Who is the Cubs #9 Prospect?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The poll will be open for 48 hours.

 

Results so far:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Albert Almora

4. Jorge Soler

5. CJ Edwards

6. Arismendy Alcantara

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Daniel Vogelbach

[toonsterwu]

I haven't decided on the top 3 yet, but I'm set on Villanueva at 9. Now, I'm actually not huge on him but the profile (upper level, young 3rd baseman with a plus glove, solid pop; has shown improvement climbing up the ladder, particularly power wise; numbers and scout suggest the approach is decent enough) seems more attractive than the other options. I like Candelario, but he's a good 2 levels below (assuming A+ vs. AAA), isn't the defensive player at 3rd that Villanueva is (and doesn't project to be, even in a best case scenario), power is still projection and the power projections don't suggest someone that will have significantly more power than Villanueva in a best case. Candelario's one plus is that he should hit for a higher average, but considering the level difference, I just don't know if the upside is significantly better to bump him ahead of a guy 2 levels higher. Olt's coming off a bad season. As much as I still am relatively intrigued with him, it's just hard for me to put him ahead of Villanueva, when both should be in AAA. I really couldn't think of anyone else as a justifiable argument (this isn't to say that Olt/Candelario would fill out my top 3 votes ... those are the names that people have argued in this area).

 

I'm thinking Candelario and I sort of like the idea of Neil Ramirez there, tbh.

[davell]

I went ahead and voted for 3 for the first time. Kind of have the same thought process as Toonster. The 3 I voted for are Villanueva, Candelario, and Olt. In that order. Same thought process for Villanueva vs Candelario, even if I do see Candelario with potentially a better bat, being two levels behind cancels that out for me. Because the power is likely going to be close. To me, the potential gain in hit tool and plate discipline don't outweigh the loss in defense enough to overcome a two level discrepancy. No knock on Candelario, who I kind of suspect will win this vote.

 

Took Olt as my 3rd guy, partly on Sharma's article, partly on North's assessment, but mostly because there is still evidently a bit of concern on Vizcaino's health, who I would have had as my 9th, if not for that. He'll be in my top 15, but I'm unsure as to where at this point.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I also voted for 3 for the first time. Villanueva, Vizcaino, and Olt. I'm just not as sold on Candelario as most yet, I know he's really young but I'd like to see more game production from the bat.

[Sammy Sofa]

Voted for Olt just because it seems like he has the best shot of this group of making an impact ASAP.

[Clem Fandango]

I did Olt, Candelario, and Vizcaino. Order was Olt, Vizcaino, Candelario.

 

Olt because of the reason N&G said. I think if his problems are fixed he can make an impact now rather than later and be a very valuable asset. Vizcaino because I'm still high on him despite the injuries. I can't ignore his upside, even if he's destined for the pen. Candelario because he's good and deserving of being in this position.

 

Wouldn't mind to see Villanueva there either, but I liked the other three better. I still see Villanueva as a glove only 3B. Honestly, he reminds me of Matt Dominguez, though Dominguez is the better fielder.

[Bilbo161]

For me it's Olt at 9 though that's giving him the benefit of the doubt that the injury/eye issues are behind him. After that I go back and forth between Villanueva and Candelario, Right now the Candyman gets the nod for his better plate approach and switch hitting, but Villanueva's defense made the choice close.

[craig]

I took Vizcaino, Villanueva, and Hendricks, perhaps in that order. That's what I had when I made my list 3 months ago, so I decided not to change it. I'm optimistic but not at all confident on Olt. I've been pretty happy with the positive Candelario reports this winter from the people who talk to scouts, so I'm pretty hopeful on him, but I'm a doubter that he'll ever play 3B defensively at a level we'll want. Hope I'm wrong there.

 

If Vizcaino gets healthy, I think he can be really good. So the comment that he isn't quite 100% yet, but will be ready by spring, doesn't really push him off of #9 for me.

