NFL Week 17

[rawaction]

Games that mean something.

 

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh- 1pm ET

Baltimore @ Cincinnati- 1pm ET

NY Jets @ Miami- 1pm ET

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans- 4:25pm ET

St Louis @ Seattle- 4:25pm ET

Green Bay @ Chicago- 4:25 ET

San Francisco @ Arizona- 4:25 ET

Kansas City @ San Diego- 4:25 ET

Philadelphia @ Dallas- 8:25 ET

 

Other games (who cares what time):

 

Denver @ Oakland

Buffalo @ New England

Carolina @ Atlanta

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Washington @ NY Giants

[rawaction]

My 2013 Bold Predictions:

 

1. Again, every year, there is a team that starts out on a long undefeated streak. This year, it's the Denver Broncos. Like the recent Falcons, Packers, Colts and Patriots teams to start on long undefeated streaks.....the Broncos will NOT win the Superbowl.

 

2. NFL passing records will go down again, with a record 12 QBs throwing for over 4,000 yards (previous high is 11), 5 of whom will throw for over 5,000 (also a record).

 

3. The Dallas Cowboys will win the NFC East and have a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

 

4. Adrian Peterson will NOT lead the league in rushing. Hasn't been a repeat rushing champ since Tomlinson in 06 & 07. Until last season, the 4 after Tomlinson all won the rushing title for the 1st time. This year will be another 1st timer winning the rushing title. Means no Peterson, Foster, MJD, or CJ2K. And I'll even say it WILL NOT be Alfred Morris.

 

5. The Saints were statistically the worst defense in NFL history last year, after this season, they will be the 2nd worse as a team will break all their dubious yardage against records.

 

6. Three of the final 4, the Falcons, 49ers and Ravens, will all finish the season with sub-.500 records.

 

7. Sophomores will slump. Players that took the league by storm last year will struggle big-time this season. That includes Luck, RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Morris. The QBs will be outperformed by Tannehill and Weeden. Morris will lose carries by mid-season to Helu, etc.

 

8. Despite record passing numbers, there has been a player (or 2) threatening the sack record each of the last 2 years. This year, despite record numbers, no individual will have more than 15 sacks.

 

9. For the first time since 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars will not draft in the top 10 (not including trades). They win 7 games.

 

10. For the first time in NFL history (I think), a safety will lead the league in tackles (solo).

 

Predicted standings:

 

AFC East- New England, Miami, Buffalo, NY Jets

AFC North- Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh

AFC South- Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis

AFC West- Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland

 

NFC East- Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia

NFC North- Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota

NFC South- New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay

NFC West- Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona

 

Wildcards: Miami and KC; Green Bay and St. Louis.

 

Playoffs:

Cincy over Miami, Houston over KC

Chicago over St. Louis, New Orleans over GB

 

NE over Cincy, Denver over Houston

Chicago over Dallas, New Orleans over Seattle

 

NE over Denver

Chicago over New Orleans

 

Superbowl: Chicago over New England.

 

My Week 1 predictions. Wanted to see how they have turned out.

 

1. Broncos did go undefeated for a while, but the Chiefs went longer.

 

2. Carson Palmer should be the 9th to go over 4000 this year. After that, need Flacco, Tannehill, and Eli to go for over 270, 293, and 335 respectively. If Romo plays this week, he will go over 4000 and only 2 of those 3 need to. Only 1 over 5K though, with Brees needing 220 this week to join Peyton.

 

3. No bye for the Cowboys, could still win the division.

 

4. Correct. LeSean McCoy will win it. My initial thought was McCoy, Charles or Spiller. The first 2 are 1-2.

 

5. Dallas not quite at NO levels, because of a good start. Bears run D is historically bad.

 

6. 1 of 3 correct. Ravens could finish at .500 though.

 

7. None of those guys are having the year they had last year (maybe Morris? IDK). RG3 and Kaepernick have definitely been outperformed by Tannehill. Luck has too statistically. Weeden? Yeah, not so much.

 

8. Only 2 over 15 sacks. Nobody else over 13.

 

9. Jags had a decent stretch after a long losing streak. Won't win 7. But could draft 8 if they win this week.

 

10. Wrong. Top safety at 9th overall.

 

Standings- Not bad in AFC (easy), with only the South wrong. Miami has good chance at final WC. NFC could have all division winners right. WC all wrong.

[Andy]

Carolina gets the #1 seed if they win, SF wins, and Seattle loses. Slim chances, of course, but crazier things have happened. A win means a bye, so that's vital. Will have to do it without Smith, who's out for this game with a PCL sprain.

[Formerly Snayke]

Good call on the sophomore QBs. Wilson was hard to see coming.

[Guest]

7. None of those guys are having the year they had last year (maybe Morris? IDK). RG3 and Kaepernick have definitely been outperformed by Tannehill. Luck has too statistically. Weeden? Yeah, not so much.

 

I'd say Luck is having as good of a year as last year. Not as many yards but he's not throwing as many passes either. His completion % is up, TDs are the same but he's thrown 9 less interceptions and his QB rating is up 10 points. Team has almost the same record also.

[rawaction]

7. None of those guys are having the year they had last year (maybe Morris? IDK). RG3 and Kaepernick have definitely been outperformed by Tannehill. Luck has too statistically. Weeden? Yeah, not so much.

 

I'd say Luck is having as good of a year as last year. Not as many yards but he's not throwing as many passes either. His completion % is up, TDs are the same but he's thrown 9 less interceptions and his QB rating is up 10 points. Team has almost the same record also.

 

I meant that Luck has been outperformed by Tannehill (very slightly), not that he wasn't having as good a year.

