Offseason Rumors

[Rob]

I had resigned myself to the fact it looked like the Cubs weren't going to be in on the major FA. But seeing the mid tier guys like Hudson, Johnson and Young flying off the board without our involvement is annoying. And seeing Bourjos go to the Cards really stings.

 

There just really isn't enough in left in the mid-tier of the market to give the Cubs a reasonable shot at being a decent ballclub next year. It'd take Kazmir, Haren, and Infante. And smart bench pickups like Kottaras and Sizemore. Plus holding onto Samardzija. And being able to trade Barney+ for a 3 WAR OF. And rebounds/breakouts from Castro and Rizzo. Oh, and the pen needs to magically become awesome.

 

All of that might get us to about 88 wins and a 50/50 shot at a wild card spot.

 

This is going to be a frustrating offseason.

 

I don't know what you're drinking (or smoking), but it's pretty potent stuff.

 

You're right. We just need to bring Hendry back. He can work out a three way deal where we move Vitters, Jackson, Barney, and Lake for Trout and Cabrera. Then we are golden.

 

And don't worry, the other teams won't notice they're getting screwed because you thought to include a Kendrick for Porcello swap, you glorious bastard.

[Guest]

I had resigned myself to the fact it looked like the Cubs weren't going to be in on the major FA. But seeing the mid tier guys like Hudson, Johnson and Young flying off the board without our involvement is annoying. And seeing Bourjos go to the Cards really stings.

 

There just really isn't enough in left in the mid-tier of the market to give the Cubs a reasonable shot at being a decent ballclub next year. It'd take Kazmir, Haren, and Infante. And smart bench pickups like Kottaras and Sizemore. Plus holding onto Samardzija. And being able to trade Barney+ for a 3 WAR OF. And rebounds/breakouts from Castro and Rizzo. Oh, and the pen needs to magically become awesome.

 

All of that might get us to about 88 wins and a 50/50 shot at a wild card spot.

 

This is going to be a frustrating offseason.

 

I think you're underselling the trade market. Arguello had an article the other day about it being a potentially trade-happy offseason, and not only is the league off to a hot start with Kinsler/Fielder and Bourjos/Freese, but the Cubs seem to match up pretty well with that mindset. They could potentially be moving Samardzija, and they have a lot of players like Bourjos/Freese who another team might have a disparate evaluation or can really use to fill a need on another roster. Most of the potential matches are guys like the mid-tier free agents too, which lessens the blow of a couple of those guys signing this week.

 

Even then, the FA market is hardly barren. Young and Murphy went off the board, but Gutierrez and Granderson are still out there, plus Ellsbury and Choo if they want to consolidate their spending. Johnson and Hudson(not that I wanted him) are gone, but Kazmir, Hughes, and Haren remain, plus Ubaldo and Tanaka if they want to spend it one place.

 

The odds of the Cubs being a playoff contender aren't all that high, but I don't think they've really taken a hit this week. I'm still plenty annoyed that LA just gave away Bourjos to St. Louis though.

[Backtobanks]

I had resigned myself to the fact it looked like the Cubs weren't going to be in on the major FA. But seeing the mid tier guys like Hudson, Johnson and Young flying off the board without our involvement is annoying. And seeing Bourjos go to the Cards really stings.

 

There just really isn't enough in left in the mid-tier of the market to give the Cubs a reasonable shot at being a decent ballclub next year. It'd take Kazmir, Haren, and Infante. And smart bench pickups like Kottaras and Sizemore. Plus holding onto Samardzija. And being able to trade Barney+ for a 3 WAR OF. And rebounds/breakouts from Castro and Rizzo. Oh, and the pen needs to magically become awesome.

 

All of that might get us to about 88 wins and a 50/50 shot at a wild card spot.

 

This is going to be a frustrating offseason.

 

I don't know what you're drinking (or smoking), but it's pretty potent stuff.

 

You're right. We just need to bring Hendry back. He can work out a three way deal where we move Vitters, Jackson, Barney, and Lake for Trout and Cabrera. Then we are golden.

