Samardzija trade rumors

[neely crenshaw]

If a team has a ready/near-ready arm the caliber we need, why would they trade for shark instead of just going with their guy.

I think we are looking at TOR potential guys that are at best AA, and hopefully ready sometime 2015 if not later.

 

Are we better off getting the best players possible and look to flip those for Price or the like?

It seems we need to find a team like ourselves with a lot of position players but no pitchers close..that have a need at the ML level.

 

A tough injury to a contender would help!

[Clem Fandango]

If a team has a ready/near-ready arm the caliber we need, why would they trade for shark instead of just going with their guy.

 

Whether or not that prospect is highly regarded, he still doesn't provide the team with the guarantee he'll be effective at the major league level while someone like Samardzija does.

 

Is it likely that someone like Archie Bradley develops into a productive young pitcher? Sure, but he has no track record to provide his team the peace of mind of knowing that every 5th start there's a good chance they're gonna get some good innings out of their guy. Samardzija, meanwhile, is going out there every 5th start and dominating while the other teams sit and watch what they could have in their rotation while waiting for their wunderkinds to be ready for the majors as their team struggles.

Edited April 21, 2014 by The Logan

[davell]

The Marlin here is almost definitely a joke account. The PSD Marlin is LEGIT. He's called many things right before they happened. Even Hayden Simpson-which should silence any doubters honestly. He doesn't post often, but his track record is as good or better than any beat guy we have.

 

ABTY is the one people can question. Especially since he's jumped into football now.

[mul21]

If a team has a ready/near-ready arm the caliber we need, why would they trade for shark instead of just going with their guy.

 

Whether or not that prospect is highly regarded, he still doesn't provide the team with the guarantee he'll be effective at the major league level while someone like Samardzija does.

 

Is it likely that someone like Archie Bradley develops into a productive young pitcher? Sure, but he has no track record to provide his team the peace of mind of knowing that every 5th start there's a good chance they're gonna get some good innings out of their guy. Samardzija, meanwhile, is going out there every 5th start and dominating while the other teams sit and watch what they could have in their rotation while waiting for their wunderkinds to be ready for the majors as their team struggles.

 

You mean exactly what the Cardinals did when they traded Dan Haren for Mark Mulder?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Whether or not that prospect is highly regarded, he still doesn't provide the team with the guarantee he'll be effective at the major league level while someone like Samardzija does.

 

It would take an extraordinarily dumb or desperate team to trade *that* much long-term control just for a little bit more certainty. I'm not going to say definitively such a team doesn't exist, but I'd be surprised.

[Guest]

Whether or not that prospect is highly regarded, he still doesn't provide the team with the guarantee he'll be effective at the major league level while someone like Samardzija does.

 

It would take an extraordinarily dumb or desperate team to trade *that* much long-term control just for a little bit more certainty. I'm not going to say definitively such a team doesn't exist, but I'd be surprised.

 

Just one that understands pitcher attrition and really wants to win this season. Here's BA Top 10 pitching prospects from 2000-2010:

 

Rick Ankiel

Ryan Anderson*

John Patterson

Josh Beckett*

Jon Rauch

Ben Sheets

C.C. Sabathia

Mark Prior

Juan Cruz

Jesse Foppert

Gavin Floyd

Francisco Rodriguez

Edwin Jackson

Greg Miller

Felix Hernandez

Scott Kazmir

Francisco Liriano

Justin Verlander

Matt Cain

Phil Hughes

Homer Bailey*

Andrew Miller

Joba Chamberlain

Clay Buchholz

Clayton Kershaw

David Price*

Tommy Hanson

Brett Anderson

Madison Bumgarner

Neftali Feliz

 

* Made the Top 10 twice

 

That's 30 names. 10 of those have had careers that you would not want to trade away to get a good starter for 1.5 years, a few more you can go back and forth depending on your opinion of the players involved. More importantly though, you're looking at a 50/50 odds of getting that player of Samardzija's caliber. To speak to your specific comment, it's an enormous amount of certainty, not just a little bit.

 

And that's with a Top 10 prospect in all of MLB, the odds go down sharply from there. More importantly, the names being bandied about(save for Bradley) are not Top 10 prospects. Just to cherry pick those brought up recently:

 

22. Taillon

23. Zimmer

26. Ventura

32. Sanchez

46. Glasnow

55. Stroman

64. Kingham

99. Paxton

 

It's not out of line at all to want someone from this group that's about MLB ready, plus another. Especially with Samardzija performing so well to start the year, his value has either held steady or gone up since the offseason, depending on how well you thought of him before.

[Guest]

Yeah, some random guy who claims to be an insider.

 

Is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Pitcher attrition also applies to Samardzija.

 

And if they understand pitcher attrition, they also understand that pitchers don't have much of an aging curve and can usually be pretty successful immediately on hitting the big leagues.

 

But yeah, I don't find most of that list to be out of line.

[Guest]

Whether or not that prospect is highly regarded, he still doesn't provide the team with the guarantee he'll be effective at the major league level while someone like Samardzija does.

 

It would take an extraordinarily dumb or desperate team to trade *that* much long-term control just for a little bit more certainty. I'm not going to say definitively such a team doesn't exist, but I'd be surprised.

