Who is the Cubs #19 Prospect?

[Guest]

The fact that he was a first-round pick isn't irrelevant.

It's irrelevant to me. Especially after 7 years in the system. How long dose he get to live on his pedigree?

plz look up how many prospects in the system had 100+ AB's and a higher ISO than Vitters.

 

 

 

 

(hint - not many)

 

(it was three)

 

(Two were Baez and Bryant)

that says more about the system Han it does about Vitters.

 

You mean the system that is widely regarded as top 2-3 in baseball largely on its power hitting talents?

I'm not going to get into a stupid argument here. In 7 season of minor league baseball he has an OPS of .786 (SLG .455), helped greatly by 1.5 seasons in the PCL. Maybe that's good enough for 19th in a highly regarded system, what do I know? But I'll stand by my post. He has no position and his number in the minors are rather pedestrian.

[SouthSideRyan]

The fact that he was a first-round pick isn't irrelevant.

It's irrelevant to me. Especially after 7 years in the system. How long dose he get to live on his pedigree?

plz look up how many prospects in the system had 100+ AB's and a higher ISO than Vitters.

 

 

 

 

 

(hint - not many)

 

(it was three)

 

(Two were Baez and Bryant)

 

lmao it was 110 at bats, who cares

 

It was .007 higher than his 2012

 

Eta: that's strictly AAA numbers, if you're including his full 2013 season then he hit for more power over a near full season in '12

[toonsterwu]

So, had some time on my hand, so I'm going to make a halfhearted argument for Willson Contreras. Halfhearted because even I have reservations about putting him this high (again, I voted for three, but not sure on order, and really, could go a bunch of ways).

 

As long as Contreras has been in our system, next year will be his age 22 season. He should start in A+, imo. Defensively, he has a good arm and throws a decent clip of runners out, particularly for a guy fairly raw to catching. He's still improving his reactions behind the plate but the raw ability is there to improve, and when you factor in how he's adjusted to catching, as of now, I think a fair argument could be made that since he's developed fairly well as a catcher (when you consider when he made the move), that it's fair to dream a bit that he will get a bit better behind the dish. Offensively, he'll never be a high average hitter. At some point, one wonders if better fastballs in the higher levels could cause him some problems as well. That said, he has some pop, and his approach at the plate is fairly solid.

 

I hesitate about him here, because that profile feels like a Henry Blanco comp could be a positive case (not best case, just a positive case), and a Henry Blanco comp for a guy in Low A really wouldn't get me excited. That said, at his age, for the position, and the with the raw ability he's shown, there's enough to think that there's a chance he could be better than that. At this stage of the system (19-23), it doesn't seem that ridiculous, in my opinion (again, reserving the right to change my vote before poll ends).

 

So, an argument for someone should come with an argument of why I might ponder said person ahead of others, so let's go -

 

Skulina/Frazier - These guys have really picked up helium in the last couple months, it seems. Maybe I missed something from instructs, so I'll acknowledge that possibility exists. That said, both guys have, at best, a mid-rotation ceiling, and unless something new is out there, neither guy is close to the polish/development of a Rob Zastryzny. They have arm strength on their side. I can see an argument for both to fall into this range, but when there's enough questions about said ceiling, which isn't that huge to begin with, I really want to see more, even from a college arm. Again, maybe I missed something from instructs, but I can't help but wonder if I wouldn't consider Trey Masek ahead of both of them.

 

Torres/Tseng - I understand the desire for the upside vote. It's not like the "veterans" here are guys that jump off the page and necessarily excite. Considering age and risk, though, I simply can't justify it for me if there's decent enough veterans ahead. There's simply a huge enough question as to these guys ability to make it up the ladder as of now, when they haven't played stateside. Once there's some reports/judgments on their abilities stateside, I'm much more willing to vote for them (witness how I pushed Marco Hernandez based off reports and what I heard from Arizona several years back). Just ... the way I process it.

 

Beeler/Geiger/Szczur - Not really in the consideration for me. I liked Geiger when we picked him, but considering his defensive limitations, the bat is really going to have to show all the way up the ladder. I guess, with Beeler, in my mind, part of it is, I can't help but wonder why I wouldn't gamble on Wells moreso than Beeler, and hence question why I should go with Beeler here. The other part is that his ceiling isn't huge, and he was banged up, but I could see him getting 5th starter chances in the bigs. I still sort of like Szczur, but he's in his age 24/25 season, and the ceiling for him simply has narrowed it's range down. That said, could see him get plenty of opportunities to find a role in the bigs.