 

I guess you're still fixated on Hendry. If you think signing a few mid-tier FAs are going to get us to about 88 wins, then you're drunk, stoned, or crazy.

[Rob]

I had resigned myself to the fact it looked like the Cubs weren't going to be in on the major FA. But seeing the mid tier guys like Hudson, Johnson and Young flying off the board without our involvement is annoying. And seeing Bourjos go to the Cards really stings.

 

There just really isn't enough in left in the mid-tier of the market to give the Cubs a reasonable shot at being a decent ballclub next year. It'd take Kazmir, Haren, and Infante. And smart bench pickups like Kottaras and Sizemore. Plus holding onto Samardzija. And being able to trade Barney+ for a 3 WAR OF. And rebounds/breakouts from Castro and Rizzo. Oh, and the pen needs to magically become awesome.

 

All of that might get us to about 88 wins and a 50/50 shot at a wild card spot.

 

This is going to be a frustrating offseason.

 

I don't know what you're drinking (or smoking), but it's pretty potent stuff.

 

You're right. We just need to bring Hendry back. He can work out a three way deal where we move Vitters, Jackson, Barney, and Lake for Trout and Cabrera. Then we are golden.

 

I guess you're still fixated on Hendry. If you think signing a few mid-tier FAs are going to get us to about 88 wins, then you're drunk, stoned, or crazy.

 

Read it again. Slower. Key off of words like "magically" and the creative use of italics. Report back to us when you grasp what I was actually saying.

[Rob]

I think you're underselling the trade market. Arguello had an article the other day about it being a potentially trade-happy offseason, and not only is the league off to a hot start with Kinsler/Fielder and Bourjos/Freese, but the Cubs seem to match up pretty well with that mindset. They could potentially be moving Samardzija, and they have a lot of players like Bourjos/Freese who another team might have a disparate evaluation or can really use to fill a need on another roster. Most of the potential matches are guys like the mid-tier free agents too, which lessens the blow of a couple of those guys signing this week.

 

Even then, the FA market is hardly barren. Young and Murphy went off the board, but Gutierrez and Granderson are still out there, plus Ellsbury and Choo if they want to consolidate their spending. Johnson and Hudson(not that I wanted him) are gone, but Kazmir, Hughes, and Haren remain, plus Ubaldo and Tanaka if they want to spend it one place.

 

The odds of the Cubs being a playoff contender aren't all that high, but I don't think they've really taken a hit this week. I'm still plenty annoyed that LA just gave away Bourjos to St. Louis though.

 

If I thought for a second that the Cubs are serious bidders on Tanaka, Ellsbury, Choo, or even Ubaldo I'd be feeling a lot less pessimistic right now.

 

What was the last estimate as far as how much payroll room we have to work with though? 15 mil after arb raises or something like that? I keep trying to puzzle my way through a workable solution, but I'm stumped. What potential matches are you looking at in trades? The only guy I could really see us pushing for is Porcello.

[Guest]

If I thought for a second that the Cubs are serious bidders on Tanaka, Ellsbury, Choo, or even Ubaldo I'd be feeling a lot less pessimistic right now.

 

What was the last estimate as far as how much payroll room we have to work with though? 15 mil after arb raises or something like that? I keep trying to puzzle my way through a workable solution, but I'm stumped. What potential matches are you looking at in trades? The only guy I could really see us pushing for is Porcello.

 

There's too many trade targets to mention really, but off the top of my head: Porcello, Anderson, Reddick, Ackley, Maybin, Kemp

 

My point though is not "the Cubs can be playoff contenders with moves X, Y, and Z", my point is that their chances for next year were not changed by a couple of mid-tier FAs signing, most of whom signed because they were bad to horrible in 2013(Murphy, Johnson, Young).

[imb]

is there another peter borjous thats good at baseball or something

[imb]

i mean i dont hate him, i just find it funny that we're griping one day about only targeting bargain bin bounceback candidates because #poortomrickets and then we're crying because we "lost out on" borjous and chris fucken young

[Sammy Sofa]

Both guys repeatedly came up as ideal targets for the Cubs this offseason on this board, so let's not act like it's a bunch of people being disappointed out of nowhere and over nothing.

