2014 Cubs Pick Discussion

[UK1679666180]

More on Steele:

 

 

 

Position: LHP

Height: 6-2

Weight: 165

Bats/Throws: L-L

Birthdate: July 11, 1995

High School: George County

City, State: Lucedale, Miss.

Travel Team: Mississippi Prospects

Commitment: Southern Mississippi

Projected Draft Round: 2-3

 

Earlier in the week we focused on fast-rising Alabama high school lefthander Cody Reed and his incredible strikeout numbers. Yet, Reed might not even be the fasting rising prep southpaw in the South. Mississippi’s Justin Steele had an even lower profile entering the spring and has likely climbed ahead of Reed on many draft lists.

 

Steele pitched in only one Perfect Game event during his career, the 2012 18u WWBA National Championship following his sophomore year at George County High School. Throwing for the Mississippi Prospects Scout Team, Steele threw in the mid-80’s, touching 87 mph with a soft 66 mph curveball.

 

After a strong high school season as a junior (7-3, 1.94, 61 innings pitched, 98 strikeouts), Steele only participated in one national level event last summer, the East Coast Professional Showcase.

 

Any time one is scouting a high level showcase, especially one late in the summer such as the East Coast Pro, and a player who you’ve never heard of takes the mound or comes to bat, you bear down a bit harder to ensure your first impression is as accurate as possible.

 

Steele’s three inning performance in Syracuse, N.Y. that day was one of the more perplexing that I saw all summer and probably left plenty of other scouts confused as well.

 

Steele has a slender, loose body and a loose, whippy arm action with a slightly lower release point than most pitchers. In his first inning of work Steele popped a couple of 92's and 93’s with a very lively running fastball and quickly got everyone’s attention. He also threw some 86-87 mph fastballs that left one figuring out if it was a firm changeup or a soft two-seamer, despite the fact that his low-90s fastball had plenty of life. The low-90s fastball also had more effort to it than the mid-80s variety.

 

In Steele’s second inning he pitched exclusively at 84-87 mph with no high-end velocity readings. Now things were starting to get even more confusing.

 

The same thing was happening with Steele’s breaking ball. It varied between 72 and 82 mph, hitting most of the points in between with no discernable pattern or clear intent.

 

In the third inning Steele unleashed a couple more of the tantalizing low-90s fastballs and essentially duplicated his first inning performance. Here is my last line of my notes on Steele from that performance:

 

I really don't know what I saw on the whole but I know he did throw 93 a couple of times and had a fast arm and a below average CB and was wild.

 

Whatever happened that day, Steele has not only been extremely consistent this spring but has moved his stuff up another level. He threw two no-hitters this spring during a stretch when he struck out 17, 16, 16 and 15 hitters in successive starts and went 5-1, 0.98 overall in 41 innings, with 92 strikeouts and only 12 walks. He also dominated fellow top prospect and PG All-American Ti’Quan Forbes in a heavily scouted matchup between their two respective teams. His fastball has been steady in the 92-93 mph range and has touched 95-96 mph at times. Steele’s curveball has also improved, especially his feel for locating the pitch, and he has shown a promising changeup at times.

 

One potential drawback with teams and the draft is Steele’s short resume, starting with his almost non-existent summer and fall history and continuing through his throwing 41 innings this year after his high school team unexpectedly lost in the first round of the state playoffs. Despite that, he could be a surprisingly high pick for a team that saw him enough and values strong armed high school pitchers.

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: McLeod didn't seem optimistic about signing 23rd rd pick Isiah Gilliam. Called him a summer follow & said it'll help build a relationship

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: I'll talk @WhiteSox @Cubs & @MLBDraft w/@BarryRozner & @MattAbbatacola on the @HitandRun670 show on @670TheScore in Chicago at 10:40 am CT.

[UK1679666180]

Sands:

 

Carson Sands, lhp, North Florida Christian HS

L-L, 6-4/210, Tallahassee, Fla.

