javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread

[ctcf]

For anyone who cares, the updated PWL line on Javy through 95 PA's is .218 / .274 / .333 with a 7.4 BB% and 34.7 K%. 0 for 4 last night with 3 K's.

 

Wait, is this slash line even remotely correct?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=l132&t=p_pbp&pid=595879

 

I think he's combining regular season and playoffs, where that link is not.

 

Is Rotoworld just off then?

 

Javier Baez is 0-for-9 with six strikeouts so far in the Puerto Rican Winter League playoffs.

And he struck out 21 times in 43 at-bats during the regular season for Santurce. Baez has rare bat speed, but his whiff rate was eye-popping last season in the majors and the trend has continued in winter ball. He's a difficult player to project for the 2015 fantasy season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Finals vs. playoffs as a whole I believe.

[ctcf]

Finals vs. playoffs as a whole I believe.

 

Ahhhh that makes sense. Thanks.

[Guest]

I think it's more than that, unless the playoffs are as long/longer than the regular season. That MiLB page has had him stuck at 43 AB for basically a month.

[Guest]

He's Nuke Laloosh with a bat.

[George Hayduke]

Finals vs. playoffs as a whole I believe.

 

Ahhhh that makes sense. Thanks.

Yeah, they did a three week round robin thing to start the playoffs, and now they're in the finals, which include the two games to which he's referring. I'm just tacking it all onto the regular season numbers. The mlb website doesn't track them, so I thought I'd post updates every now and again since I've been keeping an eye on it anyway.

 

FWIW, his Puerto Rico OPS is down to .583 after an 0 for 5, 3K game yesterday. Of course I'm pulling for him, but unless he somehow magically finds his stroke in spring training I'm totally fine with him starting 2015 in Iowa at this point.

[NOLA]

Of course I'm pulling for him, but unless he somehow magically finds his stroke in spring training I'm totally fine with him starting 2015 in Iowa at this point.

Hasn't the FO all but said this would happen with their Rizzo comparisons and regular reminders on him working on his swing?

[George Hayduke]

Of course I'm pulling for him, but unless he somehow magically finds his stroke in spring training I'm totally fine with him starting 2015 in Iowa at this point.

Hasn't the FO all but said this would happen with their Rizzo comparisons and regular reminders on him working on his swing?

They have, but I think that represents a bit of a shift for them. At season's end I think the FO fully intended for him to start in 2015 and even a large number of posters here felt like sending him down to Iowa to start the year would be foolish and counterproductive. But I think everyone also thought he'd make more adjustments this winter than he has, and with where the team is positioned now in terms of contention, you almost have no choice unless he shows you something really solid in ST.

[Elrhino]

I'm worried about the collective of high k% batters on team OBP, even if Baez gets his k rates turned around from catastrophic to merely bad. It's going to be hard to have a high team OBP when you have Arismendy, Bryant, Baez and Castro striking out at a really high clip in a regular lineup, especially in the NL without a DH. I'm okay with this offense being built around the 3 run homer, but that requires two guys to get on base before the homer. I'm not sure the current collection of Cubs will be able to absorb Javy's flaws well.

[Clem Fandango]

Players can strike out a lot and still have high OBP's as long as they also walk a lot. Bryant will draw walks so I think you don't need to worry about him. If Baez cuts down on his K's, I imagine a byproduct of that will be him walking more. Alcantara showed decent patience in the minors over the last couple of seasons. If he can turn his game around I assume he'll be alright. Castro... well, he's probably just gonna be himself.

 

If Bryant really is the wunderkind we all hope and think he'll be, but he strikes out at a large clip, he should still be fine. Trout struck out 184 times last season and still had a .377 OBP because he was capable of drawing 83 walks. Stanton struck out 170 times... .395 OBP with 95 walks. I think Bryant's offensive profile could be considered similar to them in that particular regard.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Strikeouts aren't really a big concern for Castro.

[Guest]

Kris Bryant has a career .428 OBP. Castro's is about 25 points above league average(you can group Montero in this thought as well). Alcantara doesn't have a position right now so he has to hit to even play. Baez will be hitting 7th/8th if he's playing at all if his bat isn't performing. Rizzo and Fowler were both in the Top 15 in OBP last year.

