The 2014 Bullpen

[SouthSideRyan]

The bullpen is looking good now, but the question is how many of them will still be here after the trade deadline.

If only I had the power to make posts like this go away...

The funny thing is, it actually brings to light just how deep our pen is. If Vera's and Russell are sent packing mid season, we'll have Fujikawa coming back, along with Rusin, Raley, Rosscup, Wada, and a bunch of RHP to replace Russell. The pen can withstand some injuries AND a trade or two, in my opinion. The upside is there and the depth is great.

 

I mostly agree but people said the same thing about the rotation last year and then Villanueva sucked as a starter and Scott Baker was dead for 90% of the year

[Guest]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

This post has me irrationally optimistic about how decent the team could be if Rizzo's results improve and Castro bounces back to at least 2010-12 form...a little Baez call up magic could make things interesting.

 

That is, of course, assuming the rotation isn't a dumpster fire, which it very well could be depending on what happens with Samardzija and Tanaka.

[Guest]

The bullpen is looking good now, but the question is how many of them will still be here after the trade deadline.

If only I had the power to make posts like this go away...

The funny thing is, it actually brings to light just how deep our pen is. If Vera's and Russell are sent packing mid season, we'll have Fujikawa coming back, along with Rusin, Raley, Rosscup, Wada, and a bunch of RHP to replace Russell. The pen can withstand some injuries AND a trade or two, in my opinion. The upside is there and the depth is great.

 

I mostly agree but people said the same thing about the rotation last year and then Villanueva sucked as a starter and Scott Baker was dead for 90% of the year

 

Villanueva was fine as a starter, especially as a 6th starter. Replacing the IP of 2 starters is a lot more difficult than replacing the IP for 2 relievers.

[Cubswin11]

This just made me realize we haven't made the mythical "flier" SP signing yet

[Clem Fandango]

This just made me realize we haven't made the mythical "flier" SP signing yet

 

"WSR to the Mark Mulder bandwagon. Your bandwagon is leaving the station, WSR"

[A New Era]

I say we take a flier on that Tanaka feller.

[davell]

I'm expecting Baker to be back. Whether we get Tanaka or not.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'm expecting Baker to be back. Whether we get Tanaka or not.

 

Same.

[Guest]

I almost wonder if they view Wada as that guy, and they're lucky that they were able to get him without requiring an MLB deal.

[SouthSideRyan]

I almost wonder if they view Wada as that guy, and they're lucky that they were able to get him without requiring an MLB deal.

 

What am I missing about Wada?

[KaiserCesar]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

This post has me irrationally optimistic about how decent the team could be if Rizzo's results improve and Castro bounces back to at least 2010-12 form...a little Baez call up magic could make things interesting.

 

That is, of course, assuming the rotation isn't a dumpster fire, which it very well could be depending on what happens with Samardzija and Tanaka.

 

Didn't the team have something like a +.040 OPS differential but was 10-11 games under .500 after about 50-60 games? I'm hoping the season starts out well. I think the last OK beginning to a season was the 15-15 start in 2010.

[Guest]

I almost wonder if they view Wada as that guy, and they're lucky that they were able to get him without requiring an MLB deal.

 

What am I missing about Wada?

 

Admittedly I'm currently on a "Japanese pitchers can do no wrong" kick, but with the success imports have had for a few years, you can look at his Japanese performance and draw a line to him being a pretty good starter, even after accounting for his age and rehab.

[davell]

Just got Jonathan Sanchez on a minor league deal. My guess is Russell gets dealt to the Padres......

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Isn't Sanchez a really lousy pitcher? Why would he have any bearing on Russell's fate?

[davell]

Isn't Sanchez a really lousy pitcher? Why would he have any bearing on Russell's fate?

 

It's not because of just him, it's the amount of lefties we've got stockpiled at this point that makes me say it. Wright is certainly on the team, Rusin COULD wind up in the pen, it looks like Raley is headed towards being a fulltime bullpen arm, Rosscup is going to get a look. We've now signed Wada and Sanchez to minor league deals. Surely something's gonna give.....

[nightman]

Guys like Parker, Rondon, Cabrera, Vizcaino, Rusin, Rosscup, etc. who will be possibilities for the last couple bullpen spots. How many options do those guys left?

[Guest]

Guys like Parker, Rondon, Cabrera, Vizcaino, Rusin, Rosscup, etc. who will be possibilities for the last couple bullpen spots. How many options do those guys left?

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

[nightman]

Guys like Parker, Rondon, Cabrera, Vizcaino, Rusin, Rosscup, etc. who will be possibilities for the last couple bullpen spots. How many options do those guys left?

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

 

So Alberto Cabrera needs to be on the Major League roster or he's likely gone. Not a huge loss if it does happen, but it would have an effect on bullpen depth.

[Guest]

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

Interesting albeit unscientific.

 

On July 26, the Cubs traded Soriano and were 45-55. DeJesus was the only big name (relatively speaking) traded after that. They then swept the Giants that weekend to improve to 48-55. They then went 16-41 the rest of the way.

 

The bullpen put up a 4.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP the first four months and a 3.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP the last two, and that's while pitching more innings in that span (average of 90 the last two months vs. 73.5 the first four).

