year solution at 2B/3B(Valbuena) and C(Castillo)", how much more you'd need to add.

 

Alternatively, I wonder what it would cost to get Span and Zimmerman. Or Span and Gonzalez.