[Some Guy]

Even if Baez can be fixed to barely acceptable levels of contact:

 

We still need less Ks in the lineup.

We still have plenty of power without him.

We still have numerous other attractive IF options, such that we won't even use him at his most valuable position.

 

So *if* he can rebuild his trade value, it seems obvious we should cash him in for something else. But first of course he has to go to AAA and not suck so bad.

[Cubswin11]

I'm worried about the collective of high k% batters on team OBP, even if Baez gets his k rates turned around from catastrophic to merely bad. It's going to be hard to have a high team OBP when you have Arismendy, Bryant, Baez and Castro striking out at a really high clip in a regular lineup, especially in the NL without a DH. I'm okay with this offense being built around the 3 run homer, but that requires two guys to get on base before the homer. I'm not sure the current collection of Cubs will be able to absorb Javy's flaws well.

He has a 15.6% career K%....

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, where did this "Castro strikes out a lot" thing come from? He's an aggressive hitter, sure, but that does not compute.

[Elrhino]

I guess I should have clarified that Castro isn't likely to help team OBP because he hates walks. Hopefully he keeps his LD% and HR/FB up at 2014 levels and he's taken a next step, and they don't regress back towards previous career averages.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I guess I should have clarified that Castro isn't likely to help team OBP because he hates walks.

 

...despite his high OBP, especially for his position. This caused me to ask myself who the opposite of Dusty Baker would be?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

People have this weird belief that if a player doesn't walk a lot, he must strike out a lot.

[Gilby]

It's 2015; a ~.330 OBP isn't low.

[Elrhino]

I guess I should have clarified that Castro isn't likely to help team OBP because he hates walks.

 

...despite his high OBP, especially for his position. This caused me to ask myself who the opposite of Dusty Baker would be?

 

Yes, because his career BB% is still 5.2%. Meaning his OBP is almost entirely dependent on a high BABIP. Like I said, if he maintains his significant jump in career high LD% and HR/FB% from 2014 because he turned some corner in development, great. If it turns out he was just having a one off really good year hitting the baseball, he's going not going to help the team in OBP in 2015.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I guess I should have clarified that Castro isn't likely to help team OBP because he hates walks.

 

...despite his high OBP, especially for his position. This caused me to ask myself who the opposite of Dusty Baker would be?

 

Yes, because his career BB% is still 5.2%. Meaning his OBP is almost entirely dependent on a high BABIP. Like I said, if he maintains his significant jump in career high LD% and HR/FB% from 2014 because he turned some corner in development, great. If it turns out he was just having a one off really good year hitting the baseball, he's going not going to help the team in OBP in 2015.

 

If you are going to be concerned with one-off years, 2013, at age 23, is the example. (.290 BABIP, .284 OBP). The rest of his career has been amazingly consistent in both arenas. Any player can suddenly have a stinker of a BABIP in any given season, but Castro has established his in over 3000 PA to be .325 to go with a .325 OBP. He is good at getting on base.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I guess I should have clarified that Castro isn't likely to help team OBP because he hates walks.

 

...despite his high OBP, especially for his position. This caused me to ask myself who the opposite of Dusty Baker would be?

 

Yes, because his career BB% is still 5.2%. Meaning his OBP is almost entirely dependent on a high BABIP. Like I said, if he maintains his significant jump in career high LD% and HR/FB% from 2014 because he turned some corner in development, great. If it turns out he was just having a one off really good year hitting the baseball, he's going not going to help the team in OBP in 2015.

 

If you are going to be concerned with one-off years, 2013, at age 23, is the example. (.290 BABIP, .284 OBP). The rest of his career has been amazingly consistent in both arenas. Any player can suddenly have a stinker of a BABIP in any given season, but Castro has established his in over 3000 PA to be .325 to go with a .325 OBP. He is good at getting on base.

 

I also don't think it is unreasonable to observe or expect increases in LD% or HR/FB% as he starts to enter his late 20s. He also had a career high in walk rate last year...

[Cubswin11]

Maddon was in attendance for Baez's games over the weekend

 

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/107425988/cubs-manager-joe-maddon-watches-javier-baez-play-in-puerto-rico

[Guest]

i saw maddon tweet a picture from the stadium in puerto rico and i figured he must've been visiting javy

[Tracer Bullet]

I [expletive] love Maddon