Offseason Rumors

[Guest]

No.

[Banedon]

After all of these Castro rumors, we had better trade him because I'm sure the rumors are really going to affect his confidence. Going from signing a long-term committment and hiring a Spanish speaking manager to seeing your name in trade rumors has to mess with the confidence level of a young player oming off a bad season.

 

Yeah, his confidence was so high before this...you really hate to mess with success!

[TheDude]

I still don't get trading Castro this off-season. One bounce-back year and his value is almost completely restored. One more flat year and his value is largely unchanged. There is no urgency to move him for the 2014 season, so I really hope they don't sell low because it makes no sense to do so.

Maybe the general feeling around the league is that Castro is still a very good asset/will be a very good to elite player and Theo/Jed are gauging the interest just to see what they could get. Maybe they feel Castro is trending downward and no longer a very good asset/the chances of him becoming very good or elite aren't all that great and they would be willing to sell him off high while some teams still really value him.

If I'm a GM anywhere other than the north side, then I'm looking to buy low. It's a no-brainer to check in and gauge interest after 2013 if you think you can acquire him at a huge discount. Most teams won't get very far in the 2014 off-season if he has a bounce back 3 or 4 WAR season in 2014.

 

It has to be in the Cubs best interest to see if he can restore value especially since 2014 isn't a special year in the Cubs timeline. I don't want to imagine what Cubs fans will do if he is traded at depressed value for non-elite minor league talent and then Castro remembers he can be a stud, but for a different team.

[CubColtPacer]

I still don't get trading Castro this off-season. One bounce-back year and his value is almost completely restored. One more flat year and his value is largely unchanged. There is no urgency to move him for the 2014 season, so I really hope they don't sell low because it makes no sense to do so.

Maybe the general feeling around the league is that Castro is still a very good asset/will be a very good to elite player and Theo/Jed are gauging the interest just to see what they could get. Maybe they feel Castro is trending downward and no longer a very good asset/the chances of him becoming very good or elite aren't all that great and they would be willing to sell him off high while some teams still really value him.

If I'm a GM anywhere other than the north side, then I'm looking to buy low. It's a no-brainer to check in and gauge interest after 2013 if you think you can acquire him at a huge discount. Most teams won't get very far in the 2014 off-season if he has a bounce back 3 or 4 WAR season in 2014.

 

It has to be in the Cubs best interest to see if he can restore value especially since 2014 isn't a special year in the Cubs timeline. I don't want to imagine what Cubs fans will do if he is traded at depressed value for non-elite minor league talent and then Castro remembers he can be a stud, but for a different team.

 

I think that assumes front offices are acting more on emotion than reason. Castro still has value around the league. Some teams probably think his chances for a bounceback are less than the Cubs do. The Cubs are looking around for the reasonable chance that some teams think more of him than the Cubs do.

 

Or consider this way. Let's say the Cubs think his chances of bouncing back are 50/50, and are looking for a price that would reflect more like a 60% chance of bouncing back. A team out there is high on Castro and thinks the percentages are more like 80/20. Sure, they may try to lowball the Cubs initially because of a perceived thought that the Cubs might just be through with him. But if the Cubs won't budge, teams will jump on the price because it's still a good deal for them.

 

And I definitely don't agree with the thought that Castro's value is low enough that another bad season wouldn't lower it further. Right now there is that hope as you said that 2014 will be a better year. Another bad year, and that hope diminishes and so does his value.

[Cubswin11]

I still don't get trading Castro this off-season. One bounce-back year and his value is almost completely restored. One more flat year and his value is largely unchanged. There is no urgency to move him for the 2014 season, so I really hope they don't sell low because it makes no sense to do so.

Maybe the general feeling around the league is that Castro is still a very good asset/will be a very good to elite player and Theo/Jed are gauging the interest just to see what they could get. Maybe they feel Castro is trending downward and no longer a very good asset/the chances of him becoming very good or elite aren't all that great and they would be willing to sell him off high while some teams still really value him.

If I'm a GM anywhere other than the north side, then I'm looking to buy low. It's a no-brainer to check in and gauge interest after 2013 if you think you can acquire him at a huge discount. Most teams won't get very far in the 2014 off-season if he has a bounce back 3 or 4 WAR season in 2014.