College Commitment: Florida State

 

Like catcher J.J. Schwarz above, Sands has benefited from having another high level prospect on his North Florida Christian team in outfielder Matt Railey. Even if Railey may have surpassed Sands as a prospect, as some scouts believe, the big, strong lefthander has raised his draft stock significantly this spring. His prototype 6-foot-4, 210-pound pitcher’s build has matured and got stronger and Sands has also smoothed out his delivery over the last year. His fastball, which was mostly 89-91 mph last summer, is now topping out at 94 mph and his hard curveball has gained power and depth. Sands record is 10-1, 0.65 on the spring, with 95 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched. Interestingly, Sands is in his fifth year of varsity baseball at North Florida Christian, having played as an eighth grader, and now has a 41-9, 1.18 record in 291 high school innings, with an eye opening 448 strikeouts

.

[Guest]

Thanks, Ping!

[UK1679666180]

Norwood:

 

James Norwood, rhp, St. Louis University

R-R, 6-2/200, New York, N.Y.

Previously Drafted: Never

 

Coming out of high school Norwood showed a strong arm, but it was while at St. Louis that he truly developed into a pro prospect. With a strong 6-foot-2 frame and a fast arm, the New York native is capable of running his fastball up to 96-97 mph. As good as the velocity is, the arm side life he generates is even better. What will help dictate exactly where he will fall will be the development of his curveball and changeup as they are a bit inconsistent throughout an outing. However, when he stays on top of his curveball it's an above average offering working in the upper-70s with late break and nice depth.

[UK1679666180]

Rusin. I mean Thorpe:

 

Tommy Thorpe, lhp, University of Oregon (JR)

L-L, 6-0/195, Vancouver, Wash.

Previously Drafted: Never

 

Thorpe has enjoyed a dominant junior season as the Friday starter at Oregon, posting a 10-4, 2.20 record with 29 walks and team-high 86 strikeouts in 98 innings. He also excelled in a starting role for the Ducks as a sophomore (7-5, 2.16, 104 IP, 39 BB/87 SO), which led to a cameo appearance with USA Baseball’s college-national team, and as a set-up man as a freshman (2-0, 2.11, 43 IP, 20 BB/48 SO). Thorpe will always have to fight the stigma of being an under-sized lefthander with below-average raw stuff, but there is no overlooking Thorpe’s ability to throw three pitches for strikes, even if his fastball ranges from 85-89 mph. His best secondary pitch is his circle changeup. He has an excellent feel for his craft and normally finds a way to win.

[UK1679666180]

Zagunis:

 

. Mark Zagunis, c, Virginia Tech (JR)

R-R, 6-0/210, Delran, N.J.

Previously Drafted: Never

 

Catchers with plus speed and athleticism don’t come around frequently so it’s easy to understand scouts’ interest in Zagunis. While his power hasn’t been quite as prolific in 2014 as we’ve seen in the past, he is still the same strongly built athlete with a solid hit tool. Despite his 210-pound frame, Zagunis is a a 6.7 runner in the 60-yard dash and shows above average agility behind the dish. He’s hit at every level, and if you buy into the hit tool, you could project him as a potential everyday catcher in the big leagues. He’s also a capable outfielder who can steal bases.

 

My least fav. pick of the draft:

[UK1679666180]

Brink:

 

 

 

The 2013 season saw Brink light up radar guns coming out of the Fresno State bullpen as a sophomore and his move to the Friday night starter's role in 2014 came with much anticipation and lofty expectations. He hasn't been able to replicate the same high level stuff and maintain it over long starts, prompting a debate about where organizations can get the most value out of him. Some believe that Brink's diminished stuff in a starter's role is still the more attractive option, while others think that his highest value is as a power armed reliever who can rely on a mid-90s fastball in short bursts rather than working with average velocity taking the ball every fifth day. He has effectively prevented runs from scoring in his 79 innings thus far, though his 58 strikeouts as compared to 41 walks are is proof enough that he needs to continue to work on his control. Brink came into the season as a potential first rounder based on what he showed last spring and summer, and while his stock has fallen since then, scouts still like his arm and see plenty of future potential.

[davell]

http://ccdt.webs.com/

 

In case some missed it at the bottom of the page, this is the preeminent place to see Cubs signing info. Yagyu, from PSD, created this and I asked him if I could post it here as well.

