MLEs for Iowa Prospects

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

With all the lurkers coming out of the woodwork recently, I thought it would be interesting to pass along some results of being bored at work. I wanted to figure out how our top prospects seasons at Iowa compared to the majors, but I couldn't find a good MLE calculator online, so I built one following Dan Szymborski and then plugged the output of that into a version of Wahoo's On First WAR calculator to get an idea of what their seasons looked like (note that these are not projections, just the MLE of their current season at Iowa):

 

Alcantara (with slightly above average CF defense): .278/.318/.462/.780; 5.6 BB%, 25.6 K%, 3.6 WAR

This seems pretty reasonable, and in line with what he's done so far. Maybe a touch optimistic on the power.

 

Baez (with average 2B defense): .234/.283/.438/.721; 6.5 BB%, 34.1 K%, 1.9 WAR

This is the MLE of his whole season, so building in an adjustment period to the majors (today's game aside). You can equally well extrapolate his July and arrive at 4.7 WAR.

 

Soler (with slightly above average RF defense): .257/.344/.593/.938; 11.7 BB%, 23.0 K%, 5.5 WAR

Bryant (with below average 3B defense): .291/.369/.571/.940; 11.0 BB%, 31.4 K%, 5.0 WAR

These two seem crazy optimistic, although I again want to note that this is not a projection. Instead, I would look at it as yet another sign of how crazy of a season these two have had. There's reasons for both of them to struggle in the future (notably small sample size for Soler* and strikeouts for Bryant) but it's fun to dream on how good these two could be, quickly.

 

Side note: I was concerned that these numbers were too high, so I also ran Vitters (-2.7 WAR) and Jackson (-2.0 WAR). Phew.

 

*In the course of loading the data, I noticed Soler only has a .286 BABIP at Iowa, so if anything he may be due for some positive regression, which may be the most insane thing about his Iowa campaign!

[SouthSideRyan]

lol those Soler and Bryant lines. I WANT THEM NOW YOU BASTARDS

[Productive Outs]

Good stuff.

 

People that are smarter than me: what kind of BABIP would Bryant have to have to sustain a .291 average with a 31.4 K%?

[treebird]

lol those Soler and Bryant lines. I WANT THEM NOW YOU BASTARDS

 

five nl players are ops'ing over .900. selig should force the cubs to bring up soler and bryant today in the interest of increasing league-wide offense.

[davell]

Good stuff and Welcome! If you're working with Dateline though, I think that dude's gone.

[CubInOK]

The board needs more posts and posters like this. Welcome.

[Guest]

Good stuff.

 

People that are smarter than me: what kind of BABIP would Bryant have to have to sustain a .291 average with a 31.4 K%?

 

Depends on how many home runs. Using 30 HR and 600 AB, he'd need about a .380 BABIP.

[George Hayduke]

Good stuff, welcome!

[Banedon]

http://i.imgur.com/vdms2Vo.gif

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

hahahaha, he came!

[treebird]

hahahaha, he came!

 

sounds like my ex-wife

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

we still need Janet Snakehole

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjhLt0Fw6Pc

[Guest]

i'm loving all these noobs and lurkers contributing seriously

 

sweet post

[Aaron_Kennelly]

They said you were too dangerous for this board. Turns out they were right... and wrong.

 

Nice post. I am really looking forward to the PECOTA projections for next year. I have a feeling they are going to look nice, and we will see a bunch of articles saying, "maybe the Cubs can compete this year."

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Those are fun and I love the post, but it's worth remembering that Bryant's are based on BABIPing six-thousand, and Soler's are an awfully small sample.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Those are fun and I love the post, but it's worth remembering that Bryant's are based on BABIPing six-thousand, and Soler's are an awfully small sample.

http://i.imgur.com/s8JqxEq.gif

[Janelle-Alexis]

we still need Janet Snakehole

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjhLt0Fw6Pc

http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo1_250.gif

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo2_250.gif

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo3_250.gif

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo4_250.gif

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo5_250.gif

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_meaai1HGKm1ryanbvo6_250.gif

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

Those are fun and I love the post, but it's worth remembering that Bryant's are based on BABIPing six-thousand, and Soler's are an awfully small sample.

 

Stealing this from the minor league thread:

 

Bryant before the break: 30.3 K%, 12.1 BB%, 1.105 OPS

After the break: 23.7 K%, 15.5 BB%, 1.113 OPS

 

If he can keep his strikeout rate in the low to mid 20's I see no reason he can't be a fairly immediate 3ish WAR player, even with some BABIP regression.

 

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

Also, because I feel obligated to post a P&R gif, my reaction to Bryant having a high BABIP:

 

http://i.imgur.com/tKWbnnS.gif

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

 

Minorleaguecentral.com, but don't fall into the trap of thinking LD% is worth looking at.

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

 

Minorleaguecentral.com, but don't fall into the trap of thinking LD% is worth looking at.

 

Minor league LD% or LD% in general?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

 

Minorleaguecentral.com, but don't fall into the trap of thinking LD% is worth looking at.

 

Minor league LD% or LD% in general?

 

In general.

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

 

Minorleaguecentral.com, but don't fall into the trap of thinking LD% is worth looking at.

 

Minor league LD% or LD% in general?

 

In general.

 

I'll bite. Why not? Obviously LD% + .120 is very 2007, but there's still some useful information there.

[Guest]

with all the crazy new data they're going to have, i wonder if batted ball info won't be getting way more reliable

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On a side note, does anyone know where to find minor league LD%?

 

Minorleaguecentral.com, but don't fall into the trap of thinking LD% is worth looking at.

 

Minor league LD% or LD% in general?

 

In general.

 

I'll bite. Why not? Obviously LD% + .120 is very 2007, but there's still some useful information there.

 

It has very little year-to-year correlation, i.e. it's mostly variance and not skill.