[Formerly Snayke]

Luck is again 19th in DVOA, and Pro Football Focus has him rated as 24th just in passing. He's been extremely ordinary in two seasons, but because they beat up on a weak division and he makes the occasional highlight reel play, it's just assumed that he's good.

[rawaction]

Luck is again 19th in DVOA, and Pro Football Focus has him rated as 24th just in passing. He's been extremely ordinary in two seasons, but because they beat up on a weak division and he makes the occasional highlight reel play, it's just assumed that he's good.

 

That and he's extremely talented, maybe the best QB prospect to come out since Peyton Manning. And he took a 2-win team to back-to-back 11 win seasons. Oh and for the "beat up on a weak division" stuff......in 2012, he had one of the best teams in the NFL in his division. In 2013, he's beaten Seattle, SF, Denver, and KC....arguably the top 4 teams in football.

[Formerly Snayke]

Luck is again 19th in DVOA, and Pro Football Focus has him rated as 24th just in passing. He's been extremely ordinary in two seasons, but because they beat up on a weak division and he makes the occasional highlight reel play, it's just assumed that he's good.

 

That and he's extremely talented, maybe the best QB prospect to come out since Peyton Manning. And he took a 2-win team to back-to-back 11 win seasons. Oh and for the "beat up on a weak division" stuff......in 2012, he had one of the best teams in the NFL in his division. In 2013, he's beaten Seattle, SF, Denver, and KC....arguably the top 4 teams in football.

 

He's not a prospect anymore. The totality of what Indianapolis has done the past two seasons is fine, but Luck has been an average quarterback.

[rawaction]

Luck is again 19th in DVOA, and Pro Football Focus has him rated as 24th just in passing. He's been extremely ordinary in two seasons, but because they beat up on a weak division and he makes the occasional highlight reel play, it's just assumed that he's good.

 

That and he's extremely talented, maybe the best QB prospect to come out since Peyton Manning. And he took a 2-win team to back-to-back 11 win seasons. Oh and for the "beat up on a weak division" stuff......in 2012, he had one of the best teams in the NFL in his division. In 2013, he's beaten Seattle, SF, Denver, and KC....arguably the top 4 teams in football.

 

He's not a prospect anymore. The totality of what Indianapolis has done the past two seasons is fine, but Luck has been an average quarterback.

I wasn't arguing that he was good. I was arguing your insinuation that there's no reason why people should think he's good. Lol

[CubColtPacer]

Luck is again 19th in DVOA, and Pro Football Focus has him rated as 24th just in passing. He's been extremely ordinary in two seasons, but because they beat up on a weak division and he makes the occasional highlight reel play, it's just assumed that he's good.

 

That's because advanced statistics still don't do a great job of divorcing the player from their situation. That's one of the disclaimers in the DVOA section. Most of the talent on the Colts offense got hurt in the first half of the season. Vick Ballard, Donald Thomas, Dwayne Allen, Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Wayne. The four best players on the Colts offense right now are Luck, Hilton, Brown, and Fleener? That's a pretty bad list, especially when you add in the line has been terrible most of the season (which is one reason why Luck has been hit the 3rd most in the NFL)

 

This Colts team would be one of the worst in the league without Luck. He's not an elite QB, but he's been very good this year.

[Guest]

Sounds like Bill O'Brien is close to leaving Penn State to become the next Texans head coach. Seems like a good hire.

[rawaction]

Sounds like Bill O'Brien is close to leaving Penn State to become the next Texans head coach. Seems like a good hire.

 

Guessing that makes them more likely to go Bridgewater over Clowney.

[sneakypower]

he was one of the precious few exciting possibilities i liked for the Lions, provided we can Schwartz

[Derwood]

Sounds like Bill O'Brien is close to leaving Penn State to become the next Texans head coach. Seems like a good hire.

 

Sucks for PSU fans, but I wouldn't blame him at all. I was hoping he'd see the school through the sanctions, and I hung that hope on how much he loved coaching Christian Hackenburg. We'll see what happens...

[Banedon]

provided we can Schwartz

 

I know what you meant here, but I read this and I think "Oh don't worry, the Lions can Schwartz better than anyone!"

[NOLA]

It is a strange feeling cheering for the Falcons. I feel dirty. Go Atlanta. :blush:

 

EDIT: Suck it Matty Ice.

[Guest]

As it stands now, if San Diego wins, they're in. If not, Pittsburgh gets in.

[bukie]

As it stands now, if San Diego wins, they're in. If not, Pittsburgh gets in.

I preferred the amusing scenario of Baltimore and Miami winning, so if SD won, Miami was in, and if SD lost, Baltimore was in.

[Guest]

As it stands now, if San Diego wins, they're in. If not, Pittsburgh gets in.

I preferred the amusing scenario of Baltimore and Miami winning, so if SD won, Miami was in, and if SD lost, Baltimore was in.

 

Yeah, not very often does something like that happen. Usually there's one team where if they win, they're in regardless.

[Guest]

I didn't put two and two together until they said after the Panthers game that Carolina was the first NFC team to clinch a division this year. I bet that's hasn't happened before.

[Guest]

he was one of the precious few exciting possibilities i liked for the Lions, provided we can Schwartz

 

i really really like Pete Carmichael. I hope you guys don't hire him.

 

I actually think Lovie Smith would wreck shop in Detroit with that front line.

[OleMissCub]

Thank Christ I don't have to depend on Matty Ice week in and week out.

[rocket]

Go Bills

[NOLA]

Thank Christ I don't have to depend on Matty Ice week in and week out.

 

I swear I said the exact same thing during that game. Roddy White also cemented his place among my most despised players. What a choke.

 

On a side note, I guess it took Sean until week 17 to call running plays consistently.