 

Look at what one of the smarter organizations in baseball gave up for 2 months of an inferior pitcher in Matt Garza. One that at least allegedly knew had arm issues.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Look at what one of the smarter organizations in baseball gave up for 2 months of an inferior pitcher in Matt Garza. One that at least allegedly knew had arm issues.

 

Funny, I think that package proves my point.

 

The impact guy we got was in A-ball. The near-ready guys we got were fringey.

[Guest]

Look at what one of the smarter organizations in baseball gave up for 2 months of an inferior pitcher in Matt Garza. One that at least allegedly knew had arm issues.

 

Funny, I think that package proves my point.

 

The impact guy we got was in A-ball. The near-ready guys we got were fringey.

 

Not really when it's for an inferior injured pitcher with a year less of control.

 

My only point was that even the smartest teams are capable of doing all kinds of stupid in search of short term boosts in July.

[davell]

Just curious, what would people prefer in a hypothetical Shark deal? A single top 25 pitching prospect, along with a useful bullpen arm or a package of 4 non top 100 pitching prospects that are far away but mirror a Chris Archer type from when we acquired him from Tampa....

[jersey cubs fan]

a Chris Archer type from when we acquired him from Tampa....

 

Huh?

[davell]

a Chris Archer type from when we acquired him from Tampa....

 

Huh?

 

Crap, from Cleveland.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Always take quality over quantity.

[Clem Fandango]

Personally I think I'd prefer trying to get a top prospect vs. a handful of projectable prospects. We've got projectable prospects, and I know the FO wants to load the system up with arms, but I'd like for one of those arms to be someone we can anticipate being a staple of our rotation for several years rather than a guy who tiptoes the line between the bullpen and the rotation hoping he turns into a C.J. Wilson type who comes out of nowhere. You don't really want to commit someone to the rotation unless you absolutely think you have something. The bullpen tends to be a revolving door to find out if someone can perform well in relief or if a starter can have his stuff play up at the major league level so you can slot him in the backend of the rotation if you need to. I'd rather chance it on someone you know you want in the rotation vs. a handful of guys who may or may not even make it to the majors or to the rotation. Starting pitching isn't cheap and I'd feel more comfortable knowing we wouldn't need to spend excessively to fill the rotation.

 

I think you trade Shark for a top guy, and draft a pitcher this year and next. We have other players that can get us the projectable guys here and there if we really want them, IMO.

[Guest]

Always take quality over quantity.

 

Even when TINSTAAPP?

[A New Era]

I would hope we could get more than a top 25 pitching prospect. And yes I would want that. I don't think it's crazy to think we could get another fringe top 100 pitching type like a Pierce Johnson. Then a couple very young lotto tickets.

 

So in other words I'm expecting CJ Edwards + Pierce Johnson for Smardzija plus a couple decent throw ins.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Always take quality over quantity.

 

Even when TINSTAAPP?

 

Yes. This is higher on the Order of Aphorisms.

[jersey cubs fan]

Always take quality over quantity.

 

Even when TINSTAAPP?

 

Absolutely. I am all in favor in drafting hitters at the top and then loading up on pitching with quantity later on, but when it comes to trading for professional pitchers, you take the best quality you can get.

[Guest]

I was reading Dave Cameron's chat today and couldn't help but think of a potential Samardzija return when I saw these comments:

 

Comment From RK

Has your opinion of Trevor Bauer changed at all in the first month? Seem to recall you were pretty down on him (like most of us).

 

Dave Cameron: Personally, I think the most overrated players in the game are bad command/high fastball pitching prospects who rack up strikeouts by pitching out of the zone in the minors. Bauer, Archie Bradley, lots of guys fit this mold, and get a lot of hype because of velo and K numbers, but if you want to succeed in the majors, you have to throw strikes. Sometimes they learn, but it’s not as often as people think.

 

Comment From benj

So what’s the inverse of the low command/high FB pitching prospect? Soft tossing lefty junkballers? FB only zone pounders?

 

Dave Cameron: Good command guys whose out pitch is a change-up. Scout/prospect types consistently underrate change-up guys.

 

 

Comment From Minor League Pitching Prospect

Who’s the best and potentially most impactful arm currently in the minors? Is it still Archie Bradley? He’s been off to a rough start this year and is now dealing with elbow soreness. Gausman? Bauer?!?

 

Dave Cameron: I find almost all of the current crop of “top pitching prospects” overrated. Noah Syndergaard is about the only one I think is worth the hype.

[Post Count Padder]

Could be something or nothing.

 

Cubs scout Dave Littlefield was in Buffalo last night to watch Marcus Stroman‘s six no-hit innings for the Triple-A Bisons, Davidi reports. Chicago reportedly asked for both Stroman and Aaron Sanchez as part of a trade package for Jeff Samardzija in the offseason, a deal that the Jays rejected out of hand. Littlefield’s presence could indicate a continued interest on the Cubs’ behalf or, as Davidi notes, simple due diligence.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

So I guess Dave Cameron thinks Aaron Nola should go 1.1.

[A New Era]

So I guess Dave Cameron thinks Aaron Nola should go 1.1.

 

Probably not good enough for 1.1. 1.4? Now your in the conversation.

[Guest]

So I guess Dave Cameron thinks Aaron Nola should go 1.1.

 

Probably not good enough for 1.1. 1.4? Now your in the conversation.

 

Nah.