 

Sounds like Schwarber is in obviously. Zagunis is, Sands too.

 

Based on Twitter, sounds like Norwood(7th) is in. Mitchell is in(13th). Griggs is in.(12th)

 

With plenty of others sounding positive as well.

[Clem Fandango]

Diamond Johnson, huh? Better than being named Pierce Johnson I suppose.

[Guest]

Fangraphs[/url]"]Jake Stinnett will be pursing a career with the Chicago Cubs.

 

The University of Maryland righthander was drafted 45th overall by Theo Epstein and Company on Thursday. A power arm who helped pitch the Terrapins to this week’s Super Regional, Stinnett will be a senior sign. A year ago he declined to ink a contract with the Pirates after being taken in the 29th round.

 

Stinnett was primarily a position player his first two years at Maryland. After not playing much as a sophomore, he turned his full attention to the mound. The transition went well. A solid closer as a junior, he blossomed as a starter this season.

 

Stinnett has a firm fastball – he tops out at 97 – but learning to pitch and not just throw is what upped his draft stock.

 

“I’m glad the velocity is there, but a bigger part of my game is command and throwing strikes,” said the Vista, California native. “Velocity is a good thing to have but I don’t consider it the most important factor for me.

 

“I throw both two-and four-seam fastballs. My two-seam moves a lot – it sinks a lot – so I have to throw it at the right times. It’s a big pitch if I’m trying to get a ground out. If I want to paint a pitch on the outer black, I’ll throw a four-seamer.”

 

Stinnett will need to fine-tune his secondary offerings in order to succeed as a starter in pro ball. His slider is serviceable – at times it’s plus – and his changeup is a work in progress.

 

“My slider is my second-best pitch,” said Stinnett. “It was more of a curveball to start, and it’s still not really a true slider. It’s more of a slurve. It doesn’t quite have the velocity of a true slider, or the same horizontal tilt. My third pitch is a four-seam circle changeup. It’s good at times, but not as consistent as my other pitches so I don’t use it as much. I haven’t really needed to, although I’ll definitely have to develop it down the road.”

[davell]

Here's my wish list, no idea if its reasonable or not.....

 

Entire top 10 picks obviously

P Brink

P Griggs

3B Mitchell

2B Young

P Null

3B Martarano

P Zayas

1 of either C, Cantu or Adams or 1 of OF, Gilliam or Peters

2 of P, Bass, Willis, and Deppermann(preferred)

 

I'm sure we'll sign the college Seniors and wind up with 25-28 total.

[Guest]

Watched Stinnett pitch a bit yesterday and holy hell are his feet huge.

[A New Era]

Watched Stinnett pitch a bit yesterday and holy hell are his feet huge.

 

You know what they say about guys with huge feet!

 

they make good pitchers.

[craig]

Here's my wish list, no idea if its reasonable or not.....

 

Entire top 10 picks obviously

P Brink

P Griggs

3B Mitchell

2B Young

P Null

3B Martarano

P Zayas

1 of either C, Cantu or Adams or 1 of OF, Gilliam or Peters

2 of P, Bass, Willis, and Deppermann(preferred)

 

I'm sure we'll sign the college Seniors and wind up with 25-28 total.

 

Zero is my over-under for 3rd day overslots. I doubt they have any discretionary overslot money to spend on 3rd-day guys.

 

1. Mitchell, Griggs, Martarano, and a lot of the college junior/seniors will sign for slot, presumably.

2. Presumably Brink is one college junior who won't.

3. I'm hoping one or two of the HS picks will sign for slot $100K plus college scholarship. I hope that but don't expect that, and if one or two do take it, it's hard to guess which might or why.

 

I'm pretty sure they have their budget well detailed as they work through day 2. Pretty certain that they exhausted it.

*My expectation is that Cease is too high as is. If he doesn't move, he'll go unsigned. But given his poor situation, needing to lose his freshman year to elbow, I imagine he'll compromise and sign. If he doesn't, the overslot assigned to him will get reallocated to a couple Day 3 targets.