 

Hanneman - The rawness just makes it tough for me to vote him here.

 

Maples/Underwood - Love the raw potential, but just too inconsistent right now and too far away.

 

Dunston Jr./Balaguert - I know why people are intrigued with the former, but I really want a better picture of his offensive potential and whether or not the approach holds up in higher levels. Just wary that he might end up being more like, say, Matt Szczur. The latter just strikes out a bit much for me as of now to really get excited.

 

Guess the pool I was thinking through was Cabrera/Rivero/Vitters/Pineyro/Contreras/Amaya. I really want to make a case for Amaya, as I really think he could breakout, but there isn't enough, in my mind as of right now, to make an argument for him.

[wekim81]

The fact that he was a first-round pick isn't irrelevant.

It's irrelevant to me. Especially after 7 years in the system. How long dose he get to live on his pedigree?

plz look up how many prospects in the system had 100+ AB's and a higher ISO than Vitters.

 

 

 

 

(hint - not many)

 

(it was three)

 

(Two were Baez and Bryant)

that says more about the system Han it does about Vitters.

i know i'm late, but this might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on NSBB. Kudos.

[Guest]

The fact that he was a first-round pick isn't irrelevant.

It's irrelevant to me. Especially after 7 years in the system. How long dose he get to live on his pedigree?

plz look up how many prospects in the system had 100+ AB's and a higher ISO than Vitters.

 

 

 

 

(hint - not many)

 

(it was three)

 

(Two were Baez and Bryant)

that says more about the system Han it does about Vitters.

i know i'm late, but this might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on NSBB. Kudos.

The Cubs have 4 guys with any power potential at all. Bryant and Baez were better, Soler was hurt and Vogelbach hasn't shown game power. Congrats Josh.

[Guest]

It's irrelevant to me. Especially after 7 years in the system. How long dose he get to live on his pedigree?

plz look up how many prospects in the system had 100+ AB's and a higher ISO than Vitters.

 

 

 

 

(hint - not many)

 

(it was three)

 

(Two were Baez and Bryant)

that says more about the system Han it does about Vitters.

i know i'm late, but this might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on NSBB. Kudos.

The Cubs have 4 guys with any power potential at all. Bryant and Baez were better, Soler was hurt and Vogelbach hasn't shown game power. Congrats Josh.

 

If by "any power potential at all" you mean very good to elite power potential, sure (and it's actually probably more than that, depending on how you view these subjective terms, but w/e).

 

However you define the terms, there's not a single other organization with more of them, though.

[craig]

Geiger actually has a lot of power, and perhaps future potential for more than he's shown. He's hit 34 HR's over the last two seasons in 759 AB. An every-day big-leaguer often gets 600 AB (Rizzo had over 600 last year). So at his existing HR/AB pace, Geiger prorates to 27 HR's/600 AB. He's been age-appropriate (20 and 21), and I think may have the potential to raise that rate. Whether he'll have the hitting ability to put his power to HR-use versus advanced pitchers, we'll see. But hitting in HR-friendly Tennessee, he's got a chance to put up some interesting HR numbers this summer.

 

Obviously Jiminez has a ways to go. But he's going to be built like Soler once he fills out. He's got the frame to be a massive power possibility, down the road.

[Guest]

Geiger actually has a lot of power, and perhaps future potential for more than he's shown. He's hit 34 HR's over the last two seasons in 759 AB. An every-day big-leaguer often gets 600 AB (Rizzo had over 600 last year). So at his existing HR/AB pace, Geiger prorates to 27 HR's/600 AB. He's been age-appropriate (20 and 21), and I think may have the potential to raise that rate. Whether he'll have the hitting ability to put his power to HR-use versus advanced pitchers, we'll see. But hitting in HR-friendly Tennessee, he's got a chance to put up some interesting HR numbers this summer.

 

Obviously Jiminez has a ways to go. But he's going to be built like Soler once he fills out. He's got the frame to be a massive power possibility, down the road.