 

Villanueva doesn't get the scouting for power, and his K/BB/OBP are lousy, and a .770's OPS in a hitter's park isn't that great. But the defense and the actual HR's/doubles is enough to sneak into top 11 for me.

 

I know I'll be way out of the norm with Hendricks.

1. I value pitching a lot, and teams need five (plus) starters. A position can't afford many holes in his game, but a 5th starter can be far from perfect.

2. According to Theo and Johnson, Hendricks can get significantly better than he's been. He was already very effective, but he's not necessarily beyond getting better yet. A number of other sources, while all noting that he's not TOR and that he's not as good as his stats, seem to project him as a capable #4-5 starter.

3. I know his stuff doesn't scout great, but a career K/BB of 5:1, with an 0.4 HR rate, those are some beautiful ratios. Maybe they aren't all mirage.

4. Reading some of Maddux's ideas, particularly the Boswell article, made me think optimistically about Hendricks.

[treebird]

olt is impossible because he's either a useful major league player this year and therefore way undervalued here or a non-entity for his whole career because he sees five baseballs when he should see one and is actually the 135th best prospect in the system.

 

anywhere we put him is wrong. i punted and picked candelario.

[davell]

I guess the best thing about Olt's status is we'll know very quickly. McLeod said he'll be able to tell the first time he's up against live BP.

 

As for Hendricks, who Craig brought up, I'll have in my top 15, I think he's going to be a guy that plays above the stuff. I've got a feeling we'll be penciling him into our 2015 Opening Day rotation.

[pitchcs]

Candelario.

 

His age compared to the other 3B prospects production and age is enough for me to slot him in here. I just don't think enough of Olt and Villanueva to give them the nod.

[Cubswin11]

Jeimer. Also Vitters should be added somewhat soon, no?

[davell]

To me, here's the next group of guys to add....

 

Tyler Black-surprised he's not already on it. He's definitely inside my top 20

Gleyber Torres- If Jimenez is on, he should be too, since he was ranked top overall on one of the IFA lists last year as well.

Duane Underwood- Upside

Dillon Maples-Upside

Gioskar Amaya-Scouting circles like him a lot

Ivan Pineyro- Upside not as high as some, but a definite top 30 guy for us.

 

 

 

Szczur and Vitters do little for me honestly.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Jeimer. Also Vitters should be added somewhat soon, no?

 

Vitters might be in the 30-40 range if he's lucky.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

To me, here's the next group of guys to add....

 

Tyler Black-surprised he's not already on it. He's definitely inside my top 20

 

I assume you mean Corey Black. I haven't heard one person that buys he's going to be a starter. I have him at 25.

[davell]

To me, here's the next group of guys to add....

 

Tyler Black-surprised he's not already on it. He's definitely inside my top 20

 

I assume you mean Corey Black. I haven't heard one person that buys he's going to be a starter. I have him at 25.

Yeah, had wrestling on the brain evidently. He may wind up in the pen, but he's not hit any road blocks yet. Holds his velo late into games and no injury issues yet, after his TJS. Those two things and height are the questions, but until he encounters trouble, I won't write him off as a SP.

Edited January 25, 2014 by davell

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Yeah, he could definitely climb up pretty high if he had a good full season at Tenn.

[davell]

Yeah, he could definitely climb up pretty high if he had a good full season at Tenn.

Do you have Pineyro higher than him? I've got Black ahead of him personally.

[WrigleyField 22]

Jeimer. Also Vitters should be added somewhat soon, no?

 

Vitters might be in the 30-40 range if he's lucky.

I disagree. Once we get in the teen range were talking about a lot of lower level guys particularly lower level pitchers. Vitters wasn't able to rebound last season but was out due to injury. The small sample wasn't bad.

 

Probably depends on how much you split ceiling verse floor. I'm not exactly sure where I have Vitters yet but there's probably a case verse Top 20.

[davell]

Vitters is in my 30-40 range. To me, he's a short side of the platoon guy with slightly below average power for playing a corner OF spot. Who is now 24, with 6 full minor league seasons under his belt, and is also injury prone.

