Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-18-14

[CubsWin]

Is it a possibility that Paniagua sticks as a starter or has that ship sailed?

It's a possibility now that he's actually in the country and pitching well. But he needs to move quickly.

When does he get exposed to the Rule 5 draft? Do the 2 years he spent in the DSL with the D-Backs count? This is 3rd year in the Cubs organization...

[Little Slide Rooter]

1. Bryant

2. Soler

3. Baez

4. Alcantara

5. Schwarber

6. Tseng

7. Almora

8. Edwards

9. Vizcaino

10. Torres

 

Really debated 9 and 10; also considered Hendricks and Johnson.

this is about how i see it, but i probably swap in Hendricks for Arodys, and maybe even move him up a few spots, too

 

I have to think that Baez' age, level, and position give him a free ride in the top 2, maybe even 1, for another year.

[JonJayCutler]

I have to think that Baez' age, level, and position give him a free ride in the top 2, maybe even 1, for another year.

 

You had me until the "maybe even 1" part.

[weis21]

1. Bryant

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Schwarber

5. Alcantara

6. Edwards

7. Tseng

8. Almora

9. Johnson

10. Rivero

 

Honorable mention: Bruno, Torres, Vizcaino, Hendricks, Black, the rest of the KC rotation

This is mine except flip Almora and Johnson. I would put Hendrix, Vizcaino, and Bruno 11-13.

 

 

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[The-Kris-Bryant]

I love Schwarber as much as the next guy, but Alcantara is a guy who can play short or second and has an ops in excess of 800 in each of the last two years as a 21 and 22 year old in AA and AAA, respectively.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I love Schwarber as much as the next guy, but Alcantara is a guy who can play short or second and has an ops in excess of 800 in each of the last two years as a 21 and 22 year old in AA and AAA, respectively.

 

With a high K-rate and meh OBP. He's putting up that OPS in the worst way possible.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Even if he hits his career line in the majors, that's a fantastic offensive MIF.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even if he hits his career line in the majors, that's a fantastic offensive MIF.

 

The majors are somewhat notable for, surprisingly, being harder to hit in than the minors.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

And his line would be worse than his Hi A line.

 

 

 

And his Double A line.

 

 

 

And his Triple A line.

[Guest]

Alcantara's last 33 games: 132 PA, .297/.363/.576/.939, 13 BB, 27 K

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Alcantara's last 33 games: 132 PA, .297/.363/.576/.939, 13 BB, 27 K

 

Were the games before the last 33 retroactively changed to exhibitions? That'd be odd.

 

J/K, that's encouraging. He's been better.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Also, dammit Javy, this day was going so well.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Alcantara's last 33 games: 132 PA, .297/.363/.576/.939, 13 BB, 27 K

 

Were the games before the last 33 retroactively changed to exhibitions? That'd be odd.

 

J/K, that's encouraging. He's been better.

Yup. I think Schwarber has a chance to be a wonderful offensive bat in the mold of a Nick Johnson (when he was healthy) or Sean Casey or Wally Joyner type 'professional hitter' type guy but I like to see that translate to the high minors first. That being said, I think he and Soler are our most promising prospects in that style. 2014 Rizzo too.

[Guest]

Jeffrey Baez batting third in Boise's first game after Schwarber was promoted.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

It's encouraging that the consensus here still pretty much ranks Javy as the #2 prospect.

 

Honest question, though: is there something about his development path that makes his 26% career K rate less concerning than Olt's 26% minor league K rate or Jackson's 28% minor league K rate? Is it just because he's younger than those two were when they reached AAA that we shouldn't be as alarmed about his strikeout levels? I'm not writing Baez off by any means, but it feels like in past years, people have essentially given up on prospects because of K rates in a similar range as his.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Younger and being SS gives him more margin for sucking.

[Gilby]

It's encouraging that the consensus here still pretty much ranks Javy as the #2 prospect.

 

Honest question, though: is there something about his development path that makes his 26% career K rate less concerning than Olt's 26% minor league K rate or Jackson's 28% minor league K rate? Is it just because he's younger than those two were when they reached AAA that we shouldn't be as alarmed about his strikeout levels? I'm not writing Baez off by any means, but it feels like in past years, people have essentially given up on prospects because of K rates in a similar range as his.