 

Didn't realize Tennessee was considered HR friendly.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Don't know, but in comparison to the MWL and FSL, it's probably Coors Field.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

If Vitters wasn't a first round pick he wouldn't be in the discussion, not even close. He's often injured, has no position, hasn't hit for power, and has been in the system for seven years. Like goony I never liked him, but people kept saying mono held his numbers down in HS. He gets HBP all the time, already had a wrist injury and various ankle and leg strains. My bet is he gets hurt this year after showing decent performance in AAA and we're having this same conversation again next year.0

 

You can flip this argument around. Assume for a second that he was not a first round pick, but a third or fourth round pick. He would have been a 3B with a pretty good 19 year old debut season in A. He struggled a bit in his two stints in High A at 19/20, but seemed to be alright as a 21 year old in AA in 2011. At that point he probably would have been sneaking into the back end of most teams top 10, if not the BA Top 100. Then, as a 22 year old he hit .304/.356/.513 in AAA and at least has pretty good offensive tools. At that point he would have likely flown into the Top 100 prospects. Of course his stint in the Show sucked, but people would have given him mulligan given his performance in AAA and his age. Of course last year was a lost season, but when he was healthy he was successful.

 

He's not an old prospect by any stretch of the imagination for a guy in AAA. He didn't turn 24 until the end of last season and he is a full year younger than Mike Olt -- which we have sitting at #11 -- and is proven at a higher level. Vitters now has about a full season at Iowa and has hit .302/.361/.513/.873 with 22 HR. While I don't think the world of the guy, I do think he's been around so long as a top prospect that he almost gets underrated on his performance now. It wouldn't surprise me if he went the Michael Cuddyer career route where he started at as a first round HS pick who was kind of forgotten by the time he was 25 after being a top flight prospect for 4-5 years. Then all of a sudden he was 27 and a pretty impactful offensive force and gave some flexibility in being able to play 3B, CO and 1B (albeit not really good)

[Clem Fandango]

Perhaps it's been discussed, but out of curiosity if Brett Jackson were still eligible, where would you guys have him in your rankings?

[Guest]

Perhaps it's been discussed, but out of curiosity if Brett Jackson were still eligible, where would you guys have him in your rankings?

 

Non-existent.

 

Is he not "eligible?"

[Sammy Sofa]

Perhaps it's been discussed, but out of curiosity if Brett Jackson were still eligible, where would you guys have him in your rankings?

 

God, he was so awful last year. Who knows, 50-something.

[jersey cubs fan]

Perhaps it's been discussed, but out of curiosity if Brett Jackson were still eligible, where would you guys have him in your rankings?

Somewhere between dunston and Gretzky

[SouthSideRyan]

Jackson is still eligible. Not only was he awful last year, his numbers (both primary and peripheral too a step backwards in 2012) I was burnt by davell already for a random proclamation on Vitters but I'll do it again and say 40ish because he can still presumably can still play cf

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Would you give up anybody on this list for Brett Jackson?

 

Carlos Rodriguez

David Garner

Dustin Geiger

Eloy Jimenez

Erling Moreno

Frandy de la Rosa

Gioskar Amaya

Gleyber Torres

Jacob Hanneman

Jae-Hoon Ha

James Pugliese

Jen-Ho Tseng

John Andreoli

Jose Paulino

Josh Conway

Josh Vitters

Logan Watkins

Marco Hernandez

Mark Malave

Matt Loosen

Matt Szczur

Ryan McNeil

Scott Frazier

Starling Peralta

Stephen Bruno

Trevor Clifton

Trey Masek

Zach Cates

Zach Rosscup

[SouthSideRyan]

Carlos Rodriguez? David garner? You're just making guys up

[craig]

Would you give up anybody on this list for Brett Jackson?

 

Carlos Rodriguez

David Garner

Dustin Geiger

Eloy Jimenez

Erling Moreno

Frandy de la Rosa

Gioskar Amaya

Gleyber Torres

Jacob Hanneman

Jae-Hoon Ha

James Pugliese

Jen-Ho Tseng

John Andreoli

Jose Paulino

Josh Conway

Josh Vitters

Logan Watkins

Marco Hernandez

Mark Malave

Matt Loosen

Matt Szczur

Ryan McNeil

Scott Frazier

Starling Peralta

Stephen Bruno

Trevor Clifton

Trey Masek

Zach Cates

Zach Rosscup

 

Heh heh. Not many. Maybe 4 or 5? Frandy, Rodriguez, Marco, and Ha? Maybe Watkins?