 

For the season, the Cubs bullpen was the second worst in the league in WPA at -4.77. They were over two wins better than the Astros but nearly two wins worst than the No. 28 team, and were one of only eight teams with a negative WPA from the bullpen. The Tigers and Marlins were 15th and 16th, respectively, with a 1.99 and 1.75, so roughly 6.5 wins better. The first half (I don't feel like adding each team up by month so this split will have to do), the Cubs were -4.55, last in the league by over a win and almost five wins worse than average.

 

Short answer to your original question, yes. They were only 7 under .500 in late July so all it would take is one game a month to go the other way and they're 1 over .500.

[SouthSideRyan]

So what that split tells me is dividing by the Garza trade had literally nothing to do with the difference in W-L based on the bullpen stats

[treebird]

So what that split tells me is dividing by the Garza trade had literally nothing to do with the difference in W-L based on the bullpen stats

 

maybe all the relief pitchers were afraid of getting shaving cream to the face so they intentionally pitched like garbage until garza was gone

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I mostly agree but people said the same thing about the rotation last year and then Villanueva sucked as a starter and Scott Baker was dead for 90% of the year

 

And we did, in fact, have a pretty decent rotation despite all that happening. For having to deal with a Garza injury and trade and a Baker injury, it ended up being with spitting distance of average. The bigger problem was that our lack of pitching depth forced us to sign swingmen to do double-duty and try to patch the rotation and pen at the same time, and when those guys got pressed into service in the rotation, the pen fell apart.

 

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

This post has me irrationally optimistic about how decent the team could be if Rizzo's results improve and Castro bounces back to at least 2010-12 form...a little Baez call up magic could make things interesting.

 

That is, of course, assuming the rotation isn't a dumpster fire, which it very well could be depending on what happens with Samardzija and Tanaka.

 

I agree that there's enough there to hope on, but the problem is that while we should get some improvements from Castro and whatever, that's probably balanced out by not having a bunch of random replacement-level infielders go out of their minds like Ransom and Murphy did. And I'm not ready to count on 3-4 wins from Welington Castillo every year just yet. And thanks to North, I now know that Junior Lake is awful despite what we got from him last year.

 

It feels like we're almost Hendrying in that we're addressing precisely what went wrong with the previous season and letting new problems emerge (but I guess you can't fix everything with our current budget restraints). It's hard to see the bullpen not being at least adequate this year if not better, but the rotation looks iffy and the offense looks pretty putrid to me.

[CubsWin]

I mostly agree but people said the same thing about the rotation last year and then Villanueva sucked as a starter and Scott Baker was dead for 90% of the year

 

And we did, in fact, have a pretty decent rotation despite all that happening. For having to deal with a Garza injury and trade and a Baker injury, it ended up being with spitting distance of average. The bigger problem was that our lack of pitching depth forced us to sign swingmen to do double-duty and try to patch the rotation and pen at the same time, and when those guys got pressed into service in the rotation, the pen fell apart.

 

If last year's pre trades team has this bullpen, does it hover around .500 for a while?

 

From Gregg's first save to the day of the Garza trade, the team was 39-40. 5-13 before Gregg, 22-43 after Garza.

 

This post has me irrationally optimistic about how decent the team could be if Rizzo's results improve and Castro bounces back to at least 2010-12 form...a little Baez call up magic could make things interesting.

 

That is, of course, assuming the rotation isn't a dumpster fire, which it very well could be depending on what happens with Samardzija and Tanaka.

 

I agree that there's enough there to hope on, but the problem is that while we should get some improvements from Castro and whatever, that's probably balanced out by not having a bunch of random replacement-level infielders go out of their minds like Ransom and Murphy did. And I'm not ready to count on 3-4 wins from Welington Castillo every year just yet. And thanks to North, I now know that Junior Lake is awful despite what we got from him last year.

 

It feels like we're almost Hendrying in that we're addressing precisely what went wrong with the previous season and letting new problems emerge (but I guess you can't fix everything with our current budget restraints). It's hard to see the bullpen not being at least adequate this year if not better, but the rotation looks iffy and the offense looks pretty putrid to me.

I agree. If this is the roster the Cubs take into the start of the season, it likely won't be pretty. And I agree that Lake isn't as good as some of his numbers might be suggesting to others. But I hedge when it comes to declaring him awful as if that's all he'll ever be. He was 23 last season.

[davell]

So now we're checking into Jesse Crain's health evidently. We've got to have a trade lined up somewhere that takes away from our pen, right?

 

LHP Russell, Wright with Raley, Rusin, Rosscup, Sanchez,Hovotny, Wada(starting supposedly)

 

RHP Veras, Villanueva, Strop, Parker, Rondon, Grimm, Vizcaino, Cabrera, Fujikawa

 

Plus you've got Neil Ramirez and Brett Marshall in the mix, along with Zych and Rivero.

 

This is looking like a hell of an interesting pen, even if Rusin somehow makes the rotation. Or if Villanueva does,for that matter. I'd like to add Crain to the mix myself. This depth is going to help out big time with what could be less than a stellar back end of the starting rotation.(add Tanaka and keep Shark though and who knows?).

 

I'm seeing an unlikely Pads run from a couple of years ago.

[Guest]

 

I'm seeing an unlikely Pads run from a couple of years ago.

If only the Cubs played in Petco.