[davell]

McLeod's comments on Cease(Sands and Steele too) very much imply we're expecting them all to sign. I DO think that some of these HS kids we took late are there in case we miss on Cease. But, I do kind of expect one of them to sign, hoping for 2. Figuring we'll have the 5% money mostly go towards one of them, the rest going to Brink.

 

The key is whether or not the savings on our early rounders is completely taken up by the 4-6 round guys. That's where I think it's possible to come up with another signing from the HS late rounders. Especially reading Cease's Twitter feed.

[craig]

Yeah, I hope you're right. I expect that they have informal agreement numbers with both Sands and Steele, and are prepared to pay that. My thinking is that they got a number from Cease, that they aren't prepared or probably able to reach that even with the 5%, but that they are confident that he wants to sign, and that they can come close enough so that he will. Combined with the argument they'll make about what care and rehab they'll provide; and the observation that with his freshman year lost and his sophomore year a rehab year, he may not really have a great window for becoming a top-ten pick as a junior either. So I expect McLeod figures Cease will end up signing rather than going back to school. But yeah, my guess is that it will take all of the available moneys, including the 5%, to get the top 10.

 

Note: it wouldn't shock me, really, if they go somewhat overslot on Norwood, too. BA's list had Norwood at 79, only two spots behind Cease. While he's a college junior, he's only 20 and won't turn 21 till Christmas Eve. Even without leverage, a senior taken in rounds 1-3 can make a lot more than $201, and I'm sure he and agent could envision him earning a spot in the 3rd round or higher if given another chance. Perhaps he lasted till the 7th because teams knew he wasn't signing for 5th/6th/7th round money, and was demanding 4th-round-or-better cash?

 

I predict we'll be disappointed by how much the Cubs offer to Schwarber and Stinnett. It wouldn't surprise me if neither are more than 20% under slot.

 

Hope I'm wrong, that we do save heaps on those guys, that Cease comes in easy, and Sands/Steele/Norwood aren't really all that pricey, and they end up with many hundreds of thousands to spend on overslot Day 3 guys. There are certainly some interesting projectable prospects selected on Day 3.

[Guest]

@ProfessorParks: I thought it was fantastic. RT @OhTheHorror_13 @ProfessorParks if you had to issue a grade, how well/not well did the cubs draft this year?

[davell]

Craig, you may be right on the Schwarber bonus. My personal over/under is 3.3. Over and I'm slightly disappointed. For Stinnett, it's 850k.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Perversely, the less we can underslot Schwarber, the happier I am because the more it implies he's higher perceived inside the game than in the punditry.

[craig]

Parks, "fantastic", Manual "killing it".

 

I'll take the over on both of those $3.3 and $0.85, Dave. Will be fun to see it play out. I'll be surprised if they go below $4/$1.

 

Kyle, I think it's exactly because the Cubs evaluated Schwarber/Stinnett as worthy that they won't get subslotted that much.

[Guest]

Parks, "fantastic", Manual "killing it".

 

I'll take the over on both of those $3.3 and $0.85, Dave. Will be fun to see it play out. I'll be surprised if they go below $4/$1.

 

Kyle, I think it's exactly because the Cubs evaluated Schwarber/Stinnett as worthy that they won't get subslotted that much.

Craig,

 

I think it depends on if they had a deal worked out in advance of the draft - particularly with Schwarber. If they were telling him that they could go with him or Conforto and would pick whomever took the lowest bonus, they could have gotten him for under the $3.3M.

 

We'll just have to see how it plays out.

[Guest]

Sounds like Schwarber is headed to Chicago tomorrow. Got to imagine that's for a physical and to sign his contract.

 

I'm going with $3.5 million.

[A New Era]

What is slot, about 4.2 mil? I think the best case scenerio is the get him for 3.0 and are able to sign one more highly rated guy they grabbed on day 3. The likely scenerio is as you have mentioned probably somewhat of an underslot and they will still get Cease, Sands, and Steele. And everyone in rounds 1-10 actually.

 

I don't know if having to pay Schwarber 3.5 mil or so means he automatically now so much more talented than if he agreed to 3.0 mil.