[davell]

Would you give up anybody on this list for Brett Jackson?

 

Carlos Rodriguez

David Garner

Dustin Geiger

Eloy Jimenez

Erling Moreno

Frandy de la Rosa

Gioskar Amaya

Gleyber Torres

Jacob Hanneman

Jae-Hoon Ha

James Pugliese

Jen-Ho Tseng

John Andreoli

Jose Paulino

Josh Conway

Josh Vitters

Logan Watkins

Marco Hernandez

Mark Malave

Matt Loosen

Matt Szczur

Ryan McNeil

Scott Frazier

Starling Peralta

Stephen Bruno

Trevor Clifton

Trey Masek

Zach Cates

Zach Rosscup

 

 

Interesting exercise. Personally, I still think Brett can contribute more to a big league club than Vitters, due to D and baserunning. Not by much, but I think he'll wind up having a slightly better(still non productive) ML career. Although, the Cuddyer mention does lend SOME hope for Vitters honestly.

 

Off that list though, I'd take Jackson or Vitters over the following- Rodriguez, Garner, Ha, Pugliese, Watkins, Loosen, and Peralta. I'm basing it off of if another team DFA'd Brett or Vitters, I'd trade one of those guys for either of those two. Cates, Rosscup, Szczur, and Andreoli would be iffy as well. The rest still have too much unknown for me to gibe them up for something I consider trivial.

 

The reports on Rodriguez' stuff was pretty blah, Garner is a middle reiiever type, Ha is a 25th man type without the perceived upside, Pugliese is a decent arm, but the upside thing would allow me to give him up, Watkins does nothing for me, ditto Loosen, and I don't see Peralta ever putting it together.

 

Cates and Rosscup both look decent in relief, but neither give me he vibe they're irreplaceable either. And neither Szczur or Andreoli are anything special obviously, although I do feel as if Andreoli has been overlooked a bit.

[Guest]

Interesting exercise. Personally, I still think Brett can contribute more to a big league club than Vitters, due to D and baserunning. Not by much, but I think he'll wind up having a slightly better(still non productive) ML career. Although, the Cuddyer mention does lend SOME hope for Vitters honestly.

 

To me, that's beyond crazy at this point. It's not like he's Barney in CF, either.

[davell]

Interesting exercise. Personally, I still think Brett can contribute more to a big league club than Vitters, due to D and baserunning. Not by much, but I think he'll wind up having a slightly better(still non productive) ML career. Although, the Cuddyer mention does lend SOME hope for Vitters honestly.

 

To me, that's beyond crazy at this point. It's not like he's Barney in CF, either.

 

It's not happening with the Cubs, but I think it's plausible that if Brett could hit .200 in the majors, the rest of the package could make him slightly more valuable than a short side of the platoon type, which is all I think Vitters is.(Brett would have an advantage conceivably, by being the big side of a platoon himself)

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Would you give up anybody on this list for Brett Jackson?

 

Carlos Rodriguez

David Garner

Dustin Geiger

Eloy Jimenez

Erling Moreno

Frandy de la Rosa

Gioskar Amaya

Gleyber Torres

Jacob Hanneman

Jae-Hoon Ha

James Pugliese

Jen-Ho Tseng

John Andreoli

Jose Paulino

Josh Conway

Josh Vitters

Logan Watkins

Marco Hernandez

Mark Malave

Matt Loosen

Matt Szczur

Ryan McNeil

Scott Frazier

Starling Peralta

Stephen Bruno

Trevor Clifton

Trey Masek

Zach Cates

Zach Rosscup

 

 

Interesting exercise. Personally, I still think Brett can contribute more to a big league club than Vitters, due to D and baserunning. Not by much, but I think he'll wind up having a slightly better(still non productive) ML career. Although, the Cuddyer mention does lend SOME hope for Vitters honestly.

 

Off that list though, I'd take Jackson or Vitters over the following- Rodriguez, Garner, Ha, Pugliese, Watkins, Loosen, and Peralta. I'm basing it off of if another team DFA'd Brett or Vitters, I'd trade one of those guys for either of those two. Cates, Rosscup, Szczur, and Andreoli would be iffy as well. The rest still have too much unknown for me to gibe them up for something I consider trivial.