[imb]

yeah they came up as targets because they're bargain bin guys coming off injuries and shitty seasons, the same thing everyone throws a fit about daily

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We'll find something in the same tier. We're not gonna get completely shut out of the crappy signings that aren't anywhere near the scale the team needs.

[Sammy Sofa]

yeah they came up as targets because they're bargain bin guys coming off injuries and [expletive] seasons, the same thing everyone throws a fit about daily

 

Well, the team is in a position right now where that's apparently that's primary source of what they're going to pick up via FA or trades, so, yeah, it's frustrating when it doesn't pan out with guys a bunch of us would have liked to have seen them get.

 

I know it seems like it's just people like me bitching and overreacting, but actual non-horrible posters wanted these guys, too.

[imb]

I get it, but it's peter borjous and chris young? Im not saying if we had traded garbage for borjous or signed young to a 1-year deal i wouldn't have found a way to get excited about it. But how do people like you decide which of these scrapheap dudes are worth having and which ones are just #poortomrickets screwing us with his tight pockets or whatever

[Sammy Sofa]

I get it, but it's peter borjous and chris young? Im not saying if we had traded garbage for borjous or signed young to a 1-year deal i wouldn't have found a way to get excited about it. But how do people like you decide which of these scrapheap dudes are worth having and which ones are just #poortomrickets screwing us with his tight pockets or whatever

 

I liked that Young was pretty damn good for three seasons before 2013 and that the one time that young Borjous has played anything close to a full season he was a 5+ WAR player. I didn't say anything like this was yet another one of Ricketts's [expletive] ups so much as just disappointing that for different reasons (where Young wanted to play and what was wanted in a trade for Borjous) they didn't match up with the Cubs. Not everything has to be a clown car debacle from the ownership yet again for it to be disappointing.

[mul21]

Where is the supposed $40MM from TV revenue that every club is getting being spent? Surely they can't have allotted that for renovations already. I think there's money to be spent and all the rumors of being broke are smoke screens for a behind the scenes pounce on a few key guys.

 

Or maybe I'm deluding myself.

[davell]

Where is the supposed $40MM from TV revenue that every club is getting being spent? Surely they can't have allotted that for renovations already. I think there's money to be spent and all the rumors of being broke are smoke screens for a behind the scenes pounce on a few key guys.

 

Or maybe I'm deluding myself.

One, its closer to 25 mill, two, not all of it goes directly into the teams pockets, and three, it only offsets the 20ish mill in revenue we lost due to dropping attendance.

[Guest]

But how do people like you decide which of these scrapheap dudes are worth having and which ones are just #poortomrickets screwing us with his tight pockets or whatever

Trick question.

[HoopsCubs]

I was told by one of my sources that the Cubs do not intend to trade Starlin Castro this offseason. The FO accepts that his current value is not on par with his potential ceiling, so they are in no rush to move him despite the rumors (some of which they started when it got out that they were talking to the Mets about him at the trade deadline).

 

That insight is somewhat coupled with what one of the player development guys recently told the source: that's it "a fait accompli" that Javier Baez will have to move to 2B or 3B soon because of his own defensive shortcomings at SS. And while the Cubs know Darwin Barney can play adequate SS, that's not the direction they want to go long term.

 

The source was told to pay close attention to the 2014 draft. The Cubs draft 4th. It is assumed that Carlos Rondon will be taken by Houston with the first pick. The next 3 picks are Miami, the White Sox and the Cubs. If NC State SS Trea Turner is on the board at #4, the Cubs will probably take him as best projected player available despite their need for pitching. If that does occur, the individual talking to the source would not be surprised to see the Cubs deal Castro for pitching at the trading deadline or next offseason because of the belief that Turner will be one of those guys to get to the majors very quickly. If Turner is taken by either the Marlins or White Sox, then the Cubs will probably stick with Castro for longer and either select Jeff Hoffmann, Tyler Kolek or Tyler Beede.

 

Lots of moving parts!