 

What he did last year at AA was incredible - way more impressive than anything Olt or Jackson ever did given the age, position, etc. It has rightfully earned him some leeway. Also, I'm not sure where he compares now, but on opening day he was the youngest player in the PCL.

 

However, there is no doubt what he's doing right now is alarming and I think most people have some level of concern.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Fair enough. I just miss stupidly awesome Javy. I hope that guy shows back up soon.

[XZero771679666304]

 

However, there is no doubt what he's doing right now is alarming and I think most people have some level of concern.

 

No doubt. But he is quite young, especially for his level. Given how aggressive his approach is, I think the struggle he has gone through this year has been one that he was going to have to experience. At some point, pitchers were going to start using his aggression against him.

 

Javy never making the adjustment and flaming out is a definite possibility. But as young as he is, it's far too early to say that is what we're seeing right now (though it may be; only time will tell). I still have confidence he will become a first division player.

[Guest]

Baez's incredible bat speed and (relatively) shorter height give him fewer 'holes' to exploit too. Theoretically Baez could have a great strikeout rate if his patience, discipline, and approach all clicked perfectly. That's not true of Olt, Jackson, or even Bryant, with their size and swings.

[Thrilho]

1. Bryant

2. Baez

3. Schwarber

4. Soler

5. Alcantara

 

6. Almora

7. Edwards

8. Tseng

9. Johnson

10. Rivero

 

 

Schwarber ahead of Soler because Schwarber showed that same good approach in college, but has shown more in game power. Soler was in the FSL, but the home runs Schwarber has hit so far and many that he hit in college would go out of any park. The two other huge factors for Schwarber are his low college K rate and left handedness. Also, jury is out on Soler's injury profile. Defense is definitely Soler, but I'd guess Schwarber shaves at least 20 lbs in the offseason.

 

Baez #2 because it was only last year he did this same thing he's doing now and came back to destroy the league, along with steadily improving his K and walk rates. 37 HRs at 20 years old. He's super young and he's a short stop in most other organizations.

 

Big on Alcantara and wish I could rate him higher. He showed last year that he's got the eye to walk, and once you've shown it over the course of a year I have confidence it can come back. After his 2 tonight he's got 4 in his last 5 games. K rate is the main reason he's this low, but that has trended down the whole year and he's at 14% in his last 10. I'm rooting for him as the future CF.

 

Edwards over Tseng because Edwards has been dominant, and he still hasn't had a major injury. He's just set back, so needs time to build back up. Tseng is still 19 with plenty of TINSTAAP and hasn't torn up a league like Edwards did.

 

Almora ahead of both still because he's not a pitcher. He's suuuuucked, but is a very young top notch CF with contact ability and showed power last year, and is hitting in the FSL. He's way behind Alcantara though.

[Thrilho]

One other reason for the high Schwarber ranking: I like his swing. It's very short and seems to jive with a future plus hit tool.

[CubsWin]

Is it a possibility that Paniagua sticks as a starter or has that ship sailed?

It's a possibility now that he's actually in the country and pitching well. But he needs to move quickly.

When does he get exposed to the Rule 5 draft? Do the 2 years he spent in the DSL with the D-Backs count? This is 3rd year in the Cubs organization...

If I remember correctly, the previous contract he signed with the D-Backs was nullified and his clock restarted when he signed with the Cubs as a 22-year-old. If that's correct, then according to AZ Phil's excellent explanation of Rule 5 eligibility, Paniagua can be selected in the Rule 5 draft after the 2015 season. FWIW, AZ Phil says he's not eligible to be taken this year, so 2015 is the worst case scenario.

 

So, if he continues to perform, he'll likely be promoted to Daytona fairly soon. Again depending on performance, he would presumably start 2015 in AA. That should give the Cubs enough time to determine whether to place him on the 40-man heading into '16.

[mul21]

Baez's incredible bat speed and (relatively) shorter height give him fewer 'holes' to exploit too. Theoretically Baez could have a great strikeout rate if his patience, discipline, and approach all clicked perfectly. That's not true of Olt, Jackson, or even Bryant, with their size and swings.

 

That combined with the fact that there's a very clear line at each of the levels he's been at where he figured it out and the numbers were much different from that point forward. When he gets to the bigs, I'm pretty much expecting 2 months of suck before he starts putting up decent numbers.