 

The reports on Rodriguez' stuff was pretty blah, Garner is a middle reiiever type, Ha is a 25th man type without the perceived upside, Pugliese is a decent arm, but the upside thing would allow me to give him up, Watkins does nothing for me, ditto Loosen, and I don't see Peralta ever putting it together.

 

Cates and Rosscup both look decent in relief, but neither give me he vibe they're irreplaceable either. And neither Szczur or Andreoli are anything special obviously, although I do feel as if Andreoli has been overlooked a bit.

 

Andreoli IS Szczur, except with better production and no hype because of his draft history.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

And guys like Garner, Loosen, Peralta, and Pugliese can be lot more valuable as middle-relievers than outfielders who play average CF defense and struggle to hit .200 without plus-power. Edited February 21, 2014 by Tangled Up in Plaid

[davell]

Would you give up anybody on this list for Brett Jackson?

 

Carlos Rodriguez

David Garner

Dustin Geiger

Eloy Jimenez

Erling Moreno

Frandy de la Rosa

Gioskar Amaya

Gleyber Torres

Jacob Hanneman

Jae-Hoon Ha

James Pugliese

Jen-Ho Tseng

John Andreoli

Jose Paulino

Josh Conway

Josh Vitters

Logan Watkins

Marco Hernandez

Mark Malave

Matt Loosen

Matt Szczur

Ryan McNeil

Scott Frazier

Starling Peralta

Stephen Bruno

Trevor Clifton

Trey Masek

Zach Cates

Zach Rosscup

 

 

Interesting exercise. Personally, I still think Brett can contribute more to a big league club than Vitters, due to D and baserunning. Not by much, but I think he'll wind up having a slightly better(still non productive) ML career. Although, the Cuddyer mention does lend SOME hope for Vitters honestly.

 

Off that list though, I'd take Jackson or Vitters over the following- Rodriguez, Garner, Ha, Pugliese, Watkins, Loosen, and Peralta. I'm basing it off of if another team DFA'd Brett or Vitters, I'd trade one of those guys for either of those two. Cates, Rosscup, Szczur, and Andreoli would be iffy as well. The rest still have too much unknown for me to gibe them up for something I consider trivial.

 

The reports on Rodriguez' stuff was pretty blah, Garner is a middle reiiever type, Ha is a 25th man type without the perceived upside, Pugliese is a decent arm, but the upside thing would allow me to give him up, Watkins does nothing for me, ditto Loosen, and I don't see Peralta ever putting it together.

 

Cates and Rosscup both look decent in relief, but neither give me he vibe they're irreplaceable either. And neither Szczur or Andreoli are anything special obviously, although I do feel as if Andreoli has been overlooked a bit.

 

Andreoli IS Szczur, except with better production and no hype because of his draft history.

 

And guys like Garner, Loosen, Peralta, and Pugliese can be lot more valuable as middle-relievers than outfielders who play average CF defense and struggle to hit .200 without plus-power.

 

I wouldn't argue that, IF that was those guys floor. Unfortunately it's not-None of them are guaranteed to even make it out of AA and none of them have a ceiling remotely worth getting excited about.

 

Brett, as a 5th OFer, would have more value to me than any of that group.

[craig]

….

Cates and Rosscup both look decent in relief, but neither give me he vibe they're irreplaceable either. …..

 

I wouldn't argue that, IF that was those guys floor. Unfortunately it's not-None of them are guaranteed to even make it out of AA and none of them have a ceiling remotely worth getting excited about.

 

Brett, as a 5th OFer, would have more value to me than any of that group.

 

This whole ranking process has often revolved around several issues:

1. Proven record (often including proven limitations) versus absence of record.

2. Reliever/Role player vs starter.

3. Decent/Average in volume versus excellence limited.

4. Tools vs anti-tools.

 

2 vs 3 sometimes conflict. Vizcaino chance for excellent/greatness/well-above-averge as a reliever is larger than for Hendricks as a starter. But Hendricks ranked ahead. Vitters' splits history suggest he might be a really good RH platoon bat; but how valuable is that?

 

Rosscup will never be more than a role-player reliever. But his chance of being excellent in that role is significant. LikewiseVizcaino and Rivero, only much more so.

 

I'm appreciating guys who I think might be really excellent pitchers, or platoon hitters, even if they aren't regular starters.