[WrigleyField 22]

If you're putting Vitters that low, you're basically just taking the lure of the unknown, a bunch of lottery tickets over actual minor league production. There's some serious doubts with Vitters particularly with his 2012 MLB showing, but there's still some skills there.

 

You're talking about a lot of guys with 1-2 promising tools and then question marks about everything else. Vitters I guess has the disadvantages of having those unknowns displayed at higher levels, but has kept basically his best tool intact and is showing some progress in plate discipline. There's a lot less luster as a LF/1B than a 3B but in another system teams would probably be making more of an effort to keep him at 3B. Even as a backup CIF/COF bench player and possible platoon I think there's a lot to like.

 

And is he really injury prone? Last year was really his only big injury year I recall.

 

Also I wouldn't take 24 as a bad thing. They could keep him in AAA for part or the whole year and he still wouldn't be -whoa this guy is too old to be a prospect, old.

[davell]

Vitters had 2 years where he didn't miss time, 2011 and 2012. The only tool he kind of has is a hit tool, that MAY still have a shot at being above average. And considering his struggle in the majors, I kind of doubt it ever gets there.

 

I rank more on upside myself, unless someone is close and still projects as a possible regular. Which I can see with a guy like Villanueva, but not with Vitters, at this point. It wouldn't shock me if he's a AAAA player by this time next year. The plate discipline advance was a nice development for him this past year, but it was a small sample size and I wonder if its sustainable.

 

The prospect guys don't even consider him a prospect at this point and that helps influence me, same as during his callup, when it wasn't considered necessary to get him full time at bats. Makes me think there's something missing, that we're not privy too.

 

But yeah, I'll rank Jimenez, Torres, Erick Leal, Duane Underwood, even Paniagua, all ahead of him. Because they all still have legit upside, even if some will be lucky to ever get a cup of coffee in the bigs, as Vitters has.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, he could definitely climb up pretty high if he had a good full season at Tenn.

Do you have Pineyro higher than him? I've got Black ahead of him personally.

 

I would put both around the same area. I simply haven't pondered a full list that much, but it's essentially rating a higher ceiling arm, but likely destined for the pen, versus a guy with better starting potential, but not a high starting potential ceiling (at best, Pineyro is probably a mid-rotation ceiling). I haven't pondered it all that much strike throwing guys who lack high ceilings tend to have to prove themselves to me on the way up, so my hunch is that I would slide Corey Black ahead slightly on the off-chance of something surprising happening.

 

That said, Pineyro probably has a bit more "growth" potential to him than Black, so really, I could see a case either way. I think Pineyro's fastball would play up a bit more out of the pen, so one could argue that the difference between the two out of the pen isn't that substantial, and hence, Pineyro's better starting potential would get the nod.

 

As for Vitters, my hunch is that I would have him in the top 30, but probably on the last few slots (again, haven't pondered it much this winter). My issue with putting him higher really has little to do with how I felt about him before, and more to do with the fact that he's now a full-time LF, and I'm just not sold on his power being elite enough. Dunno, I really haven't thought about it much. I can see a case for him higher than late 20's, though. There's a lot of intriguing upside guys in the lower levels right now that simply won't become a useful upper minors player, so to rank them ahead, they would have to have superb ceilings, and there's really only a handful of guys that I would feel that way about.

[rawaction]

I don't understand how anyone can vote for Olt in the top 10. He's basically Brett Jackson at this point, with what we all hope is a more correctable flaw because it's something more concrete that has been blamed for his failures. But the bottom line is, he's still had failures. And a lot of them over the last year and a half.

 

Vizcaino, Villanueva, and Candelario in that order. Like Aroldys' reports of his velocity being back. And even if he never starts a game again, he's got the potential to be a dominant late reliever.

[ctcf]

Voted Villanueva. He's looking like decent bet to be a solid major leaguer. Candelario is just too far off.