Arrieta: Consider yourself lucky he lets you cheer for him

[fromthestretch]

GRB trying to say that Arrieta is using pine tar or some other substance...

 

lol - pot. kettle. black.

 

Rosenthal is pitching with a large spot on the bill of his cap right now.

[ARCubsFan]

GRB trying to say that Arrieta is using pine tar or some other substance...

 

lol - pot. kettle. black.

 

Rosenthal is pitching with a large spot on the bill of his cap right now.

That gif is from last year lol

[Little Slide Rooter]

As looked down upon as W's and ERA are in this advanced stats driven era, it wouldn't surprise me if alot of the Cy Young voters mark out over the 21 wins and sub 2.00 ERA combo. Could be wrong, but I think the last guy to put that together was Clemens in 1990. Maddux and Pedro each came close a few times, but no cigar.

 

And the fact that he's been inhuman for the second half of the season won't hurt his chances.

[Guest]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[JonJayCutler]

GRB trying to say that Arrieta is using pine tar or some other substance...

 

 

They feel so [expletive] threatened by us. I love it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

GRB trying to say that Arrieta is using pine tar or some other substance...

 

 

They feel so [expletive] threatened by us. I love it.

 

It's called Bosio-dust. It's like Pixie-dust but better.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

 

how many bad innings will it take now?

[Banedon]

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

 

how many bad innings will it take now?

 

But I was told that Kyle isn't negative and doesn't like hyperbole.

 

(In this case it wasn't all that unreasonable of an opinion, but still.....)

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, to be fair to Kyle, we also had this from about two weeks later:

 

Arrieta has been good up until this point because of unsustainable strikeout numbers and a rapid grounder spike despite his pitches not moving differently. His strikeout numbers, according to looking strike %, swinging strike %, and first pitch strike %, correlate to about a 7.7 K/9. And after factoring in zone %, his BB/9 correlates to about a 3.7 BB/9. His 53% grounder number is high because he is getting more grounders on his fastball and on his curveball. Remember, though, those pitches aren't moving differently and the velocity is basically the same. So the grounders aren't a result of his "stuff" changing. Even though he isn't throwing the fastball in a specific location that is different from previous years, he is throwing the curve at a higher rate down in the zone now. That's probably why he is getting more grounders on the pitch. However, the sample is small and after one or two starts, those numbers potentially normalize.

 

Arrieta's current peripherals suggest that 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and throw in a HR/9 of 0.8 by years end. Those numbers equal about a 3.9 FIP, which is on the cusp of league average.

 

Bosio hasn't really done much to Arrieta because his pitches aren't much different. I don't know where Brett is getting his sinker usage, but Pitch f/x showed that Arrieta's spike in sinkers isn't a result of Bosio. He was throwing more sinkers in 2012 than he is now by about 5%. He's only thrown the cutter 21 times this season, and his grounder increase aren't a result because of that.

 

There is nothing bad about a 3.9 FIP pitcher in the back end of a rotation, but that's not the type of pitcher we want starting in a playoff series.

 

And North is cool as hell. Everyone gets it wrong sometimes.

[Banedon]

http://ak-hdl.buzzfed.com/static/2014-03/enhanced/webdr06/11/8/anigif_enhanced-9190-1394541507-17.gif

[TruffleShuffle]

Well, to be fair to Kyle

 

why?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

 

how many bad innings will it take now?

 

But I was told that Kyle isn't negative and doesn't like hyperbole.

 

(In this case it wasn't all that unreasonable of an opinion, but still.....)

 

If you really want to go this route, dig up the Feldman for Strop/Arrieta trade thread. I liked the idea of trading for MLBers instead of prospects, but those two sure sucked.

 

I've accepted that pitchers are a mysterious unknowable force of parity and weirdness.

[sneakypower]

I've accepted that pitchers are a mysterious unknowable force of parity and weirdness.

my biggest miss i can recall was preferring Gray to Bryant, but the 2014 Elbow Holocaust coupled with Arrieta's 2 FIP summer kind of snapped me out of that mindset entirely

[Guest]

I wanted to sign Pujols. Yeah, that was a miss.