[Guest]

I would bet a lot of money that the Cubs do not trade Castro at the deadline just because they drafted Trea Turner. Believing that requires a lot of things to be true, like Turner becoming a much better prospect than he is at the moment, the front office being absolutely convinced Baez isn't a SS, and the front office having similar feelings about Alcantara or just trading him altogether.

 

More simply, if having a Top 10 SS and another Top 100 SS at AAA is not enough of a logjam to trade Castro, then drafting Trea Turner(who at this point isn't on the level that Bryant was, the same Bryant whose ETA is probably 2 years from his draft day) won't make a difference.

 

EDIT: Maybe even more to the point, the idea of coming up with contingencies based on your #4 overall draft pick that's 6 months and a college season away from happening is kinda absurd.

[Boris]

And lots of incredible future speculation on very fluid possibilities. (in response to hoops)

[HoopsCubs]

I would bet a lot of money that the Cubs do not trade Castro at the deadline just because they drafted Trea Turner. Believing that requires a lot of things to be true, like Turner becoming a much better prospect than he is at the moment, the front office being absolutely convinced Baez isn't a SS, and the front office having similar feelings about Alcantara or just trading him altogether.

 

More simply, if having a Top 10 SS and another Top 100 SS at AAA is not enough of a logjam to trade Castro, then drafting Trea Turner(who at this point isn't on the level that Bryant was, the same Bryant whose ETA is probably 2 years from his draft day) won't make a difference.

 

EDIT: Maybe even more to the point, the idea of coming up with contingencies based on your #4 overall draft pick that's 6 months and a college season away from happening is kinda absurd.

 

Absolutely nothing absurd about exploring different scenarios on paper and assigning weighted probablities to see what decisions bubble up. Scenario planning is a tool used by many in and out of baseball.

[imb]

any scenario that ends with us drafting trea turner instead of hoffman, outside of hoffman being dead, is preposterous

[HoopsCubs]

any scenario that ends with us drafting trea turner instead of hoffman, outside of hoffman being dead, is preposterous

 

or outside of hoffman being drafted by miami or the white sox.

 

The Cubs don't think Hoffman will fall to them at #4 based on today's thinking.

[Guest]

I would bet a lot of money that the Cubs do not trade Castro at the deadline just because they drafted Trea Turner. Believing that requires a lot of things to be true, like Turner becoming a much better prospect than he is at the moment, the front office being absolutely convinced Baez isn't a SS, and the front office having similar feelings about Alcantara or just trading him altogether.

 

More simply, if having a Top 10 SS and another Top 100 SS at AAA is not enough of a logjam to trade Castro, then drafting Trea Turner(who at this point isn't on the level that Bryant was, the same Bryant whose ETA is probably 2 years from his draft day) won't make a difference.

 

EDIT: Maybe even more to the point, the idea of coming up with contingencies based on your #4 overall draft pick that's 6 months and a college season away from happening is kinda absurd.

 

Absolutely nothing absurd about exploring different scenarios on paper and assigning weighted probablities to see what decisions bubble up. Scenario planning is a tool used by many in and out of baseball.

 

At a certain point it becomes useless because there's too many decisions in between, especially when some of those decisions aren't in your control. The odds are overwhelming that Turner gets hurt or isn't worth drafting at #4, or that he gets picked before #4, or that he busts before reaching MLB, or that Castro takes off and renders himself untradeable, or any number of other things that can come up before you have to make a Castro/Turner decision that it's pointless to consider as anything besides a flight of fancy for you or I on a message board.

 

Contingencies are fine, and scenario planning is smart. Scenario planning based on who you draft at #4 six months from now is pointless.

[Guest]

Evan Grant from the Dallas Morning news is reporting that McCann is close to signing with the Yankees. If true, I would guess either that they don't care about the luxury tax, bringing back Cano, or both.

 

 

 

As a quick sidebar, I'd be interested to see how people are interested in having transaction threads go this offseason. Right now it seems like everything is getting consolidated in a very small number of threads, which isn't the greatest when there's multiple news items that come up. Any suggestions?