Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-26-14

[RammyFanny]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

[Guest]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

 

K rates?

[Guest]

Braun - 18% K%, 8% BB%

 

Longoria - 18% K%, 11% BB%

 

Bryant - 28% K%, 12% BB%

[SouthSideRyan]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

 

K rates?

 

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhut it.

 

Braun: 17.9%

Longoria: 18.1%

Bryant: 28.0% which is a full 0.5% better than Brandon Wood's age 21 season

[RammyFanny]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

 

K rates?

Braun

18% K-Rate

8% BB

 

Longoria

18% K-Rate

11% BB

 

Bryant

27% K-Rate (estimating after tonight)

12% BB

 

Edit: Ninja's ^

Edited May 27, 2014 by RammyFanny

[Cubswin11]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

 

K rates?

Braun: 17.9% K, 8.8% BB

Longoria: 18.1% K, 11.4% BB

Bryant: 28%, 11.6% bb

[RammyFanny]

lol

[XZero771679666304]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

 

K rates?

 

17.9% for Braun, 18.1% for Longoria.

 

EDIT: dammit

[CubInOK]

David never asked about walk rates, guys.

[Guest]

Hahahahaha.

[treebird]

Bryant: 28.0% which is a full 0.5% better than Brandon Wood's age 21 season

 

go straight to hell

[RammyFanny]

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140526&content_id=76968332&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_article_76968332

 

Baez article with 2 videos of great defensive plays from today.

[Guest]

Today at extended spring training: http://www.thecubreporter.com/site/cubs-extended-spring-training

 

RHRP Kyuji Fujikawa (on Cubs MLB 60-day DL - 2013 TJS rehab) started the game for the Cubs and threw a 14-pitch 1-2-3 1st inning (F-8, 6-3, K-looking). Fujikawa has thrown three times in the last six days, working one inning each time (40 pitches total - 23 strikes - 58% K), and he has retired all nine men he has faced in those 3.0 IP (4-3, F-9, P-3, K, F-8, 3-1, F-8, 6-3, K).  

[Guest]

It would be cool to see Kyuji come back and be awesome.

[Guest]

Dunston

April: .163/.212/.286/.498

May: .340/.360/.468/.848

[XZero771679666304]

Baez's almost homer double:

 

 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=33207867&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb

[Guest]

That looked like such an easy swing

[CubsWin]

That looked like such an easy swing

That's exactly what I thought. Also the pitch was a bit outside. He may be learning to wait for his pitch to really rip at it and that he can still get great results when swinging easier. That's a very high wall in Des Moines and it just missed going out.

[sneakypower]

Ryan Braun age 22 Southern League: 59 games

.303/.367/.589 15 HR's

 

Evan Longoria age 21 Southern League: 105 games

.307/.403/.528 21 HR's

 

Kris Bryant age 22 Southern League: 49 games

.337/.431/.641 14 HR's

Pat Burrell age 22 AA: 117 G

.333/.438/.631 (20.7% K)

[CubInOK]

Dunston

April: .163/.212/.286/.498

May: .340/.360/.468/.848

What's his K%?

[Guest]

Not sure if you were serious, but 6% in April, 12% in May.

[UK1679666180]

If we were willing to give Tanaka 6/120, surely we'd give it to Shark, if he pitched like an ace all year.

Born: November 1, 1988 in Itami, Hyogo, Japan (Age 25.206)

Born: January 23, 1985 in Merrillville, IN (Age 29.123)

 

1213 professional innings in Japan for Tanaka

1042 professional innings for Shark

 

Why wouldn't that matter to you? His arm has basically the same mileage.

 

Because regardless of mileage, age is still a factor. He will no doubt be effective later than many pitchers are, but age will still catch up to him. I still say pay him, but you can't completely ignore the age.

 

There's no way to try and predict whether more or less mileage with be a greater predictor of injury unless there's obvious gross abuse (look at friday night totals or Baker's tenure for that). I've always leaned towards caution before aggression.

 

The thing to look at is regression/progression of velo and stuff thru K/9, BB/9, and HBP/9, HR/9 and H/9.

 

As he develops a larger sample size, we can start to correlate numbers.

 

Normal pitcher:

 

K/9 start to regress at 25.

BB/9 start to improve around 27-28

HR/9 start off very good regress to its lowest around 27 and gradually improve as pitchers get older.

H/9 ratios generally remain flat with slight regression in the early 30s.

 

Samardzija:

K/9 peaked at 27 and has regressed the two seasons since.

BB/9 ratio improved dramatically at 27 and has improved since, so he's been on par with that.

HR/9 ratio has been his greatest improvement at 29.

H/9 ratio has improved greatly at 29.

 

The hope is that with the less tear on his arm that he can maintain where he's at for the duration of a 4 to 5 year contract, I think that's definitely possible.

 

I think a greater fear should be whether or not, his HR/9 and H/9 ratios are sustainable even before considering the regression of stuff as he gets older.

 

IMO, he's the perfect storm of lack of severe regression with velo (possibly due to lack of wear and tear/no previous injuries) and movement compared to most 29yos, the typical improvement of "pitchability" once someone gets to their prime, and unusually great and likely unsustainability of his HR/9 and H/9 ratios right now.

 

My bigger fear would be buying someone who is unlikely to come close to maintaining their current run rather than a complete lemon.

 

It's a matter of how much are you willing to overpay and accept a likely loss on $/production that likely gradually gets worse.