[Brian]

 

Those final numbers and he wasn't an all star

[Guest]

Has a Cy Young winner ever not made the all-star team?

[ARCubsFan]

Has a Cy Young winner ever not made the all-star team?

Kluber last year

[Tracer Bullet]

Has a Cy Young winner ever not made the all-star team?

Kluber last year

Jake this year

[seanimal]

i dunno, i just feel like every time i try to make the case for arietta, grienke has the trump card. jake driving his era to within flinching distance of grienke's is really impressive, but grienke had a sub-2 era all year. blah blah era sucks, but it's a good representation of this story: jake's second half was historic, but grienke did what he did all year long. he's the cy young

 

and that in no way diminishes arietta's amazing run over these last two seasons. getting to see him win games 20 and 21 in person will be among my fondest moments as a fan

[TruffleShuffle]

Best second half ERA in major league history. Not bad.

[rocket]

i dunno, i just feel like every time i try to make the case for arietta, grienke has the trump card. jake driving his era to within flinching distance of grienke's is really impressive, but grienke had a sub-2 era all year. blah blah era sucks, but it's a good representation of this story: jake's second half was historic, but grienke did what he did all year long. he's the cy young

 

and that in no way diminishes arietta's amazing run over these last two seasons. getting to see him win games 20 and 21 in person will be among my fondest moments as a fan

 

my brain says yes but my heart says f that noise, arrieta is the cy young and it's not even close

[RammyFanny]

i dunno, i just feel like every time i try to make the case for arietta, grienke has the trump card. jake driving his era to within flinching distance of grienke's is really impressive, but grienke had a sub-2 era all year. blah blah era sucks, but it's a good representation of this story: jake's second half was historic, but grienke did what he did all year long. he's the cy young

 

and that in no way diminishes arietta's amazing run over these last two seasons. getting to see him win games 20 and 21 in person will be among my fondest moments as a fan

 

Meh, it's not THAT hard to make a case for Arrieta. ERA doesn't suck, there just better evaluation measures.

 

Arrieta beats Greinke in IP, Wins, hits/9, FIP, xFIP, K/9, fWAR, total strikeouts, Games Started, Complete Games, Complete Game Shutouts, HR rate. Their WHIPs are just about exactly he same.

 

I mean, what else does Greinke really have over him than a microscopic amount of ERA and a few less walks?

 

I guess I can see he consistency thing, but it's not like Arrieta's first half ERA of 2.6 was particularly bad, obviously. Greinke had a half over 2 as well, although still better than Arrieta's worse half.

 

I think you can make he case for Kershaw fairly easily, but for whatever reason I don't get the impression he will be that close in voting.

[Cubswin11]

i dunno, i just feel like every time i try to make the case for arietta, grienke has the trump card. jake driving his era to within flinching distance of grienke's is really impressive, but grienke had a sub-2 era all year. blah blah era sucks, but it's a good representation of this story: jake's second half was historic, but grienke did what he did all year long. he's the cy young

 

and that in no way diminishes arietta's amazing run over these last two seasons. getting to see him win games 20 and 21 in person will be among my fondest moments as a fan

Eh, their ERA's are essentially the same right now Arrieta has more wins, IP, Ks and better FIP, xFIP, and just about everything else (WHIP, HR, etc.) and kills him in fWAR. It's between Kershaw and Arrieta for me. I think Arrieta is the guy.

[Cubswin11]

Also looking at the Fangraphs pitching leaderboard, I really, really want Price next year. He's basically a left-handed Arrieta when you look at their pitch types and velos, only difference is Arrieta throws his cutter and curve more and changeup less than Price. But they are very similar in how their pitches grade.

[imb]

Jake has nearly 2 WAR on Greinke and his historic, unparalleled second half has coincided with the cubs making a huge push, getting national attention and he's going to be credited (rightfully so) with propelling their second half run. I think he's going to win it.