 

It has to be in the Cubs best interest to see if he can restore value especially since 2014 isn't a special year in the Cubs timeline. I don't want to imagine what Cubs fans will do if he is traded at depressed value for non-elite minor league talent and then Castro remembers he can be a stud, but for a different team.

Theo and Jed aren't stupid and they aren't going to Castro at a huge discount and take back a poo-poo platter of minor leaguers. Castro isn't getting moved without getting significant pieces back. They know they are better off keeping him if all they can get are a few meh prospects (both because of the bounce back potential and he isn't owed anything outrageous monetarily).

 

The only way it makes sense that they are actively shopping him is because they are finding a team(s) around the league are valuing him much more than they do and they feel the can get a significant return back. It makes no sense to sell off on Castro now for marginal talent, like you are saying, when he is still young and has potential to still be elite and the investment into him moving forward isn't inhibitive that it couldn't be eaten if he absolutely busts.

[HoopsCubs]

Orioles, Mets and Pirates have checked into Nate Schierholtz's availability.

[TheDude]

I think that assumes front offices are acting more on emotion than reason. Castro still has value around the league. Some teams probably think his chances for a bounceback are less than the Cubs do. The Cubs are looking around for the reasonable chance that some teams think more of him than the Cubs do.

Emotion isn't really a factor. I'm working more off of demonstrated natural human behavior. Even with very logical and reasonable folks, it's been shown consistently in psychological studies that all people naturally place a disproportionate weight on recent results rather than over an entire sample when formulating conclusions. Decision makers and executives are not immune, in any industry. You hope your team of decision makers is talented enough to keep this in check. In baseball it's actually worse than other industries because you sometimes don't have a team of decision makers, you have one bloated GM or an unqualified overbearing owner.

 

And therefore there are numerous examples in baseball every year where decisions have been made largely on recent results (or excluding recent results) rather than using a full sample or even an accepted unfiltered short sample, like 3 years. You can slap whatever baseball cliche you want to justify the decision because that's what we do as a people. You can look at Carlos Gonzalez over the last 3 years and come to just about any conclusion you want at various points in that sample.

 

Regardless of where you stand in your personal conclusion of Castro (he's broken to he just needs to work it out at the plate), the value is too depressed right now to consider a trade, even on the optimistic side. The names being discussed this off-season as trade value compared to the names in 2011 or 2012 off-seasons, or compared to 2014 off-season in a strong bounce-back year are dramatically different. Even if you find a partner that is optimistic on Castro and giving optimistic trade value, it's still not worth it for me if I'm the decision maker. Not for a 24 year old only a year removed from being a 'build your franchise around' player.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

[HoopsCubs]

Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals have checked into Darwin Barney's availability.

[Backtobanks]

After all of these Castro rumors, we had better trade him because I'm sure the rumors are really going to affect his confidence. Going from signing a long-term committment and hiring a Spanish speaking manager to seeing your name in trade rumors has to mess with the confidence level of a young player oming off a bad season.

 

Yeah, his confidence was so high before this...you really hate to mess with success!

 

His confidence level might not be high before this, but this certainly isn't going to help his confidence. Let's not forget that he's still very young and most of his problems seem to be mental and not physical.

[jersey cubs fan]

After all of these Castro rumors, we had better trade him because I'm sure the rumors are really going to affect his confidence. Going from signing a long-term committment and hiring a Spanish speaking manager to seeing your name in trade rumors has to mess with the confidence level of a young player oming off a bad season.

 

Yeah, his confidence was so high before this...you really hate to mess with success!

 

His confidence level might not be high before this, but this certainly isn't going to help his confidence. Let's not forget that he's still very young and most of his problems seem to be mental and not physical.

 

I'm not sure why we'd assume his problems are mental.

[WrigleyField 22]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

LOL WUT

 

In other words, who knows what will happen. Just do whatever.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

LOL WUT

 

In other words, who knows what will happen. Just do whatever.

 

http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/09/30/loss-aversion-and-the-stock-ma/

 

Much of people's reluctance to trade Castro comes from this phenomenon.

[Rob]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

 

Of course, given what we know about his talent level, aging curves, and the role of organizational philosophy in his troubles betting on at least a partial bounceback is perfectly reasonable.

 

Don't get me wrong, if the Mariners go crazy and offer Seager and Walker we should jump on that in a heartbeat. But I don't see anybody ponying up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

 

Of course, given what we know about his talent level, aging curves, and the role of organizational philosophy in his troubles betting on at least a partial bounceback is perfectly reasonable.

 

Don't get me wrong, if the Mariners go crazy and offer Seager and Walker we should jump on that in a heartbeat. But I don't see anybody ponying up.

 

I agree, and I think that bounceback should be priced in if we decide to trade him.

 

I mean, if we weren't pricing in a bounceback, we'd just waive him because he was subreplacement last year.

[WrigleyField 22]

But your use of the word another really makes me believe your just picking sides. Its true that he's more likely to rebound than regress, no?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But your use of the word another really makes me believe your just picking sides. Its true that he's more likely to rebound than regress, no?

 

Yes, and I think that should have little to nothing to do with whether or not we decide to trade him, because other teams know that and it's already priced in to a large degree.

 

As someone said higher up, the difference in our evaluation of the likelihood of a rebound vs. other teams' evaluation of the likelihood will likely inform our decision. But not just the literal fact that he'll likely rebound, because duh.

[WrigleyField 22]

And those teams also know we know that so like, wouldn't they compensate in their offer? I mean you could go in circles with this.

 

It's really rudimentary, but Baseball reference tells me he could be this decade's Edgar Renteria, and I know thats like 1/2 of what many expected circa 2011, but its still really worth while what we're paying him, especially over- say - more prospects. He showed a pretty elite skill set for some time that I'm inclined to believe makes him a pretty good bet over a prospect or a sure bet. The downside is $11M plus $1M buyout in 2019. Thats like Nate Schierholtz risk in today's money.

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay re-reading the thread, I missed a post or two while processing my response, but they guy who questions the $5M/win WAR value and tells everyone our expectations of this free agent market are going to be way undervalued really shouldn't be the guy even playing the devils advocate pointing out the human behavior fallacies that would support trading Castro. And I say that as someone who probably appreciates your role on this board more than most, Kyle.

[Backtobanks]

After all of these Castro rumors, we had better trade him because I'm sure the rumors are really going to affect his confidence. Going from signing a long-term committment and hiring a Spanish speaking manager to seeing your name in trade rumors has to mess with the confidence level of a young player oming off a bad season.

 

Yeah, his confidence was so high before this...you really hate to mess with success!

 

His confidence level might not be high before this, but this certainly isn't going to help his confidence. Let's not forget that he's still very young and most of his problems seem to be mental and not physical.

 

I'm not sure why we'd assume his problems are mental.

 

Well he's had 4 years of well-documented mental lapses, has struggled with being moved around in the lineup, and has been labeled as a franchise player in his early 20's. Maybe he has physical problems too, but not anything that has been documented.

[Guest]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

LOL WUT

 

In other words, who knows what will happen. Just do whatever.

 

http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/09/30/loss-aversion-and-the-stock-ma/

 

Much of people's reluctance to trade Castro comes from this phenomenon.

Nope.

[Beer Kaese]

Another well-documented human behavior is a reluctance to lock in losses by selling when you should, hoping for a bouneback to previously established values that may never come.

LOL WUT

 

In other words, who knows what will happen. Just do whatever.

 

http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/09/30/loss-aversion-and-the-stock-ma/

 

Much of people's reluctance to trade Castro comes from this phenomenon.

Nope.

 

I think Kyle's correct. If we use his example and say we owned shares of Industrial Widgets and Tech Phone we would have found that IW declined in value by a greater % than TP. If we found ourselves in need of cash, we would be more inclined to sell shares of TP assuming IW has a greater amount of value to recover. A real life example is, after the dust settled on 9-11, I called my broker and asked how much Airline shares were down. I decided to put some idol cash to work for 9 days and put some money in my pocket. As Nathan Rothschild said, the best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets. The only fear one can legitimately have is that Theo and Jed panic and sell. I have a higher opinion of them than that. They may sell but not because they are in a panic.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/free-agency-heats-epstein-pleased-cubs-progress

 

Our FA targets referenced either directly or indirectly in interview with Epstein:

 

1) A Scott Baker-level starting pitcher

2) A reliever who will give us a discount for being named our "closer"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Both PSD insiders today agreeing that what they are hearing is the Cubs may not hit $90m in payroll.

[Sammy Sofa]

So the only question that remains is whether Tom Ricketts is the lovable, Charlie Chaplin-esque type of tramp or the scary, stab you in the eyeball under the train bridge type of hobo.